Gold And Silver Technical Analysis: Bullish Setups Strengthen Ahead Of Key Fed Decision

Commodity

Forex

Summary:

Gold (XAU) is trading higher near $4,205 in early Monday trading, as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting.

Gold (XAU) is trading higher near $4,205 in early Monday trading, as markets widely expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its upcoming meeting. This policy shift supports investor interest in the metal, especially in the face of a cooling labour market. The expectations of easier monetary policy continue to provide a bullish backdrop for gold.

Moreover, recent data show that inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target. However, slowing job growth has increased pressure for a rate cut. A 25-basis-point reduction is now largely factored into the price. The lower rates weaken the US dollar and Treasury yields, both of which benefit gold prices. If the Fed confirms this dovish stance on Wednesday, gold may extend its gains toward the $4,380 resistance zone.

On the other hand, central bank demand continues to support gold's long-term bullish trend. The People's Bank of China added to its gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month, lifting total holdings to over 74 million troy ounces. This consistent buying reinforces gold's role as a strategic reserve asset in times of currency uncertainty or geopolitical tension. Sustained demand from global central banks provides a floor for gold prices.

However, improved US consumer sentiment poses a risk to gold in the near term. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment increased to 53.3, beating expectations and signalling some resilience in the US economy. If the dollar strengthens on the back of better economic data, gold could face resistance. A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for foreign buyers, potentially limiting upside momentum in the days ahead.

Gold Technical Analysis

XAUUSD Daily Chart – Bullish Consolidation

The daily chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating within an ascending broadening wedge pattern. It has broken out of the triangle and is now consolidating around the $4,200 area.

A break above $4,260 could trigger a move toward the $4,380 resistance level. Furthermore, a breakout above $4,380 would likely initiate a strong surge in gold prices. The sustained consolidation above the $4,000 region signals strong support in the gold market. This has been followed by the formation of a bullish structure, indicating growing positive momentum.

XAUUSD 4-Hour Chart – Positive Price Development

The 4-hour chart for spot gold shows that the price is consolidating above a rising trendline. Notably, the price has formed a double bottom pattern on this line multiple times. Each time, the price tests the support level, a rebound follows. Therefore, a break above $4,260 would be a bullish signal and could push the price toward the $4,380 level.

Silver Technical Analysis

XAGUSD Daily Chart – Strong Bullish Momentum

The daily chart for spot silver (XAG) shows a strong bullish formation confirmed by a cup-and-handle pattern. The breakout above $54.50 has solidified a bullish structure. A move above $59.33 would likely push prices higher toward the $62 level. Furthermore, the strong upward momentum, supported by the rising 50-day and 200-day SMAs, indicates a firmly bullish trend in the silver market.

XAGUSD 4-Hour Chart – Positive Price Development

The 4-hour chart for spot silver shows that the price has formed a strong bullish pattern. An inverted head-and-shoulders formation is developing above the $45.80 level. A breakout above $54.50 pushed the price to a new record high at $59.33.

Following this high, silver is now consolidating within a wedge pattern, which signals short-term volatility. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 is likely to act as a catalyst for the next major move in the silver market.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis

US Dollar Daily – Negative Momentum

The daily chart for the USD Index shows that it is trading below the 99 level and remains weak below the 200-day SMA. The loss of momentum following the failure to break above 100.50 suggests the index is preparing for another move lower.

A break below the 98 level could trigger a sharp decline toward the 96.50 support area. Furthermore, a drop below 96.50 would likely open the door for a deeper move toward the 90 level. To negate this bearish setup, a decisive break above 100.50 is required.

US Dollar 4-Hour Chart – Double Top Pattern

The 4-hour chart for the US Dollar Index shows that the index is consolidating below the 99 level after forming a double top at the 100.50 level. This pattern suggests further downside in the short term. However, the broader trend remains in a consolidation phase between the 96.50 and 100.50 levels. A breakout from this range will determine the next major move in the US Dollar Index.

Source: FX Empire

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Samantha Luan

Political

Economic

People rest at a shelter amid the clashes between Thailand and Cambodia, in Thailand, July 24, 2025. REUTERS/Pansira Kaewplung/File Photo

Thailand has launched air strikes along its disputed border with Cambodia, the Thai military said on Monday, after both countries accused the other of breaching a ceasefire agreement brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump.

At least one Thai soldier has been killed and four wounded in the fresh clashes that broke out around two areas in the easternmost province of Ubon Ratchathani, Thailand's military said in a statement, after its troops came under Cambodian fire.

"The Thai side has now begun using aircraft to strike military targets in several areas," the statement said.

Cambodia's defence ministry said in a statement that the Thai military had launched dawn attacks on its forces at two locations, following days of provocative actions, and added that Cambodian troops had not retaliated.

The border dispute had erupted into a five-day war in July, before a ceasefire deal brokered by Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim and Trump, who also witnessed the signing of an expanded peace agreement between the two countries in Kuala Lumpur in October.

At least 48 people were killed and an estimated 300,000 temporarily displaced during the July clashes, with the neighbours exchanging rockets and heavy artillery fire.

But following a landmine blast last month that maimed one of its soldiers, Thailand said it was halting the implementation of the ceasefire pact with Cambodia.

In Thailand, more than 385,000 civilians across four border districts are being evacuated, with over 35,000 already housed in temporary shelters, the Thai military said.

Thailand and Cambodia have for more than a century contested sovereignty at undemarcated points along their 817-km (508-mile) land border, first mapped in 1907 by France when it ruled Cambodia as a colony.

Simmering tension has occasionally exploded into skirmishes, such as a weeklong artillery exchange in 2011, despite attempts to peacefully resolve overlapping claims.

Source: Reuters

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Political

Economic

It's shaping up to be a big week for markets, with the US Fed's rate decision front and center. While Nifty futures are flat and regional markets mixed, sentiment for local equities is on a reasonably positive footing after the RBI's rate cut and liquidity boost on Friday. Adding to the optimism is a visiting US delegation, which raises hopes of meaningful progress on the trade deal. It's also a busy stretch for primary markets: ICICI Prudential AMC launches its IPO, looking to raise about $1.2 billion — the fifth billion-dollar-plus listing of the year. And watch InterGlobe Aviation — regulators holding IndiGo's CEO accountable for the flight-cancellation crisis means the stock could stay in the spotlight after last week's 9% slide.

GDP momentum can sustain: Incred

India's latest GDP print evoked a mixed market reaction despite beating all estimates. Incred is firmly in the bull camp. The firm says the pickup in personal consumption through July-September, paired with a buoyant festive season, should help keep the growth engine humming. The RBI's decision Friday to cut its policy rate for the first time in six months — and its signal that more easing is possible — reinforces Incred's view that policy will remain supportive of growth. The rupee's slide to a record low remains a cause of worry, but analysts argue that reasonable price-to-earnings valuations, coupled with the RBI's pro-growth tilt, should offset much of the drag.

Systematix sees opportunity in value retail

Systematix is equally upbeat about another corner of the market: value retail. The segment, it says, is set to stay dominant thanks to the country's large, young consumer base — and that advantage isn't fading anytime soon. Rising disposable incomes and the rapid shift to online shopping are also expanding the market. Trent continues to push hard on expansion, especially through its Zudio format, which analysts say stands out on fashionability. Even so, the stock has had a rough year, sliding 41%.

Cement stocks could come under pressure

The cement story is less cheerful. Demand improved in October-November, and dealers expect the trend to sustain as construction activity gains pace, according to analysts at Antique. But the benefit may be capped: prices were largely flat in November and fresh supply keeps coming. On top of that, fuel prices are inching up with the weakening rupee — a squeeze that could hit margins. Antique remains bullish on UltraTech Cement and JK Cement.

The monumental chaos that slammed InterGlobe Aviation's operations is finally getting priced into the stock. Shares tanked about 9% last week — the most since 2022 — pushing the relative strength index into oversold zone, a trading signal traders keep a close eye on. IndiGo's stock is now the most oversold it has been since January. That said, any rebound will be riddled with risk, given that the government has capped airfares and asked and the company to show cause for the meltdown that nearly brought the aviation sector to its knees.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Gerik

Economic

Deeper Contraction Reflects Economic Headwinds

Japan’s Cabinet Office released revised figures showing a larger-than-anticipated contraction in GDP during the July–September 2025 quarter. The economy shrank by 0.6% on a quarterly basis and 2.3% on an annualized scale down from the earlier reported 0.4% quarterly and 1.8% annualized decline. These adjustments underscore the growing fragility of Japan’s post-pandemic recovery, particularly under the strain of unfavorable global trade dynamics and weakening domestic investment.

The annualized rate indicates how the economy would perform if the quarterly pace continued for a full year, making the figure more comparable to other nations' annual growth metrics.

Exports Decline Under U.S. Tariff Pressure

One of the principal factors behind the economic slump is the continued contraction in exports, which fell by 1.2% from the previous quarter. This decline aligns with the preliminary estimate and is largely attributed to the tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year. Though the U.S. later reduced tariffs on Japanese imports from 25% to 15%, the blow to Japan’s critical auto sector remains substantial.

Japan responded to the trade friction by pledging $550 billion in U.S. investments during the negotiation process, signaling a willingness to prioritize diplomatic and economic stability. Nonetheless, the economic pain from the trade imbalance is real, with Japan’s export-heavy industries taking a clear hit.

Residential Investment Crumbles Amid Regulatory Shifts

Private residential investment was revised to show an 8.2% quarter-on-quarter decline, a slight improvement over the initial 9.4% estimate. Even so, the figure reveals a sharp pullback, driven largely by new building code regulations that disrupted housing starts earlier in the year. The regulatory shock, though structural rather than cyclical, has had a real-time dampening effect on construction and related sectors, compounding broader economic weakness.

Private consumption, which accounts for more than half of Japan’s GDP, rose marginally by 0.2%, suggesting household demand remains stable despite broader economic turbulence. Imports also declined by 0.4%, contributing marginally to net export calculations but indicating weaker domestic demand for foreign goods, often a sign of caution among consumers and businesses.

Macroeconomic Context: A Nation at Crossroads

The downward revision adds pressure on Japan’s leadership, especially as Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi navigates both domestic expectations and international uncertainties. Takaichi, Japan’s first female leader, enjoys high approval ratings partly due to her assertive nationalist rhetoric and economic promises. However, the current data signals that structural reform and trade resilience will be critical if Japan hopes to rebound in the face of weakening global demand and tighter regulatory conditions.

Japan’s steeper-than-expected contraction in Q3 2025 reflects a confluence of external trade pressures and domestic bottlenecks. While private consumption remains resilient, export dependency and regulatory changes in housing continue to weigh down growth. The government's fiscal and diplomatic responses, including massive U.S. investments and possible stimulus measures, will likely determine whether Japan can stabilize its economy heading into 2026.

In the meantime, global investors and policymakers will closely watch the December BoJ and government policy moves, as well as how Prime Minister Takaichi balances populist support with structural economic recovery strategies.

Source: AP

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Justin

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Political

Rescuers free an injured woman found under debris of a building hit by a Russian air strike, amid Russia's attack on Ukraine, in the frontline town Orikhiv in Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine, in this handout picture released Dec. 7 by the press service of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine in Zaporizhzhia. Reuters-Yonhap

Russia unleashed a major missile and drone barrage on Ukraine overnight into Saturday, after U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they'll meet on Saturday for a third day of talks aimed at ending the nearly 4-year-old war.

Following talks that made progress on a security framework for postwar Ukraine, the two sides also offered the sober assessment that any "real progress toward any agreement" ultimately will depend "on Russia's readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace."

The statement from U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner as well as Ukrainian negotiators Rustem Umerov and Andriy Hnatov came after they met for a second day in Florida on Friday. They offered only broad brushstrokes about the progress they say has been made as Trump pushes Kyiv and Moscow to agree to a U.S.-mediated proposal to end the war.

Russia used 653 drones and 51 missiles in the wide-reaching overnight attack on Ukraine, which triggered air raid alerts across the country and came as Ukraine marked Armed Forces Day, the country's air force said Saturday morning.

Ukrainian forces shot down and neutralized 585 drones and 30 missiles, the air force said, adding that 29 locations were struck.

At least eight people were wounded in the attacks, Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs Ihor Klymenko said.

Among these, at least three people were wounded in the Kyiv region, according to local officials. Drone sightings were reported as far west as Ukraine's Lviv region.

Russia carried out a "massive missile-drone attack" on power stations and other energy infrastructure in several Ukrainian regions, Ukraine's national energy operator, Ukrenergo, wrote on Telegram.

Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant temporarily lost all off-site power overnight, the International Atomic Energy Agency said Saturday, citing its Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi.

The plant is in an area that has been under Russian control since early in Moscow's invasion of Ukraine and is not in service, but it needs reliable power to cool its six shut-down reactors and spent fuel, to avoid any catastrophic nuclear incidents.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said that energy facilities were the main targets of the attacks, also noting that a drone strike had "burned down" the train station in the city of Fastiv, located in the Kyiv region.

Russia's Ministry of Defense said its air defenses had shot down 116 Ukrainian drones over Russian territory overnight into Saturday.

Russian Telegram news channel Astra said Ukraine struck Russia's Ryazan Oil Refinery, sharing footage appearing to show a fire breaking out and plumes of smoke rising above the refinery. The Associated Press could not independently verify the video.

The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces later said Ukrainian forces had struck the refinery. Ryazan regional Gov. Pavel Malkov said a residential building had been damaged in a drone attack and that drone debris had fallen on the grounds of an "industrial facility," but did not mention the refinery.

Months of Ukrainian long-range drone strikes on Russian refineries have aimed to deprive Moscow of the oil export revenue it needs to pursue the war. Meanwhile, Kyiv and its western allies say Russia is trying to cripple the Ukrainian power grid and deny civilians access to heat, light and running water for a fourth consecutive winter, in what Ukrainian officials call "weaponizing" the cold.

The latest round of attacks came as U.S. President Donald Trump's advisers and Ukrainian officials said they'll meet for a third day of talks on Saturday, after making progress on finding agreement on a security framework for postwar Ukraine.

Following Friday's talks, the two sides also offered the sober assessment that any "real progress toward any agreement" ultimately will depend "on Russia's readiness to show serious commitment to long-term peace."

Source: Koreatimes

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Winkelmann

Political

Economic

Another 165 pupils and staff are thought to be in captivity [FILE: November 23, 2025]

Authorities in Nigeria said Sunday that they have secured the release of 100 schoolchildren who were kidnapped from a Catholic school last month.

The Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) said 315 pupils and staff were abducted by gunmen on November 21 from St. Mary's co-educational boarding school in the north-central Niger state.

Fifty students were able to escape in the following hours.

The fate of another 165 students and school staff, who are believed to still be in captivity, remains unclear.

Twelve teachers and 303 children were kidnapped from St: Mary's in Papiri, Niger state [FILE: November 23, 2025]Image: Ifeanyi Immanuel Bakwenye/AFP

What do we know about the 100 children who have been released?

The 100 schoolchildren who were released have arrived in the capital Abuja, a UN source told the AFP news agency. They will be handed over to local officials in Niger state on Monday, the source added.

Presidential spokesman Sunday Dare confirmed to AFP that the schoolchildren have been released.

Local media, including broadcaster Channels Television, also reported that 100 children had been released.

It was unclear whether the release was the result of military force or negotiations. It is also not known which group is responsible.

Niger state authorities as well as the CAN have said they have not been formally notified of the children's release. Nigeria's government has also not officially commented.

Spate of kidnappings shine spotlight on insecurity in Nigeria's north

For years, Nigeria has been fighting an Islamist insurgency in the northeast of the country, while gangs of so-called "bandits" carry out abductions and ransack villages in the northwest.

The country is still scarred by the 2014 kidnapping of nearly 300 schoolgirls by Boko Haram militants. Some of the former students, most of whom were between the ages of 16 and 18 at the time, are still missing.

But a recent surge in abductions since last month has again highlighted the West African nation's poor security situation. Last week, Mohammed Badaru Abubakar resigned as defense minister as authorities look to respond.

In November, 25 Muslim schoolgirls were kidnapped in the state of northwestern Kebi, as were 38 Christian worshipers and their pastor in Kogi state, in the North Central region.

In a separate incident in Sokoto state in the northeast, a bride and 10 of her bridesmaids were abducted from a village.

The kidnappings have coincided with US President Donald Trump ramping up the pressure on Nigeria over the alleged mass killings of Christians.

Trump has said a Christian "genocide" is unfolding in Nigeria and has threatened military action unless the government addresses the situation.

Nigeria's government has rejected Trump's claims.

Source: DW

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Samantha Luan

Forex

Economic

Salaries are picking up in the UK after months of near-stagnation, according to a survey that's closely watched by the Bank of England policymakers.

The Recruitment & Employment Confederation and KPMG said starting pay for permanent staff rose at the fastest pace in five months in November, as firms stepped up efforts to attract talent in areas facing skill shortages.

The numbers could fuel worries about sticky price pressures ahead of an interest-rate decision from the BOE later this month.

At the same time, the survey also contained some signs of labor market easing. Hiring continued to fall, albeit at a softer rate, and the number of candidates looking for work surged.

The report echoes the BOE's Decision Maker Panel, painting a picture of stubborn wage inflation despite a rapid deterioration in employment. Policymakers often cite the REC survey as an early warning signal of labor-market pressures before they surface in official data.

A pick-up in pay growth could provide ammunition to the monetary policy committee's most hawkish members — such as Catherine Mann or Megan Greene — who fear that a loosening labor market won't bring down wage pressures, forcing companies to keep raising prices instead.

The BOE's DMP showed companies expect to increase wages by 3.8% over the next year, the highest since April and above the Bank's 3-3.5% comfort levels. Expectations possibly reflect a 4.1% increase in the minimum wage due to take effect in April, a figure that was widely expected before Reeves confirmed it ahead of her Nov. 26 fiscal statement.

While the UK central bank is expected, on balance, to reduce interest rates at its next meeting on Dec. 18, the path forward is even less clear. BOE policymakers are increasingly divided over how to balance weak growth and rising unemployment with the risk that inflation will settle above their 2% target.

The labor market has deteriorated this year as firms cut jobs to cope with Labour's increase in payroll taxes. Speculation of more fiscal pain ahead of Reeves' budget on Nov. 26 added to the hiring slowdown, the REC report showed.

With no new employment taxes unveiled in the fiscal plan, however, conditions may begin to steady.

"Pre-budget nerves knocked temporary recruitment back just a little in November after a growing October, but the overall picture was still relatively benign by comparison to the last year," Neil Carberry, chief executive at REC, said. "We can see signs of the market stabilizing."