US Treasury Keeps Auction Sizes Steady, Considering Future Increases

Economic

Summary:

The U.S. Treasury Department on Wednesday said it expects to keep its nominal coupon and floating rate note auction sizes steady for at least the next several quarters, but is beginning to consider future increases.

The announcement came after some market participants had speculated that the Treasury might reduce the size of some longer-dated debt sales following recent increases in Treasury bill issuance.

"On the margin it was a little bit hawkish compared to what markets expected," said Jan Nevruzi, U.S. Rates Strategist at TD Securities in New York.

The Treasury is now expected to drop the language that it expects to maintain auction sizes for at least the next several quarters as soon as the next refunding announcement in February.

Increases in some debt auction sizes are then likely to begin in late 2026 or early 2027, with the government's budget deficit expected to worsen over time.

A presentation by the Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee, a group of banks and asset managers that advise the Treasury on its borrowing strategy, said that the current issuance mix is near the "efficient frontier" when considering debt service costs against volatility.

TBAC noted that the median primary dealer forecast is for increases in nominal coupon debt in fiscal years 2027 and 2028 in maturities from two to seven years, with the largest increases likely in two-year and five-year notes.

Increases in auction sizes for longer-dated nominal coupon debt, Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities and floating-rate notes are likely to be smaller.

The Treasury said it will increase the size of its 5-year TIPS reopening in December by $1 billion to $24 billion, while leaving the size of other TIPS auctions unchanged in the coming quarter.

The U.S. plans to sell $125 billion in its quarterly refunding next week, which will raise $26.8 billion in new cash and refund $98.2 billion in securities. This will include $58 billion in three-year notes, $42 billion in 10-year notes and $25 billion in 30-year bonds.

The Treasury will also vary the size of its bill issuance over the coming quarter based on its needs. It expects to make modest reductions to short-dated bill auction sizes in December, based on corporate and non-withheld tax receipts. It then expects to increase them again by the middle of January 2026, based on expected fiscal outflows.

Source: TradingView

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Adam

Commodity

Gold’s rally has entered a cooling phase after two consecutive weekly losses, but while near-term momentum has stalled, the fundamental case for holding gold remains intact, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.

Hansen said that over the past two weeks, the tone “has shifted from exuberance to reflection, with traders reassessing how much of the 2025 narrative—rate cuts, fiscal stress, geopolitical hedging, and central bank demand—has already been priced in.”

He noted that India’s festival season typically boosts jewelry demand. “The market has now entered its customary post-festival soft patch, likely to stabilise as year-end buying returns, potentially aided by the recent correction,” he said. “A more structural development came from China, where authorities ended a long-standing VAT exemption for certain jewellery retailers purchasing through the Shanghai Gold Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange.”

Hansen said the change will raise retail costs somewhat and could dampen jewelry sales, but its macro significance is limited. “Investment gold—bars, coins, and ETFs—remains fully exempt, ensuring the key channels that have driven China’s record physical demand stay intact,” he wrote.

Hansen said Powell’s recent comments that a December rate cut is not a foregone conclusion “lifted the dollar and nudged real yields higher, further cooling enthusiasm” for gold, while the market reaction to U.S.-China tariff progress was muted.

“Investors recognise that the deeper strategic tensions remain unresolved, particularly around technology, supply chains, and industrial policy,” he said. “The announcement may have reduced tail risks but did little to change the longer-term case for owning defensive assets.”

In terms of the technical picture, he said gold’s recent price correction “has been a healthy development suggesting the market is releasing pressure rather than reversing trend.”

“Support has been building near USD 3,835–3,878, an area that aligns with the 50% Fibonacci retracement of latest run up since August as well as the 50-day moving average,” Hansen said, and warned that “a deeper slide cannot be ruled out if equity market risk appetite stay buoyant and the dollar continues to firm.”

Gold’s 2025 top may be in, but early 2026 should see the next leg up – Saxo Bank’s Hansen_1

He also noted that ETF holdings rose sharply during the rally, and futures data “suggest only moderate long reduction” rather than liquidation.

“Meanwhile, central banks remain a key source of stability, with the World Gold Council reporting Q3 official purchases of 220 tonnes, lifting year-to-date buying to 634 tonnes—close to last year’s record,” he said. “This persistent official demand continues to limit downside volatility.”

Hansen said despite the yellow metal’s recent weakness, fiscal debt concerns, the threat of currency debasement, central bank demand, and the Fed’s policy trajectory mean the bullish case for gold remains intact.

Turning to gold’s short-term outlook, he said that while this year’s high may be in, the recent pullback “appears more like consolidation than capitulation.”

“The last major consolidation following the May record high near USD 3,500 lasted roughly four months before the August breakout triggered a nine-week, 27% advance,” he said. “A similar duration this time could imply another period of sideways trade before renewed strength into early 2026. Until then, elevated volatility and alternating sentiment swings may test short-term conviction on both sides of the market.”

“Once this corrective phase runs its course, the same forces that fuelled this year’s rally—debt, inflation, and diversification demand—are likely to reassert themselves, making the next meaningful leg higher a 2026 story.”

Source: kitco

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Adam

Commodity

After a strong buying trend, silver prices reached new highs of $53-54 per ounce. However, the demand didn’t hold at these levels for long. Prices corrected and dropped to below $50 per ounce, hitting a low of around $45. This change is likely due to investors selling to profit from the rally.

In the medium to long term, silver prices could rise again, but in the short term, reduced US-China tensions and stable economic conditions might lead to price stability. In the silver market, the Pan American company, which mines silver, is also experiencing a price drop. Despite this, the company’s solid fundamentals make it a good option for buying at a lower price.

Will the US Dollar Index Follow the Predicted Trend?

When evaluating silver’s value, it’s important to consider the strength of the US dollar, which is measured by comparing it to a basket of major currencies. Right now, the US dollar is showing some signs of strengthening. Its value has risen to an important resistance level, around 100 points on this index.

Silver’s Long-Term Bull Case Still Shines Bright_1

The level around 100 points also acts as the "neckline" for an inverted head-and-shoulders pattern. This suggests that if the US dollar moves higher from this point, it could reach a target zone around 104 points. On the other hand, if the dollar drops below 98 points, this pattern would be invalidated.

Is the Correction an Opportunity for Pan American Buyers?

Shares of the mining company Pan American Silver (NYSE:PAAS) are declining rapidly as silver prices drop. Technically speaking, the current rebound in their stock price is nearing a significant point where several factors converge: the trend line, a support level at $32 per share, and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.

Silver’s Long-Term Bull Case Still Shines Bright_2

If there is a strong buying response around this area, it could signal that the stock is aiming to return to its overall upward trend. Additionally, the company has strong fundamentals. According to the InvestingPro tool, the stock’s fair value is less than 20% higher, and it has a strong financial health score.

Is Silver Uncertain About Its Direction?

After falling to around $45.60 per ounce, silver prices have stopped dropping, and buyers are trying to push the price back up. However, they are currently struggling to gain momentum. The price has stalled around $49 per ounce, suggesting that the market might enter a period of stability or consolidation.

Silver’s Long-Term Bull Case Still Shines Bright_3

If silver prices break above the $49 level, it could be a strong signal of returning to the uptrend, similar to the inverted head-and-shoulders pattern seen with the dollar index. However, if the price falls below the lower boundary of the current range, it could drop further, potentially reaching $40 per ounce. Despite this possibility, the expectation right now is not for prices to fall to that level.

Source: investing

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Justin

Economic

Newly appointed Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran said Wednesday he thinks it "would still be a reasonable action" for the Fed to continue cutting interest rates, including at its last meeting of the year on Dec. 9-10.

Miran, in an interview on Yahoo Finance Live, cited earlier policy projections calling for three rate cuts in 2025.

"The natural question that would follow from that is, has anything changed?" he said.

Acknowledging the lack of official economic data due to the government shutdown, Miran said that inflation has come in below expectations and the labor market continues to trend steadily.

The Fed voted to cut interest rates by a quarter-percentage point last week, bringing the target range to 3.75% to 4%. Miran dissented — as he also did in the September meeting — preferring a jumbo half-point cut.

His goal, he said, is to get to a neutral policy stance — a level designed to neither spur nor slow growth.

The key difference between him and his colleagues at the Fed? "I want to get there faster than everybody else," Miran said. "It's not that the destination is really all that different."

Since last week's policy meeting, a growing chorus of Fed officials have expressed concerns about inflation and reservations about cutting rates again in December.

Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee said on Yahoo Finance Live that he is undecided about a December cut, while Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook and San Francisco Fed president Mary Daly echoed similar sentiments in separate speeches on Monday. Kansas City Federal Reserve president Jeff Schmid said he favored no rate cut at last week's policy meeting.

That appears to make Miran something of an outlier in pushing for further cuts.

"Anything can happen between now and December. There could be new information, there could be surprises, there could be shocks. Things that we don't expect could occur," he said. "But barring new information that would make you really change your forecast a lot, I would think it would ... still be a ... sort of consistent, reasonable action ... to continue on the path that we've been on."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney promised his first budget would be a bold blueprint for "generational investments," to bolster the economy and withstand a trade war with the U.S., but to some analysts Tuesday's document was a missed opportunity.

The budget, they said, ended up falling short on ambition, constrained in part by the reality of leading a minority government that relies on political rivals to survive.

"This isn't a generational budget," said Theo Argitis, senior vice president for policy at the Business Council of Canada. "It goes in the right direction on some fronts, but I think Carney was not as ambitious as he could have been."

Argitis said there was not enough that might speed private investment at the scale necessary for significant growth.

"If you're looking to transform the economy, this budget is not going to do it," he said.

CANADA ECONOMY FACES SLOW GROWTH, U.S. TARIFFS

Canada is grappling with slow economic growth and the impact of tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.

Carney, saying the tariffs and the uncertainty they had created would cost around 1.8% of GDP, on Wednesday pushed back against the idea he had been too cautious.

"This budget is a sea change in the approach for the government," he told reporters, noting a pledge to slash the pace of official spending and what he called unprecedented changes to the tax system to boost business investment.

But while increasing numbers of Canadians struggle to put food on the table, Carney is not necessarily the politician they blame, said Elizabeth McCallion, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto.

"Canadians know there are many things beyond Carney's control," she said. "They're more angry at Donald Trump than they are at Carney."

Without enough seats in his minority government to pass the budget, Carney will likely rely on the small, left-leaning New Democratic Party, which has just seven legislators, little money and no permanent leader.

If they simply abstain from the budget vote, expected after November 17, Carney's government will pull through.

"This budget won't trigger an election unless someone trips into it. No party should want to go now. Not even the Liberals. And voters? They are poised to punish anyone who tries," said pollster Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs .

A Nanos Research poll this week found Carney was the preferred prime minister for nearly half of Canadians, versus 27% for Pierre Poilievre, leader of the official opposition Conservative Party.

The New Democrats welcomed some proposed measures, such as infrastructure spending tied to union jobs, but said cuts in the public sector workforce and other provisions were "a step in the wrong direction."

BUDGET COMMITS TO NEW INFRASTRUCTURE, SPENDING CUTS

The budget commits to spending C$280 billion (US$200 billion) over five years to build new infrastructure while cutting C$60 billion in government spending.

Another contentious issue is the proposed deficit, which Ottawa estimated at C$78 billion for the next fiscal year, or more than double last year's deficit. It would drop to C$57 billion by 2030.

Poilievre had previously laid out several key budget demands, including keeping the deficit below C$42 billion.

Poilievre on Tuesday also criticized the budget for keeping the taxes on groceries, work, energy and homebuilding.

But one Conservative legislator, Chris D'Entremont of Nova Scotia's Acadie-Annapolis district, appeared convinced. He announced on Tuesday he had joined Carney's Liberals, although the government will still be left with a minority. Political defections in Canada are relatively rare.

Robert Asselin, who once served as an adviser to Liberal ministers and now heads an organization of research universities, said Carney could have spent much more to drive growth but that would likely have resulted in a deficit beyond C$100 billion.

Drew Fagan, a visiting professor at Yale University who specializes in global affairs, added: "You cannot simply turn around the world's 10th largest economy with one budget."

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Devin

Economic

After yesterday's mixed picture on Manufacturing (PMI up, ISM down), analysts expected both Services surveys this morning to show an upward bounce.

S&P Global's Services PMI disappointed but did rise from September's 54.2 to 54.8 (but that was less than expected and less than the 55.2 preliminary print)
ISM's Services PMI beat expectations, rising from 50.0 to 52.4, well above the 50.8 expectations.

And this is happening amid a rise in 'hard' data (though admittedly based on housing and marginal labor data given the vacuum since the shutdown)

Source: Bloomberg

Under the hood, Prices surged to their highest in three years, new orders expanded at their fastest pace in a year and employment improved (though remained below 50)...

Source: Bloomberg

"October's final PMI data add to signs that the US economy has entered the fourth quarter with strong momentum," according to Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

"Growth in the vast services economy has picked up speed to accompany an improved performance in the manufacturing sector.

In total, business activity is growing at a rate commensurate with GDP rising at an annualized pace of around 2.5% after a similarly solid expansion was signalled for the third quarter."

While growth is being driven principally by the financial services and tech sectors, Williamson says the survey is also picking up signs of improving demand from consumers.

However, the surge in prices paid is having some consequences

"However, there are signs that new business is coming at the cost of service providers having to soak up continued high input price growth to remain competitive.

Customers are often pushing back on price rises, especially in consumer-facing markets.

While good news in terms of inflation, this lack of pricing power hints at weak underlying demand and lower profits. "

Business expectations about the year ahead have also fallen sharply and are now running at one of the lowest levels seen over the past three years, as Williamson notes "signs of spending caution from customers is accompanied by heightened political and economic uncertainty."

However, Williamson points out that lower interest rates have helped offset some of the drags to business confidence, for which the October FOMC rate cut will have likely helped further.

Certainly nothing here to shift The Fed strongly from its easing path but Treasury yields are on the rise (likely driven by the inflation jump)

Source: Zero Hedge

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

Homeless people will for the first time be able to open accounts with the UK's five biggest banks, in a pilot scheme marking the launch of the government's financial inclusion strategy.

The Treasury said its new national plan was meant to ensure financial services "worked for everyone", as it also revealed programmes that could help rebuild the credit scores of domestic abuse victims, support families with no savings and roll out financial education in primary schools across the UK.

One of the key schemes will see the high street lenders Lloyds, NatWest, Barclays, Nationwide and Santander waive the need for people to have a fixed address in order to open a bank account. The move will help vulnerable people avoid the chicken-and-egg problem of needing a bank account to apply for work and rental accommodation across the UK.

It will involve partnerships with the homelessness charity Shelter, which will vouch for prospective customers based on information on the charity's database, while accompanying individuals to face-to-face meetings at a local bank branch. The scheme expands on a partnership with HSBC, which has opened 7,000 accounts for people experiencing homelessness since its start in 2019.

The City minister, Lucy Rigby, said: "This plan is about opening doors – helping people experiencing homelessness into work, helping survivors of abuse rebuild their credit and helping families save for a rainy day.

"No one should be locked out of the chance to build a better future. Our strategy gives people the tools to get on and boosts the economy by supporting more people back into work."

The Treasury said it was also rolling out plans to help victims of domestic abuse repair credit ratings that have been damaged as a result of perpetrators having forced partners to take on debt on their behalf.

Credit agencies including Experian, Equifax and TransUnion will start reviewing how they could rescore victim's credit ratings, before reporting back to government. Charities said it would give survivors a fair chance to rebuild their financial independence.

"For far too long, domestic abusers have stolen victim-survivors' futures – forcing them into debt and destroying their credit scores with life-shattering consequences," said Sam Smethers, the chief executive of the Surviving Economic Abuse charity.

"This strategy provides a golden opportunity to help survivors rebuild their lives by restoring their credit scores. It's one we must seize so that credit reports reflect victim-survivors' creditworthiness, not the economic abuse they have experienced."

The financial inclusion strategy, which follows a years-long review by a Treasury-led financial inclusion committee, is aimed at boosting support for vulnerable people who have struggled to access banking and build financial resilience.

It comes as statistics reveal that more than 11.5 million people in the UK have less than £100 in savings, severely reducing their ability to recover from emergencies and unexpected costs such as boiler breakdowns or an extended illness.

The Treasury's strategy will also look at how to provide support for employers hoping to offer payroll savings schemes, where money is automatically deducted from wages and placed into an accessible savings pot on the workers' behalf before it hits their main bank accounts.

While the Treasury said these schemes have been popular with workers, some companies have been reluctant to take part for fear of inadvertently breaching minimum wage laws. The government said it would be "providing them with the certainty they need through the strategy to roll out such schemes far and wide".

Ministers said they would also inject financial education into the national curriculum as part of broader reforms announced by the Department for Education (DfE). Teachers will soon be teaching key financial concepts such as calculating interest as part of the maths curriculum, followed by additional financial literacy in a new compulsory "citizenship" course.

The DfE said it would ensure that primary pupils learned more about "fundamentals of money, recognising that children are now consumers often before they reach secondary school".