Tesla China Shipments Rise for Just The Third Time This Year

Stocks

Economic

Summary:

Tesla Inc.'s China factory shipments rose for only the third time this year amid a broader global downturn in sales for the Elon Musk-run company.

The company shipped 86,700 vehicles from its Shanghai plant in November, up 10% from a year earlier, according to preliminary data from China's Passenger Car Association Tuesday. This was the second-highest total for the company this year, trailing only September wholesales.

The gain represents a rare bright spot in China this year for Tesla, which is facing curbs on US federal subsidies for EVs and is on course for a second straight annual decline in global sales. Chinese EV giant BYD recently reported its third consecutive monthly decline in sales, while Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. and Xiaomi Corp. benefited from hit models.

Although the preliminary figures don't break down the proportion of Tesla's shipments that are exported, the bulk of the vehicles built at the Shanghai factory are sold locally. The plant can produce as many as 950,000 EVs a year, accounting for about 40% of the company's total manufacturing capacity.

Data from China's PCA also showed November new energy vehicle sales — which include plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles — increased 20% year-on-year.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Adam

Economic

Asia Market Wrap - Asian Stocks Largely Flat

Asian stock markets bounced back after a selloff on Monday, which was led by sharp drops in risky assets worldwide, including cryptocurrencies.

The main MSCI regional stock index climbed as much as 0.5% before pulling back slightly. Markets that rely heavily on technology, such as South Korea and Taiwan, performed well.

However, Japan's Nikkei stock index ended Tuesday virtually flat, trading quietly after a 1.9% tumble on Monday that pushed it below the key 50,000 level. The biggest positive mover for the Nikkei index on Tuesday was Fast Retailing (the owner of Uniqlo), whose 1.8% rise contributed significantly to the index's value due to its large size. Conversely, the biggest drag on the Nikkei was the startup investor SoftBank Group, a major local beneficiary of the AI boom, which tumbled 5.2%.

Overall, the Nikkei was almost evenly split, with 112 stocks rising and 111 falling.

The broader Topix index also added a negligible amount, less than 0.1%, recovering slightly from its 1.2% slide the day before.

Euro Area Inflation Edges Higher

Inflation in the Euro area rose slightly in November 2025, hitting 2.2%, up from 2.1% in October, and slightly higher than experts expected.

The price increases for services sped up to 3.5%, the highest rate since April, and energy prices fell more slowly than before. Prices for factory-made goods and for food, alcohol, and tobacco remained unchanged. When you strip out the volatile items like energy and food (Core Inflation), the rate held steady at 2.4%.

Among the biggest European economies, Germany’s inflation rate jumped to 2.6%, the highest it has been since February and now above the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target. In contrast, inflation slowed down slightly in Spain (to 3.1%) and dropped more significantly in the Netherlands (to 2.6%).

Meanwhile, inflation in both France (0.8%) and Italy (1.1%) remained well below the ECB's target.

European Session - European Stocks Eye Recovery

European stock markets experienced a drop on Tuesday, continuing the minor declines from the previous day. The main European index, the STOXX 600, was down 0.1%.

However, major country stock exchanges like those in Germany and France were both up slightly, gaining about 0.1% each. Healthcare stocks were the biggest reason for the overall decline, falling 0.3% due to losses in large companies like AstraZeneca and Novo Nordisk.

Despite this, the sector's losses were contained because the German pharmaceutical firm Bayer surged by about 15%. This jump happened after the U.S. government, led by President Donald Trump's administration, encouraged the Supreme Court to hear Bayer's appeal to stop thousands of lawsuits related to its Roundup weed-killer supposedly causing cancer.

Meanwhile, other sectors like consumer discretionary stocks (including luxury goods and car companies) also traded lower. In other news, the market is monitoring a scheduled meeting between President Trump's special envoy, Steve Witkoff, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner with Russian President Vladimir Putin to discuss a potential ceasefire in Ukraine.

Among individual stocks, FDJ United shares fell 4.2% after J.P. Morgan lowered its rating on the lottery and online game operator. Finally, investors are now looking ahead to the release of preliminary inflation data for the euro zone later today.

On the FX front, the US dollar remained steady on Tuesday, helped by a successful sale of Japanese government debt that reassured investors after a selloff in bonds globally earlier in the week. The dollar went up 0.1% against the Japanese yen, reaching 155.72, after a strong auction of 10-year Japanese government bonds stabilized the bond market.

The overall US dollar index, which measures its strength against other major currencies, saw minor ups and downs but was last trading slightly higher at 99.441, ending a seven-day losing streak.

The euro was holding steady at $1.1610 as peace talks regarding the war in Ukraine continued; European leaders showed strong support for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, particularly after a previous US-supported peace plan seemed to favor Russia, while a US special envoy traveled to Moscow for more discussions.

The British pound was 0.1% stronger at $1.3217, remaining near its highest level in a month, despite the head of Britain's fiscal watchdog resigning after his agency accidentally released details of the government's budget before the Finance Minister announced them.

Finally, the Australian dollar gained 0.2% to 0.6553, and the New Zealand dollar (kiwi) was steady at 0.57264.

Currency Power Balance

Oil prices remained mostly stable on Tuesday. Traders were assessing two main risks: the first was the ongoing threat from Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy facilities, and the second was the increasing tension between the US and Venezuela.

Specifically, Brent crude futures dipped slightly by 19 cents (0.3%) to trade at 62.98 a barrel.

The current price of spot gold dropped by 0.9% to $4,191.79/oz.

This decline was primarily driven by two factors: the first was the increase in US Treasury yields, which makes holding gold (which does not provide interest) less appealing to investors; and the second was profit-taking by traders who decided to sell their gold after the price had reached a six-week high in the previous trading session.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

The European session will be quiet today with a lack of high impact data releases.

The US session will also be a quiet one with very little in terms of data.

Markets Today: Euro Area Inflation Edges Higher, Gold Retreats Below $4200/oz. FTSE 100 Eyes Gains_2

Chart of the Day - FTSE Index

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 has held above the 100-day MA since Thursday afternoon.

This could be seen as a sign of bullish momentum with a potential breakout coming soon.

However, the longer price remains rangebound, this will increase investor angst and a potential pullback may materialize.

For now though, a bullish move appears more favorable as markets enter the final month of 2025.

Immediate support rests at 9686, 9661 and 9646 respectively.

A move higher may encounter some resistance at 9750, 9800 and 9850.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 2, 2025

Source: marketpulse

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Glendon

Forex

Economic

British finance minister Rachel Reeves was not misleading in comments she made about the tough budget situation she faced which have been attacked by opposition lawmakers, an official from Britain's fiscal watchdog said on Tuesday.

In a speech on November 4, Reeves appeared to lay the groundwork to raise income tax rates which would have broken the Labour Party's promise to voters before the 2024 election.

She cited a "weaker than previously thought" productivity forecast by the Office for Budget Responsibility - whose projections underpin government budgets - but did not mention higher OBR tax revenue forecasts which offset it.

Political opponents have accused Reeves of misleading the public in the run-up to the budget and seeking to find a reason to raise taxes to justify an increase in welfare spending, a charge she denies.

'NOT MISLEADING' TO CALL FISCAL SITUATION VERY CHALLENGING

Reeves last week announced 26 billion pounds ($34.3 billion)in tax increases to remain on track to meet her fiscal targets and fund an increase in welfare for families with children.

David Miles, a member of the OBR's Budget Responsibility Committee, said the forecasts shared with Reeves before her speech on November 4 showed she had a "wafer thin" buffer for meeting her fiscal targets and the costs of a u-turn on welfare savings had not been included at that stage.

"I don't think it was misleading for the chancellor to say that the fiscal position was very challenging at the beginning of that week," Miles told lawmakers on parliament's Treasury Committee.

However, Miles questioned briefings given to media later in November in which unnamed government sources said the government could avoid raising income tax rates in the budget thanks to improvements to the OBR's economic forecasts.

British government borrowing costs fell sharply in the bond market after those briefings.

"It certainly didn't reflect anything that was news from the OBR being fed into the government," Miles said, saying the changes in the watchdog's forecast rounds were small.

ROW OVER FORECASTS

The OBR last week took the unusual step of publishing a letter setting out how those forecasts had evolved.

Miles said the agency felt it had to explain the process and show it was not behind the sharp changes in expectations about the budget.

"The letter really was to try and remove misconceptions about the OBR being either the patsy that was doing what the government wanted, or that through its own fickle behaviour changing from one day to the next... that was making it virtually impossible for the government," he said.

The Treasury responded frostily to the letter last week, saying it welcomed the OBR's confirmation that such explanations would not become usual practice.

The chair of the Treasury Committee, Meg Hillier, said lawmakers would discuss the early release of the OBR's economic and fiscal outlook report - which included all the key details of Reeves' budget - at a future date.

The OBR's chair, Richard Hughes, resigned on Monday after an investigation by the agency into the lapse found fault with the leadership of the watchdog.

($1 = 0.7583 pounds)

Source: TradingView

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Adam

Stocks

OPENING CALL

Stock futures were ticking higher and government bond yields held steady early Tuesday, a day after a worldwide selloff in risky assets.

"U.S. futures are fairly flat, indicating that the selloff has paused for now," Deutsche Bank said.

Stocks dropped in the previous session as risk sentiment weakened across markets, characterized by a deep cryptocurrency selloff .

Bitcoin recovered some ground on Tuesday but held below $90,000.

There was little sign of a broader rebound early in the day with few obvious catalysts for U.S. markets immediately ahead.

Investors continue to watch the economic backdrop amid expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next week.

Stocks to Watch

Apple is shaking up its artificial-intelligence ranks, poaching a Microsoft executive and reorganizing after announcing the retirement of its top AI leader.

Costco became one of the biggest companies to sue the Trump administration over tariffs, seeking a refund should the Supreme Court rule sweeping duties illegal.

Comcast, Netflix and Paramount all submitted second offers for Warner Bros. Discovery assets, The Wall Street Journal reported. Warner Bros stock gained 1.5% premarket.

Credo Technology swung to a quarterly profit due to revenue from AI training and inference.

MongoDB hiked annual guidance as booming artificial-intelligence demand bolsters revenue. The stock jumped by about one-fifth premarket.

Economic Insight

The picture for the global economy next year is one of resilience, BNP Paribas said.

"A combination of easier monetary policies, fiscal stimulus and solid household balance sheets has provided shelter from a range of headwinds."

Market insight

DBS said the cryptocurrency selloff may suggest major risk-off sentiment going into the new year.

Nonetheless, while the declines could be a point of concern for the U.S. economic outlook, DBS notes that such digital assets "don't make or break the U.S. economy."

Watch For:

ADP National Employment Report for November; Import Prices for September; Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization for September; EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report; earnings from CrowdStrike

Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:

-Why Kevin Hassett Is Winning the Fed Chair Race Before It Has Ended

-Superlong Japanese Government Bond Yields Keep Climbing as Rate Hike Bets Firm

-Commercial Real Estate Is Getting Too Cheap to Ignore

MARKET WRAPS

Forex:

The dollar stayed weak after hitting a two-and-a-half-week low in the previous session on growing expectations of a Fed rate cut , cemented by a worse-than-expected ISM manufacturing report.

The euro held steady after data showed eurozone headline inflation surprisingly accelerated in November but the core measure was unexpectedly unchanged.

Sterling was flat against the euro. Convera said the pound remained heavily undervalued against the euro when measured against the U.K.-German inflation-adjusted real rate differential

Bonds:

The 10-year Treasury yield was flat. The previous day's rise in yields was mostly triggered by the growing likelihood that Trump had picked economic adviser Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair.

Market gloom overnight on Wall Street somewhat brightened after Japan's 10-year debt auction drew solid demand , but risk recovery could be fragile.

The auction helped stabilize JGBs and other sovereigns, Swissquote noted.

Rising Japan yields and the potential repatriation of billions back to Japan could dim the outlook for risk assets.

BNP Paribas said long-dated government bond yields in the U.S., Japan and the eurozone were set to rise amid continued caution on long-dated debt and high levels of supply.

Payden & Rygel expects 2026 to remain constructive for fixed income as bonds should benefit from a resilient global economy , moderating inflation and easier monetary conditions.

UniCredit maintains a neutral position on global bonds but keeps its overweight recommendation for emerging market debt.

"Despite lingering volatility, emerging market bonds continue to offer appealing carry and diversification benefits, supported by relatively sound fundamentals and easing inflation in several economies."

Energy:

Brent crude fell slightly in early trading as investors tracked continuing geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Eastern Europe.

Unraveling of Russian supply chains in Eastern Europe and fears over supply from Venezuela continued to weigh on investors and present a downside risk to prices looking ahead, Citi said.

Julius Baer said recent geopolitical tensions aren't likely to change the long-term outlook for oil prices.

Metals:

Gold and silver fell back slightly in early trading, with silver retreating from record highs Monday driven by U.S. rate-cut expectations and supply tightness.

Julius Baer said silver prices could double for the first time since 1979.

Triggers for the rise include silver's addition to the U.S. critical minerals list and mounting expectations for a U.S. rate cut.

Iron ore

Prices were higher, supported by improving fundamentals . Supply and demand are getting better, Guangfa Futures said, but some analysts remain neutral on the black metal.

TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES

Samsung's Next Salvo Against Apple: A Triple-Folding Smartphone

SEOUL-The U.S. will soon get its first mass-market smartphone that folds not just once, but twice.

Samsung Electronics' Galaxy Z TriFold is expected to hit the shelves in the U.S. as early as the first quarter of 2026, after it goes on sale in South Korea and elsewhere this month.

Bayer Shares Jump After White House Backs Supreme Court Review in Roundup Case

Bayer shares rose after the company said it welcomed the U.S. Solicitor General's support for a Supreme Court review of a case that could curtail longrunning litigation regarding its Roundup weed-killer.

Shares in Bayer were up by as much as 14% in early European trading after the White House backed its bid for a review by the Court.

OpenAI's Altman Declares 'Code Red' to Improve ChatGPT as Google Threatens AI Lead

OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman told employees Monday that the company was declaring a "code red" effort to improve the quality of ChatGPT and delaying other products as a result, according to an internal memo viewed by The Wall Street Journal.

Altman said OpenAI had more work to do on the day-to-day experience of its chatbot, including improving personalization features for users, increasing its speed and reliability, and allowing it to answer a wider range of questions.

Growth to Slow as Tariffs Bite, But AI Investments May Cushion the Blow

The U.S. and global economies are set to slow next year as higher tariffs take full effect, but could grow more strongly than expected if the AI investment boom "broadens," the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said.

In a quarterly report on Tuesday, the Paris-based research body forecast the U.S. economy will grow 2% this year and 1.7% next year, having expanded by 2.8% in 2024. In September, the OECD projected growth of 1.8% this year and 1.5% in 2026. It sees the world's largest economy regaining momentum in 2027, with growth of 1.9%.

Eurozone Inflation Picks Up as Services Prices Accelerate

The annual rate of inflation in the eurozone rose further above the European Central Bank's target in November, making another cut in the key interest rate less likely.

The European Union's statistics agency Tuesday said consumer prices in the 20 countries that share the euro were 2.2% higher than a year earlier, an increase in the annual rate of inflation from the 2.1% recorded in October. The ECB targets an inflation rate of 2%.

The U.S. is Building Pipelines; Investors Have Mixed Feelings

North America is in the midst of a record pipeline-building boom, with companies laying hundreds of miles of new pipes across the U.S. and Canada. But investors have been wary of buying in, because similar booms have led to messy busts in the past.

Pipeline stocks have done just OK this year, and some have done worse than that. A decade ago, pipeline companies were forced to cut their dividends when an oil bust caused producers to stop drilling.

Bitcoin Rout Picks Up Steam as Investors Fret Over a New 'Crypto Winter'

The rout in cryptocurrency is intensifying.

Bitcoin tumbled more than 6% on Monday, its biggest one-day drop since March. The world's largest digital currency traded at $85,468 as of 4 p.m. Eastern time in New York and is down more than 30% from a peak above $126,000 set in early October. The selloff has spilled into other digital coins, including ether and solana, and pulled down stocks tied to the crypto market such as exchange operator Coinbase Global and Strategy, Michael Saylor's bitcoin-accumulation company.

Chinese Rare-Earth Dealers Find Ways to Dodge Beijing's Export Restrictions

Chinese rare-earth magnet companies are finding workarounds to their government's onerous export restrictions, as they seek to keep sales flowing to Western buyers without falling afoul of Chinese authorities.

The companies are tweaking magnet formulas to avoid using certain restricted rare-earth elements and devising other strategies to get powerful magnets out of the country, like embedding them in motors, according to employees of several large Chinese magnet companies and Western firms that buy from them.

Trump's Push to End the Ukraine War Is Sowing Fresh Fear About NATO's Future

BERLIN-This week will bring a split screen that will reinforce growing doubts in Europe about the American commitment to the alliance that has served as the bedrock of Western unity since the end of World War II.

Source: morningstar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Stocks

London stocks had pushed higher by midday on Tuesday, with banks leading the gains after they cleared the Bank of England’s stress tests.

The FTSE 100 was up 0.4% at 9,740.07, following a flat start to the session.

Investors were mulling the latest data from Nationwide, which showed house prices continued to rise in November, although the pace of growth eased slightly.

House prices grew by 1.8% year-on-year, down on October’s 2.4% spike but ahead of expectations for a 1.4% uplift.

Month-on-month, seasonally adjusted growth was 0.3%, also ahead of consensus, for 0%.

The average house price now stands at £272,998.

Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s chief economist, said: "Against a backdrop of subdued consumer confidence and signs of weakening in the labour market, this performance indicates resilience, especially since mortgage rates are more than double the level they were before Covid, and house prices are close to all-time highs."

In last month’s Budget, chancellor Rachel Reeves announced a council tax surcharge for properties valued at more than £2m.

However, Gardner said the so-called mansion tax was unlikely to have a "significant" impact on the housing market.

"The surcharge, which is not being introduced until April 2028, will apply to less than 1% of properties in England, and around 3% in London," he noted.

Looking forward, Nationwide said housing affordability was set to to improve "modestly", should income growth continue to outpace house price growth, as expected.

Gardner said: "Borrowing costs are likely to moderate a little further, if Bank Rate is lowered again in the coming quarters.

"This should support buyer demand, especially since household balance sheets are strong."

Investors were also digesting the latest shop price monitor from the British Retail Consortium and NIQ, which showed that shop prices fell in November as retailers started to launch their Black Friday deals and promotions.

In equity markets, Lloyds, Barclays, Standard Chartered and NatWest were among the top performers after the Bank of England said all seven of the biggest lenders passed its stress tests.

In its half-year Financial Stability Report, the Bank flagged increased risks to the UK’s financial system, including sky-high valuations of tech companies, while also trimming the amount of capital banks need to hold in reserve.

However, despite the heighted risk climate, the BoE opted to cut capital requirements for the UK’s biggest banks after they passed its latest stress tests.

It found that the sector was well capitalised, and that UK household and corporate aggregate indebtedness remained low. As a result, the BoE lowered the appropriate benchmark for the level of Tier 1 capital requirements to 13% from 14%, the equivalent to a CET1 ratio of around 11%. Analysts had been largely expecting the reduction.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "The UK banking sector has passed the Bank of England’s stress test with flying colours.

"The industry and authorities learned some valuable lessons from the global financial crisis in 2008 and banks have subsequently become stronger entities. No-one wanted a repeat of what happened 17 years ago when various banks had to be bailed out. That crisis led to UK banks being pushed to have more capital to withstand any shocks.

"The latest stress test means that major UK banks would be able to cope with a severe decline in the economy and provide ongoing support to consumers and businesses.

"Importantly, the stress test results have given the Bank of England confidence to cut its estimate of how much capital banks need to hold. The government will no doubt welcome this news, given its desire to encourage more lending to drive economic growth."

Elsewhere, Ladbrokes owner Entain rose after an upgrade to ‘overweight’ from ‘neutral’ at JPMorgan.

Persimmon and Taylor Wimpey were both high risers after an upgrade to ‘outperform’ from ‘sector perform’ by RBC Capital Markets. In a broader note on the UK housebuilding sector, RBC said the vital statistics of the UK housing market are in good shape.

"Mortgage approvals for house purchase and housing transaction levels suggest a normal market and house prices are surprisingly stable," it said. "The UK housing market, like many of us, has been fitter in the past, but it is certainly a long way from being on life support."

British Land advanced after Panmure Liberum upgraded the shares to ‘buy’ from ‘hold’ and lifted the price target to 490p from 424p, citing rent reversion upside.

Victrex shot to the top of the FTSE 250 as the polymers group said it has launched a "profit improvement plan" targeting £10m of savings, after underlying earnings dropped 21% over the 12 months to 30 September.

On the downside, Berkeley and Barratt Redrow lost ground after RBC Capital downgraded the stocks to ‘underperform’ from ‘outperform’ and to ‘sector perform’ from ‘outperform’, respectively.

Source: Sharecast

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Winkelmann

Commodity

Economic

The European steel industry is positioned for a significant 2026 rebound after bottoming in 2025, with benchmark hot rolled coil (HRC) prices forecast to reach $750/t, up more than $100/t from third quarter lows of $650/t, according to analysts at Jefferies in a note dated Tuesday.

The brokerage projects diversified steel giant ArcelorMittal will achieve €8.3 billion EBITDA in 2026 versus €8.2 billion consensus, Swedish specialty steelmaker SSAB SEK13.2 billion versus SEK13.1 billion consensus, and Austrian steel and technology group Voestalpine €1.7 billion versus €1.72 billion consensus.

This follows 2025 trough levels of €6.6 billion, SEK10.2 billion, and €1.5 billion respectively for the three producers.

The recovery hinges on the European Commission's October 7 proposal to slash steel import quotas by 50% to 18.3mT and double tariffs on non-quota volumes to 50% from 25%, effective July 2026.

This should reduce import penetration from 25% back toward 15% and boost domestic production by 10mT, driving industry operating rates up more than 10% from current 65-67% toward targeted 80-85% levels.

ArcelorMittal cited potential reductions of 8mT in flat steel imports and 2mT in long steel imports.

The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) beginning January 2026 will add €40–70/t to import prices, while Germany's €500 billion infrastructure program should boost demand 1-2% annually from 2027.

Every €50/t price increase would boost 2026 EBITDA by 20% for ArcelorMittal, 13% for SSAB, 15% for Voestalpine, 57% for German producer Salzgitter, and 24% for industrial conglomerate ThyssenKrupp.

A 5% volume increase would add 5-18% to EBITDA, with Salzgitter seeing the greatest upside at 18%.

Current pricing shows US HRC at $981.1/t, EU HRC at $712.7/t, and China export HRC at $457.0/t as of December 1.

Raw materials stand at iron ore $90.6/t and premium hard coking coal $172.6/t. ArcelorMittal has already raised December delivery prices to €630/t from July's €560/t trough.

However, European steel stocks already rallied substantially in 2025, with ArcelorMittal up 41.3% year-to-date, SSAB up 50.7%, Salzgitter up 65.2%, and Voestalpine up 58.5%, compared to the Stoxx600's 14% gain.

Valuation multiples re-rated by more than 1 turn to approximately 5x EV/EBITDA from 3.5x, now exceeding the 10-year average of 4.5x.

Jefferies cautioned that with 2026 forecasts broadly in-line with consensus, the market already assumes recovery reflecting more than $100/t price increases and 3-5% volume growth.

EU steel stocks are broadly pricing recovered 2026 and mid-cycle EBITDA on 10-year average multiples, the brokerage said.

For shares to work from current levels, actual volume and price-driven EBITDA upgrades need to materialize. The brokerage prefers SSAB in carbon steel and Spanish stainless producer Acerinox for 2026.

Source: Investing

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Gerik

Economic

Sharp Sales Decline Highlights Sector Fragility

China’s embattled real estate market is still in search of a floor, with November data pointing to a worsening slump. Industry figures revealed that the top 100 developers recorded a 36% year-on-year drop in property sales value. The magnitude of this decline illustrates the prolonged contraction in housing demand and reflects weakened buyer confidence, despite repeated policy support efforts.

Morgan Stanley further emphasized the severity of the downturn, estimating that average sales among 25 major developers declined by 42% compared to the same period last year. These figures suggest not just seasonal weakness but a deep-rooted structural deterioration that continues to weigh on the broader economy.

Analysts Sound Alarm Over Deteriorating Conditions

Hui Shan, chief China economist at Goldman Sachs, described the worsening property data as “real and concerning.” Her assessment underscores the causal relationship between persistent financial instability among developers, suppressed consumer sentiment, and delayed investment in residential property.

Despite multiple rounds of policy easing including interest rate cuts, relaxed home purchase restrictions, and liquidity support for developers the market has failed to respond in a meaningful way. The lack of recovery suggests that regulatory measures, while necessary, have yet to restore confidence or solve underlying imbalances in the housing sector.

A Market Bottom Remains Elusive

The continued slide in sales points to a protracted correction phase rather than a quick rebound. Key problems such as high developer debt, oversupply in lower-tier cities, and declining population growth compound the difficulty of restoring equilibrium in the sector. These issues contribute to a feedback loop of falling prices, eroded trust, and sluggish investment.

Without a visible turnaround in buyer sentiment or a breakthrough in developer financing, the market remains at risk of further decline. The downward trend in November sales extends a multi-year downturn that began in 2021, when policy tightening triggered the collapse of major property firms like Evergrande.

China’s property market, once a cornerstone of national economic growth, continues to contract under the weight of debt, oversupply, and policy fatigue. While stimulus efforts have provided temporary relief, the November data highlight a persistent lack of demand and entrenched investor pessimism. Until fundamental confidence is restored, the market is unlikely to find a firm bottom, posing continued headwinds to China's broader economic recovery.