The Middle East powder keg remains a hidden killer of gold and silver.

Winkelmann

Commodity

Summary:

Tensions remain high in the Middle East, and soaring oil prices could still cause silver prices to pull back.

SELL XAGUSD

Close Time

CLOSED

64.985

Entry Price

61.700

67.500

61.064 +0.678 +1.12%

189.3

Pips

Profit

61.700

63.092

Exit Price

64.985

Entry Price

67.500

Fundamentals

Recently, gold and silver prices have both surged, driven by weak US employment data, slowing inflation data, and expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike. The sharp rise has caught the market's attention.

However, the market's temporary optimism cannot mask its cautious sentiment regarding the situation in the Middle East and the Federal Reserve's policies, especially the potential for inflationary panic triggered by soaring oil prices. The previous ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran has expired, with Iran threatening a full-scale offensive, to which the US has responded equally strongly. Trump stated that Iran "should raise the white flag and surrender," and threatened to "bomb them to pieces" if Oman interferes. The protracted and complex agreement between Iran and Oman further exacerbates the tense situation in the Strait of Hormuz.

Oil prices are still rising, and inflation remains a concern. If oil prices continue to rise to $90-100 or even higher, it will exacerbate inflationary pressures, leading to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, which in turn will threaten the rise in gold and silver prices.

Technical aspects

The Middle East powder keg remains a hidden killer of gold and silver_1

Looking at the 4-hour chart, XAGUSD's upward momentum has paused after breaking through, and it is currently fluctuating at a relatively high level. It has failed to break through the 66.7 level three times in a row, forming obvious resistance. In the short term, it may turn to a further pullback.

In terms of trading strategy, you can try shorting near 65.0, with a target of around 61.5 and a stop loss above 67.0.

Trading advice

Trading direction: Short

Entry slots: 65.0

Target price: 61.7

Stop-loss level: 67.5

Downside support levels: 63.5/61.5

Upward resistance levels: 66.7/67.0

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