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Trending
SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6816.55
6816.55
6816.55
6861.30
6801.50
-10.86
-0.16%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
48412.31
48412.31
48412.31
48679.14
48283.27
-45.73
-0.09%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23059.55
23059.55
23059.55
23345.56
23012.00
-135.61
-0.58%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
97.920
98.000
97.920
98.070
97.740
-0.030
-0.03%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.17487
1.17496
1.17487
1.17686
1.17262
+0.00093
+ 0.08%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33710
1.33719
1.33710
1.34014
1.33546
+0.00003
0.00%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4306.83
4307.27
4306.83
4350.16
4285.08
+7.44
+ 0.17%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
56.516
56.546
56.516
57.601
56.233
-0.717
-1.25%
--
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- Russia-Ukraine Conflict
- Middle East Flashpoint
Exercise Caution Regarding Potential Over-Crowding In Long Positions as Double Top Pattern Has Formed
Summary:
Gold continues to benefit from safe-haven demand amid tariff trade wars and geopolitical tensions, but profit-taking has complicated its short-term trajectory, necessitating caution when considering buying at the uptrend.
CLOSED
2906.80
Entry Price
2850.00
TP
2916.00
SL
4306.83 +7.44 +0.17%
92.0
Pips
Loss
2850.00
TP
2916.05
Exit Price
2906.80
Entry Price
2916.00
SL
Fundamentals
Over the past period, gold prices have surged significantly, driven by safe-haven demand amidst the backdrop of Trump's tariff policies and ensuing geopolitical uncertainties, despite the Federal Reserve's tempered expectations for interest rate cuts, thus exceeding market forecasts. The market had anticipated a more moderate increase in gold prices in 2025 compared to 2024. However, since the beginning of the new year, gold prices have deviated further from traditional pricing logic, disregarding the rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields. Market sentiment has completely dominated the gold market, and the rapid increase in gold prices has made investors hesitant to adopt a bearish stance.
It is noteworthy that gold experienced profit-taking sell-offs last Friday, which has complicated the short-term price movements, leading to increased buyer caution. Nevertheless, the long-term bullish rationale for gold remains unchanged, and buying on dips is still viable. However, the current gold price has partially factored in the uncertainties of Trump's policies. Furthermore, developments in the Russia-Ukraine situation, potentially influenced by Trump towards a peaceful ceasefire, could impact market sentiment. Consequently, the upward trajectory of gold prices may not be as steady and smooth as anticipated.
Technical Analysis
In the 4H timeframe, the XAUUSD has recently formed a potential double top pattern around the 2940 level. Although short-term support was found at the neckline of 2880, leading to a rebound, the short-term technical overbought condition has only been temporarily alleviated. A failure to surpass 2910 could trigger a further correction. Moreover, the previous aggressive dip-buying has resulted in an overcrowded long position, making the market susceptible to significant volatility upon any adverse news. The potential for heightened volatility near the 3000 resistance level should not be overlooked.
It is recommended to go short near the 2912 resistance trendline during gold price rebound, with a target set around 2850 and a stop-loss above 2915.
Trading Recommendations
Trading Direction: Sell
Entry Price: 2912
Target Price: 2850
Stop Loss: 2916
Support: 2850/2880
Resistance: 2940/2912
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