JOLTs Job Openings Drop To 7.192 Million; SP500 Rebounds From Session Lows

Economic

Summary:

U.S. job openings fell to 7.192 million and consumer confidence dropped sharply, fueling hopes of a Fed rate cut. The SP500 rebounded, while the dollar and gold faced mixed reactions.

On April 29, 2025, the U.S. released JOLTs Job Openings report for March. The report indicated that JOLTs Job Openings declined from 7.480 million in February to 7.192 million in March, compared to analyst forecast of 7.48 million.

Today, traders also had a chance to take a look at CB Consumer Confidence report for April. The report showed that CB Consumer Confidence decreased from 92.9 to 86.0, compared to analyst consensus of 87.5.

Present Situation Index declined from 134.4 to 133.5, while Expectations Index dived from 66.9 to 54.4. The Expectations Index reached its lowest level since October 2011. Tariff uncertainty put significant pressure on consumers’ expectations, but the views on the present situation have been stable.

U.S. Dollar Index settled near the 99.10 level as traders reacted to the reports. U.S. dollar is trying to rebound after yesterday’s pullback, but weak job market data may put additional pressure on the American currency.

Gold made an attempt to settle below the $3300 level after the release of the reports. Gold traders continue to take profits near historic highs. At this point, gold needs additional positive catalysts to gain upside momentum.

SP500 tested the 5540 level as traders bet that weakness of the job market may force the Fed to cut rates despite inflation risks.

Source : fxempire

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Warren Takunda

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Americans’ confidence in the economy slumped for the fifth straight month to the lowest level since the onset of the COIVD-19 pandemic as anxiety over the impact of tariffs takes a heavy toll on consumer expectations for future growth.

The Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index fell 7.9 points in April to 86, its lowest reading since May 2020. Nearly one-third of consumers expect hiring to slow in the coming months, nearly matching the level reached in April 2009, when the economy was mired in the Great Recession.

The figures reflect a rapidly souring mood among Americans, most of whom expect prices to rise because of the widespread tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump. About half of Americans are also worried about the potential for a recession, according to a survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center.

A measure of Americans’ short-term expectations for their income, business conditions and the job market plunged 12.5 points to 54.4, the lowest level in more than 13 years. The reading is well below 80, which typically signals a recession ahead.

How this gloomy mood translates into spending, hiring, and growth will become clearer in the coming days and weeks. On Wednesday, the government will report on U.S. economic growth during the first three months of the year, and economists believe it will show a sharp slowdown as consumers pulled back on spending after a strong winter holiday shopping season.

And on Friday the Labor Department will release its latest report on hiring and the unemployment rate. Overall, economists expect it should still show steady job gains, though some forecast it could show sharply reduced hiring.

The sharp decline in consumer confidence also likely reflected the sharp swings in stock and bond prices that roiled financial markets. While all age groups and most income brackets reported lower confidence, the decline was steepest among households earning more than $125,000 and among consumers 35 to 55 years old.

Though major U.S. markets rebounded over the past week, the S&P 500 is still down 6% for the year and the Dow Jones has lost 5%. The growth-heavy Nasdaq is down 10% in 2025.

Source: AP

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

U.S. consumer confidence slumped to a nearly five-year low in March as growing concerns over tariffs weighed on the economic outlook.

The Conference Board said on Tuesday its consumer confidence index dropped 7.9 points to 86.0 this month, the lowest reading since May 2020. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index sliding to 87.5.

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, fell 0.9 point to 133.5. The Expectations Index, based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, slid 12.5 points to 54.4 - the lowest level since October 2011 and well below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead.

"Consumer confidence declined for a fifth consecutive month in April, falling to levels not seen since the onset of the COVID pandemic," said Stephanie Guichard, Senior Economist, Global Indicators at The Conference Board.

The government is expected to report on Wednesday that economic growth braked sharply in the first quarter, amid a surge in imports as businesses raced to bring in goods to avoid higher costs from duties.

Consumer spending also likely slowed down considerably, hampered by still-high inflation as well as worries about the impact of tariffs on the economy, which prompted some households to cut back on consumption to preserve savings.

Gross domestic product likely increased at a 0.3% annualized rate in the January-March quarter, which would be the weakest since the second quarter of 2022, a Reuters survey showed.

Risks are tilted to the downside. The Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting GDP declining at a 0.4% rate after adjusting for imports and exports of gold. The economy grew at a 2.4% pace in the fourth quarter.

Source: Yahoo Finance

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

The Liberal party have won the election in Canada with 154 seats won vs 131 for the conservatives. There are 31 seats which have not been called.

While the Liberals will form the government, it remains unclear if they will control a majority of votes in the House of Commons or require support from other parties to pass legislation. It would take a total of 172 seats to reach a majority. The Liberals are 18 seats short of the majority.

USDCAD technicals

Technically, the USDCAD price action has been choppy today, fluctuating within a narrow 63-pip range—well below the 115-pip average for the month. Despite brief moves above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages (currently at 1.38603 and 1.38473, respectively), the pair failed to gain upside traction. A modest push to 1.3871—just 11 pips above the 100-hour MA—was quickly rejected during late Asian and early European trading.

On the downside, the 1.3827 level—marked by lows on April 14, 17, and 18—has been tested multiple times amid overnight volatility. Today’s low reached 1.38085, briefly breaching that support, though price has since rebounded slightly. If sellers can push decisively below 1.3827, the next target would be the April low at 1.37787.

With the price now holding below both the 100- and 200-hour MAs and four consecutive days of lower highs, the short-term bias favors continued selling pressure.

Source: ForexLive

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Warren Takunda

Economic

Investec says the rand has recovered as previous severe tensions in the Government of National Unity have subsided, and its forecast points show further gains are possible in the coming weeks, particularly against the Euro and Pound.

"The rand will also remain volatile, highly sensitive to movements in global financial markets and local politics, although the latter is expected to have stabilised to a substantial degree now, with an improved working relationship in the GNU," says Annabel Bishop, an economist at Investec in Johannesburg.

The Rand weakened notably in the first half of April on a combination of global factors (U.S. tariff announcements) and domestic uncertainties relating to the sustainability of the governing coalition following a dispute over tax rises in the budget.

The Democratic Alliance (DA), the second-largest party in the GNU, opposed a VAT hike proposed by the African National Congress (ANC), the biggest party in the coalition.

The DA voted against the budget but also initiated legal action, claiming procedural irregularities.

Facing mounting political pressure and a legal challenge, Finance Minister Godongwana announced on April 24 that the VAT increase would be scrapped, keeping the rate at 15%. This decision was further reinforced by the Western Cape High Court, which suspended the VAT hike pending proper legislative procedures.

"With no VAT increases now, South Africa will see a third revision to the budget, which is expected to see some expenditure cuts, given the difficulty in pushing through higher taxation, with the economy already weak, and a risk of slower growth," says Bishop.

She explains that a revised budget is still awaited, "the two main political parties in the GNU are expected to work closer together."

Additional tailwinds will come from further easing in global tariff tensions now that U.S. President Donald Trump has signalled a softening in stance against China, owing to fears that the U.S. economy is expected to suffer a significant slowdown owing to existing tariffs.

This would help buoy Emerging Market assets such as the Rand.

For the Pound-to-Rand exchange rate, the forecast of 23.62 for mid-year is lower than the 24.84 level seen in spot at the time of writing.

The Euro-to-Rand forecast for mid-year is 19.90, down from 21.12 at the time of writing.

However, the Dollar-to-Rand is seen at 18.60 by mid-year, which is largely in line with current levels in the exchange rate, but represents a 7.0% recovery by the Rand since the April 11 peak of 19.92 in USD/ZAR which represents a joint all-time high.

Source: Poundsterlinglive

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Glendon

Economic

Forex

Key Points:

U.S. trade deficit increases to $162 billion in March.
Impacts on economic policy and market sentiment analyzed.
Potential effects on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and stablecoins.

The U.S. Department of Commerce reported a record $162 billion goods trade deficit for March, surpassing the $145 billion forecast.

The unexpected trade deficit figures could influence financial sentiment, affecting risk appetite across both traditional and cryptocurrency markets.

Record U.S. Trade Deficit: Economic Impact Uncertain

The U.S. Department of Commerce published data indicating a record trade deficit of $162 billion in March, significantly surpassing economists' predictions of $145 billion. Although there have been no direct statements from economic policymakers or influential figures, the figures alone sparked interest in broader economic effects.

Crypto markets have not shown quantifiable allocation changes in response to the deficit, yet previous similar scenarios have led to varying impacts on asset flows and dollar liquidity, potentially impacting Bitcoin and Ethereum. The lack of detailed reactions from major exchanges means the specific influence on crypto pricing remains speculative.

Government officials and key industry individuals have not officially commented on this trade deficit data. Notable crypto community figures have also remained silent as of now, leaving market participants to speculate on long-term implications for digital assets.

Historical Trade Deficits Influence Bitcoin Trends

Did you know? Historical U.S. trade deficits have historically shifted global risk appetite, influencing dollar strength and potentially driving flows into Bitcoin as a hedge against macroeconomic risks.

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently valued at $94,988.31 with a market cap of formatNumber(1886249728051, 2) and a daily trading volume of $28,324,989,024, reflecting a 12.41% shift. It has experienced a 7.04% rise over the past week, according to CoinMarketCap.

Bitcoin(BTC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 12:49 UTC on April 29, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap

Coincu's research suggests that further economic shifts resulting from these deficit figures could lead to heightened regulatory scrutiny and innovation in the cryptocurrency sector. The absence of direct policy responses might create room for speculative financial patterns in the short term.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Adam

Forex

Bullish view

Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-price at 1.1500.

Add a stop-loss at 1.1300.

Timeline: 1-2 days.

Bearish view

Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1300.

Add a stop-loss at 1.1500.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Steady Ahead of US Consumer Confidence Data_1

he EUR/USD exchange rate remained in a tight range on Tuesday as investors waited for important economic data from the United States and Europe. It was trading at 1.1400, down from this month’s high of 1.1575.

Key economic data ahead

The EUR/USD pair will react to several important economic data from Europe and the United States scheduled for Tuesday and later this week.

Eurostat, the main statistical agency for the European Union, will publish the latest consumer and business confidence data. Economists expect these numbers to reveal that the bloc’s consumer confidence fell from minus 14.5 in March to minus 16.7 in April.

Business confidence is also expected to remain under pressure because of Donald Trump’s tariffs that are impacting the bloc. The most notable of these tariffs have been in the automobile sector, which employs millions of people in the region.

The other top European data will come from Spain, where officials will release the latest consumer inflation and GDP data. While these numbers are important their impact on the European Central Bank (ECB) will be limited.

The EUR/USD pair will react to the upcoming US consumer confidence report by the Conference Board. Economists expect the data to show that confidence tumbled from 92.9 in March to 87.9 in April as concerns about tariffs rose.

A big drop in consumer confidence leads to low spending, which, in turn, affects spending. Since consumer spending is a major part of the US economy, weak spending can lead to a recession over time.

The US will release the latest house price index and JOLTs jobs numbers. The other top numbers to watch this week will be the upcoming US nonfarm payrolls (NFP) on Friday, personal consumer expenditure (PCE) data on Wednesday, and GDP on Thursday.

EUR/USD Forex Signal: Steady Ahead of US Consumer Confidence Data_2

EUR/USD technical analysis

The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD exchange rate has held steady in the past few days. It was trading at 1.1400 on Monday, up from the key support at 1.1212, the upper side of the cup and handle pattern.

The pair has moved above the 50-day moving average. It has also formed a bullish flag pattern, which is characterized by a long vertical line and a rectangle formation. Therefore, the pair will likely keep rising as bulls target the year-to-date high of 1.1574.

The alternative scenario is where it does a break-and-retest pattern by moving to 1.1212, and then resuming the uptrend. A break below the support at 1.1212 will invalidate the bullish outlook.