Bullish Momentum Could Last Longer and Take Control of the Trend

Central Bank

Economic

Summary:

A clean upward crossover of these signal lines above the neutral threshold could pave the way for a more sustained bullish trend that lasts for a longer period of time.

BUY EURUSD

EXP

TRADING

1.15580

Entry Price

1.16390

1.14970

1.15791 +0.00008 +0.01%

0.0

Pips

Flat

1.14970

Exit Price

1.15580

Entry Price

1.16390

U.S. President Donald Trump stated recently that the United States and Iran could sign an agreement as soon as this weekend, a development that could potentially open up maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. Along the same line, the Iranian-linked FARS news agency revealed that because the United States has accepted the text proposed by Iran, there is a high probability that this draft will be approved by the highest authorities of the system.

On the economic front, U.S. inflation data showed that producer prices increased by 6.5% year-over-year in May, coming in higher than the 5.7% recorded in April and beating the market forecast of 6.4%. Meanwhile, the core Producer Price Index (PPI), which excludes volatile energy and food components, grew by 4.9% year-over-year, landing below the consensus market expectation of 5.4% and remaining unchanged compared to the previous month. Notably, today's PPI report, alongside the consumer price data revealed a day ago, kept investor expectations steady regarding an interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve toward the end of 2026, according to figures provided by Prime Terminal.

Simultaneously, the European Central Bank (ECB) met market expectations by raising its key interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday, positioning the deposit facility rate at 2.25%. With this decision, the institution ended a period of seven consecutive meetings with an unchanged monetary policy, inside an economic backdrop marked by growing inflationary pressures coming from rising energy costs. In its official statement, the ECB highlighted that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is contributing to higher inflation risks, noting that the rate adjustment is appropriate under various scenarios that evaluate the potential development of the energy shock and its medium-term impact on the Eurozone economic outlook.

During the subsequent press conference, ECB President Christine Lagarde repeated that future policy choices will remain strictly dependent on incoming economic data and dismissed the idea of a pre-set path for interest rates. Furthermore, she stressed that risks to inflation keep tilting to the upside, while economic growth perspectives face downside risks. The new Eurosystem staff projections reflect this environment, with headline inflation now estimated to average 3% in 2026, 2.3% in 2027, and 2% in 2028. Notably, the forecasts for 2026 and 2027 were revised upward compared to those published in March, reinforcing the concerns of monetary officials regarding the persistent nature of price pressures.

This monetary backdrop connects with data published by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on Wednesday, which showed that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 4.2% year-over-year in May, compared to the 3.8% recorded in April. This print marked the highest level in three years and came in exactly in line with market expectations, while on a month-over-month basis, the CPI increased by 0.5%, matching the estimates of analysts. Bullish Momentum Could Last Longer and Take Control of the Trend_1

Bullish Momentum Could Last Longer and Take Control of the Trend_1

Technical Analysis

From a chart perspective, GBP/USD has turned upward once again after drawing close to the horizontal support floor located at 1.1510. This specific zone was also defended three days ago on June 8, and this repeated rejection indicates that a further upward recovery could be developing. If this move continues, the next near-term objectives sit around the 1.1639 area, which functions as the next major horizontal resistance ceiling. Meanwhile, the 100 and 200-period Moving Averages are currently tracking at 1.1621 and 1.1664, respectively. Because of this positioning, these moving lines are expected to align directly with the horizontal resistance zone during a potential upward pullback, creating a key structural area to watch.

A look at the oscillator section provides secondary confirmation for this resuming upward path. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently tracking at the 52 level, sitting just slightly above the neutral zone, this shows that the price action still possesses plenty of open chart space to develop its upward movement before approaching overbought boundaries.

At the same time, the MACD indicator is showing a positive histogram that is beginning to gain upward depth once again, while its signal lines are systematically moving closer to the neutral zero line. A clean upward crossover of these signal lines above the neutral threshold could pave the way for a more sustained bullish trend that lasts for a longer period of time, keeping the near-term recovery structure intact.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.1558

Target price: 1.1639

Stop loss: 1.1497

Validity: Jun 23, 2026 15:00:00

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Bullish Momentum Could Last Longer and Take Control of the Trend

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