Fossil Fuel Demand Probably Peaked in Developed Economies Last Year

Energy

Summary:

Methane emissions from fossil fuels, as well as from industrial activities, increased in almost all regions except the Middle East…

Global energy demand grew by 2 per cent last year, marked by a record expansion in renewable energy and a probable peak in fossil fuel consumption in advanced economies, an industry report said.

Fossil fuel consumption increased by 1.5 per cent, with China and India driving most of the growth, and emissions related to energy exceeded 40 gigatonnes for the first time, the Statistical Review of World Energy report said on Thursday.

The report comes after the world experienced its hottest May on record, with the US, Europe, and swathes of Asia facing imminent or continuing heatwaves.

"With global temperature increases averaging close to 1.5°C, 2023 was the warmest year since records began, and the increasingly severe impacts of climate change were felt across all continents," said Juliet Davenport, president of the UK-based global industry body Energy Institute.

"2023 saw record consumption of fossil fuels and record emissions from energy, but also record generation of renewables, driven by increasingly competitive wind and solar energy."

Fossil Fuel Demand Probably Peaked in Developed Economies Last Year_1

Renewable generation, excluding hydroelectric power, grew 12 per cent to an all-time high of 4,748 terawatt-hours, with wind and solar accounting for three-fourths of the additions, the report said.

China, the world's second-largest economy, accounted for 55 per cent of all new renewable energy generation last year, surpassing the rest of the world combined.

This occurred even as the country's fossil fuel use rose by 6 per cent, driven by a post-pandemic economic surge.

Meanwhile, India's fossil fuel consumption was up 8 per cent, with the South Asian country using more coal than Europe and North America combined, the report said.

"The progress of the transition is slow, but the big picture masks diverse energy stories playing out across different geographies," said Nick Wayth, chief executive of Energy Institute.

In advanced economies, fossil fuel demand seems to be peaking, while in the Global South, economic development, and improvements in quality of life are continuing to drive fossil fuel growth, he added.

Fossil Fuel Demand Probably Peaked in Developed Economies Last Year_2

In Europe, demand for fossil fuels dropped below 70 per cent of primary energy for the first time since the Industrial Revolution, due to reduced demand and increased renewable energy use, the report said.

In the US, the world's biggest oil and gas-producing country, consumption of fossil fuels fell to 80 per cent of total primary energy consumed.

Methane emissions

Methane emissions from the production, transportation and distribution of fossil fuels, as well as from industrial activities, increased in almost all regions except the Middle East.

The region's methane emissions dropped by 7.9 per cent last year, compared with a 5.5 per cent increase in global emissions of the greenhouse gas.

Within the region, Iraq saw a 40 per cent reduction in emissions, while Saudi Arabia and the UAE also experienced decreases.

After carbon dioxide emissions, methane is the second-largest contributor to climate change caused by humans. It is a greenhouse gas that warms up quickly, more than 80 times faster than carbon dioxide.

At the Cop28 climate conference in the UAE last year, 50 oil and gas companies, representing more than 40 per cent of global oil production, signed the Oil and Gas Decarbonisation Charter, which calls for net zero emissions by 2050, or earlier.

The producers are also aiming for "near-zero" upstream methane emissions and zero routine flaring by 2030.

The Cop28 deal was formally referred to as the Global Stocktake, under which countries were urged to "transition away" from fossil fuels in what was arguably the most significant step forward for global climate action since the 2015 Paris Agreement.

It seeks to keep the global temperature limit of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, which was agreed on in Paris, within reach and avoid the worst effects of climate change.

If global temperatures rise by more than that, the lives and health of billions of people could be endangered, scientists believe.

Source: The National News

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Justin

Economic

Over the past few years, the climate policy paradigm has moved from a view where the economy must be constrained to mitigate climate change to one where growth and a sustainable environment can coexist. This change in perspective is adding momentum to the energy transition. But ramping up investments quickly to limit the impact of climate change and drive growth is challenging in a more fragmented world.

New theories have broadened our understanding of the green transition

Green growth theories recognise that technology is not static and is key to achieving simultaneous economic and environmental efficiency. Improvements in energy efficiency are one example where mitigating climate change enhances growth. Another is radical innovation, such as renewable electricity generation, which is now cheaper than fossil fuels.

However, green technologies are costly and not competitive at first, mainly because of nascent research and development and a lack of scale. Technological change is driven by past investments and existing capital. Consequently, the market tends to cling onto existing technologies.

Policy can help accelerate the transition. There are two market failures to address: the negative externality of carbon emissions and underinvestment in green technology. Carbon pricing can correct the first of these, but it cannot address the legacy innovation bias towards fossil fuel investments. Subsidies are needed to redirect resources towards emerging green technologies and crowd in private investment in a greener economy. The fiscal multiplier for renewable investments is estimated to be double that of fossil fuel investments.

Green growth policies have already had success

Decoupling economic growth from emissions has already happened in developed economies (Figure 1). With evidence that climate mitigation can be associated with growth, the policy focus has moved from a purely costs-based view of transition to include opportunities for innovation and growth.

Public spending on ‘greening’ infrastructure and technology has surged (Figure 2). In Europe, one-third of the Next Generation EU Fund has been allocated to green spending, and the Inflation Reduction Act in the US has $369bn of subsidies earmarked for climate mitigation and adaptation. Following energy market disruptions after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and a renewed focus on energy security, large energy importers like the European Union and China have also accelerated their transitions. Global renewable capacity additions in 2023 have once again led the International Energy Agency to revise its renewable energy growth forecast upward by 33%.

Figure 1. US carbon dioxide emissions per capita decoupled from GDP 20 years ago

Climate Mitigation Doesn’t Have to Come at the Expense of Growth_1

Source: BP, World Bank, Global Carbon Budget, S&P Global Ratings

Figure 2. Public climate financing is attracting private investors

Climate Mitigation Doesn’t Have to Come at the Expense of Growth_2

Source: Climate Policy Initiative, S&P Global Ratings

Building competitiveness in green product markets is also emerging as a way to grow international market shares. China has spent more on climate change mitigation than other countries, and Chinese firms are dominating solar panel manufacturing. China is now also disrupting more traditional markets, like auto manufacturing, overtaking Germany as the world’s second largest car exporter thanks to significant progress in producing electric vehicles. Although enacted only in 2022, the IRA could help American companies catch up quickly in green technologies.

The relative attractiveness of carbon taxes is moderating as green growth models emphasise the ‘carrot’ rather than the ‘stick’. In almost every economy, carbon taxes are less popular than subsidies. Countries with a focus on carbon taxing but fewer green subsidies (such as the EU), are adjusting policies to prevent capital flight, with companies taking advantage of green subsidies elsewhere.

Time and money are not the only impediments

Expanding the renewables sector is a challenge and will take time. There’s no doubt that more investments are needed to green the economy. Carbon dioxide emissions per unit of output have plateaued since 2010, but have not yet declined.

Financing sufficient green subsidies to speed up the transition may not be feasible for governments faced with higher interest rates, high debt and lower growth. Government budget constraints – and a lack of foreign (official) financing – are already hampering the green investment in developing countries, which seek a ‘just transition’. So far, the majority of investments in clean technologies have come from the EU, the US and China.

Trade frictions and geopolitical concerns are also affecting the energy transition, potentially making it more costly and slower at a time when scaling up green technologies is key to preserving the environment. For example, the EU has announced an anti-subsidy investigation into electric vehicles coming from China. China has raised questions over the compliance of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism with the World Trade Organization’s rules. And the US has issued local content guidelines for companies to benefit from IRA subsidies. Meanwhile, critical minerals are becoming a strategic asset.

Distribution issues associated with the green transition matter too, and not just the size of the economic pie. Globalisation failed partly due to these concerns. If safeguarding the planet is not seen as making life better for all, political support for the green growth paradigm could be at risk.

Source:Marion Amiot

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Owen Li

Energy

Natural gas-fired power generation in the United States has climbed nearly 6% through June 17 from the same period a year ago, as above-normal temperatures lifted use of power-hungry air conditioners.

U.S. power generation from natural gas from Jan. 1 through June 17 was just over 30 million megawatt hours (MWh), according to data compiled by LSEG.

That total compares to 28.4 million MWh during the same period in 2023, and is the highest gas output reading since at least 2021, LSEG data shows.

Power generation from clean sources including nuclear plants, hydro dams, solar parks and wind farms climbed 7.6% from 2023 to a record 33.5 million MWh, and clean output is set to rise further during peak solar production periods. US Power System Cranks Up Gas Output as Cooling Season Kicks Off_1

US Power System Cranks Up Gas Output as Cooling Season Kicks Off_1

But natural gas looks set to remain the largest single fuel source in the U.S. power system, and will likely be deployed in even greater quantities over the coming months as demand for cooling systems rises during the hottest time of year.

In turn, U.S. power sector emissions from gas use will likely also climb to new highs in 2024, potentially accelerating the climate warming trends that are fuelling increased higher gas demand in the first place.

Gas Up, Coal Down

Natural gas accounted for a 39.7% share of total U.S. power generation from Jan. 1 through June 17, LSEG data shows.

That share is up from 39% during the same period last year, and marks gas' highest power share since at least 2021 for that period.

Reduced use of coal in the U.S. power system accounts for some of the higher gas use. Coal's share of this year's power mix was 15.4% through June 17, down from 16% a year ago and a 23% share during the same period in 2021.

Power firms are expected to make further cuts to coal use in generation going forward as part of ongoing emissions reduction efforts and a longer-term target to decarbonize the U.S. power system.

However, higher overall power demand means that suppliers have been forced to keep increasing the overall volume of fossil fuels used in generation, even as supplies from clean power sources continue to climb.

Total power generation this year is up 3.8% from the same period a year ago, as higher power use by air conditioners, data centers, vehicle chargers and businesses push up overall demand.

To meet the higher load requirement, power firms have lifted the combined volume of power generated by natural gas and coal by the same degree, to 41.7 million MWh.

Clean Records

While natural gas remains the primary U.S. power fuel, output of several clean energy sources has hit records so far this year.

From Jan. 1 through June 17, wind power generation was an all-time high 9.6 million MWh, up 9% from the same period in 2023, while solar generation was up 38% to a record 3.607 million MWh.

Output from nuclear reactors was up 3.4% to 14.98 million MWh - the highest in more than three years - while hydro generation climbed 1.4% to the highest since 2022.

The overall share of clean power in the U.S. generation mix also climbed to a new record this year of 44.3% through June 17, compared to 42.7% a year ago.

Even so, output from fossil fuels - which includes a diminishing volume of crude oil-fired generation as well as natural gas and coal - remains the backbone of the U.S. grid system.

Key Systems

While gas-fired output has climbed by nearly 6% nationally, there are several key U.S. power systems where gas-fired output has jumped by larger margins. US Power System Cranks Up Gas Output as Cooling Season Kicks Off_2

US Power System Cranks Up Gas Output as Cooling Season Kicks Off_2

The Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system has boosted gas output by 10% from the Jan. 1 to June 17 period of 2023, LSEG data shows.

Gas generation in the Southwest Power Pool (SPP), which produces power for all or parts of 14 states across the Midwest and West, has climbed by nearly 14%.

Power producers in Florida have lifted gas generation by 10% through June 17, but are likely to increase gas-fired output higher still during July and August, which are the hottest months of the year in the state.

The PJM Interconnection system, which provides power for consumers across Pennsylvania, New Jersey and Maryland, has upped natural gas output by 6% and coal-fired output by 5% so far this year.

In power systems throughout the U.S. - including California which has the highest proportion of clean power among major states - gas-fired output is likely to climb over the coming months as temperatures peak and boost air conditioner use.

US Power System Cranks Up Gas Output as Cooling Season Kicks Off_3

Higher gas use in generation will in turn yield higher power sector emissions, which in peaked last summer peaked at around 98 million metric tons of carbon dioxide in July and August, according to energy think tank Ember.

In 2024, gas emissions are already tracking ahead of last year's record pace, and loads could top 100 million tons a month for the first time if gas use continues to climb.

Source: Reuters

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Justin

Economic

In January, five new members joined the Brics bloc: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt, Iran and Ethiopia. This means that five new currencies are in the pot for payments and mutual holdings, joining those of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.

The Brics mechanism is lacking a vehicle currency like the one provided by the European Payments Union in 1950, where several currencies – weak ones as well as strong ones – were cleared. In the end the D-Mark emerged as the main vehicle currency after the dollar served in the interim.

While the renminbi will be the main currency for trade, payments and settlements within Brics, the role of a new prime holding currency offers fresh possibilities. Regarding trade, Saudi Arabia and the UAE will most likely trade with China in renminbi, independent of the denominator currency. This will significantly affect the global supply of renminbi and further internationalise the currency.

The transactions will be recorded by Swift and foreign exchange reserves by the International Monetary Fund. Conducting trade in local currencies will strengthen the Saudi riyal and the UAE dirham within the Brics bloc.

Which currency will emerge as the Brics vehicle currency in the short and medium term is still open. This currency will have to be strong and offer stable relations with the rest of the world – first and foremost the dollar – and be freely convertible. The renminbi has shown its limitations in playing this role due to depreciation and exchange rate volatility in addition to Chinese restrictions on financial accounts and a highly managed offshore renminbi market.

Only two real contenders

Among the new currencies the only ones that meet these criteria are the Saudi riyal and the UAE dirham. Both currencies have full capital account convertibility, for residents and foreigners, and have been pegged to the dollar since the mid-1990s. While the Saudi government might have some qualms about internationalising its currency, the UAE seems more market friendly, open to trading in all the other Brics currencies. As a market maker it could fulfil the role of vehicle currency in the short term.

The well-developed financial centre in the UAE would offer Brics partners cash deposits or dirham instruments, or freely convert Brics currencies into dollars. Offshore renminbi holdings were never free of restrictions and exchange rate risk. This will satisfy the need for dollars, which have been denied to them by China. Buying dirham cash or instruments poses no risk as they can be freely converted into dollars at a fixed exchange rate.

The UAE financial system would have to play the role of the EPU, accepting strong and weak currencies, such as rupees for remittances or renminbi for imports from China, and disposing of them or adding to their portfolio of reserves. These will be held by private financial institutions as well as the Central Bank of the United Arab Emirates. They would step in where political agreement has failed to provide a mechanism.

The only open question at the moment is in which direction the pressures for appreciation of the dirham or the depreciation of weak currencies within Brics will lead. The revaluation of the D-Mark in the European case is worth studying.

Source:Herbert Poenisch

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ING

Economic

Central Bank

Inflation and central banks

Following the revelation that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) discussed rate hikes at its last meeting (and that is not a typo – we did mean hikes, not cuts), the May CPI data will probably raise the question, "well, why didn't they?"

We think that the May data will show a 0.3% month-on-month decline in the price level, mainly driven by seasonal declines in holiday prices as well as clothing. On top of this, we will also see some influence from sharply lower retail gasoline prices. But the May 2023 CPI index also suffered from the same negative influences, and we think the 2023 drag from recreation was larger than we will see this year.

The net result of all of this will be an inflation rate that could edge higher again from 3.6% year-on-year to 3.7%, with an outside chance that it rises to 3.8%. Australian inflation hasn't fallen on a monthly basis since it troughed in December 2023 at 3.4%. Pressure to respond with higher rates has to be growing. If we see inflation rise again, we will think very hard about incorporating a rate hike in our forecasts. There is still one more inflation reading (31 July) before the 6 August RBA meeting, and that is the more important quarterly report for the second quarter of this year, so it'll be a high-risk gamble if we do.

Japan also publishes Tokyo CPI data for June. This could be the highlight of the week for Japan as the Tokyo number provides a gauge of the nationwide CPI trend ahead. We expect Tokyo's inflation to accelerate to 2.5% YoY in June from 2.2% in May due to a pickup in pipeline prices. If inflationary pressures become more dominant over the next two months, then the possibility of a July rate hike will increase significantly.

Another central bank that may be under some pressure to review its rate stance next week is the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP). There is little chance of a hike here, but Governor Eli Remolona's recent suggestion that the BSP would not need to wait for the Federal Reserve before cutting rates has been silenced by PHP weakness (probably as a direct result). The PHP is the region's weakest currency month-to-date and has needed BSP intervention to support it. More recent comments from other BSP officials have re-grouped behind the view that the BSP will be on hold until after the Fed.

We are not looking for any change in BSP policy at this meeting, absent any sudden weakening in the PHP, which could follow any suggestion that front-running the Fed was being reconsidered. Let's hope not.

North Asia (ex-China) is being supported by semiconductors and tourism

As well as inflation data, Japan also publishes its monthly industrial production and labour reports on Friday 28 June. The normalisation of auto production should have a positive impact on the economy and will boost employment and manufacturing production. In addition, retail sales should grow thanks to strong tourism and a steady improvement in labour market conditions.

South Korean industrial production should also rise in May. Semiconductor output is expected to rebound after two months of decline as inventories are restocked. However, exports and industry data point to a decline in auto production, so the overall monthly gain is likely to be modest. Retail sales will most likely fall due to a drop in car sales. But this should be partially offset by an increase in consumer goods sales, which will be boosted by an increase in foreign tourists during the May holidays.

Apart from the monthly activity data, survey data is also due for release. Strong external demand for chips and autos should boost business sentiment, especially in the manufacturing sector. The consumer confidence index is likely to remain below 100 as tight credit conditions and sluggish asset market performance are still weighing on consumer sentiment.

Indian fiscal data for May

May fiscal deficit figures for May are released on 28 June. So far this year, the deficits have been coming in close to last year's INR totals, which is likely to be sufficient to keep the deficit on target for the government's 5.4% (GDP) fiscal year deficit for 2024/25. Something in the vicinity of last year's INR2.1tr deficit for May 2023 will keep things on track.

Strong fiscal discipline is one of the reasons for the improvement in the outlook for India's sovereign credit rating to positive by S&P recently, so we mustn't see any slippage here following the recent election.

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Warren Takunda

Commodity

Natural-gas futures trade modestly lower, with U.S. supply up within market forecasts

Oil futures edged higher Friday and remained on track for solid weekly gains as investors gauged the potential for a wider Middle Eastern conflict that could endanger crude flows from the region.

Falling U.S. crude and gasoline inventories offered reassurance on domestic demand prospects, also providing support for oil prices.

Price moves

West Texas Intermediate crude CL00 for August delivery CL.1 CLQ24 rose 22 cents, or 0.3%, to $81.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, on track for a weekly gain of more than 4%.August Brent crude BRN00 BRNQ24, the global benchmark, was up 14 cents, or 0.2%, at $85.85 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe, headed for a 3.9% rise on the week.July gasoline RBN24 added 1% to $2.5254 a gallon, trading over 5% higher on the week, while July heating oil HON24 inched up 0.3% to $2.5328 a gallon, up 2.5% for the week.Natural gas for July delivery NGN24 traded at $2.755 per million British thermal units, up 0.5% for the session but on track for a weekly loss of over 4%.

Market drivers

Oil is set to end the week in positive territory as geopolitical issues could continue to support prices, "especially as tensions in the Middle East could exacerbate if the conflict expands," George Khoury, global head of education and research at CFI, said in emailed commentary.

"These tensions introduce market uncertainty and could drive more volatility in crude prices," he said.

Exchanges of fire between Israel and Iranian-backed Hezbollah fighters over the Lebanon border, along with increasingly hostile rhetoric, are fanning fears of a wider conflict. Israel's military has approved plans for a possible invasion of Lebanon, while the leader of Hezbollah has threatened that nowhere in Israel would be safe and that the conflict could even engulf Cyprus.

"With the prospect of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah increasing, the entire region could soon be drawn into a conflict that has the potential to disrupt one of the globe's main production areas," Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, said in a note.

Meanwhile, concerns about demand were eased by the release Thursday of the Energy Information Administration's weekly storage data, which showed U.S. crude inventories down 2.5 million barrels and gasoline stocks falling a much greater than expected 2.3 million barrels.

In other energy trading, prices for natural gas extended earlier modest declines after the EIA reported Friday that U.S. supplies of the fuel in storage rose by 71 billion cubic feet for the week that ended June 14.

On average, analysts forecast a gain of 72 billion cubic feet, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. The data were released a day later than usual due to Wednesday's Juneteenth holiday.

Source: MarketWatch

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Samantha Luan

Economic

Political

The average inflation rate when Donald Trump was president was 1.9%. During Joe Biden’s presidency, inflation has averaged 5.4%. Many voters think of Biden as the inflation guy.

Yet some prominent investors think future inflation will be worse if Trump wins the 2024 election than if Biden wins. In a June 18 analysis, Goldman Sachs argued that investors should buy gold if they’re worried about the inflationary impact of Trump’s economic agenda, should he become president.

“We see value in long gold positions as an inflation hedge from geopolitical shock including tariffs, Fed subordination risk, and debt fears,” Goldman analysts wrote. While they didn't identify that as the Trump agenda, those three potential shocks are a clear reference to economic policies Trump has been floating.

Trump wants to impose a new 60% tariff on all imports from China and a 10% tariff on all other imports. Since tariffs are taxes paid by Americans, that would raise a typical family’s costs by $1,700 a year, according to the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Shoppers would be spending more for the same stuff, which is basically what inflation is.

Trump also thinks the White House should have more control over the Federal Reserve, a prospect that would alarm financial markets if it ever happened. The Fed has a tough enough job as it is trying to keep inflation and employment at optimal levels, and political interference from the White House could make that a lot harder.

Trump in particular has pressed the Fed to lower interest rates, even though the standard playbook for bringing down inflation is raising rates to slow the economy. If Trump won a second term and tried to force his own agenda on the Fed, it could easily stoke inflation and undermine confidence in the US economy.

Trump also wants to extend a set of tax cuts from 2017 that are due to expire at the end of 2025. That would raise the national debt by $4 trillion to $5 trillion, something Trump doesn’t seem to care about. But markets do. At some point, excessive amounts of debt flooding the market becomes “money printing.” That's another factor that can fuel inflation.

Even though there are two major candidates, there are four possible outcomes for the 2024 election.

Trump or Biden could each win with their party gaining complete control of Congress, or they could win with a divided Congress. That’s important because it will determine if the president can exploit his party’s control of Congress to pursue a partisan agenda. If the opposition party controls at least one house of Congress, it can block many of the president’s preferred policies.

The Smart Money Is Preparing For Trumpflation_1

But if Republicans gain full control, watch out.

“The upside risks to inflation appear larger under a Republican sweep,” Goldman advised. In addition to higher tariffs and more Fed-bashing under Trump, the investment bank points out that a Trump crackdown on immigration could trim the labor force, worsen labor shortages in some industries, fuel higher wages, and push prices up.

Another recent analysis by Moody’s Analytics reaches similar conclusions about the economy during a second Trump term. “The policies adopted under the Republican Sweep scenario result in higher inflation and weaker economic growth,” Moody’s Analytics found. That’s largely because new import tariffs and less immigration under Trump would force prices up and drag on growth.

In a May analysis, Oxford Economics found that new tariffs and other Trump policies could push the inflation rate a full percentage point higher than it would be without those efforts. Inflationary Trump policies could also compel the Fed to hold off lowering interest rates and maybe even raise rates further to head off new inflationary pressures. That would likely enrage Trump and possibly compel him to try firing Fed Chair Jay Powell, whose appointment lasts until 2026.

Voters who think back on Trump’s presidency as a time of low inflation might wonder how a second term could be so different. The answer is that the COVID pandemic and geopolitical events such as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have transformed the economy and left far less margin for error.

The United States and other nations are now “re-shoring” supply chains for key categories of goods, which should make supplies less vulnerable to shocks but also raise costs. Labor shortages for much of the last three years have pushed wages up, another factor contributing to higher prices.

Global energy markets are also much tighter than they were before COVID. Back then, American drillers and OPEC oil nations were competing for market share by basically oversupplying the market. That kept prices low. But plunging demand during COVID led to massive losses and new “capital discipline” that prioritizes profits over share. Virtually no energy producer is willing to overproduce these days, for any reason.

While inflation soared under Biden, it’s heading back toward normal levels. Many economists expect more of the same should he win reelection: continued disinflation, eventual Fed rate cuts, predictable trade policies, and moderate growth. The ultimate status quo scenario is a Biden win with Republicans controlling at least one chamber of Congress, allowing them to block progressive Democratic legislation.

Biden's economic agenda is still a tough sell to voters, who sometimes have selective memories. Biden is battling a “Trumpnesia” phenomenon in which voters forget about Trump’s erratic handling of the COVID pandemic and other controversies and only remember that gasoline cost less than $3 per gallon. If there’s another Trump presidential term, it could generate very different memories.