Trump Establishes U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Amid Policy Shift

Cryptocurrency

Summary:

President Trump creates a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and appoints a crypto czar.Major shift rescinds prior restrictive policies.Market reacts with volatility and institutional caution.

Trump Establishes U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Amid Policy Shift

Trump's administration has initiated a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, marking a significant policy shift within the first 100 days. The move includes appointing David Sacks as "Crypto Czar."

The policy shift indicates a new direction supporting digital assets, contrasting former administration restrictions. Market responses reflect optimism tempered by regulatory changes.

U.S. Launches Bitcoin Reserve Under New Crypto Agenda

Trump's establishment of a federal Bitcoin reserve is part of a broader pro-crypto agenda, aligning with his public commitments. David Sacks, a known venture capitalist, takes charge as the administration’s "Crypto Czar."

The administration is engaging key regulatory bodies, such as the SEC and Treasury. The actions reflect a strategy to bolster innovation and digital asset compliance, with changes designed to steer focus away from restrictive measures.

Donald J. Trump, President of the United States: “President Trump promised to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a Digital Assets Stockpile. President Trump appointed a ‘crypto czar’...” White House Fact Sheet

Volatility as Markets Weigh Federal Bitcoin Initiative

Immediate market reactions showcase volatility as industry stakeholders assess federal crypto initiatives. These developments present both opportunities and risks, prompting a cautious response from institutional investors.

Trump's actions aim to juice the financial markets, pushing firms towards regulatory adaptations. Political shifts signal an openness to blockchain technology, as outlined in the White House Executive Order, calling for comprehensive regulatory reviews.

U.S. Crypto Policy Reversal Mirrors Global Trends

This reversal from Executive Order 14067 shifts the U.S. from restrictive to supportive crypto policies. Similar actions in other nations, like El Salvador's Bitcoin adoption, provide varied outcomes.

Future results depend on how markets integrate new regulations. Past data suggests volatility, yet experts indicate potential for financial inclusivity and technological advancement with significant policy backing.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Commodity

After a standout 12-month performance that has seen gold prices rise by nearly 42%, investors would do well to revisit the gold investment thesis, according to Columbia Business School professor and QuantStreet Capital partner Harry Mamaysky.

In a recent analysis for VettaFi, Mamaysky noted that since the Fed began its monetary easing cycle, cutting its interest rate target by 1%, gold has done what it typically does: post gains.

“[G]old (as represented by the iShares Gold Trust (IAU)) has been one of the best-performing asset classes, with gains outstripping those of the S&P 500 index (SPX), Treasuries (represented by the Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT)), the Nasdaq-100 Index (represented by the Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)), bitcoin, and global stocks ex-U.S. (represented by the Vanguard Total International Stock ETF (VXUS)),” he wrote.

Mamaysky said that much of gold’s recent strength is due to the uncertainty caused by the Trump administration’s trade policy. “Since President Trump’s April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcement, gold is up 6.2%, while U.S. stocks are down close to 7%, and international stocks and bitcoin are down around 2%,” he said.

Mamaysky then lists a number of factors that have helped drive gold prices higher, and that support the investment case for holding gold going forward.

The first of these is persistent buying by central banks around the globe. “[C]entral banks have been net buyers of gold for the last several years, a trend that might accelerate given recent market turmoil caused by trade uncertainty,” he said.

Gold’s effectiveness as a hedge against market and economic uncertainty is shown through two statistical measures.

“Gold’s daily price changes have very low correlations with price changes of other asset classes,” Mamaysky wrote. “For example, over the last year, the correlation of daily gold and S&P 500 returns has been 21%, whereas the correlation of bitcoin and S&P 500 returns has been 46%. This low correlation means gold is a diversifying influence in investor portfolios.”

Gold also tends to do well in 12-month periods where the overall market performs poorly. “In 1-in-20 bad 12-month return periods for the S&P 500 — when the S&P 500 is down 25% on average — gold’s average return has been a positive 2%,” he noted

Mamaysky said that QuantStreet’s machine learning forecasting model is bullish on gold. “The model identifies several forecasting variables for each tracked asset class,” he said. “For gold, the model identifies the U.S.’ versus Germany’s interest rate differential (dxy_carry) and the level of two-year Treasury yields (gt2) in the U.S. as important forecasting variables. The currently elevated — relative to its history in the model training window — level of two-year yields generates a high one-year ahead return forecast.”

Another element that supports the gold investment thesis is QuantStreet’s gold forecasting model, “which has good out-of-sample forecasting properties, as seen by its out-of-sample R-squared (a measure of the goodness of fit of future one-year return forecasts versus actual one-year ahead return outcomes) of 48%,” he said.

Mamaysky then outlines the elements that argue against gold investment in the current environment.

The first of these is its high rate of return over the past year. Mamaysky shared a chart that shows the price of front-month gold futures relative to CPI. “The gold-to-price-level ratio is at 9.77, which is an all-time high dating back to the mid-1970s,” he noted. “Last year, we also mentioned this elevated level as a concern for the gold thesis, though at that time the ratio was only at 6.77.”

“Another factor in favor of gold as a portfolio hedge is the gold-to-bitcoin ratio, which now stands at 0.039, quite a bit higher than last year’s ratio, but still well off recent highs established in late 2022,” he added.

“Several factors argue in favor of gold’s inclusion in investor portfolios, but the elevated valuation level of gold (relative to the inflation price index) argues for some caution,” Mamaysky concluded, adding that while QuantStreet continues to hold gold in their portfolios, “we regularly evaluate the investment thesis and other relative opportunities, and our holdings of gold may decrease or increase in the coming weeks and months.”

source : Kitco

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Adam

Stocks

US stocks melted down and market volatility soared after President Donald Trump announced his across-the-board punitive tariffs regime on April 2. While international stocks got hurt too, overall they’ve done better.

Sure, US stocks were considered overvalued coming into 2025. But the loss of trillions of dollars over a matter of days in April was extreme. And it wasn’t much comfort when stocks staged some mini-relief rallies on hopes that things might not be quite as bad as feared because Trump was postponing or lessening certain tariffs, or there were signs his advisers convinced him firing the Federal Reserve chair would be bad for markets and the economy.

Coupled with the decline in the value of the US dollar — long considered to be the world’s reserve currency — the negative economic effects of Trump’s tariffs are pushing investors to wonder if the US is still the strongest and safest bet relative to other countries.

So far, the answer to that question seems to be a very qualified “Yes, but …”

“People are still trying to figure out what’s happening,” said Amy Arnott, a chartered financial analyst and portfolio strategist at Morningstar.

As things stand, “both cyclical and structural changes to U.S. exceptionalism are now on the table, being priced at a greater-than-zero probability of weakening,” the global equity team at investment firm Wiliam Blair noted last week in a blog.

Looking abroad for value

There’s a question of whether US investors should allocate more — or just some — money to international equities.

Individual US investors typically haven’t had a lot — or even any, in some cases — exposure to stocks from countries with developed or emerging economies in their portfolios. And they haven’t suffered for it in the past decade. That’s because US stocks handily outperformed non-US stocks by as much as four to five percentage points a year, Arnott said.

But this year, the reverse may be happening.

The Morningstar Global Markets Index ex-US was up 6.46% year to date through April 24. By contrast, its US Markets Index was down 6.59%.

The reason is likely two-fold, Arnott said: International stocks are less expensive than their US cousins and there’s been heightened concern and uncertainty about US policies.

Over the next several years, Vanguard’s investment outlook, for instance, continues to forecast that international equities will outperform US stocks due to more attractive valuations.

Still, net money flows into US equity mutual funds and ETFs have remained positive year to date through mid-April, according to data from the Investment Company Institute, suggesting US equities remain an attractive bet overall.

Diversity remains a good hedge

However, this year has reminded investors why having a diversified portfolio is helpful when US stocks are dropping.

Consider the balanced model portfolio with 60% stocks and 40% bonds. Its best feature: a lower risk and volatility profile than portfolios more heavily invested in stocks.

Such a portfolio that only invested in US stocks for the equity portion was down roughly 3% year to date — much better than the bigger drops on US stock indexes. But if 20% of the stock portion had been in international equities, the portfolio would be down just 0.41%, Arnott said. “If you had international exposure, you would have done significantly better.”

Of course, US Treasuries have been on a scary trip too in the past month. Normally when stocks are plunging, investors pour into US government bonds, pushing their prices up and their yields down, because they’re buying safety — that they won’t lose money and that they will always be paid back. But in the second week of April there was a sell-off, pushing Treasury yields higher — and in the case of the 10- and 30-year bonds, yields have remained higher than they were on April 2.

Granted, it’s not the first time US bonds have bucked their reputation. See: Your portfolio returns for 2022.

The question is, will this remain a problem going forward? Answer: Who knows?

Much may depend on how the US and world economies adjust to the many trade wars that have been ignited, which economists warn will make US inflation worse and slow economic growth.

“In a scenario where we have inflation flaring up again, that could put pressure on stocks and bonds. So, holding a diversified portfolio with bonds and international stocks is not a magic bullet in every market. But it improves the odds that you’ll have some ability to withstand volatility,” Arnott said.

A path forward for now

If your prime exposure to the markets is through a retirement-year target date fund in a 401(k) or IRA, you may already have the diversification you need, especially when it comes to international equities.

That’s because for years, target date funds have been overweight in international stocks, said Jason Kephart, a senior principal of multi-asset strategy ratings at Morningstar.

Compared to all equity mutual and exchange traded funds, which aim to hold 25% in non-US assets, target date funds have allocated 30%, Kephart said.

That has started to pay off this year, Kephart said.“Diversification is finally being rewarded,” he said.

Similarly, a target date fund will make adjustments to the bond holdings in your portfolio, bumping up the allocation to a diversified mix of high-quality government and corporate bonds the closer you get to your target retirement year (e.g., 2030, 2040, 2050).

But if you’re not in a target-date fund and you are managing the asset allocation in your retirement account, you might consider having up to 35% of the stocks portion of your portfolio in non-US equities, Arnott said. That would echo how the MSCI All Countries World Index (ACWI) is weighted toward non-US stocks.

Or depending on your risk tolerance, you might follow the advice of Adam Grossman, a chartered financial analyst and founder of Mayport Wealth Management. In his latest weekly newsletter he suggests an allocation to international stocks “in the neighborhood” of 20%. “According to the data, that’s enough to deliver a diversification benefit, but not so much that it introduces significant currency risk,” he wrote.

Either way, you can get your exposure to non-US stocks through a low-cost world markets ex-US index fund. (Morningstar offers its pick of the top 10 here.)

As for bonds, Arnott suggests looking for a core bond fund for your 401(k) — which will be invested in different types of government and investment-grade corporate bonds.

If you’re investing in bonds on your own — say, for the portion of your money that you want readily available to draw on for living expenses when you’re in or near retirement — “Focus your bond allocation on the short- to intermediate-term portion of the yield curve. I would be very cautious with longer-term Treasuries. That is where the risk is greatest,” she said.

source :cnn

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Kevin Du

Political

“The punchline is I think this is really status quo,” Eric Nuttall, partner and senior portfolio manager at Ninepoint Partners, told BNN Bloomberg in a Tuesday interview following Monday’s federal election that resulted in a minority government for the Liberals, according to CTV News projections.

“You effectively have the same team in place, at least, who has governed for the past 10 years.”

Nuttall said that while Carney made numerous comments on the campaign trail about supporting Canada’s energy industry, it remains unclear what exactly the next Liberal government’s energy priorities will be.

“Details were extremely light. We heard things like Canada needs to be a global energy superpower, then it pivoted towards a clean energy superpower, so there’s pros and cons,” he said.

“Given the minority government status, one positive coming out of this is the unlikelihood of an emissions cap actually becoming a law… it was something (the Liberals) were likely to try to do but given minority status that looks like it’s challenged.”

Nuttall said that the federal Liberals have “unfortunately” signalled that they intend to keep Bill C-69 – known as the Impact Assessment Act but referred to by critics as the “no pipelines bill” – in place, a bill the Conservative Party pledged to repeal if elected.

“It’s my view that as long as that remains Canadian law, we will never see another pipeline built in this country again, there just seems to be a philosophical difference in terms of how we can move the ball down the field,” he said.

“It’s critically important to grow our oil pipeline capacity to lower our customer concentration risk to the United States, it would put us in such a stronger position but that doesn’t seem to be the case.”

Source: BNN BIoomberg

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Adam

Forex

Dollar Index Stabilizes Near Key Technical Pivot as Trade and Labor Concerns Weigh

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is stabilizing just above a crucial short-term pivot at 99.100, which has emerged as a decisive inflection point for near-term direction. Price action on Tuesday shows modest gains, with the index up 0.25% to 99.28 after Monday’s 0.58% drop.

However, downside pressure remains evident, as the DXY teeters on the edge of a 7.7% two-month decline — its steepest since 2002 — reflecting broader macroeconomic skepticism around U.S. policy direction and capital outflows.

Euro Strength Weighs on Dollar Amid German Spending Plans

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market_1

Daily EUR/USD

Support for the euro surged in early March after Germany’s political leadership signaled a major fiscal expansion — a significant departure from its long-standing austerity stance.

This move revived optimism around eurozone growth and shifted capital away from the dollar. While the euro eased 0.38% to $1.1379 on Tuesday, it remains on course for its strongest monthly performance in over two years.

Safe-Haven Demand and Tariff Volatility

The dollar has also contended with a stronger yen and Swiss franc as investors rotated into safer currencies in response to geopolitical stress, particularly renewed U.S.-China tariff tensions. Although the Trump administration hinted at easing automotive tariffs, conflicting rhetoric has kept risk sentiment unstable.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s remarks that de-escalation depends on China underscore the uncertainty clouding progress. Analysts continue to flag that global bond and equity outflows from the U.S. indicate a “buyers’ strike” on dollar-denominated assets, despite a modest recovery in prices.

Labor Market Softening Despite Lower Layoffs

Labor data released Tuesday revealed a mixed picture. Job openings fell by 288,000 to 7.192 million in March, signaling growing employer caution.

Meanwhile, layoffs dropped to 1.558 million, indicating some underlying labor market stability. Still, hiring increased only marginally, and with federal workforce cuts looming and tariffs expected to disrupt supply chains, forward-looking labor strength remains uncertain.

Outlook: Dollar Index at Risk Without Clear Catalysts

US Dollar Forecast: DXY Struggles Near 99.10 as Tariff Risks and Jobs Data Pressure Market_2

Daily US Dollar Index (DXY)

The DXY’s short-term fate hinges on holding the 99.100 pivot. A break below this level could expose the index to the long-term support at 97.921. Resistance lies at 99.939 and 100.276; a confirmed breakout above these levels could open the path to 101.302.

However, lacking a bullish catalyst — such as stronger U.S. data or credible tariff resolution — the dollar remains vulnerable to further selling pressure, especially as traders weigh eurozone growth potential and seek safe-haven alternatives.

Source: fxempire

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Diana Wallace

Economic

NEW YORK (AP) — Amazon is not planning to list added tariff costs next to product prices on its site — despite speculation spanning from a report that claimed the e-commerce giant would soon show new import charges, as well as fiery comments from President Donald Trump's White House denouncing such a move.

The Trump administration's reaction appeared to be based on a misinterpretation of internal plans being considered by Amazon, rather than a final decision made by the company.

Amazon's Haul service — a recently launched, low-cost storefront — “considered the idea” of listing import charges on certain products, company spokesperson Tim Doyle said in a statement sent to The Associated Press. But this "was never approved and is not going to happen.”

Amazon launched Haul last year to sell electronics, apparel and other products priced under $20, aimed at competing against the success of China-founded rivals like Temu and Shein.

Earlier Tuesday, Punchbowl News had reported that Amazon planned to start showing how much of each product's cost derived from tariffs “right next to” its total listed price, citing an anonymous source familiar with the matter. While Amazon later confirmed that it would not be listing such added costs, the Trump administration was quick to criticize news of the move early Tuesday.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt accused Amazon of taking a "hostile and political act” — and further attacked the company by suggesting it was un-American.

“Amazon has partnered with a Chinese propaganda arm,” Leavitt said at a Tuesday briefing with reporters.

It was unclear if the administration had been in contact with Amazon about the company's response to tariffs — or potential ideas around communicating price hikes with shoppers. At Tuesday's briefing, Leavitt said she had “just got off the phone with the president about Amazon's announcement."

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos was one of a handful of powerful, ultra-wealthy tech titans who attended Trump's inauguration in January — filling some of the most exclusive seats right behind the president. Whether his relationship with the president has strained since has yet to be seen, and Leavitt declined to comment when asked by reporters Tuesday.

The tariffs imposed by Trump — and responding retaliation from targeted countries, notably China — threaten to increase prices for both consumers and businesses. Economists warned that these import taxes will hike prices for a range of goods consumers buy each day — and lead to worse inflationary pressure.

Source: Yahoo Finance

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Adam

Commodity

Gold prices are trading just off session lows after the latest data showed U.S. consumer sentiment declining further than expected this month.

The Consumer Confidence Index fell to 86 in April, below economists’ consensus forecast for a 87.5 reading and also below the upwardly revised 93.9 print in March, the Conference Board said on Tuesday.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, decreased by 0.9 points to 133.5, while the Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, dropped 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

Gold prices fell to session lows following the 10 am EST consumer sentiment data release, with spot gold last trading at $3,309.39 per ounce at the time of writing for a loss of 1.03% on the session.

Spot gold tests $3,300/oz support as U.S. Consumer Confidence falls to 86 in April _1

“Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic,” said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board. “The decline was largely driven by consumers’ expectations. The three expectation components—business conditions, employment prospects, and future income—all deteriorated sharply, reflecting pervasive pessimism about the future.”

“Notably, the share of consumers expecting fewer jobs in the next six months (32.1%) was nearly as high as in April 2009, in the middle of the Great Recession,” Guichard added. “In addition, expectations about future income prospects turned clearly negative for the first time in five years, suggesting that concerns about the economy have now spread to consumers worrying about their own personal situations. However, consumers’ views of the present have held up, containing the overall decline in the Index.”

April’s decline in confidence was seen across all age groups and most income groups. “The decline was sharpest among consumers between 35 and 55 years old, and consumers in households earning more than $125,000 a year,” the report said. “The decline in confidence was shared across all political affiliations.”

“High financial market volatility in April pushed consumers’ views about the stock market deeper into negative territory, with 48.5% expecting stock prices to decline over the next 12 months (the highest share since October 2011),” Guichard added. “Meanwhile, average 12-month inflation expectations reached 7% in April—the highest since November 2022, when the US was experiencing extremely high inflation.”

According to the write-in responses on what topics are affecting views of the economy, tariffs are now on top of consumers’ minds, with mentions of tariffs reaching an all-time high.

“Consumers explicitly mentioned concerns about tariffs increasing prices and having negative impacts on the economy,” the report noted. “Inflation and high prices remained important for consumers’ views about the economy: while the majority complained about the high cost of living, there were also some references to declines in the prices of gas and some food items. There were also numerous mentions of stock prices and uncertainty.”

The proportion of consumers anticipating a recession over the next 12 months rose to a two-year high, and the share of consumers expecting higher interest rates over the next 12 months continued to increase while the share of consumers expecting lower interest rates dropped further.