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Vietnam recorded 52 merger and acquisition deals worth over $720 million in October 2025, led predominantly by foreign investors and private equity funds entering the market for the first time,...
Federal Reserve Governor Michael Barr said although artificial intelligence will transform economies, there are a range of outcomes as to how that will play out.
Barr, in remarks prepared for a speech Wednesday at the Singapore FinTech Festival, outlined two basic scenarios. In the first, adoption of generative AI could augment existing tasks and roles. In the second, it could lead to a transformative impact, where work and leisure undergo radical change that boosts efficiency and remakes firms with new business models.
"Right now, it is difficult to predict which scenario (or perhaps one or more intermediate scenarios) will come to pass," he said.
Fed officials elected to cut their benchmark interest rate at each of their last two policy meetings following a sharp slowdown in hiring over the summer. Recent public comments indicate they are divided over the need for a third reduction in December, though investors are betting on one, according to futures.
In his speech, Barr pointed to a New York Fed survey showing AI has led employers to scale back hiring plans — a development the Fed governor suggested may be contributing to slower levels of job creation — though he didn't comment on the near-term outlook for monetary policy.
He also pointed to the possibility that the trillions of dollars in planned capital investment into data centers could drive significant economic change, including productivity gains.
"Investment in capital generally raises labor productivity and offers the potential for higher output growth without pressure on inflation over the longer term," Barr said. "As I have discussed in previous remarks, if these changes are significant, they can also affect the conduct of monetary policy."
Global lenders like Goldman Sachs Group Inc. retracted calls for further monetary stimulus in China this year after the central bank telegraphed more patience in steering an economy still on track to hit growth targets.
The People's Bank of China downplayed concerns over a slowdown in new loans and pledged in a Tuesday report to adopt "cross-cyclical" policy adjustments. Appearing for the first time in more than a year in its quarterly statements, that phrase emphasizes a longer-term horizon that looks beyond temporary volatility in economic growth.
The latest messaging from officials prompted Goldman economists to push back their forecast for the next reduction in China's policy interest rate and reserve requirement ratio to the first quarter of 2026, from the final months of this year. Analysts at Zheshang Securities Co. also see a lower probability of rate and RRR cuts before the end of 2025, saying in a Tuesday report that broad easing could be reserved for early 2026 to ensure the economy gets off to a smooth start next year.
Even prior to this week's PBOC report, Citigroup Inc. and Bloomberg Economics also shifted to expecting no further rate cuts in 2025.
The guidance suggests "the PBOC is willing to tolerate further moderation in loan growth rather than respond with broad-based monetary and credit easing," Xinquan Chen, an economist at Goldman, wrote in a note Wednesday.
The changes are causing a rethink after the PBOC already surprised by acting with restraint in easing monetary policy this year. Its shift to a "moderately loose" stance for the first time since 2010 initially led economists including those at Goldman to forecast the biggest rate cuts in a decade.
But the actual stimulus has fallen well short of those expectations, with just one 10-basis point rate reduction delivered so far this year in May.
The economy has been unexpectedly resilient in the face of a second US-China trade war. Officials also proceeded with caution as the stock market boomed for months after China's breakthroughs in technology including artificial intelligence set off euphoria among investors.
But the risk is that insufficient stimulus could leave the economy vulnerable over the longer term by prolonging deeper problems including deflation, the property downturn and weak consumer confidence.
The yuan was little changed after the PBOC on Wednesday set its daily reference rate at the strongest level since October 2024. The 10-year yield was steady at 1.8% while the one-year rate was unchanged at 1.4%.
Another factor shaping the PBOC's policy path is its resumption of government bond trading last month. While modest at the moment, its purchases of sovereign debt could inject substantial liquidity into the financial system if the central bank ramps up its use of the program.
The wording in the latest PBOC report "implies that Beijing might be more cautious in its policy stimulus," Huaxi Securities analysts led by Liu Yu wrote in a note. "The goal is to put a floor under the economy to avoid a stall, thereby safeguarding the foundations of the recent recovery."
Federal Reserve officials are growing increasingly fractured over whether to cut interest rates in December, the Wall Street Journal's Nick Timiraos reported on Tuesday.
Timiraos– who earned the moniker of the "Fed whisperer," said officials are split over what poses a greater threat to the economy– sticky inflation or a sluggish labor market– with recent delays in official data, due to a prolonged government shutdown, adding to this friction.
The central bank had cut interest rates by 25 basis points in near unanimous decisions in September and October.
But a contingent of hawkish policymakers questioned the need for further rate cuts, especially a third consecutive cut in December.
Chair Jerome Powell had also pushed back against expectations that a December cut was a given.
Friction over a December cut was exacerbated by the longest ever government shutdown, which delayed the release of several official inflation and labor reports.
Still, the shutdown is set to end this week, allowing the government to release several key economic prints before the Fed's meeting in December.
CME Fedwatch showed markets pricing in a 61.9% chance the Fed will cut rates by another 25 basis points during its December 10-11 meeting, and a 38.1% chance it will hold rates steady.
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