Global Banks Start Targeting a New Breed of Real Estate Risk

European stocks bounced and government bond yields dropped on Monday as investors looked forward to an interest rate cut from the European Central Bank, while U.S. jobs data due this week kept the focus squarely on inflation.

The pan-European STOXX index was up 0.4% and U.S. stock futures , also rose.

In bond markets, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was down 5 basis points to 4.47% and German yields, which touched six-month highs last week, also dropped.

All focus was on the ECB, which is considered almost certain to trim rates by a quarter point to 3.75% on Thursday.

However, a surprisingly high reading for euro zone inflation, out last week, further weakened the case for a rapid round of reductions. Markets now price in fewer than 60 basis points of easing now - meaning two 25-basis point cuts and less than a 50% chance of a third.

"There's a relatively positive risk tone to start the week, which seems like a continuation of the positive momentum seen on Friday, albeit is somewhat surprising given the bumper calendar of event risk coming up," said Michael Brown, strategist at broker Pepperstone in London.

China's factory activity grew at the fastest pace in about two years in May, data showed on Monday. That extended the optimism prevailing in markets following Friday figures showing the U.S. Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation held steady in April.

"The ECB decision is perhaps the most important event to watch, particularly after last week’s inflation data which raises the hawkish risk that there is only one more cut this year after a 25bp reduction on Thursday," Brown said.

Markets also imply around an 80% chance the Bank of Canada will cut rates at its meeting on Wednesday and around 60 basis points of easing this year, though analysts are hopeful the easing will be even deeper.

Investors are a lot less dovish on the Fed, seeing little prospect of a move until September, though the odds of a move then increased after Friday's inflation data. They price in less than a 60% chance of a second cut by December.

The outlook could change this week given data due includes key surveys on manufacturing on Monday, services on Wednesday and the May payrolls report on Friday in which unemployment is seen holding at 3.9% as 190,000 net new jobs are forecast to have been created.

In Europe, focus was also on a downgrade to France's credit rating by Standard & Poor's, but the country's bonds showed little reaction .

Currency markets saw the U.S. dollar start June on a steady footing, last flat against a basket of peers after it posted its first monthly decline of 2024 in May.

The euro was down 0.1% against the dollar at $1.0841.

The yen , this year's worst performing G10 currency hurt by low Bank of Japan interest rates, gained 0.3% against the dollar at 156.83, after hitting a four-week low of 157.715 last week.

Emerging markets were in focus following elections in India and Mexico.

India's rupee strengthened and its stock market rose to a record high, buoyed by expectations of sustained economic growth as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looked set for a third term.

The Mexican peso , however, was down 3% as markets feared Claudia Sheinbaum's landslide victory could bring constitutional change.

Earlier, Asian stocks rose on the back of the strong Chinese data, along with prints from Japan and South Korea.

Gold was up 0.1% at $2,330 an ounce , having now rallied for four months in a row helped in part by buying from central banks and China.

European natural gas prices rose over 8% to their highest this year at over 37 euros/ MWh as an outage in Norway, which overtook Russia in 2022 as Europe's biggest gas supplier, pushed exports sharply lower on Monday.

Oil prices see-sawed after OPEC+ agreed on Sunday to extend most of its oil output cuts into 2025, though some cuts will start to be unwound from October 2024 onwards.

Brent was last up 0.2% at $81.24 a barrel, while U.S. crude was up 0.1% at $77.04 per barrel.

($1 = 157.1900 yen)

Chinese businesses are increasingly favouring investment in countries including Vietnam and Mexico as trade tensions rise between western governments and Beijing.

During the year to March, at least 41 Chinese manufacturing and logistics projects were announced for Mexico, while at least 39 were scheduled for Vietnam, according to the latest data from Financial Times subsidiary FDI Markets.

This represents the highest number of announced projects in either country since FDI Intelligence began tracking foreign investment news and company announcements in 2003, with both Mexico and Vietnam now overtaking the US as the top destinations for Chinese manufacturing and logistics projects. Thailand, Malaysia, Hungary and Egypt also welcomed record levels of Chinese projects in the year to the end of March.

The developments highlight how, as western multinationals and politicians seek to break decades of dependence on factories in China and limit the country’s role in supplying critical products, Chinese manufacturers are building their presence overseas.

Among the big Chinese investments is an up to $2bn Mexican plant announced by the local subsidiary of state-owned Shanghai Automotive Industry Corporation.

With US President Joe Biden last month declaring fresh tariffs on $18bn-worth of Chinese goods, even small Chinese manufacturers are looking to spend their limited funds on overseas expansions.

As the US imports more from countries beyond China, Chinese businesses are also boosting exports to these countries.

The total value of Chinese exports to Mexico and Thailand more than doubled to $158.7bn between 2017 and 2023, according to China’s customs data. China’s overall exports grew just 49 per cent to $3.4tn over the same period.

Chinese exports of computer parts to Vietnam more than tripled to $1.7bn between 2017 and 2023, according to China’s General Administration of Customs.

However, the Eurasia Group consultancy pointed out in April that Vietnam’s trade surplus with the US had increased substantially not only because of an actual shift in production from China, but also because Chinese companies were simply rerouting products through Vietnam.

“Direct importing [from China] may be down. But one only has to look at indirect routes through which the US continues to be plugged into Chinese supply chains,” said Davin Chor, an economics professor at New Hampshire’s Dartmouth College.

Audrey Liang, a sales representative at knife and tool manufacturer Summit Enterprise, said that, having been based in a single factory in Yanjiang, in southern China’s Guangdong province, for 26 years, it is now fitting out a second site in Vietnam. It hopes the Vietnamese site will be operational by the end of next year.

Clients had asked Summit Enterprise to consider a site in Vietnam because of “political reasons” and the lower tariffs on Vietnamese goods, despite higher production costs and the lower skill levels of domestic workers, she said. “If the customers didn’t have this requirement, we wouldn’t go to Vietnam,” she added.

There are still many advantages to operating in China, said Jack Ye, a sales representative at Chinese backpack-maker Xiamen Obaili Manufacturing, noting that Chinese production had the advantage of better delivery times, costs and quality. But the company would consider overseas sites if Donald Trump, who has threatened even greater crackdowns on Chinese trade, was re-elected as US president, he said.

Bitcoin heads into June in fighting form as an early push puts key resistance back in play.

BTC price momentum is targeting $69,000 as TradFi markets return to the scene — will this week finally see a breakout?

This is the main question for Bitcoin market participants, and one which has fielded a variety of opinions in recent weeks.

Rangebound for nearly three months, BTC/USD, they argue, is long overdue upside continuation — but hodlers may need to wait longer still.

The coming few days could provide the fuel that bulls need to do the job: United States unemployment figures, recently a catalyst for risk-asset volatility, are due at the end of the week.

Meanwhile, on-chain indicators are lining up to call for a bullish comeback on Bitcoin, while behind the scenes, network fundamentals are inching back toward all-time highs of their own.

As price and sentiment slowly recoups lost ground, Cointelegraph takes a look at the major issues facing Bitcoin traders as June gets underway.

After some spates of volatility over the weekend, BTC/USD had ultimately come full circle by the weekly close, data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows.

No sooner had the June 3 candle begun, however, did Bitcoin bulls set the tone for the Asia trading session — higher.

Now back above $69,000 at the time of writing, BTC price action continues to pick battles around that area, with traders seeing a clear need to flip it to solid support.

“TLDR; Market needs to accept & sustain above $69K for continuation higher (new ATHs) so for now we see how things develop into monday,” popular trader Skew wrote in his latest analysis on X (formerly Twitter).

“Early week dips would be my focus for opportunities if given later (following the criteria of risk on or risk off factors).”

Describing $69,000 as “likely an important price this week,” Skew noted increasing ask liquidity above $70,000, with the majority of bids still lower down at around $66,000.

“Current Spot Demand is still around $66K - $65K, with current market bid would like to see some spot bids get moved higher towards $67K,” he summarized.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed ongoing attempts to keep price contained in its current range.

Over the weekend, Cointelegraph reported on on-chain metrics repeating key breakout patterns from earlier this year.

Popular trader and commentator TechDev added to the mood with a chart showing five-day compression at its highest levels in eight years. Prior to that, he had revealed a Bollinger Band breakout against U.S. M1 money supply, which had also been absent since 2017.

A relatively quiet start to the week in terms of macroeconomic data does not mean a complete absence of potential volatility for risk assets.

U.S. initial jobless claims come on June 6, while the day after will see further unemployment numbers.

As Cointelegraph continues to report, Bitcoin and crypto markets have been particularly sensitive to employment data, which misses expectations this year.

The implication from surprisingly high unemployment is that tight financial conditions put in place by the Federal Reserve are making themselves felt within the economy. As such, the chances of these being unwound sooner rather than later could increase.

Clarity should come later this month when the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, meets to discuss interest rate changes.

“This is the last week of employment data before the June Fed meeting kicks off,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in part of X commentary on the topic.

The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool nonetheless preserves the status quo among markets — no significant chance of a rate cut until September or later.

“Even if the Fed does manage to squeeze in one rate cut this year, the central bank looks forced into holding rates higher for longer,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, “The Market Mosaic,” on June 2.

It added that declining chances of a cut were nonetheless “not necessarily a bad thing for the stock market.”

Bitcoin and global liquidity are a match which for bulls was made in heaven — and the latest chart data says it all.

Currently circulating on social media is an “extremely bullish” comparison between BTC/USD and the U.S. M1 money supply.

M1 supply refers to the sum of cash, demand deposits and checks in the U.S. economy. Over the years, Bitcoin has exhibited a key dynamic against M1, and as of June 2024 looks to be repeating its biggest-ever breakout against it.

“Significant,” popular trader and analyst TechDev wrote in commentary while uploading the comparison to X on June 1.

“Bitcoin has only seen blow-off tops after breakouts against M1 money supply. And the longer it's consolidated, the longer it's run. This breakout follows the longest consolidation yet.”

The chart shows that the breakout phase in fact began last year, but by historical standards, it is yet to make its presence felt.

The status quo has in fact stayed in place for a record seven years — with the implication that the fledgling breakout should be uniquely volatile to match.

“In fact, it represents a textbook breakout of a 5 year broadening wedge,” TechDev continued.

“The last 5 years have been corrective against M1. $BTC is once again impulsive against it for the first time since 2017. We've never seen a Bitcoin breakout like this one.”

The phenomenon was not lost on the trading community, being noticed by figures including veteran trader Peter Brandt.

“We never had the blowoff top in 2021 and it just all has been consolidation against M1 money supply so we're in for mega moon,” popular commentator WhalePanda continued in part of his own response.

During the 2017 breakout, BTC/USD enjoyed parabolic upside for the following nine months.

Bitcoin network fundamentals are slowly bouncing back after a rapid cooling during early May’s downward price action.

The latest data from monitoring resource BTC.com predicts a roughly 1.7% difficulty increase on June 6.

This will build on a 1.5% jump from two weeks ago, helping mitigate the 5.6% drop, which came before that which cost difficulty its all-time high position.

Hash rate, the aggregate processing power dedicated to the network by miners, continues to consolidate after hitting record highs in April, per raw data from MiningPoolStats.

According to on-chain analytics firm Glassnode, however, miners themselves face challenging conditions.

More than one month after April’s block subsidy halving, miners’ net BTC holdings are declining on a rolling 30-day basis — a trend which is accelerating.

As on June 2, the latest date for which data is available, miner balances were 2,500 BTC lower than they were 30 days prior.

Compared to the run-up to the halving, the balance reduction is not as steep. Beginning in November 2023, miners began selling BTC in moves which became the norm throughout Q1, Glassnode shows.

Amid a general trend of declining BTC balances across crypto exchanges, one in particular stood out this weekend.

Glassnode confirms that on May 30 and May 31, withdrawals at the popular trading platform totaled nearly 50,000 BTC ($3.44 billion).

The May 30 figure alone marks the second-largest daily withdrawal from any exchange in BTC terms since the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. For Kraken, it was one of the largest on record.

The moves were not lost on market observers, with Vivek Vivek Sen, founder of Bitcoin public relations firm Bitgrow Lab, describing them as “wild.”

“Supply shock incoming, ATH is imminent,” he wrote in part of a further X post after the second day’s outflows hit.

Kashif Raza, founder of Bitcoin education platform Bitinning, noted coins leaving Kraken to external wallets in several transactions.

As Cointelegraph reported, exchanges have been seeing solid demand for BTC for years, with aggregate balances now at levels not seen since 2017.

As China's leadership prepares for the long-awaited Third Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee, announced on April 30 to be held in July, a consultative meeting on May 23 with private entrepreneurs and economists, chaired by General Secretary Xi Jinping, has stirred speculation that the top leadership might be preparing the country for a shift towards more pro-market reforms.

In recent years, communications from the Chinese leadership have predominantly emphasized the state sector and industrial policies. These industrial policies are state actions meant to allocate resources in support of selected industries to achieve goals determined by political processes with significant political stakes. While the focus on industrial policies will continue to be the core pillar of China's development strategies, the inclusion of economics professor Zhou Qiren as one of the nine selected speakers at the consultative meeting suggests that the top leadership might make use of his market-oriented views and the symbol he carries to send a signal.

Zhou contends that the drastic fall in transaction costs, organization costs, and most importantly system costs was the primary driver of China's astonishing growth rate in the three decades since its reform and opening started in 1978. He claims that system-wide institutional reforms are crucial for the Chinese economy to regain cost advantages and achieve breakthroughs, rather than relying on aggregate demand stimulus and industrial policies.

While we caution against putting too much weight on Zhou himself or academia in general regarding the Chinese leadership's deliberation on economic development models, the signalling implication is hard to ignore. Zhou has been absent from the spotlight for quite some time and is well known for his alternative views on the driving forces of the Chinese economy.

His new institutional economics roots, which were first popularized by Ronald Coase, emphasize the central roles of institutional arrangements in the economy, property rights, transaction costs, and political economy in economic development. This approach is markedly different from the New Keynesian approach that dominates the mainstream economic profession or the Marxist political economy that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) maintains as the overarching guiding principle in economic thought.

Furthermore, Xi rarely chairs consultative sessions with private entrepreneurs himself. Over the past decade, besides this recent one, the previous consultative session with the private sector chaired by Xi was in July 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the one before that was in November 2018 when China and the US were embroiled in a trade war. This time, Xi held the meeting right before the Third Plenary Session, which will formulate the long-term strategic direction and development model of China. The selection of Zhou as a speaker at this meeting carries significant symbolism and could serve to send out signals. What Zhou said at the meeting is not as important as what Zhou is perceived to represent.

According to Zhou, China's economic miracle is not a result of low-cost labour but a consequence of system-wide institutional reform and the opening up of the economy that lowered the ‘system costs' of China's economy. Zhou (2017) defines ‘system costs' as the costs incurred in the operation of the institutional framework of enforcing property rights and contracts. The essence of China's reform is to “redefine property rights by decentralizing the power of the super state-firm” (Zhou, 2010). The narrative that China's economic success is solely due to cheap labour is overly simplistic.

Before the economic reforms, China's labour was even cheaper, but the country did not experience the same economic boom. Today, many countries around the world also offer cheaper labour, yet they do not replicate China's success. This discrepancy underscores that low labour costs alone are insufficient for economic transformation.

As Zhou(2023) points out, the critical factor is the transformation of these inputs into more products that are competitive. This requires effective organization and functioning within a supportive institutional framework to lower transaction costs, organization costs, and most importantly system costs. Before reforms, China's highly centralized economic system, akin to a "super state-firm," was plagued by inefficiencies and high organizational costs. By decentralizing economic control and redefining property rights, China significantly lowered these costs, thereby enhancing its competitiveness.

China's initial reforms, such as the shift from collective farming to a household farm production contractual responsibility system, followed by allowing the establishment of private enterprises to absorb the labour freed from farm activities, exemplify the impact of institutional change. These reforms not only increased agricultural productivity but also released labour for the growing industrial sector, creating a foundation for China's manufacturing boom. Moreover, China's opening to and engagement with global markets, highlighted by its economic and regulatory reforms which earned its accession to the WTO, illustrate the importance of institutional support in leveraging low-cost labour.

The problem China is now facing, according to Zhou (2023), is that system costs in China have been rising fast due to dramatic increases in costs incurred by higher taxes and charges, local governments pushing up land prices, and more regulations, as well as inconsistencies in dealing with new technologies in the private sector and the inefficiency of state-driven urbanization. These changes have stifled economic progress. His prescription for the Chinese economy is to lower system costs through reform and opening the economy and to innovate. Reducing system costs through streamlined regulations, greater transparency, and better definition and enforcement of property rights is essential for fostering growth and innovation.

In our article published in October 2023, we asked if the upcoming Third Plenary Session could mark a pivotal moment for China's economic strategy, potentially embracing pro-market reforms and emphasizing the market's "decisive role" in allocating resources, as outlined in a blueprint unveiled by the Chinese leadership 10 years ago. The “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform,” adopted at the Third Plenary Session of the 18th Central Committee held in November 2013, pledged to deepen marketization and privatization.

However, these initiatives have petered out over the years. The May 23 meeting, as discussed above, gives a glimmer of anticipation that the upcoming Third Plenary Session this July might echo the 2013 Decision, contrary to the downbeat expectations of investors regarding its outcome.

Once again, we want to emphasize that the Chinese top leaders' adherence to focusing on fostering new productive forces, a concept rooted in the Marxist political economy, and their commitment to state-driven industrial policies to boost self-reliance and comprehensive national security, along with their strategic initiatives in deleveraging the economy and containing the monopoly power of large private enterprises, will remain.

What we are exploring is the plausibility that the top leadership is sending signals that they are preparing to fine-tune their strategic development model, at least tactically, to foster the market and the private sector. It is important to remember that the Chinese leadership has demonstrated remarkable pragmatism over the past few decades in steering the gigantic Chinese economy. A tactical change to green in the “traffic light” that regulates the reform of the institutional frameworks in which the economy functions is plausible.

We are not predicting what will happen at the Third Plenary Session in July because Zhou spoke at Xi's consultative meeting on May 23. We are simply exploring what might have happened that made Zhou's high-profile appearance at the meeting possible. We hope that thinking through this non-consensus observation as one of the possibilities of what has been going on will better prepare investors to interpret the outcome of the Third Plenary Session when it arrives in July.

After three years of extreme volatility, many experts predicted that commodities prices would broadly stabilize in 2024. However, adverse weather conditions, escalating geopolitical tensions and soaring shipping costs are turning those predictions on their heads. According to data gathered by the the United States’ National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA), the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS), the United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO), last year not only broke 2016’s heat record but shattered it by a wide margin. 2023 was 1.48°C warmer than the pre-industrial period, with global average temperatures at least 1°C warmer than pre-industrial averages on every single day. Well, 2024 could be even hotter, with the National Centres for Environment Information (NCEI) predicting a 22 percent chance that the current year will be the warmest year on record and a 99 percent probability that it will rank in the top five warmest years. NCEI data reveals that the first four months of the current year were the warmest in 175 years.

Wild weather driven by climate change is elevating the cost of energy, food and fuel; increasing the frequency of natural disasters and raising insurance costs. According to Munich Re, last year, extreme weather and earthquakes inflicted global losses of $250 billion, a new norm for insurers. These wild weather patterns--coupled with geopolitical tensions--have changed the outlook for certain commodities. Gary Cunningham, director of market research at Tradition Energy, has predicted that U.S. natural gas futures could soar to $4 per million British thermal units later this year if the ongoing hot weather persists and increases cooling demand. That would mark a large 60% jump from the current Henry Hub price of $2.50/MMbtu. The same case applies to Europe. European natural gas prices held around €35 per megawatt-hour in the last week of May, close to a 5-month high amid expectations of lower supply and robust cooling demand. New weather forecasts anticipate hotter temperatures in Northern Europe at the beginning of June; aggressive heat waves in Europe later in the summer and excessive heat in France and Spain.

“This summer will almost certainly bring a rash of debilitating heat waves, particularly in the US midsection and Europe,” said Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, has predicted.

Meanwhile, soaring temperatures in Asia have intensified bidding competition for LNG in major hubs, underscored by the 16.7% annual increase in imports from Japan in April. Europe now competes with Asia for LNG cargoes from exporters like the US, Qatar and Nigeria.

However, ample reserves in European storages and added capacity in Norwegian gas fields are helping temper shortage risks.

Hot weather and dry conditions have triggered shortages of several agricultural commodities resulting in price spikes. Wheat futures have hit the highest since July, reversing bearish bets by hedge funds they held for almost two years. In North America, much of Kansas is still suffering from extreme drought, though harvests are expected to improve from last year when drought was so bad many fields didn’t make it to harvest. Still, with hot conditions prevailing more than a month before the harvest season kicks in, experts are warning that those rosier forecasts might not be realized.

“It better start raining pretty quick to get these numbers,” said Dave Green, executive vice president of the Wheat Quality Council and leader of the crop tour.

Meanwhile, Citigroup analysts have predicted that extreme weather could see prices of Arabica coffee jump about 30% to hit $2.60 a pound over the next few months if adverse weather and production issues prevail in Brazil and Vietnam.

Shipping stocks have so far been the biggest winners in the energy sector. From tankers to dry bulk to containers to LPG, shipping equities are constantly taking out fresh highs. Indeed, with the exception of the pandemic, 2024 is on track to be the best year for shipping equities since the shipping supercycle in 2004-2008.

With shipping rates soaring, leading commodity shipping stocks are firmly in the green this year, and show no signs of slowing down.

GBP/NZD dropped 2.25% in April, the biggest monthly drop since September 2023. This is a signal that the tide has turned in favour of the Kiwi recently.

The New Zealand Dollar has been buoyed by expectations that the antipodean central banks will be amongst the last of the major central banks to cut interest rates, bestowing a degree of support via the interest rate channel.

A broader recovery by the Pound following April's above-consensus inflation print and the calling of a general election stabilised GBP/NZD. However, it's important to note the potential risks of further downside in the near term, urging our audience to exercise caution.

At the time of writing on Monday, we're back below the 200-day moving average, and we will be watching to see whether the exchange rate closes below here today and in the coming days. The RSI is at 39 and pointed lower, confirming the downside is favoured in the next few days.

If the pair registers a string of closes below the 200 DMA, we will take that as confirmation of a decisive flip in fortunes from the upside to the downside of GBP/NZD. A break below horizontal support at 2.0677 is being threatened as part of this mix; moves below here would take the market back to the February lows at 2.04 in the next two to four weeks.

A breakdown of this support then opens the door to the late-2023 lows at 2.01.

There are no significant calendar events due from New Zealand or the UK this week, leaving the focus squarely on the global setup.

We will be watching Thursday's European Central Bank (ECB) policy decision where interest rates are to be cut by 25 basis points. But, we see risks of policymakers warning it is too soon to speculate about further rate cuts owing to recent signs Eurozone inflation is proving resilient.

This would add to the sense that global interest rates won't be falling quickly, which will act as a headwind to stock markets and risk-sensitive currencies like the NZD.

In the same vein, Friday's U.S. labour report will be instrumental in determining when the U.S. Federal Reserve cuts interest rates.

The market is looking for a headline non-farm payroll reading of 180K and an unemployment rate of 3.9%. Average hourly earnings are expected to have risen 3.9% year-on-year.

If the data comes in at softer-than-expected levels, the New Zealand Dollar would potentially be a leading beneficiary.

This is because a soft print would suggest to the market that U.S. interest rates will be cut sooner than previously expected, which can boost global investor sentiment and stock markets.

NZD is a 'high beta' currency, meaning it tends to benefit when stock markets are rising and investors are confident. Under such a scenario, a breakdown in GBP/NZD and a resumption of the April selloff might ensue.

"If U.S. labour market data are on the soft side, markets may upgrade the likelihood of a first rate cut in July, which would weaken the USD even more," says Dominic Schnider, a strategist with UBS' Chief Investment Office.

An above-consensus job report would have the opposite effect, as markets would be resigned to a belief the Fed will struggle to get away with a rate cut before year-end.

Indeed, the risks would grow that the Fed will not cut rates until 2025, potentially meaning the Fed cuts after the RBNZ and diminishes any yield advantage the Kiwi Dollar has recently garnered.

Falling stocks and souring investor sentiment can lead to notable NZD underperformance and a potential break by GBP/NZD back towards 2.09 and into a more constructive technical setup.