The ‘Year of The Tariff’ Gives Way to 2026 Worries of The Consequences

2026 will be the year the global economy learns to live with American protectionism, according to the latest analysis from Bloomberg Economics.

Shipping industry veteran John McCown framed it another way this week after US Trade Representative called 2025 "the year of the tariff:" "I believe 2026 will be the year of the tariff consequences," McCown wrote in a LinkedIn post.

According to Bloomberg Economics, President Donald Trump lifted the average US tariff rate to 14% from 2% after he returned to the White House, and imports into the world's largest economy have dropped while they've stay robust elsewhere.

Wild swings in tariffs through the year forced importers to juggle front-loading, shifting exemptions and surprise new duties. BE doesn't expect that whiplash to be repeated in 2026 and see US imports continuing to slow gradually as supply chains adjust.

Confusion, Refunds

Bloomberg Economics economists Nicole Gorton-Caratelli and Maeva Cousin expect a Supreme Court ruling striking down some of Trump's tariff authority "will likely sow short-term confusion and mean billions in refunds."

"Still, our base case is that these tariffs will be swiftly replaced," they wrote in a research note. "Rates may shift slightly as new trade deals kick in, exemptions are added and new investigations are completed, but we expect they'll largely hold where they are now."

Meanwhile, Trump sounds emboldened after data released Tuesday showed the US economy expanded in the third quarter at the fastest pace in two years. The Canadian economy also continues to display resilience despite the US"s import taxes.

"The TARIFFS are responsible for the GREAT USA Economic Numbers JUST ANNOUNCED…AND THEY WILL ONLY GET BETTER! Also, NO INFLATION & GREAT NATIONAL SECURITY. Pray for the U.S. Supreme Court!!!," the president wrote in a social media post.

Source: Bloomberg Europe