Ethereum Price at Critical Levels: Breakout or Breakdown Next?

The supply of XRP on exchanges is rapidly declining and is now approaching 1.5 billion XRP. XRP outflows might suggest institutional custody moves as long-term holders shift tokens off centralized exchanges. This decline is fueled by XRP ETFs, which have seen demand since their debut.

In a tweet, X handle unknown DLT observed that XRP ETFs are absorbing supply fast as institutional appetite for XRP exposure continued to build through exchange-traded funds.

The group of five XRP spot ETFs that have launched since Nov. 13, notably those from Canary, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, have surpassed $1.14 billion in cumulative total net inflow as of Dec. 22, according to SoSoValue.

According to SoSoValue, total net assets across spot XRP ETFs reached about $1.24 billion as of Dec. 26.

According to unknown DLT, XRP ETFs are absorbing supply fast, which brings up a potential supply shock if this continues.

2026 scenario presents

According to unknown DLT, with only about 1.5 billion XRP left on exchanges and about 750 million absorbed in weeks, a supply shock might be likely by early 2026. The analyst says this aligns with the Clarity Act, forcing price discovery and enabling real institutional use. He believes that 2026 is the inflection point where XRP shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure.

2026 teases game-changing updates for XRP Ledger aimed at positioning it for massive utility.

The recently released rippled v 3.0.0 release adds amendments such as Lending Protocol, Dynamic MPT and fixDelegateV1_1, all of which are nearly code complete but not yet open for voting.

XRPL Lending Protocol, a new protocol-native system that enables on-ledger lending for institutions while also allowing XRP holders to earn institutional-grade yield, is underway. XRP reversed a five-day drop on Dec. 26 and is trading at $1.85.

XRP's price remains in a range of $1.85-$1.91, with next resistance near $2 and support near $1.86, suggesting a potential decisive break ahead.

Bitcoin is about to close 2025 almost exactly where it started.

After riding a strong bullish wave for most of the year, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. ETF inflows were strong, regulatory progress improved sentiment, and on-chain activity picked up. But the rally didn’t last.

A mix of macro disappointments, leverage wipeouts, and heavy whale selling cooled the market, pushing BTC back into the $80,000-$90,000 range by December.

Galaxy Digital says that while 2025 may end quietly, it helps lay the groundwork for what comes next.

Galaxy Digital: 2026 Is Hard to Call

In its annual report, Galaxy Digital took a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. While the firm expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, it admits that 2026 is far less predictable.

According to Galaxy, Bitcoin still hasn’t fully regained bullish momentum. Until BTC can hold above the $100,000-$105,000 range, downside risk remains on the table.

Options Markets Show Extreme Price Ranges

That uncertainty is clearly showing up in derivatives markets. Options traders are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026. By the end of 2026, expectations stretch even wider from $50,000 to $250,000.

2025 Predictions Fell Short

Galaxy also reviewed its 2025 Bitcoin calls and several missed the mark.

Bitcoin did not cross $150,000 or test $185,000 as expected. While BTC briefly became one of the top risk-adjusted performers earlier in the year, it’s now on track to finish 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also fell short of the $250 billion AUM target, reaching about $141 billion instead.

A “Boring” Year May Still Be Bullish

Despite the setbacks, Galaxy believes Bitcoin is maturing into a more traditional macro asset. Volatility has declined, and downside protection now costs more than upside bets – a shift usually seen in established markets like gold.

For Bitcoin, stability may be the real signal of progress.

FAQs

Bitcoin reached an all-time high but ended the year near its starting price, showing reduced volatility and signaling maturation as a macro asset rather than pure speculation.

Traders price wide ranges for 2026, from $50,000 to $250,000, reflecting uncertainty from macro factors like monetary policy, AI spending, and U.S. elections.

Lower volatility and higher cost of downside protection suggest Bitcoin is becoming a more stable, institutional-friendly asset, laying groundwork for long-term growth.

The Bitcoin price has decreased by almost 2% over the last 24 hours and is down nearly 3% from yesterday’s peak. At first glance, nothing about the price appears exciting.

However, something beneath the chart, especially on-chain, has changed for the first time in almost three months, and something else changed this week. These two shifts do not confirm a rally as 2026 approaches, but they might be the first building blocks of one.

A Momentum Shift Begins, but Needs Proof

Two signals have appeared simultaneously. They are separate, but the timing matters.

The first is the On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV measures buying and selling pressure through volume. Between December 21 and December 26, Bitcoin’s price trended higher. OBV did not follow. It made lower highs. That is a bearish OBV divergence. It explains why the price failed to break through (long wick on December 26), as volume didn’t accompany the minor price rise.

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This week, OBV broke above the trend line that connected those lower highs. That breakout suggests stronger buying pressure is forming. The signal is not confirmed until OBV makes a higher high above 1.58 million. If that happens, the Bitcoin price could finally react. That has not happened yet.

The second signal comes from the Hodler net position change metric. This tracks wallets that hold for longer than 155 days. They are the slowest movers in the market.

On December 26, this metric flipped positive for the first time since late September. Long-term holders added 3,783.8 BTC. They do not buy for short-term moves. They buy for conviction. And this is the first time in almost three months that conviction has shown up.

A relief rally needs both sides. OBV must follow through. Hodlers must continue adding. One without the other is not enough.

The Bitcoin Price Map That Decides Year-End Or Early 2026

The Bitcoin price still has work to do. Price levels tell the real story.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim $90,840 for almost two weeks. That level rejected the price on December 12 and has blocked every attempt since. Until price clears that level, every bounce feels temporary.

Above $90,840, the first real relief rally checkpoint sits near $97,190. The BTC price fell below that level on November 14.

If the rally extends, $101,710 and $107,470 are the next zones.

On the downside, support sits at $86,915. It has held since December 19. Losing it opens room to $80,560. Low year-end liquidity increases that risk. For now, based on how long-term investors are positioning, the Bitcoin price can attempt a relief rally toward $90,840 and even beyond if the support at $86,910 holds.

The altcoin market continues to struggle, with Bitcoin dominance hovering near 59% and the Altcoin Season Index sitting close to 37. This signals that capital remains heavily concentrated in Bitcoin, leaving most altcoins under pressure despite pockets of optimism around ETFs and selective narratives.

Market sentiment reflects this imbalance. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dipped to around 28, firmly in “fear” territory, highlighting how cautious investors remain. Liquidity constraints and a clear institutional preference for Bitcoin have kept nearly 90% of top altcoins well below their all-time highs.

Technical Signals Point to a Possible Mini Altseason