Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup

Economic

Summary:

The latest Market Talks covering FX and Fixed Income. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

0701 GMT - Lower-than-expected U.S. CPI data on Wednesday would lead to more yield spread compression between U.S. and German government bonds, say Danske Bank Research's Kristoffer Kjaer Lomholt and Filip Andersson say in a note. The February CPI data is due at 1230 GMT. A Wall Street Journal poll of economists forecasts the headline month-on-month CPI growth at 0.3% from 0.5% previously and they expect the month-on-month core CPI growth to be 0.3% from 0.4% previously. The 10-year U.S. Treasury-German Bund yield spread is 135 basis points, having traded at 221 basis points at the beginning of the year, according to LSEG data.

0700 GMT - South Korea's benchmark Kospi rose 1.5% to close at 2574.82, extending early gains. Steel and chip stocks advanced. Though President Trump's 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports took effect as planned, signs of easing U.S.-Canada trade tensions and a potential cease-fire in Ukraine supported sentiment. Some traders hunted for bargains after recent falls, with foreign and institutional investors being net buyers. Steelmaker Posco Holdings and memory-chip maker SK Hynix both rose 5.9% after two straight sessions of losses. USD/KRW settled 0.5% lower at 1,451.00 in Seoul onshore trading. South Korea's 10-year government bond yield was up 0.6 basis point at 2.766%.

0638 GMT - A rise in German spending will result in higher deficits but it also has the potential to bolster growth in the medium term after years of underinvestment, Nuveen's Laura Cooper says in a note. In the medium-term, a better outlook for Germany will bode well for asset exposure in Europe, the senior macro strategist says. "Importantly, with Germany having greater fiscal capacity to raise its level of debt, the growth impulse more than offsets concerns of fiscal sustainability," she says, Over the medium term, this should contribute to a better structural outlook for Germany, "bolstering the case for European exposures." Germany announced a large-scale long-term spending plan last week.

0635 GMT - The steepening of the German government bond yield curve is likely to extend as the long end bakes in greater issuance, says Nuveen's Laura Cooper in a note. The steepening, where the gap between short- and long-dated bond yields widens, will drive the 10-year Bund yield to 3.1% by year-end, according to Nuveen's forecast. The short end of the German curve remains more vulnerable to the risk of a material escalation on the U.S. tariff front, the senior macro strategist says. This could prompt the European Central Bank to cut interest rates below 2% in this cycle, "keeping the steepener in play," she says. The 10-year Bund yield ended at 2.894 on Tuesday, up 8 basis points, according to Tradeweb.

0628 GMT - China's fiscal plan could offset about 40% increase in U.S. tariffs, ANZ Research senior China strategist Zhaopeng Xing writes in a note. Every 10% U.S. tariff will cost 0.5 percentage points of China GDP over the next four years, the analyst says. The fiscal plan released during the National People's Congress this year was slightly below expectation, he adds. The CNY3.5 trillion actual increment in fiscal deficit is equivalent to about 2.2% of GDP, he says. China's deficit, which is the gap between expenditure and revenue of both general public and government funds budgets, will rise by 2.2 percentage points to 9.9% this year, highest in history, ANZ Research says.

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Beijing has summoned Walmart for reportedly asking Chinese suppliers to swallow the tariff hikes imposed by the Trump administration, marking the latest salvo in the trade spat between the world's two largest economies.

Authorities including China's commerce ministry met with Walmart on Tuesday over what they said was the retail giant's request to get some of its Chinese suppliers to significantly cut prices "in an attempt to shift the burden of U.S. tariffs to Chinese suppliers and consumers," according to a post on Wednesday by a social media account affiliated with China's state broadcaster.

Earlier this month, the White House implemented additional tariffs of 10% on Chinese imports, building on those announced in February. Taken together, the moves raised the average duty rate on Chinese imports to approximately 35% from 14.5%. Beijing retaliated with its own tariffs and slapped trade restrictions on some U.S. companies.

According to the social media account, Walmart reportedly asking Chinese suppliers to lower prices may risk disrupting supply chains and damaging the interests of both American and Chinese companies and consumers. The behavior may also violate commercial contracts and disrupt market order, it added.

"If Walmart insists on doing so, then what awaits Walmart is not just talk," the social media account warned, hinting that the American retail giant might be facing regulatory action.

In a statement Wednesday, the China Chamber Of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, a state-backed industry group, said that it had recently received reports from some members saying that large U.S. retailers had asked them to cut prices, pledging to take action to defend Chinese companies' interests.

"The various problems in international trade at present are caused by the unilateral imposition of tariffs by the U.S. government, and both Chinese and American companies are victims," it said.

Wednesday's announcement comes amid expectations that U.S. companies will get caught in the crossfire as U.S.-China trade tensions escalate. Chinese officials are building a list of U.S. technology companies that can be targeted with antitrust investigations and other tools, as Beijing looks to collect as much ammunition as possible for negotiations with the Trump administration, The Wall Street Journal reported in February.

Beijing has already said that it is investigating Nvidia and Google over alleged antitrust issues. It has also banned imports of Illumina's gene sequencers, prompting the San Diego-based company to reduce its forecast for this year's financial performance and cutting $100 million in spending.

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Owen Li

Economic

Malaysian palm oil futures opened higher on Wednesday, buoyed by stronger Dalian palm olein and crude oil prices though weaker soyoil prices limited the gains.

The benchmark palm oil contract for May delivery on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange gained 9 ringgit, or 0.2%, to 4,497 ringgit ($1,016.04) a metric ton in early trade.

The contract fell 2.96% over the past two sessions.

FUNDAMENTALS

Dalian's most-active soyoil contract (DBYcv1) fell 1.09%, while its palm oil contract gained 0.4%. Soyoil prices on the Chicago Board of Trade were down 0.02%.

Palm oil tracks price movements of rival edible oils, as it competes for a share of the global vegetable oils market.

Oil prices edged up, helped by a weaker dollar, but mounting fears of a U.S. economic slowdown and the impact of tariffs on global economic growth capped gains. O/R

Stronger crude oil futures make palm a more attractive option for biodiesel feedstock.

The ringgit , palm's currency of trade, weakened 0.34% against the dollar, making the commodity cheaper for buyers holding foreign currencies.

India's palm oil imports in February rose 35.7% from January to 373,549 metric tons, the Solvent Extractors' Association of India (SEA) said on Tuesday.

Prices of cooking oil could be buoyed up for years by stagnating production and a biodiesel push in top producer Indonesia that are making traditionally cheap palm oil costlier, eliminating an advantage that also curbed prices of rival oils.

Palm oil still targets 4,360 ringgit per metric ton, as pointed by a rising trendline, Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao said. TECH/C

Palm rises on Dalian palm olein, crude oil prices; weak soyoil limits gains_1

MARKET NEWS

The euro was riding at five-month highs on Wednesday on Ukraine's readiness to accept a month-long ceasefire, while stocks whipsawed on back-and-forth U.S. tariff plans and concern about a U.S. economic slowdown. MKTS/GLOB

DATA/EVENTS

1230 US Core CPI MM, SA, Core CPI YY, NSA Feb

1230 US CPI MM, SA, CPI YY, NSA Feb

1230 US CPI Wage Earner Feb

($1 = 4.4260 ringgit)

Source:Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Alex

Economic

Chicago soybean futures were largely unchanged on Wednesday, holding near last session's one-week low, with abundant South American supplies and uncertainty over the impact of a trade war on U.S. agricultural sales keeping a lid on the market.

Corn was unmoved, while wheat prices edged higher.

"Soybean supplies are pretty comfortable if you look at Brazilian crop which is entering the market," said one trader in Singapore. "But going forward, the market will take direction from U.S. planting."

The most-active soybean contract on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) ! was flat at $10.11-1/4 a bushel, as of 0312 GMT. Wheat ! added 0.6% to $5.60-1/4 a bushel and corn was unchanged at $4.70-1/4 a bushel.

Soybeans are under pressure from hefty South American supplies hitting the global market.

Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 15.45 million metric tons in March, up more than 4% compared with last week's forecast, as the country continues to harvest its massive new crop, according to data from the grain exporters lobby Anec.

Corn prices were weighed down on Tuesday after the U.S. government left domestic corn inventories unchanged in a monthly supply-and-demand report - despite strong export sales and trade tensions with top buyer Mexico.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture pegged 2024-25 U.S. corn stocks at 1.54 billion bushels and exports at 2.45 billion bushels, both unchanged from February. Analysts had expected stocks to decline to 1.516 billion bushels due to robust demand, according to a Reuters poll.

Traders and farmers are keeping a close eye on exports amid U.S. tariff disputes, with major buyers Mexico, Canada and China threatening sales of U.S. agricultural goods.

Commodity funds were net sellers of Chicago Board of Trade corn, soybean, wheat and soymeal futures contracts on Tuesday, and net buyers of soyoil futures, traders said. (COMFUND/CBT)

Source:Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

The risk that the US economy will enter recession this year is rising, according to economists, as Donald Trump’s chaotic approach to tariffs continued to hit markets.

Shares on Wall Street fell sharply on Monday as investors bet the president’s unpredictable tariff trade war and handling of the economy would hit growth, amid a recent plunge in business and consumer confidence.

On another day of selling pressure in global markets, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 1.5%, while the S&P 500 was down 2.4%. Share prices also fell in Europe, as the FTSE 100 tumbled 0.9% in London, Germany’s Dax was down 1.7% and France’s CAC fell 0.9% on Monday.

Economists said the risks of a “Trumpcession” had increased as the president’s brinkmanship and stop-start approach to tariffs rattled global investors, exemplified by last week’s decision to pause US tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico for the second time in as many months.

Trump declined on Sunday to rule out the possibility that the US economy could tumble into recession this year as he warned businesses and households to brace for a “period of transition” and the potential for higher inflation.

Analysts said the president could have used the interview with Fox News as an opportunity to calm jitters in financial markets but that he instead chose to press on with an increasingly chaotic approach to his second term in office.

Kathleen Brooks of the trading platform XTB said Trump was putting his political goals ahead of the strength of the economy and the stock market. “[His] flip-flopping on tariffs, and his old-fashioned views of America first, is weighing on consumption and knocking confidence.”

Wall Street economists have downgraded their growth forecasts for the US, warning that Trump’s trade wars are proving more damaging for the US economy than first anticipated.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs said on Friday that the chances of a US recession had increased from 15% to 20%, as it revised its forecasts to incorporate higher tariffs and inflation, alongside a hit to gross domestic product and employment.

Morgan Stanley cut its 2025 GDP growth forecast from 1.9% to 1.5%. “While we did expect growth-constraining policies (tariffs and immigration controls) to precede growth-supportive initiatives (tax cuts and deregulation), their severity has been greater than we anticipated. This is especially the case with tariffs, which have come in faster and broader than we had pencilled in,” it said.

Many economists still reckon the US will avoid the widely accepted definition of a recession – two consecutive quarters of shrinking output – but warn that the latest figures show the risks are mounting.

Data from the US economy in recent weeks showed an unexpected fall in consumer spending in January, a widening of the US trade deficit to a record $131bn (£101bn) in the same month, as firms rushed to move goods before the introduction of tariffs, and the biggest fall in consumer confidence in four years in February.

The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow model, which predicts growth based on available economic data, suggests the US economy could contract by 2.4% in the first quarter (annualised). The reading can be volatile and is influenced heavily by the ballooning US trade deficit, which is likely to be unwound in future months.

“Markets are now starting to get concerned about the prospects for growth in 2025,” said Paul Donovan, the chief economist at UBS global wealth management. “Trump’s tariff policy has been unpredictable, with a series of retreats so rapid they almost collide with the next tax hike announcement.

“The rather chaotic US tariff policy still allows companies to sell a story to their customers to cover for price increases, and some may also try to raise prices in anticipation of tariffs that actually end up being retreated from.”

Source: Theguardian

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

XRP mirrors the bearishness in the cryptocurrency market on March 11, with its price down approximately 7.50% in the last 24 hours to $2.08. At its intraday low, it was trading for $1.90. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_1

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Key catalysts driving the XRP prices lower today, include:

Heightening US recession fears.

US President Donald Trump’s digital asset stockpile letdown.

A textbook bearish technical setup. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_2

XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

US recession fears hurt XRP price

Escalating concerns over a potential US economic slowdown have dampened investor sentiment across financial markets, hurting XRP and the broader cryptocurrency sector.

Key points:

Crypto and tech stocks saw a large sell-off on March 10 due to rising US recession fears.

JPMorgan raised the US recession risk to 40%, up from 30% at the start of 2025, citing extreme US policies as a key risk.

The Trump administration’s recent imposition of tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China has heightened fears of a global trade war.

President Trump’s acknowledgment of a potential recession during a "period of transition" has further unsettled investors.

Goldman Sachs has also increased its 12-month recession probability to 20%, up from 15%, warning that the forecast could rise if Trump maintains current policies.

The Nasdaq E-Mini Futures has dropped by nearly 6% over the past week, coinciding with a 1.18% plunge in the 10-year Treasury note yields.

Nasdaq Futures, US dollar index, US 10-year Treasury note yield, and TOTAL crypto market cap daily five-day performance. Source: TradingView

The US dollar index dipped 1.88% in the same period, while the combined market cap of cryptocurrencies has fallen by 8.85%.

On the other hand, the Euro and Japanese Yen are rising. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_3

EUR/USD and JPY/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

Together, these performances indicate a growing rush toward what investors consider “safe havens,” especially as the Trump trade war hurts US economic growth prospects.

White House Crypto Summit fails to impress XRP bulls

XRP's price took a sharp hit following the White House’s inaugural Crypto Summit on March 7, as hopes for its inclusion in a US strategic crypto reserve were swiftly dashed.

Key takeaways:

Initial excitement faded after President Donald Trump’s team clarified that Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP were used as illustrative examples, not official selections for the US reserve.

Trump’s crypto strategy favors altcoin reserves but excludes new purchases, limiting XRP’s chances of institutional accumulation.

No evidence exists that the US government holds XRP, further diminishing investor optimism.

Conversely, Bitcoin remains the clear winner, with the US government holding approximately $17.7 billion in BTC, reinforcing its dominance.

The XRP/BTC pair has dropped by 15% in the past two weeks while consolidating within a historical distribution zone. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_4

XRP/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

A break below the 200-2W exponential moving average (200-2W EMA; the blue wave) at around 1,700 satoshis could send XRP/BTC toward the 50-2W EMA (~1,700 satoshis).

XRP risks 45% crash ahead

XRP’s price decline today is furthermore a part of its prevailing head-and-shoulders pattern.

Key points:

An H&S pattern forms when the price forms three consecutive highs, with the middle peak (head) higher than the other two (shoulders).

As a technical rule, the pattern resolves when the price breaks below its common support (neckline) and falls by as much as the pattern’s maximum height. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_5

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

As of March 10, XRP had formed what appears to be the H&S pattern’s right shoulder and was heading toward the neckline support at around $2.

A decisive breakdown below the support level could send the XRP price toward $1.11 by April, down by over 45% from the current prices.

Can XRP resume its bull run?

A rebound from $2 neckline support could delay or invalidate the H&S pattern.

Interestingly, the level aligns with two other support levels: the lower trendline of XRP’s prevailing symmetrical triangle pattern and the 50-3D EMA. Why Is XRP Price Down Today?_6

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

A bounce, followed by a decisive close above the triangle’s upper trendline, could trigger a breakout scenario toward $3.44.

The upside target is measured after adding the triangle’s maximum height to the breakout point (considered to be at the triangle’s apex point at $2.05).

Source: Cointelegraph

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Warren Takunda

Economic

On Monday, the S&P 500's technology sector dropped 4.3%, while Apple and Nvidia both fell about 5%. Tesla tumbled 15%, shedding about $125 billion in value.

Other risk assets were also punished, with bitcoin dropping 5%.

Some defensive areas of the market held up better, with the utilities sector logging a 1% daily gain. Safe-haven U.S. government debt saw more demand, with benchmark 10-year Treasury yields, which move inversely to prices, down to about 4.22%.

INVESTOR UNEASE

The S&P 500 has given up all gains recorded since Trump's November 5 election, and it is down nearly 3% in that time. Hedge funds reduced exposure to stocks on Friday at the largest amount in more than two years, according to a Goldman Sachs note released on Monday.

Investors had expressed optimism that Trump's expected pro-growth agenda including tax cuts and deregulation would benefit stocks, but uncertainty over tariffs and other changes including federal workforce cuts, has dampened sentiment.

"It was the overwhelming consensus that everything was going to be this great environment once President Trump came into office," said Michael O’Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading.

"Every time you have structural change you're going to have uncertainty and you're going to have friction," O'Rourke said. "It's understandable people are starting to be a little concerned and starting to take profits."

Even with the recent selloff, stock market valuations remain significantly above historic averages. The S&P 500 as of Friday was at just above 21 times earnings estimates for the next year, compared to its long-term average forward P/E of 15.8, according to LSEG Datastream.

"Many people have been worried about elevated valuations among U.S. equities for some time and looking for the catalyst for a market correction," said Dan Coatsworth, investment analyst at AJ Bell. "A combination of concerns about a trade war, geopolitical tensions and an uncertain economic outlook could be that catalyst."

US Stock Market Loses $4 Trillion in Value as Trump Plows Ahead on Tariffs_1

Bar chart showing The percentage of total corporate equities and mutual fund shares that are owned by people of different wealth.

Investors' equity positioning has fallen in recent weeks, dipping to slightly underweight for the first time since briefly hitting that level in August, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a note on Friday.

A further retreat to the bottom of the historic range for equities weighting, as seen during Trump's U.S.-China trade war in 2018-2019, could drag the S&P 500 to as low as 5,300, or down another 5.5% from current levels, they added.

In another sign of growing investor unease, the Cboe Volatility index on Monday reached its highest closing level since August.

The administration is "still trying to figure out how to define a win politically, economically, and what is the right timeframe," said Edward Al-Hussainy, senior interest rate and currency analyst at Columbia Threadneedle Investments. "And until they do that, it's going to be like this every week."

Source: Reuters

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

Add to Favorites

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

China Summons Walmart for Talks as Suppliers Complain Over Tariffs

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

Palm rises on Dalian palm olein, crude oil prices; weak soyoil limits gains

FUNDAMENTALS

MARKET NEWS

DATA/EVENTS

Source:Reuters

Soybeans face headwinds from large Brazilian supply, wheat rises

Source:Reuters

Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ Rising, Economists Say, as Global Markets Fall

Source: Theguardian

Why Is XRP Price Down Today?

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

US recession fears hurt XRP price

EUR/USD and JPY/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

White House Crypto Summit fails to impress XRP bulls

XRP/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP risks 45% crash ahead

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Can XRP resume its bull run?

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph

US Stock Market Loses $4 Trillion in Value as Trump Plows Ahead on Tariffs

INVESTOR UNEASE

Bar chart showing The percentage of total corporate equities and mutual fund shares that are owned by people of different wealth.

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

News

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Global Forex and Fixed Income Roundup

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

China Summons Walmart for Talks as Suppliers Complain Over Tariffs

Source：Dow Jones Newswires

Palm rises on Dalian palm olein, crude oil prices; weak soyoil limits gains

FUNDAMENTALS

MARKET NEWS

DATA/EVENTS

Source:Reuters

Soybeans face headwinds from large Brazilian supply, wheat rises

Source:Reuters

Risk of ‘Trumpcession’ Rising, Economists Say, as Global Markets Fall

Source: Theguardian﻿

Why Is XRP Price Down Today?

XRP/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP/USD four-hour price chart. Source: TradingView

US recession fears hurt XRP price

EUR/USD and JPY/USD daily price chart. Source: TradingView

White House Crypto Summit fails to impress XRP bulls

XRP/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView

XRP risks 45% crash ahead

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Can XRP resume its bull run?

XRP/USD three-day price chart. Source: TradingView

Source: Cointelegraph﻿

US Stock Market Loses $4 Trillion in Value as Trump Plows Ahead on Tariffs

INVESTOR UNEASE

Bar chart showing The percentage of total corporate equities and mutual fund shares that are owned by people of different wealth.

Source: Reuters

Risk Disclosure

Source: Theguardian

Source: Cointelegraph