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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6632.20
6632.20
6632.20
6733.31
6623.91
-40.42
-0.61%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
46558.46
46558.46
46558.46
47123.99
46494.63
-119.38
-0.26%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
22105.35
22105.35
22105.35
22521.38
22069.24
-206.62
-0.93%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
100.000
100.000
100.080
100.190
99.880
-0.070
-0.07%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.14432
1.14432
1.14440
1.14562
1.14185
+0.00274
+ 0.24%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.32520
1.32520
1.32530
1.32657
1.32245
+0.00291
+ 0.22%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
5016.47
5016.47
5016.86
5030.99
4967.47
-2.65
-0.05%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
97.996
97.996
98.031
99.885
95.171
+0.839
+ 0.86%
--
- All
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Charizard 
How's gold doing?
Could it have a small pump up to like 5070 before resuming the selling trend?
Urek Mazino 
Urek Mazino
@CharizardBut that's not entirely certain buddy
Charizard
Urek Mazino
Urek Mazino
@CharizardDXY holds firm above 99, US interest rates show no signs of an early pivot
Urek Mazino
@CharizardTherefore, I think this rebound was just a fake out to trap the bull
Charizard
Urek Mazino
Urek Mazino
@CharizardI don't quite agree with anyone who thinks gold has already bottomed out
Charizard
Urek Mazino
Urek Mazino
@CharizardOr I will wait for a sell bounce if it goes up to 5070
Urek Mazino
@CharizardHowever, you need to be careful and stop tight because of high volatility buddy
Nawhdir Øt 
AKU CEMAS !
Charizard
Nawhdir Øt
Nawhdir Øt
Charizard
Nawhdir Øt
@Nawhdir Øt
good luck with it
Nawhdir Øt
- All
- Russia-Ukraine Conflict
- Middle East Flashpoint
Market navigator: week of 29 September 2025
Summary:
Markets faced new U.S. tariffs, shutdown risks, strong U.S. data, and Russia-Ukraine tensions. Equities slipped, USD/JPY neared 150, Bitcoin dropped. Ahead: China PMIs, RBA decision, and key U.S. jobs data.
What happened last week
New tariffs announced: The US will implement substantial levies effective 1 October, comprising 100% tariffs on branded pharmaceuticals, 25% on heavy trucks, 50% on kitchen cabinets, and 30% on upholstered furniture. Europe and Australia bear the primary impact on pharmaceutical exports, whilst Mexico and China represent the principal trading partners affected in trucks and furniture. This policy initiative may intensify US-China trade tensions ahead of the truce expiration on 10 November.
US government shutdown: Congressional Democrats and Republicans face a 1 October deadline to avert a government shutdown, with challenging prospects as President Trump declined negotiations with Democrats, characterising their healthcare funding requirements as 'unreasonable'.
Resilient US economy: Second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was revised upward from 3.3% to 3.8%, whilst durable goods orders expanded 2.9% month-on-month, significantly exceeding consensus of -0.5%. Initial jobless claims indicated corporate reluctance to implement redundancies. These indicators provide compelling evidence supporting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members advocating measured approaches to interest rate adjustments.
Russia-Ukraine conflict intensifies: The Kremlin declared 'no alternative' but to continue operations following Trump's policy shift supporting Ukraine's territorial recovery. Russia rejected this prospect while proposing tax increases for defence expenditure. Ukraine escalated drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure, with Russia's NATO airspace violations heightening European security concerns.
Markets in focus
US equities retreat as valuation concerns mount
Major US equity indices retreated from historic peaks last week, driven by profit-taking activities and mounting concerns regarding elevated valuations. The S&P 500 declined 0.3%, whilst the technology-focused Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5% and the traditional blue-chip Dow Jones returned -0.1%.
Corporate developments featured NVIDIA's commitment of up to $100 billion in partnership with OpenAI to deploy artificial intelligence data centres with 10 gigawatts of capacity. This follows similar arrangements between technology companies, including OpenAI's investment commitment in Oracle, which propelled Oracle's share price close to 40% in a single trading session. Analysts are expressing increasing concern regarding a potential AI bubble, as these circular transactions may create misleading perceptions of industry growth and artificially inflate technology company valuations.
The US Tech 100 experienced a pullback from historical highs last week as the relative strength index (RSI) reached 78, indicating overbought conditions. The index found support at the lower boundary of the ascending channel established from mid-May levels, suggesting a favourable position to extend beyond 25,000 towards the channel's upper boundary as Wave 5 under Elliott Wave theory. The 20-day moving average (MA) provides immediate support for any retracements at approximately 24,200.
Figure 1: US Tech 100 index (daily) price chart
as of 29 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
USD/JPY approaches 150 on divergent economic momentum
The USD/JPY currency pair briefly touched 149.95 on Friday, reaching its highest level in nearly two months, as the US dollar regained strength on resilient economic fundamentals. Second-quarter GDP growth, durable goods orders, and latest initial jobless claims data collectively demonstrate stronger-than-anticipated US economic performance.
Conversely, Japan's manufacturing sector contracted for the 14th consecutive month, with the September S&P Global Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) declining to 48.4, below market expectations of 50.2. Consumer prices excluding fresh food in Tokyo, commonly utilised as a leading indicator of broader Japanese inflation trends, increased 2.5% year-on-year. Despite exceeding the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) 2% target, inflation has gradually decreased from May's peak of 3.6%, reducing urgency for a BoJ rate increase in October. Bond futures markets currently price a 35% probability for a rate hike, down from approximately 50% a week prior. The Japanese yen may experience heightened volatility ahead of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election on 4 October to nominate Japan's new Prime Minister.
USD/JPY finally breached resistance at 148.8 after multiple challenges since August. The currency pair now trades above all key moving averages, including the 200-day MA which significantly influences the pair's medium-term direction. For USD/JPY to confirm the reversal of the bearish trend established since start of the year, it must move back above the uptrend line established since April. Clearing this level may provide USD/JPY with substantial opportunity to challenge the recent peak of 150.9. Failure to clear this resistance would indicate resumption of range-bound trading between 146.8 and 148.8.
Figure 2: USD/JPY (daily) price chart
as of 28 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Bitcoin faces pressure amid $3.2bn liquidation wave
Bitcoin continued its decline last week, driven by US dollar strength, diminished risk appetite, and significant liquidations of long positions.
Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds recorded $897 million in net outflows between 22 and 26 September according to Coinglass. The cryptocurrency data analysis platform revealed liquidations of long positions exceeding $3.2 billion during the same period, indicating substantial market deleveraging. Options worth $22 billion expiring on 26 September contributed additional price volatility.
The options market lacks clear directional consensus, with open interest on the most popular call option expiring 3 October targeting the $122,000 level, whilst bearish positioning anticipates the cryptocurrency declining below either $105,000 or $100,000 on Deribit.
Following the breach below the 100-day MA, Bitcoin's technical momentum further deteriorated, with the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator crossing into negative territory. This movement confirms our previous analysis identifying Bitcoin's entry into Wave C under Elliott Wave theory, with $107,232 serving as critical support. A rebound above this support level could potentially return Bitcoin to the recent high of $117,877. Conversely, failure to maintain support opens the possibility of testing the 200-day MA at around $104,300.
Figure 3: Bitcoin (daily) price chart
as of 28 September 2025. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The week ahead
The forthcoming week presents an exceptionally active economic calendar, with particular emphasis on Chinese manufacturing activity, US labour market dynamics, and Australian monetary policy decisions.
China's dual purchasing managers' index (PMI) readings on Tuesday assume critical importance as markets scrutinise whether manufacturing activity is able to sustain its recovery. The official National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 49.4 in August, but remains in contractionary territory for the fifth consecutive month. Markets will closely examine whether recent stimulus measures and improving export conditions can propel the index above 50, signalling meaningful recovery in industrial activity. Failure to achieve expansion would intensify concerns regarding China's economic trajectory and potentially prompt additional policy support measures.
Australia's Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) interest rate decision on Tuesday is expected to maintain rates unchanged at 3.6% following recent above-consensus headline inflation data and Governor Bullock's commentary on robust economic conditions. However, accompanying policy statements will be scrutinised for signals regarding future policy direction. Hawkish rhetoric suggesting prolonged restrictive policy could strengthen the Australian dollar, whilst dovish indications of potential future cuts might weaken the currency and support equities.
US employment data dominates the week's calendar. Wednesday's ADP employment change and JOLTS job openings data will provide preliminary insights into labour market conditions, whilst Friday's non-farm payrolls are expected to demonstrate modest recovery to 39,000 new positions after August's disappointing 22,000 reading. The unemployment rate is anticipated to remain steady at 4.3%, though any deterioration could reinforce expectations of at least two additional quarter-point Federal Reserve cuts. However, the release of key US economic data remains contingent upon avoiding a government shutdown on 1 October.
Figure 4: US employment data
Source: ig
To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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