The Rebound May Be Merely a Technical Correction; the $1,800 Area Remains a Key Zone for Bearish Positioning

Summary:

The cryptocurrency market has staged a short-term technical rebound, but the broader structure remains bearish. Although easing expectations surrounding Middle East tensions and improving risk sentiment have supported several altcoins, Ethereum continues to trade below its major moving averages.

SELL ETH-USDT

EXP

TRADING

1641.23

Entry Price

1300.00

2200.00

1679.19 +5.63 +0.34%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1300.00

Exit Price

1641.23

Entry Price

2200.00

Fundamentals

Over the past 24 hours, the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has risen approximately 0.9% to $2.2 trillion, with most of the gains concentrated in several popular altcoins. However, from a broader perspective, the rally appears to be a technical rebound around the 200-week moving average rather than the beginning of a new bull market.

Ethereum recorded one of its largest weekly declines of 2026 last week, falling more than 20% from above $2,000 to a low near $1,505, extending the downtrend that has been in place since the second week of May.

While the selloff was triggered by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and renewed expectations of higher interest rates, on-chain data does not indicate panic selling in the spot market. Exchange net flows have remained relatively stable, and both retail and whale wallet balances have shown only limited changes. This suggests that the recent decline was driven primarily by leveraged liquidations and derivatives market selling rather than large-scale exits by long-term holders.

From a capital flow perspective, spot-market selling pressure remains relatively moderate, indicating that the market is undergoing a deleveraging process rather than experiencing a systemic loss of confidence. This has created conditions for a short-term technical rebound, but not yet for a sustainable trend reversal.

The Rebound May Be Merely a Technical Correction; the $1,800 Area Remains a Key Zone for Bearish Positioning_1

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, Ethereum remains firmly entrenched in a downtrend. Price continues to trade below the 20-day, 50-day, and 100-day moving averages. The 20-day moving average is currently located near $1,660, while the 50-day and 100-day moving averages continue to cap upside potential, maintaining a classic bearish alignment.

Momentum indicators also remain weak. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently fell below the 30 oversold threshold, while the Stochastic Oscillator remains near depressed levels, suggesting the market may require a short-term recovery. However, as long as the primary trend remains intact, such oversold rebounds are more likely to develop into consolidation or corrective rallies rather than a sustained bullish recovery.

On the upside, initial resistance is located at $1,741, followed by a dense resistance zone between $1,806 and $1,909. Should the rebound extend further, the $2,020 area will serve as a critical trend-defining level, while the 50-day moving average near $2,045 is expected to provide stronger resistance. Beyond that, attention should shift to resistance around $2,108 and the 100-day moving average near $2,187.

On the downside, $1,505 marks the recent swing low. A break below this level could expose further downside toward the key support zones at $1,385 and $1,349.

Overall, Ethereum remains in a medium-term bearish trend unless price can reclaim and hold above $2,020 while breaking through major moving-average resistance. The current rebound appears more consistent with a technical recovery following an oversold decline. If bullish momentum begins to fade near the $1,800 area, it could present an attractive opportunity for traders seeking to establish short positions in line with the prevailing trend.

Trading Recommendation

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1800

Target Price: 1300

Stop Loss: 2200

Valid Until: 2026-07-10 23:55

Key Support Levels: 1505, 1385, 1349

Key Resistance Levels: 1750, 1803, 1932

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