Oil prices experienced a short-term rebound today, prompted by geopolitical developments—specifically, U.S. interdiction of oil shipments near Venezuela and intensified enforcement against the "shadow fleet," which heightened market sensitivity to localized supply disruptions; WTI responded immediately with gains. However, such geopolitical shocks tend to be temporary—fundamentally, supply fundamentals remain robust, with inventories slowly declining. Although the International Energy Agency revised demand forecasts upward this month, their overall assessment does not fully eliminate the risk of oversupply in the coming year; additionally, OPEC+ has reaffirmed its current production framework, indicating no short-term commitment to significant production cuts to support prices. U.S. crude oil inventories have shown only marginal fluctuations recently, with physical inventory draws insufficient to support a sustained price rally.

In summary, geopolitical news induces short-term volatility, but medium-term supply-demand dynamics and inventory data pose stronger downward pressures on oil prices.

In the 1D timeframe, WTI's candlestick pattern exhibits a clear downward channel, with SMA systems—both short-term and medium-term—aligning in a bearish configuration, indicating a strong continuation of the downtrend and a higher likelihood of sustained decline in the near term.

In the 4H timeframe, WTI broke below the US$55.00 support level last week and briefly found support at the April low of US$54.75. The recent trading sessions have seen a rebound, with WTI currently testing resistance at US$57.20. It remains below the MA60, creating a confluence of resistance levels that heightens short-term upward pressure.

Currently, if WTI is unable to convincingly break above the US$57.20 resistance, the downtrend may continue, with potential further testing of the support at US$54.75 and even a possibility of breaching this level to accelerate the decline. Conversely, a successful breakout above US$57.20 could open the path for an upward extension toward the US$58.30 - US$60.00.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 57.20

Target Price: 52.80

Stop Loss: 59.10

Valid Until: January 5, 2026 23:00:00

Support: 55.70, 54.75

Resistance: 57.20, 58.15

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to maintain an upward trend as markets anticipate upcoming rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which reduces the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. This expectation provides strong support for the bullish momentum. In addition, global economic and geopolitical uncertainties are driving investors toward safe-haven assets, helping XAU/USD remain resilient even during short-term technical rebounds of the U.S. dollar.

Central banks are also increasing their gold reserves, adding long-term demand while supply growth remains limited. However, gold may face short-term corrections if the USD strengthens on positive U.S. economic data or if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance than expected.

Overall, fundamental factors still lean toward a bullish outlook for XAU/USD, supported by lower expected interest rates, safe-haven flows, and continued institutional buying. Traders should remain cautious of key U.S. data releases, as they can trigger sharp volatility and temporary pullbacks in gold prices

This morning, gold surged above the previous resistance area around 4385, breaking past the prior swing highs and triggering strong bullish sentiment. The breakout has encouraged sidelined traders to jump back into the market, increasing overall market participation.

However, despite the upward move, the current price zone does not offer a clear profit-taking structure. Therefore, traders should carefully watch for a potential false breakout. A downside break back below 4385 may signal a shift in momentum and create an opportunity to sell.

Entry: 4384

Take Profit: 4350

Stop Loss: 4390

Support: 4350 / 4330

Resistance: 4420 / 4450

Supported by the inflation backdrop, at the end of its two-day policy meeting, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted unanimously — as widely expected — to raise the short-term interest rate from 0.5% to 0.75%. This marks the first rate hike since January this year and pushes rates to their highest level since 1995, signaling Japan's further move away from prolonged ultra-loose monetary policy. The BoJ stated in its announcement that recent data and survey results suggest a mechanism whereby wages and inflation rise moderately in tandem is likely to persist. With real interest rates still significantly low, if economic and price outlooks are realized, the bank will continue advancing the process of raising rates. Governor Kazuo Ueda emphasized in his post-meeting remarks that the pace and timing of future hikes will depend on how the economy responds to each policy adjustment. If wage growth expands further, the BoJ may continue raising rates, but it gave no clear guidance on specific timing or the number of hikes. This relatively cautious stance led the yen to weaken after the decision was announced; USD/JPY briefly rose to a one-month high, breaking above the 157 level. Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield jumped to a 26-year high following the rate hike. The market believes the rate increase itself has been fully priced in, with the real focus being whether the BoJ will provide clearer, more hawkish forward guidance in the future. Several analysts noted that while the statement appeared slightly optimistic, the overall tone remained cautious and lacked a clear commitment to a rate hike path, leading markets to react in a "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" manner. Some view holds that as long as real interest rates remain deeply negative, the BoJ still has room to raise rates, but the pace may be slow and highly dependent on sustained wage growth and whether inflation proves resilient.

On December 19th, White House Economic Advisor Kevin Hassett stated that President Trump's assessment that inflation is at a low level is correct, despite official data, public opinion, and the views of most economists disagreeing. Hassett argued that the commonly used year-on-year inflation measure has flaws, and a more reasonable approach is to observe three-month moving average price pressures. According to this metric, inflation is not significantly above the Fed's 2% target but is actually below it, which is how the president views the inflation situation. A government report released earlier showed that the November Consumer Price Index rose 2.7% year-on-year, down from 3.0% in September. The data was delayed due to the government shutdown. Although inflation has eased, it remains above the Fed's target, and many Fed officials continue to worry about elevated price pressures; some even oppose rate cuts, citing persistent inflation risks and the possibility that Trump's tariff policies could push prices higher. Trump has long advocated for lower interest rates, even though such moves might further intensify price pressures. Facing low approval ratings for his economic policies, he insists inflation is easing and says he is rapidly bringing down high prices. Also on December 19th, New York Fed President John Williams said there is currently no urgent need to cut borrowing costs again following last week's Fed rate cut. He believes the current rate level has placed monetary policy in a fairly favorable position. Williams pointed out that the Fed's core goal is to bring inflation back to the 2% target while supporting the labor market, and within this balancing framework, the current rate policy is generally appropriate. He also noted that key inflation and employment data resumed publication after the recent government shutdown ended, but showed no substantive changes, while some technical issues have added complexity to interpreting the data.

Interpreted by the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands have narrowed and flattened, with moving averages running sideways. Last Friday saw a large bullish candle break above the Bollinger Upper Band, confirming a short-term return to an uptrend. If prices can sustain above 157, there is a high probability of testing 158 or 160 again. MACD formed a golden cross, with the MACD and Signal lines pulling back near the zero axis, indicating the correction phase has ended. RSI stands at 60, reflecting strong bullish sentiment, while support levels lie at 157 and 156.1. Based on the weekly chart, Bollinger Bands are widening upward, moving averages are diverging higher, and the bullish trend remains intact. After a golden cross, the MACD and signal lines returned above the zero axis, with price oscillating upward along the EMA12 — a sign of strong upward momentum. RSI is at 69, showing investors are predominantly in buying mode. Buying at lows is strongly recommended.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 157.3

Target price: 160

Stop loss: 155

Support: 154.7/153.2/150

Resistance: 158/158.8/160

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu plans to meet with President Trump in the U.S. later this month to discuss the escalating threat posed by Iran’s accelerated ballistics missile program and to propose a new round of military operations involving U.S. participation. Such intermittent escalations of geopolitical tensions are expected to continue providing short-term safe-haven support for gold prices. On Sunday, officials informed Reuters that the U.S. is still tracking a third oil tanker near Venezuela, while U.S. President Donald Trump has intensified his oil embargo against Nicolás Maduro's regime. As of December 19, holdings in the world’s largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, declined by 0.57 tons to 1,052.54 tons, indicating some investors are taking partial profits amid high gold prices. Meanwhile, TD Securities’ latest commodities outlook indicates that, with the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle beginning, prolonged dollar depreciation pressures, structural supply constraints, and diverse demand from central banks and private sectors, gold prices could break through US$4,400 per ounce and reach new highs by the first half of 2025. The institution highlights that, supported by declining interest rates, a steepening yield curve, and potential concerns over the Federal Reserve’s policy independence, the likelihood of a significant correction in gold prices next year remains relatively low.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Federal Reserve cut in January is only 19.9%, despite the fact that the Fed has previously reduced interest rates by 0.25 percentage points in each of the last three meetings. The University of Michigan's final December consumer sentiment index was revised downward from a preliminary reading of 53.3 to 52.9, whereas economists had anticipated an upward revision to 53.4. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack stated on Sunday that monetary policy is currently in a neutral stance and she plans to assess the impact of the 75-basis-point rate cut in the first quarter. Trading activity remains subdued as traders may be locking in gains ahead of the long holiday, potentially limiting gains in precious metals. The Chicago Fed's national activity index report for September will be released later Monday, with the preliminary Q3 US GDP figures set to be the main focus on Tuesday.

In the 1H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are opening upward, and the SMAs are diverging, indicating that the bullish trend remains intact. The candlestick exhibits a long upper shadow, suggesting significant short-term resistance above. After the MACD formed a golden cross, underlying upward momentum has not weakened, and there is potential for the price to rise again toward 4410. The RSI stands at 79, indicating an overbought market, with support levels at 4377 and 4350. In the 1D timeframe, the price is strongly ascending along the upper Bollinger Band, and as long as it does not fall below the EMA12, the overall uptrend remains unchanged. In the short term, closely monitor whether there is a strong breakout above the trend channel at 4410; if so, a rise toward 4430-4450 is likely. Conversely, if resistance causes a pullback, the price may decline toward 4300 and 4130. Simultaneously, with an RSI of 77, the market remains overbought. It is recommended to go short before going long.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 4410

Target Price: 4100

Stop Loss: 4500

Support: 4200, 4100, 3800

Resistance: 4450, 4500, 5000

During the European session on Friday, the GBPJPY pair once again attracted buying interest, preventing a pullback from the level slightly above the 209.00 mark (a new high since August 2008) seen at the end of the previous trading day. After the highly anticipated Bank of Japan's (BOJ) decision was announced, the spot price maintained its strong intra-day gains, breaking through the 210.00 mark with a 1% increase on the day.

As widely expected by the market, the BOJ raised its policy interest rate by 25 basis points to 0.75%, marking another step forward in its gradual normalization process. Despite the rate hike, the BOJ emphasized that financial conditions remain highly accommodative and real interest rates are still "significantly negative".

In its statement, the BOJ reiterated its tightening policy bias. The central bank indicated that it would "continue to raise the policy interest rate" if the outlook depicted in the October 2025 "Outlook Report" is realized. Policymakers also expressed that they are "increasingly confident" about the likelihood of achieving this outlook.

At the post-meeting press conference, Kazuo Ueda stressed that future adjustments will depend on the latest data regarding the economy, prices, and financial conditions, with policy decisions being reassessed at each meeting rather than following a preset path. Regarding the neutral interest rate, Ueda acknowledged significant uncertainty. He stated that the current estimate is within a wide range and they will assess the economy's and prices' response to each interest rate change. "If necessary, we will attempt to make a new estimate of Japan's neutral interest rate, but I don't think it will help us narrow the range significantly," he added. So far, market participants are not entirely convinced by BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda's remarks. Ueda remains skeptical about the possibility of another "counterattack" by the Japanese government. The BOJ has won the first round today, but the threshold for the next rate hike will be higher than this time. Ueda has left the door open for it, but he hasn't been overly firm or explicit about really wanting to stick to another rate hike in March. For now, "data dependency" seems to be the best information they can offer.

The GBPJPY pair has resumed its upward trend after breaking through 208.92, with intra-day movements heading back in an upward direction. The next target is 211.98, which is the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 199.04 to 205.30 range. On the downside, if the support at 207.94 is breached, intra-day movements will turn to a sideways consolidation.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 210.00

Target Price: 215.75

Stop Loss: 208.00

Valid Until: 05 Jan 2026, 23:55:00

Support: 209.81/209.29/208.21

Resistance Levels: 211.98/212.82/215.10

Precious metals prices edged lower due to partial profit-taking and the unwinding of long positions by short-term futures traders. Nevertheless, given that the U.S. consumer price index (CPI) inflation unexpectedly retreated in November, market expectations for further Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are growing, which may limit gold's potential downside. Lower interest rates can reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold, thereby supporting its price. In addition, geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, combined with strong industrial and investment demand, may provide some support for safe-haven assets like gold. Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust — the world's largest gold ETF — remained unchanged at 1,052.54 tons, indicating institutional sentiment remains in a wait-and-see mode. Goldman Sachs reiterated its bullish stance on gold in its latest report, forecasting a 14% rise to $4,900 per ounce by December 2026 under its base case. It cited robust central bank structural gold buying demand and Fed rate-cut cycle support as key drivers, while noting that diversification in private-sector investments could further push up prices. The bank continues to recommend maintaining long positions in gold. Geopolitically, the EU Brussels Summit failed to reach a consensus on using proceeds from Russia's frozen assets to fund "compensation loans" for Ukraine, exposing deep divisions among member states over legal liability and financial risks. Belgium, as the primary custodian of Russian assets, plays a pivotal role in the progress of this issue due to its cautious approach. Moreover, U.S. President Trump publicly urged Ukraine to move quickly, warning that "every time they take too much time, then Russia changes their mind." This public pressure, previously applied privately, sets a tone of seeking a rapid resolution ahead of the high-level U.S.-Ukraine meeting scheduled for December 19th–20th in Florida.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, financial markets currently see only a 26.6% probability of a Fed rate cut at its next meeting in January, even though the Fed cut rates by 0.25 percentage points at each of its past three meetings. On Wednesday, President Trump stated that the next Fed chair would be someone who believes in significantly lowering interest rates. He also said he would soon announce the successor to current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed that core CPI rose 2.6% year-on-year in November, down notably from 3.0% earlier; headline CPI rose 2.7% YoY, well below the market expectation of 3.1%, with core CPI hitting a new low since March 2021. Although inflation is still rising year-on-year, its growth rate has slowed to near a three-year low, somewhat easing concerns about a resurgence in inflation. After the data release, the probability of a Fed rate cut in January 2026 nudged up from 26.6% to 28.8%. However, some analysts noted that the CPI data may have been affected by incomplete price collection during the U.S. government shutdown and technical revisions to October's figures, potentially impacting accuracy; actual inflation may still be close to 3.0%. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee called the report positive data, saying that if the trend continues, it could create conditions for further rate cuts next year, but economists cautioned against overinterpreting a single month's data. Traders will pay closer attention to the University of Michigan's December Consumer Sentiment Index, due out late Friday.

Regarding the four-hour chart, gold's Bollinger Bands are narrowing, and the candlestick pattern forms a shooting star. Price is oscillating around the EMA12 line and the Bollinger Middle Band, remaining in a short-term sideways range and susceptible to sudden directional shifts. After forming a death cross, the MACD and signal lines are moving back toward the zero axis but remain some distance away, suggesting the adjustment is not yet complete. RSI stands at 53, reflecting strong market indecision. Support levels lie at 4300 and 4270. On the weekly chart, the price is rising strongly along the Bollinger Upper Band. As long as it holds above the EMA12, the overall uptrend remains intact. This week's closing pattern will be key: a doji star likely signals an adjustment next week, while a bullish candle implies continued gains, with resistance at 4380 and 4400. Meanwhile, an RSI of 75 indicates the market is in overbought territory. Therefore, it is recommended to sell now and buy later.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 4325

Target price: 4100

Stop loss: 4400

Support: 4200/4100/3800

Resistance: 4380/4500/5000