Foreign Investors Turn Cautious on Japan Stocks Amid Geopolitical and Inflation Pressures

Economic

Summary:

For the first time in 12 weeks, foreign investors became net sellers of Japanese equities, driven by concerns over geopolitical risks and rising inflation....

Investor Sentiment Wavers After Prolonged Optimism

In the week ending June 21, foreign investors sold a net ¥524.3 billion (USD 3.62 billion) in Japanese equities, marking their first week of net divestment since March 29. This shift came after 11 consecutive weeks of sustained inflows, underlining a change in sentiment as external uncertainties intensify.

The reversal was prompted by renewed tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about Japan’s energy security given its reliance on imported oil. Investors are increasingly pricing in the risk that energy price shocks could translate into broader inflationary pressures, eroding corporate margins and consumer purchasing power.

Rising Inflation Adds Pressure on Central Bank Policy

Japan’s core inflation rate reached a two-year high in May, adding complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory. While the central bank has so far adopted a cautious stance on interest rate normalization, the inflation trend now puts pressure on policymakers to resume tightening sooner than expected. This introduces additional uncertainty for equity markets, as higher rates could weigh on valuations and corporate borrowing costs.

Although the recent week saw net outflows, foreign investors still injected approximately ¥6.81 trillion into Japanese stocks in the current quarter, the highest quarterly total in two years. This suggests that the broader investment thesis on Japan—driven by favorable corporate reforms and a weak yen—remains intact despite short-term caution.

Bond Market Activity Reflects Diverging Risk Preferences

Foreign demand for Japanese long-term government bonds also declined, with net outflows of ¥368.8 billion last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of net purchases and may indicate broader risk aversion linked to expectations of rising yields or shifting global rate differentials.

However, short-term Japanese bills remained attractive, with foreigners purchasing ¥1.5 trillion—the most in nine weeks. This preference for shorter-duration assets signals a defensive positioning, where investors seek liquidity and lower duration risk while maintaining exposure to Japanese fixed income.

Japanese Investors Shift Toward Global Bonds

Meanwhile, Japanese participants continued their sixth straight week of foreign equity selling, offloading ¥88.2 billion worth of overseas stocks. Their risk aversion in equity markets appears to be paired with a growing appetite for foreign bonds. Japanese investors purchased ¥615.5 billion in long-term foreign bonds last week, adding to the prior week’s ¥1.57 trillion net buying. This sustained demand suggests confidence in overseas fixed income returns, possibly due to yield differentials and relative currency stability.

While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns triggered a temporary retreat from Japanese equities, the underlying foreign interest remains strong, as reflected in quarterly inflows. The simultaneous movement toward short-term debt and foreign bonds reveals a preference for safe-haven and yield-enhancing strategies in a period of policy uncertainty. The direction of Japan’s inflation trajectory and central bank signaling will be critical in determining whether the latest outflows are a short-lived adjustment or the beginning of a broader reassessment.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Shifting Trade Routes as Tariff Pressures Persist

With U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods still reaching up to 55 percent despite temporary relief measures under the Trump-era agreement, Chinese exporters are accelerating their realignment strategies. The latest data signals a pronounced pivot: UK imports from China surged to GBP 6 billion in April 2025, an 11 percent increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in over two years. China’s own export figures to the UK in May also hit a peak unseen since mid-2022, illustrating a consistent redirection of trade away from the United States.

At the forefront of this trend are fast-fashion and discount e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu. By May 2025, these platforms had recorded a 66 percent year-on-year growth in the UK market, with their combined shipment value nearing USD 2 billion. This surge reflects the strength of China’s model of mass production, agile logistics, and tailored consumer appeal. The strategy relies on micro-sized, low-cost packages that bypass traditional trade structures and cater directly to individual buyers, especially within the EU’s and UK’s growing online marketplaces.

Technology Sector Follows the Momentum

Beyond fashion and consumer goods, China’s tech exports to the UK are rising sharply. Smartphone shipments increased by 26 percent, while computers climbed by 11 percent in the first five months of 2025. In contrast, exports to the United States in these categories fell by 18 percent over the same period. This differential highlights not only the deterrent effect of U.S. tariffs but also the receptiveness of the UK market to affordable Chinese technology products.

British authorities are taking note of this rapid influx. While lower-cost imports can ease inflationary pressures—especially amid a volatile global economic environment—concerns are mounting about the long-term competitiveness of domestic producers. UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed that the government is monitoring for potential dumping practices, particularly in price-sensitive sectors such as steel and aluminum. Measures may be taken if evidence of below-cost pricing emerges.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, is closely watching how rising imports of cheap goods could influence its monetary policy stance. If sustained, this shift could offer central bankers a deflationary tailwind, potentially influencing interest rate paths later in the year.

Trade Diversification and Strategic Timing

While China accelerates its presence in the UK and broader EU markets, it has not abandoned the U.S. entirely. In fact, exporters are reportedly ramping up shipments to American ports—including Los Angeles and Long Beach—before a temporary truce on tariffs expires on August 12. Tracking data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California confirms a renewed wave of Chinese cargo activity in early summer, reflecting strategic stockpiling ahead of possible tariff

The adaptability of China’s export system remains one of its core competitive advantages. Whether navigating U.S. protectionism or entering new markets, Chinese firms demonstrate an ability to adjust supply chains, exploit logistics routes, and cater to diverse consumer behaviors. Their formula—low cost, high speed, and market-specific customization—continues to yield commercial leverage in nearly any geopolitical environment.

The ongoing reconfiguration of Chinese trade flows underscores a broader evolution in global commerce. While tariffs have reshaped traditional U.S.-China trade, they have not diminished China’s global export power. Instead, they have redirected it. As Chinese firms increasingly court the UK and Europe, governments and businesses alike must assess the dual-edged implications of cheap, fast imports—economic relief on one hand, competitive strain on the other. Whether this shift becomes structural or merely tactical may depend on the next wave of trade policy decisions on both sides of the Atlantic.

Source: Bloomberg

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Initial Signs of Recovery Mask Deeper Structural Hurdles

Argentina’s first-quarter GDP figures for 2025 have offered a mixed narrative. Official data show a 5.8 percent year-on-year increase and a modest 0.8 percent rise from the previous quarter. While these numbers mark a technical rebound from the deep contraction of 2024, analysts caution against overestimating their significance. The apparent growth is largely attributed to favorable base effects, as the economy was still reeling from sharp fiscal consolidation and currency devaluation triggered by President Javier Milei’s administration in late 2023.

The 2024 downturn, driven by aggressive austerity and a collapse in public spending, created a low comparative base that inflates current year-on-year metrics. Alberto Muller of the CEPA research center notes that, excluding the strong performance in agriculture, the rest of the economy remains subdued. Non-agricultural GDP in the first quarter was still 1.1 percent below its level in early 2023, reflecting persistent weakness in industry and services.

Government Optimism Rooted in Consumption Uptick

Argentina’s economic authorities, however, have framed the Q1 growth figures as a validation of their reform strategy. Economy Minister Luis Caputo emphasized the rebound in personal consumption, attributing it to easing inflation and improved real income levels. While this rise in household spending provides a short-term boost, its sustainability is in question. Analysts warn that the current momentum may be temporary, reflecting only a cyclical rebound from the steep drop in purchasing power at the end of 2023.

Market research firms such as ACM also note that the March performance was weaker than expected, which dragged down quarterly averages. Additional headwinds include delays in ongoing negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and uncertainty surrounding exchange rate policies, particularly as the government dismantles foreign exchange controls.

Challenges to Meeting the 5 Percent Growth Target

To hit the 5 percent growth goal set for 2025, Argentina must significantly accelerate its recovery trajectory. Iván Carrino estimates that maintaining the Q1 growth pace across the remaining quarters would result in full-year expansion of just 3.2 percent, well below the government’s target and International Monetary Fund projections. This underscores the gap between initial recovery and sustained expansion.

Economist Alberto Muller stresses the importance of invigorating private sector activity, especially through capital investment and export growth. Yet the recent appreciation of the peso could undercut Argentina’s external competitiveness. A stronger currency raises the cost of locally produced goods and services in international markets, complicating efforts to boost industrial output and attract foreign demand, particularly in tourism.

Fragile Gains Demand Broader Policy Anchors

Argentina’s early recovery in 2025 is a welcome change from the sharp contraction seen under the weight of previous austerity measures. Still, the economy remains vulnerable to both internal imbalances and external shocks. The rebound in agriculture cannot substitute for broad-based, multi-sectoral growth. Moreover, the current trajectory relies too heavily on cyclical factors like improved consumer sentiment, rather than structural improvements in productivity or investment.

Achieving the 5 percent target will require not only favorable global conditions but also coherent domestic strategies that balance fiscal discipline with growth stimulation. This includes advancing IMF negotiations, maintaining monetary credibility, and encouraging private capital through policy stability. Without these, the initial signs of recovery may lose momentum, and Argentina could once again fall short of its economic aspirations.

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Shifting Trade Dynamics and the Emergence of New Threats

According to PwC Vietnam’s June 2025 report, domestic and multinational companies operating in Vietnam are experiencing rising pressure from new U.S. tariff policies enacted in April 2025. These measures, particularly targeting sectors such as textiles, footwear, wood products, furniture, agriculture, and seafood, have escalated production costs and narrowed competitive margins for exporters. With tariffs reaching as high as 46 percent, companies are being forced to reassess market priorities and cost structures in real time.

The study, involving a wide range of firms including 33 percent with direct export ties to the U.S., reveals that 86 percent of respondents view American tariff hikes as a major concern. The most immediate challenges cited are increasing costs (23 percent), market redirection (15 percent), and reduced demand from U.S. buyers (15 percent). These responses underscore both direct and spillover effects across supply chains, customer behavior, and operational planning.

Supply Chain Diversification as a Primary Risk Response

One of the most notable trends is a pivot away from overdependence on Chinese sourcing. This strategic decoupling is not solely reactive to the U.S. tariff regime but also aligned with long-term objectives of supply chain resilience. Currently, 44 percent of surveyed businesses are relocating part of their supply sourcing to countries outside China, while 34 percent are renegotiating contracts with existing suppliers to secure better pricing and logistical flexibility.

In parallel, Vietnamese exporters are exploring untapped markets in the EU, ASEAN, and Japan. These regions present lower trade barriers and are covered under Vietnam’s expansive network of free trade agreements. This redirection represents more than a tactical move—it signals an evolution in the country’s export philosophy, one increasingly anchored in regional integration and multi-market agility.

Operational Restructuring for Cost and Efficiency Gains

Facing margin pressure, 40 percent of firms are advancing automation and lean manufacturing strategies. Another 32 percent are intensifying waste reduction and energy efficiency initiatives. These changes reflect a broader shift from cost-cutting to structural transformation. Instead of short-term austerity, businesses are emphasizing sustainable, technology-driven models to withstand prolonged external shocks.

PwC Vietnam’s findings show that both local and multinational firms are converging toward process optimization, though the methods vary by size and capacity. Around 63 percent of domestic firms and 37 percent of foreign-invested enterprises have initiated measures to refine production through digitalization, investment in advanced manufacturing, and end-to-end process audits.

Market Diversification and Pricing Strategy Recalibration

In response to shifting demand patterns and customer price sensitivity, 41 percent of businesses are seeking to expand their footprint in new geographical markets. Meanwhile, 25 percent are reevaluating their pricing models. This signals an intent not only to pass through added costs but to recalibrate value propositions in line with regional consumer behavior and purchasing power.

Such diversification efforts also aim to minimize the vulnerability of relying on a single dominant market, in this case, the United States. The broader aim is to cultivate a resilient portfolio of trade relationships that offer both stability and scalability in a turbulent geopolitical landscape.

From Tactical Adjustment to Strategic Reinvention

PwC’s advisory emphasizes that dealing with tariffs should not be viewed as a reactive measure confined to operational trimming. Instead, Vietnamese companies are being urged to undergo systemic realignment—rebuilding their value chains around principles of sustainability, digital adaptability, and strategic independence. The shift from conventional models to agile, technology-enabled operations is seen as crucial for long-term competitiveness.

According to Mohammad Mudasser, Director of Trade Consulting and Transformation at PwC Vietnam, 2025 is a year of both heightened risk and rare opportunity. Despite global uncertainty, Vietnamese firms exhibit adaptability that positions them for leadership in innovation and growth. He stresses that turning current challenges into momentum for transformation depends on whether companies can leverage their internal strengths and realign around a forward-looking vision.

The imposition of tariffs by the United States has exposed key structural vulnerabilities in Vietnam’s export-oriented economy. However, the responses documented—supply chain diversification, operational modernization, and market expansion—indicate that companies are not merely absorbing the impact but actively recalibrating their strategic direction. This suggests that while tariffs may impose immediate pain, they also serve as a catalyst for much-needed transformation. Whether Vietnamese enterprises can capitalize on this moment will shape their trajectory in an increasingly protectionist and multipolar global economy.

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Defensive Positioning Reflects Deepening Investor Caution

Institutional investors are adopting a highly cautious stance as they head into the summer months, particularly with the July 9 U.S.–EU tariff deadline approaching and global markets still processing fragile geopolitical developments. The 2024 August sell-off—driven by low liquidity and amplified fears of global economic deceleration—has left a lingering impact, encouraging firms like HSBC and Goldman Sachs to pre-emptively shield portfolios from potential shocks.

HSBC’s global CIO, Xavier Baraton, has taken a bearish three-month view, asserting that markets are overly optimistic and unlikely to receive the positive catalysts they are pricing in. His strategy includes purchasing equity put options as downside protection. Goldman Sachs has echoed this sentiment, advising investors to employ a mix of volatility, interest rate, and trend-following hedging strategies to guard against unexpected declines.

Geopolitical and Trade Risk Undermine Confidence

Much of the concern is driven by geopolitical and policy-related uncertainty. The tenuous ceasefire between Israel and Iran, combined with heightened oil price volatility, creates a precarious environment for risk assets. Simultaneously, the sluggish progress in U.S.–EU tariff negotiations, with the deadline just weeks away, underscores the vulnerability of global trade flows to renewed disruption.

Although global equities have rallied by 7 percent in 2025 and remain near record highs, the subdued level of the VIX—currently below 18—might not fully reflect underlying risks. Futures contracts covering the July 9 period show a noticeable premium over the spot VIX, indicating market expectations of short-term turbulence.

This situation reflects a broader pattern where markets exhibit seemingly stable behavior despite accumulating risk. Investors, such as those at LGIM, note the disconnect between market complacency and mounting trade and fiscal threats, particularly given the looming U.S. debt expansion from Trump's proposed legislative package.

Automated Trading and Market Feedback Loops

Another layer of complexity stems from algorithmic trading. Volatility control funds, which collectively manage an estimated USD 700 billion, operate on feedback loops that can inadvertently amplify market movements. When volatility is low, these funds tend to buy risk assets, which suppresses volatility further. However, if volatility surges, they aggressively unwind positions, potentially accelerating downturns.

RLAM's multi-asset team has expressed concern over this automated behavior. While their internal systems signal increased equity allocation, human managers have chosen to override the models, trimming risk exposure in anticipation of possible dislocations. This decision reflects an understanding that programmed optimism may be misaligned with macroeconomic and geopolitical realities.

Energy Volatility Complicates Currency Expectations

Oil prices are exhibiting unusually erratic behavior, fluctuating between USD 63 and USD 81 per barrel in June alone—one of the most volatile months in over a decade. This has fueled speculation that a potential supply shock, particularly from disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, could shift the global risk landscape.

Goldman Sachs’ Simon Dangoor highlights that such a scenario could reverse expectations of a weakening dollar. A sudden spike in oil prices may strengthen the greenback in a flight-to-safety dynamic, challenging consensus currency forecasts and putting additional pressure on emerging markets.

Summer Outlook: Risks Override Seasonal Calm

Options market activity suggests traders anticipate more frequent and pronounced single-day volatility events, similar to those seen in August 2024. UBS's Gerry Fowler interprets this as a warning sign for investors expecting a quiet summer. In fact, reduced participation—typical of summer months—could exacerbate volatility if unexpected catalysts arise.

Despite an apparent easing of Middle East tensions, the undercurrents of global risk have not subsided. Investors are increasingly aware that even subtle shocks could trigger disproportionate reactions in illiquid markets.

While surface-level indicators show resilient markets and subdued volatility, institutional behavior tells a different story. Elevated hedging activity, reluctance to follow automated signals, and anticipation of trade or oil-driven shocks reveal a financial system bracing for instability. The thin liquidity of the summer months may amplify even minor tremors, making the current environment one where tactical defensiveness may prove prudent. Investors are not betting on disaster—but they are no longer assuming calm.

Source: Reuters

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Economic

Post-Brexit Anniversary: A Turning Point for National Accountability

June 23 marks the ninth anniversary of the Brexit referendum—a pivotal moment that removed the UK from the regulatory frameworks of the European Union. Without the EU to attribute shortcomings to, Britain is now left confronting its own economic architecture. This shift has redefined both responsibility and opportunity in the country’s development path.

At its inception, EU membership offered Britain access to harmonized rules that facilitated the movement of capital, labor, and goods. The alignment among member states, both economically and culturally, helped foster collective prosperity and elevated the bloc’s global influence. However, over time, expanding authority from Brussels and growth-inhibiting regulations began to clash with the UK’s market-oriented system. Brexit was framed as a solution to regain agility—politically and economically—in a rapidly evolving world order.

Political Normalization After Initial Unrest

In the aftermath of the referendum, the UK endured several years of turbulence. But by 2025, the political climate has stabilized. This is not necessarily an endorsement of policy effectiveness, but rather a recognition that the heightened partisan volatility has eased. Political debates have returned to a more typical cadence, allowing for clearer policy discussion and long-term planning.

Britain has begun leveraging its ability to act independently on international trade matters. Agreements with the United States and India, alongside the temporary suspension of import tariffs on select goods, illustrate the country’s improved responsiveness to global trade disruptions. However, none of these actions yet reflect the scale or ambition needed to refute the perception that Brexit represents economic retrenchment. While there is a newfound capacity to shape bilateral partnerships, the scope and depth of these efforts remain limited.

Taxation and Public Sector Expansion as Economic Constraints

The UK now bears some of the highest tax burdens since 1948. Tax revenue has increased from 37 percent of GDP in 2016 to 41 percent in 2025. This rise corresponds with a surge in national debt, now at GBP 1.2 trillion, and an increase in government spending from 40 percent to 45 percent of GDP. These changes mirror the fiscal characteristics of European welfare states that Brexit was partly meant to avoid.

Policy decisions made by both Conservative and Labour governments—such as higher corporate tax rates and elevated employer National Insurance contributions—have undermined business growth. The tax system has also grown more complex, reducing transparency and efficiency. This suggests a correlational link between post-Brexit fiscal strategies and the stagnation in private sector dynamism.

Public Sector Inefficiencies Undermine Economic Innovation

Nearly half of the UK’s economic activity is now directed by the public sector. In the absence of profit-and-loss accountability, inefficiencies and waste have become systemic. Though regulatory reforms have made some progress in easing outdated planning laws, these are overshadowed by expansive net-zero commitments and employment laws that disincentivize hiring. Businesses increasingly report burdensome compliance processes that redirect attention from innovation, investment, and market engagement.

Brexit has, above all, clarified the root of Britain’s economic dysfunctions. With no external bureaucracy to blame, internal mismanagement and systemic inefficiencies have become more visible. This shift in narrative, while uncomfortable, may yield long-term benefits by focusing reform efforts on domestic policy failings rather than external scapegoats.

Short-term disruptions following Brexit, including political uncertainty and trade adjustments, should not be the sole metrics by which its success is judged. The long-term impact will hinge on the trajectory of the EU and the UK’s ability to forge meaningful alliances and implement structurally sound policies in a multipolar global economy. The hope is that through cycles of policy experimentation and leadership transitions, the UK will eventually cultivate a governance model that capitalizes on its post-Brexit freedom while addressing its enduring economic flaws.

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Vietnam’s Trade Performance in the First Half of June 2025

By June 15, 2025, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover had reached USD 390.91 billion, an increase of 15.3 percent or USD 51.84 billion compared to the same point in 2024. However, this cumulative growth stands in contrast to a noticeable month-on-month decline in early June, where total trade fell to nearly USD 35 billion, down 17.6 percent from the second half of May 2025. The divergence between short-term and cumulative performance invites an exploration of underlying trade dynamics.

Exports during the first half of June 2025 amounted to USD 17.54 billion, a decline of 22.7 percent from late May. This downturn was concentrated in key sectors including electronics, machinery, and garments. Specifically, exports of computers, electronic products, and components declined by USD 801 million, or 15.7 percent, while machinery and related equipment dropped by USD 789 million (27.2 percent). The mobile phone sector also showed a notable contraction of USD 777 million (29.1 percent), suggesting a short-term demand compression in global technology markets or cyclical inventory adjustments from key trading partners.

Despite this temporary pullback, the year-to-date export total rose to USD 197.88 billion, up 13.7 percent from the same period in 2024. The primary drivers of this growth were robust performance in high-tech manufacturing and agriculture. Computers and electronics contributed an additional USD 12.35 billion, a 40.7 percent rise, while machinery and equipment rose by USD 3.17 billion, or 15.1 percent. Coffee exports, reflecting both favorable global prices and increased output, surged by 62.6 percent, adding USD 1.94 billion to the national export ledger.

This pattern indicates a relationship where long-term structural competitiveness in key export sectors coexists with short-term sensitivity to global economic cycles, especially in electronics and apparel.

Import Growth Reflects Investment and Production Activity

Imports reached USD 17.46 billion during the first half of June 2025, decreasing by 11.6 percent (USD 2.3 billion) from the second half of May. The contraction was most prominent in electronics, which dropped by nearly USD 1 billion (14.9 percent), followed by machinery and equipment (USD 343 million, down 12.4 percent) and corn (USD 117 million, down 69.1 percent). This suggests a temporary slowdown in industrial procurement or supply chain adjustments.

Nevertheless, cumulative imports stood at USD 193.03 billion by mid-June, rising 16.9 percent (USD 27.96 billion) over the same period in 2024. The electronics sector again played a central role, with a USD 16.68 billion increase (36.9 percent), while machinery imports rose by USD 4.71 billion (22.8 percent). These gains indicate continued demand for capital goods and intermediate inputs, reinforcing the correlation between import trends and domestic manufacturing momentum.

Trade Surplus Narrows in June But Remains Positive

Vietnam posted a trade surplus of USD 83 million in the first half of June. This relatively small surplus contrasts with earlier periods but keeps the year-to-date surplus at a healthy USD 4.84 billion. The surplus reflects Vietnam’s ongoing role as a net exporter, supported by the resilience of high-value manufacturing sectors.

The sharp decline in both exports and imports during early June appears to reflect temporary factors such as seasonal fluctuations, logistical constraints, or softening external demand in select sectors. However, the persistent rise in cumulative trade value suggests that the fundamentals of Vietnam’s external sector remain strong. The disproportionate growth in electronics and machinery indicates deeper industrial integration and suggests that the import of capital goods is likely to support future export capacity.

These trends reveal a clear correlation between rising import demand for production inputs and subsequent export performance. Moreover, while the monthly fluctuations signal vulnerability to global cycles, the underlying trajectory points to sustained competitiveness in both high-tech and agricultural sectors.

Vietnam's trade trajectory in 2025, as reflected by the data through mid-June, showcases a dual narrative: short-term softness coexists with long-term expansion. The cumulative increase in trade value, led by electronics, machinery, and coffee, underscores structural resilience. Policymakers and businesses should remain alert to external market signals while leveraging Vietnam’s growing role in global supply chains to sustain this momentum through the second half of the year.

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