Putin Warns Xi as US Nuclear Treaty Nears Collapse

Russian President Vladimir Putin informed Chinese President Xi Jinping on Wednesday that the last major nuclear arms treaty with the United States is on the verge of expiring, a development that could upend global strategic stability.

In a video call, Putin highlighted that the New START treaty is set to expire on Thursday, and Washington has yet to respond to Moscow's proposals. "As you know, on September 22, 2025, we proposed to the Americans to extend the key quantitative limits for one year as voluntary self-restrictions," Putin stated. "However, we have not yet received an official response from the Americans."

Despite the uncertainty, the Russian leader affirmed that his country remains open "to seeking negotiated ways to ensure strategic stability" and will act "in a measured and responsible manner, based on a thorough analysis of the overall security situation."

Washington's Push for a Broader Deal

The Trump administration has reportedly been preparing to let the current arms control framework with Russia lapse. For years, President Trump has expressed a desire to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement that would also include China, a goal that echoes discussions from the Obama administration.

Figure 1: China's expanding strategic arsenal is a key factor in the US push for a broader arms control agreement beyond the existing New START framework.

According to reports, the potential dissolution of the treaty comes at a difficult time, with both Russia and China expanding their nuclear capabilities and Moscow issuing threats over the conflict in Ukraine. In preparation for a world without New START, the Defense Department has held a series of internal meetings, though the specifics of these discussions have not been made public.

The Risks of an Uncontrolled Arms Race

Experts warn that the end of the treaty could lead to a more dangerous and unpredictable geopolitical landscape.

"We're looking at a very uncertain path ahead," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Arms Control Association. "Unless Trump and Putin reach some sort of understanding soon, it's not unlikely that Russia and the U.S. will start to upload more warheads on their missiles."

Russia's Offer Remains on the Table

Moscow has consistently signaled its readiness to prevent the treaty's expiration. The Kremlin has clarified its willingness to extend the agreement for another year to provide time for more substantial negotiations on a long-term deal.

Dmitry Medvedev, former Russian president and current deputy chairman of the country's Security Council, confirmed this stance on Monday. He stated that Russia's offer to quickly extend the treaty "remains on the table" and "if the American side wants to extend it, then this can be done."

Medvedev told the newspaper Kommersant that Moscow might have to wait until the treaty's expiry date of February 5 for a final answer from the U.S.

When asked for a comment, a White House official told Newsweek that "The president will decide the path forward on nuclear arms control, which he will clarify on his own timeline." President Trump is widely known for a decision-making style that often involves last-minute actions to build suspense and leverage.

What New START Accomplishes

The New START treaty has been a cornerstone of strategic arms control for over a decade. Signed in 2010 by Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev, it provides critical transparency and limits on the world's two largest nuclear arsenals.

According to Monica Duffy Toft, a professor at The Fletcher School's Center for Strategic Studies, the treaty "lowered the risk that either side will misinterpret normal military activity as preparation for a nuclear strike."

The agreement's key provisions include:

• A cap of 1,550 deployed strategic warheads for each side.

• A limit of 700 deployed delivery systems, including missiles, bombers, and submarines.

• A mutual inspection system that allows each country to monitor the other's nuclear sites.