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COPPER: Rapid De-Stocking Support Copper Prices
Summary:
Clean energy pushes up future copper demand, with the world set to face another copper shortage in the future.
CLOSED
8900.000
ENTRY
9250.000
TGT
8650.000
SL
8314.945 -7.800 -0.09%
33395
Points
Profit
8650.000
SL
8933.395
CLOSING
8900.000
ENTRY
9250.000
TGT
Fundamentals
Macroscopically: First Citizens Bank announced yesterday that it had acquired Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), worth $72 billion, at a discount of $16.5 billion, while the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) shared some of the losses. More importantly, the acquisition deal had an unusual clause attached: "The FDIC will provide a $70 billion line of credit to protect against liquidity needs arising from the acquisition of SVB's business over the next two years". This part of the FDIC's guarantee eased the market's worry about the banking system.
Inventory: On March 24th, SMM's social stocks of copper cathodes in China were 200,000 tons, down 26,200 tons week-on-week (WoW). The bonded stocks were 191,800 tons, down 0.88 million tons WoW, while the LME copper stocks were 72,700 tons, down 0.20 million tons WoW. Besides, on March 23rd, COMEX copper stocks were 14,600 short tons, down 0.05 million short tons WoW. Global visible stocks were 477,700 tons, down 37,500 tons WoW.
News: Mining, processing and concentrate transportation at the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru have returned to full capacity. MMR announced in the HKSE on the 13th of this month that concentrate transportation at the Las Bambas copper mine resumed operations on March 11th (Peruvian time) and mine operations are returning to full production.
Generally: The macro-risk aversion sentiment eased, and the restrictions on copper prices significantly reduced, while external uncertainties are still the biggest constraints on copper prices. However, global copper inventories fell rapidly to the lowest seasonal level since 2008 in recent weeks, replicating last year's low inventory status. Additionally, with the passing of the pandemic and the ending of the US interest rate hike, copper demand will grow better than last year. If Asian demand keeps growing, copper inventories have almost no buffer space in the future, and the current copper supply is at full capacity with limited space to grow. As external uncertainty fades, the copper price will surge quickly and may break through the highs of March last year.
Technical Analysis
Regarding the daily chart, copper stabilized and rebounded continuously from the bottom of the channel after gaining support. Now, the copper price has broken through the upper edge of the original channel, with an oscillating horizontal price movement at 9,000, aiming for a new channel. Moreover, MACD forms a golden cross and continues to expand near the 0-axis, indicating a turn into a bullish momentum in the near term. With the accumulation of oscillation, the resistance above could be broken, and the first resistance will be near 9100 while the next near 9250. For aggressive traders, it is recommended to go long at lows. 
Trading Recommendations
Trading direction: Long
Entry price: 8900
Target price: 9250
Stop loss: 8650
Support: 8850/8650
Resistance: 9100/9250
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