Dollar Index: How will the Market React to CB Consumer Index?

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

The dollar index is getting stronger day after day, and major currencies and metals are dropping significantly. Gold touched the $1620 level, but will it further decline? On Tuesday, September 27th CB will release the consumer confidence index and the whole market is waiting.

Fundamentals

In today’s article, we will discuss the effect of the two different options Consumer Confidence Index. To start with, it is important to know that the consumer confidence index is expected to increase to 104.5 from a previous result of 103.2, but is it actually the case?

To start with, the consumer confidence index is released by the conference board, and it measures the confidence of the consumer in the economy. It is one of the leading indicators that investors look into to make decent profits.

What happens if the consumer confidence index came at 104.5 which is expected?

As a rule of thumb, most of the indicators when it is released exactly as the forecast it will not have very big impact on the market, because the market was already impacted with the forecasted result. However, a 104.5 data would be bullish for the USD, and metals and major currencies might drop versus the USD.

What happens if the consumer confidence index came below the expected level of 104.5?

Below the expected level would result in a bearish trend for the USD, and the dollar will lose momentum versus major currencies and metals such as Gold. As a lower-than-expected result would come bearish to the USD.

What happens if the consumer confidence index came above the 104.5 level?

A higher-than-expected result is considered bullish for the USD. If the CCI increased further above 104.5, the dollar index will further increase and becomes stronger versus major currencies and metals.

Dollar Index: How will the Market React to CB Consumer Index?_1

CCI Chart

Biden’s cabinet are looking to further raise interest rate to a forecasted level of 4.4% by the end of 2022. The world central banks are looking further to tighten their monetary policy to fight inflation.

Technical Analysis

Dollar Index: How will the Market React to CB Consumer Index?_2

Gold 30M Chart

The Intraday Gold pattern shows a downward trend with possible prices touching the $1620 level later today if not even $1608.

Support and resistances:

1632.70

1629.32

1627.5

Pivot: 1634.60

1643.23

1639.80

1637.97

Trading Recommendations

High Probability Scenario:

Short Below: 1638.00

Target 1: 1620.00

Target 2: 1608.00

Alternative Scenario:

Long Above: 1638.00

Target 1: 1649.00

Target 2: 1658.00

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You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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King Ten

Trading in tumultuous foreign exchange markets is akin to being in a casino right now, according to some traders navigating markets that have been whipsawed as central banks and governments try to right their economies.

In the last week, sleep-deprived traders have worked flat-out advising clients on the markets' extraordinary moves: the crash of Britain's pound to an all-time low, the Japanese monetary intervention to prop up the falling yen, and the euro's deeper plunge below dollar parity.

Towering above all is the mighty U.S. dollar which is trading at a two-decade peak. Some see no end to the wrenching volatility.

"It really is like a casino right now," said John Doyle, vice president of dealing and trading at Monex USA, who said he is being more hands-on in talking to clients and extra cautious about risk.

"We have had to be extra vigilant of our internal trading policies to ensure we are not taking any undue risks," said Doyle. "Discipline has been key."

Deutsche Bank's Currency Volatility Index – the historical volatility index of the major G7 currencies - jumped to a two-and-a-half year high of 13.55 on Monday.

Whipsawed Forex Traders Say Currency Moves 'Remarkable', Resemble Casino_1

The British pound fell about 5% against the dollar over the last two sessions, its worst 2-session drop since March 2020, drawing comparisons with the typically more volatile emerging market currencies.

The yen remains near a 24-year low against the greenback, despite Japanese monetary authorities last week intervening in the foreign exchange markets to boost the battered currency for the first time since 1998.

While Sterling and the yen have fared extremely poorly against the dollar, the greenback's meteoric rise has spared no major currency. Every G10 currency has slipped against the dollar this year, for an average fall of about 16%.

"It's been a hectic few day for sure, and sleep has been sorely lacking," said Michael Brown, head of market intelligence at payments firm Caxton in London. "I'll blame sterling rather than my coffee habit for that, but heading to bed at 11:30 and waking at around 3:30 to cable (the US-Sterling rate) hitting record lows certainly wasn't much fun."

Whipsawed Forex Traders Say Currency Moves 'Remarkable', Resemble Casino_2

Moves have surprised long-time currency traders and investors.

Akshay Kamboj, co-chief investment officer at Crawford Ventures, a hedge fund trading currencies said while he had been expecting a deep correction in sterling "this deep was not anticipated."

"Our team is working around the clock from multiple global locations," said Kamboj, adding he is not trading sterling because the pound's direction now depends entirely on how the Bank of England reacts.

Volatility Here to Stay

The volatility is unlikely to stop.

"It does feel like the groundwork is still there for more disorderly moves," said Bipan Rai, North American head of FX strategy at CIBC Capital Markets, who added the driver would be dollar strength which is dependent on how hawkish the U.S. Federal Reserve is in raising rates.

The U.S. dollar has dominated due to soaring U.S. interest rates, a comparatively strong American economy and demand for a haven as global financial markets have turned more turbulent this year.

That has exacerbated problems around the world.

With the yen weighed down by the ever-widening gap between the yields on U.S. and Japanese government debt, the euro hurt by worries over an energy crisis and its impact on the economy, and the pound slammed by concerns the new government's economic plan will stretch Britain's finances to the limit, dollar bulls have been quick to press their advantage.

While FX traders are no stranger to volatility, the confluence of various risks makes this moment stand out.

Unlike March 2020, the last period of heightened volatility, where policymakers were united and had largely similar responses to the pandemic, traders now are faced with central banks reacting in their own different ways as they deal with soaring inflation and currency weakness.

"In previous times it's been a macroeconomic story, but this is very much a central bank story with them all jostling over rate hikes," said Chris Huddleston, CEO at FXD Capital, who has been former FX and bonds trader for the past 20 years.

Meanwhile the dollar's continued strength bodes ill for global financial markets analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note on Monday.

"Such U.S. dollar strength has historically led to some kind of financial/economic crisis ... If there was ever a time to be on the lookout for something to break, this would be it," the analysts said.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

USD strength and rising yields hits investor demand

Given the amount of uncertainty at the moment coupled with high inflation, many in the market may have thought gold prices should be well supported. However, this has not been the case. Spot gold is trading at its lowest levels in more than two years and has fallen more than 20% from its recent peak in March, pushing it into a bear market.

The dominance of the US dollar has hit sentiment across the commodities complex and gold has not been spared in this move. The USD index has surged to a 20-year high. This strength is largely a result of the aggressive stance the US Federal Reserve has taken in terms of monetary tightening in order to fight inflation. And with inflation proving to be stickier than anticipated, the Fed is expected to be even more hawkish than originally thought for the remainder of the year. Our US economist is of the view that we will see a further 75bp hike in November and a minimum of 50bp in December, which would leave the target range at 4.25-4.5%.

Despite sticky inflation, real yields have also been climbing. 10-year real US yields have reached their highest levels in more than a decade and are firmly back in positive territory. Given the strong negative correlation between gold prices and real yields, it is not surprising to see that gold has struggled in this rising yield environment.

Higher yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, which appears to be turning investors off the yellow metal. Total known exchange-traded fund (ETF) holdings in gold have declined by almost 9% since April to stand at around 97.9m oz – levels we last saw back in January. Data from the World Gold Council shows that over August, ETF outflows amounted to 51 tonnes, which is the fourth consecutive month of net outflows. And it is pretty clear that the market is set to see further outflows in September.

Speculative positioning in COMEX gold is no better with speculators holding a net short position. The net short stands at 32,966 lots as of 20 September, which is the largest short speculators have held since late 2018. From a pure positioning point of view, speculators still have room to increase this short. Back in late 2018, the net short in COMEX gold was in excess of 100k lots.

Central banks keep adding to gold reserves

So far this year central banks have continued to increase gold reserves. During these times of uncertainty (both economic and geopolitical) and high inflation, banks appear to be turning to gold as a store of value. In addition, some central banks may have been concerned about the freezing of Russia's central bank foreign reserves following its invasion of Ukraine. This action is likely to have left some central banks uneasy, and so looking to diversify into gold. The latest numbers from the World Gold Council show that central bank holdings over 2Q22 increased by almost 180 tonnes (although still down 14% year-on-year). Whilst for July, central bank buying amounted to 37 tonnes over the month. Given the current environment is likely to persist, central banks are likely to continue to add to their gold holdings in the months ahead.

Chinese gold demand picks up

Chinese gold demand suffered earlier in the year due to the Covid-related lockdowns, particularly over 2Q22, which is when strict restrictions were in place across Shanghai and Beijing. According to WGC data, Chinese consumer demand was down 23% YoY over 1H22. However, the premium in local Chinese gold prices compared to international prices has grown more recently, suggesting that we are seeing stronger domestic demand coming through. Import data appears to back this up, with non-monetary gold imports hitting more than a four-year high in August and up 134% YoY.

Meanwhile, another key gold consumer, India, is expected to see stronger gold demand as we head towards Diwali in late October.

However, whilst we may see stronger consumer demand, it is clear that price direction is driven by investment flows. And the outlook for this is less constructive in the short term.

Eventual signs of Fed easing will lift prices

While in the short term we suspect gold prices will remain under pressure due to monetary tightening, we will need to keep an eye on signals from the Fed. Any hints of an easing in its aggressive hiking cycle should start to provide some support to gold prices. And in order for this to happen we would likely need to see some clear signs of a significant decline in inflation. We should see inflation coming off quite drastically over 2023 and this will then open the door for the Fed to start cutting rates over 2H23, our US economist believes. This differs from the Fed's dot plot, which implies higher rates as we move through 2023. However, under the assumption that we see easing over 2H23, we expect gold prices to move higher over the course of 2023.

Obviously, the key risk to this view is if inflation turns out to be even stickier than expected, which would require a longer tightening cycle from the US Fed.

In addition, the inverted yield curve will raise worries over a looming recession. And these concerns might see some investors seeking safe haven assets, such as gold. Although in the short term, rising rates will likely counter this to a certain degree.

Source: ING

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Thomas

Two months after he was assassinated, Shinzo Abe is still stirring controversy, evidence of how the polarising former premier's legacy is shaping Japanese politics on everything from defence to monetary policy.

Japan's longest-serving prime minister was a divisive figure who was dogged by scandals. The latest, involving revelations about his ruling Liberal Democratic Party's (LDP) ties to the unification church, an organisation critics call a cult, has caused an outcry over his state funeral and sent Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's approval rating to a record low.

Yet Kishida is expected to continue with several of Abe's policies, at least for now. That's a reflection of how Abe transformed both the LDP and Japan's policy landscape, experts say.

An unapologetic nationalist, Abe pushed the country toward a muscular defence posture that many now see as prescient amid growing concern about China, although he failed in his long-stated mission to change the pacifist constitution.

Abe's attempt to use massive monetary and fiscal stimulus to kick-start domestic demand also fell short, but Kishida has so far given little indication he might suddenly change those policies.

The current premier has also signalled he will stay the course on two of Abe's less controversial successes: the strengthening of corporate governance and using tourism as a growth pillar.

"I don't think we're seeing a reversion to something that came before" Abe, said Tobias Harris, a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress and the author of an Abe biography.

"If we look at the arc of his entire political career, the movement that he basically became the leader of in some ways succeeded. The way Japan is governed in 2022 is very different," from when Abe was first elected to parliament in 1993.

What remains less certain, however, is who will replace Abe as the leader of the party's large and powerful right wing. Until his death, Abe led the biggest faction, cementing his post-prime minister role as a behind-the-scenes king-maker.

Fear of alienating party hawks may have prompted Kishida, part of the LDP's more liberal wing, to push ahead with the state funeral, said Tomoaki Iwai, a professor emeritus at Nihon University and an expert on Japanese politics.

"So much has emerged about ties to the Unification Church since the assassination, and it's clear Abe was part of this problem," Iwai said. "I think this will prove a big miscalculation."

Defence Spending

The LDP has promised to double defence spending to 2% of gross domestic product over five years. That would make Japan the world's third-largest military spender behind the United States and China.

Abe, whom some voters saw as too hawkish, could never deliver that kind of increase, although his government passed legislation to allow the military to fight overseas for the first time since World War Two, and reinterpreted the war-renouncing constitution to allow Japan to acquire longer-range missiles.

Many Japanese remain wary of entanglement in U.S.-led wars, although that has been tempered by alarm about Chinese military activity around Taiwan.

Kishida has "broadly been seen as more moderate, personable and overall more trustworthy by the electorate than Abe was, which gives him greater leeway in advancing the defence agenda," said James Brady, Japan analysis lead at consultancy Teneo.

Kishida has promised to increase defence spending "substantially" but has yet to give details. Brady reckons he will stop short of doubling it, and fund the increase via taxes rather than a bond issuance, which was Abe's plan.

BOJ In Focus

Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, an Abe appointee, has come under criticism for sticking to massive monetary stimulus and ultra-low interest rates, even as other central banks around the world have increased their rates to shore up currencies in the face of a soaring dollar.

The government intervened in the currency market last week, buying yen for the first time since 1998. Kuroda's term ends in April and his dovish deputy, Masayoshi Amamiya, is seen as the most likely candidate to replace him.

That could mean more of the ultra-loose policy and fiscal stimulus set in motion under "Abenomics".

"No one seems to have an alternative to the monetary policy mix that we have," said Harris of the Center for American Progress, adding that the LDP wasn't invested in reducing deficits. "Abe kind of won the debate, even if the results have been disappointing in may ways."

Source: Reuters

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Kevin Du

In late 2021, miners were the toast of the town with a surefire path to profit: hook powerful computers up to cheap power, crack fiendishly complex maths puzzles and then sell newly minted coins on the booming market.

A year's a long time in crypto.

Global revenue from bitcoin mining has dropped to $17.2 million a day amid a crypto winter and global energy crisis, down about 72% from last November when miners were racking up $62 million a day, according to data from Blockchain.com.

"Bitcoin miners have continued to watch margins compress - the price of bitcoin has fallen, mining difficulty has risen and energy prices have soared," said Joe Burnett, head analyst at Blockware Solutions.

That's put serious pressure on some players who bought expensive mining machines, or rigs, banking on rising bitcoin prices to recoup their investment.

Bitcoin is trading at around $19,000 and has failed to break above $25,000 since August, let alone regain November's all-time high of $69,000.

At the same time, the process of solving puzzles to mine tokens has become more difficult as more miners have come online. This means they must devour more computing power, further upping operating costs, especially for those without long-term power pricing agreements.

Bitcoin miners' profit for one terahash per second of computing power has fluctuated between $0.119 and $0.070 a day since July, down from $0.45 in November last year and around its lowest levels for two years.

The grim state of affairs could be here to stay, too: Luxor's Hashrate Index, which measures mining revenue potential, has fallen almost 70% so far this year.

2140: The Last Bitcoin

It's been painful for miners.

Shares of Marathon Digital, Riot Blockchain and Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF have sunk more than 60% this year, for example, while crypto-mining data center operator Compute North filed for bankruptcy last week.

Yet mining is ultimately a long-term proposition - the last bitcoin is expected be mined in 2140, more than a century away - and some spy opportunity in the gloom.

"The best time to get in is when market's low, the same mining rigs that went for $10,000 earlier this year you can get that for 50% to 75% off right now," said William Szamosszegi, CEO of Sazmining Inc which is planning to open a renewable-energy powered bitcoin mining operation.

Indeed, many miners are cutting back on buying rigs, forcing makers to cut prices.

For instance, the popular S19J Pro rig sold for $10,100 in January on average, but now sells for $3,200, analysts at Luxor said, also noting prices for bulk orders of some mining machines had fallen by 10% in just the past week.

Chris Kline, co-founder of crypto investment platform Bitcoin IRA, said miners would have to be "hyper-focused" on energy efficiency, both to bring costs down and to avoid any repercussions from climate change-related regulations.

"From managing their balance sheet, processing units and energy costs, miners will look to stay afloat regardless of current market conditions," he added.

Source: Reuters

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Owen Li

Under a new government, Australia is shaping up to be the next big market for offshore wind developers, attracting interest from the likes of Shell, Denmark's Orsted and Norway's Equinor. But the industry, starting from scratch Down Under, faces a slew of challenges.

After more than a decade of weak climate action under conservative leaders, Anthony Albanese's new Labor government has committed to net zero emissions by 2050 - a goal that aligns with states' renewable energy goals.

To meet that target, the country will need 96 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2035, replacing coal-fired plants that are set to close, and offshore wind will have to be part of that mix, Shell's Australia chair Tony Nunan told Reuters in an interview.

Onshore wind power accounts for 10% of Australia's electricity needs but the groundwork needed for offshore farms - which are much bigger and far more productive - is only just starting to fall into place after a law setting out a framework for their development was passed late last year.

The government has, however, moved quickly to launch a process for identifying offshore zones to be opened up for licenses. The first area proposed is off Victoria state's Gippsland coast, with a final decision expected before the end of the year.

"We're at the fairly early stages and a lot has happened in the last few weeks much faster than people expected and that's attracted a lot of global attention," said Tim Sawyer, chief international officer at Flotation Energy, which has a proposed project off the Gippsland coast.

To many in the industry, Australia could well become the next boom market for offshore wind.

Equinor, for example, sees Australia as one of its top three Asia-Pacific markets for offshore wind, behind Japan and South Korea and plans to use its South Korean projects as a template for Australia, said Lars Nordli, Equinor's vice president for business development renewables Asia & Pacific.

The Hurdles

However, the sector will need new regulations and beefed-up government departments to handle licensing and approvals. It will also have to develop a supply chain as well as workers' skills for thousands of jobs in construction, operations and maintenance, industry executives said.

Projects, which typically take eight to 10 years to complete, will likely also need to overcome potential opposition from landowners concerned about transmission lines needed to hook into the grid onshore.

Community concerns about the impact of wind turbines on bird life, such as orange-bellied parrots, and sealife, such as fish and whales, are also expected.

"Each project will be assessed individually to make sure we protect our precious biodiversity while we harness our world-class offshore wind to generate clean energy," Victoria's energy minister, Lily D'Ambrosio, said in comments emailed to Reuters.

The industry must also lure suppliers of vessels, turbines and other related technology away from rapidly growing offshore wind markets in Europe and Asia - suppliers who may only come if there are several projects being developed around the same time.

"There's only a limited number of vessels in the world that can be used for erecting turbines offshore. So, you need to attract those vessels to Australian waters," said Charles Rattray, CEO of Star of the South, the country's most advanced proposed offshore wind project.

Flotation Energy sees opportunities to speed up development and cut costs by using oil and gas assets that are coming to the end of their lives in waters off Victoria, such as vessels that will be deployed for decommissioning oil and gas platforms.

"There's a lot of opportunities from a petroleum industry that's got 50 years of heritage in the region...to take part of that and evolve it into offshore wind," Sawyer said. "I'd prefer we're not taking 10 years to build a project."

Focus On Victoria State

Shell, Orsted and France's ENGIE, through its Ocean Winds venture with EDP Renewables, said they are watching the Victorian process closely.

Australia - A Land of Promise and Hurdles for Offshore Wind Developers_1

The state, which has spearheaded the country's offshore wind push, plans to procure 2 gigawatts (GW) of offshore capacity with supply due by 2032, enough to power 1.5 million homes. It is also targeting 4 GW by 2035 and 9 GW by 2040.

The 2.2 GW capacity Star of the South, on the drawing board for 10 years and now majority owned by Danish wind giant Copenhagen Infrastructure Partners, aims to be up and running in 2028.

New South Wales has also sought bids for renewable energy projects for the Illawarra region south of Sydney, attracting eight offshore wind proposals with 12.9 GW of capacity worth A$35 billion ($23 billion).

"New South Wales has got much better options. It's got much bigger electricity demand. All the coal is closing in the next 10 years, so you've got incredible grid infrastructure opening up," said Oceanex Energy CEO Andy Evans, who was a Star of the South co-founder.

Oceanex, which has lined up Equinor as a partner, hopes to start producing power off New South Wales by 2030, he said.

($1 = 1.5378 Australian dollars)

Source: Reuters

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Devin

Sterling's slide to record lows leaves it staring at parity with the dollar. Whether or not it hits the symbolic level, investors say Britain's new government has dealt such a blow to the UK's standing with markets that rebuilding confidence could take more than emergency interest rate hikes.

The pound, the most visible gauge of investors' perception of the UK, plunged to as low as $1.0327 on Monday, an 8% fall from the moment UK finance minister Kwasi Kwarteng unveiled a "mini budget" on Friday with 45 billion pounds ($48 billion) worth of unfunded tax cuts.

The prospect of more borrowing to pay for tax cuts weighted towards the wealthy and a "new era" of economic policy in which efforts to engineer economic growth appear prioritised over public finances spooked markets.

UK government bond prices cratered, sterling tumbled against an array of currencies from the euro to the Argentine peso and by Monday morning economists were calling on the Bank of England to announce a rate hike to stop the rot.

Money markets priced in UK interest rates of 5.4% by February, a 300-basis point rise from current levels that would hammer the economy. Yet the rapid rise in yields investors now receive for owning UK bonds hasn't helped sterling much.

"Once a market starts to move with this kind of momentum, it's hard to put a number on where it (sterling) will trough," said Seema Shah, chief strategist at Principal Global Investors, which manages around $500 billion in assets.

"But as an investor you take a long-term view. If you look at the UK as somewhere to invest over five years, for me that's a no."

Pummelled Pound Faces Long Road Back as Investor Confidence Shredded_1

Predicting the short-term direction of currencies is notoriously hard. Still, some such as Nomura Holdings were looking past any immediate BoE action and forecasting sterling would fall past parity with the dollar by end-November.

Parity would be a sizeable 7% move from where sterling was trading by 1800 GMT on Monday but 3% from its earlier lows.

Hedge fund manager Louis Gargour from LNG Capital, who has undisclosed positions on the pound, said it would be a "straight shot to 95-96 cents" until the government and BoE stabilised sentiment.

The BoE said late Monday the bank would not hesitate to hike rates if needed to bring inflation to target, and it was watching markets closely. Many traders had argued the bank needed to hike now.

Britain's finance ministry said Kwarteng would set a "Medium-Term Fiscal Plan" on Nov. 23, alongside growth and borrowing forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility.

No Longer Stable

Not everyone sees more pain for the pound.

In a note titled "Give GBP a chance", UBS called the reaction "knee-jerk selling" and said after a "tsunami of fast-money selling", "we must question whether the pound's prospects are truly dire from here".

Sterling's slide must also be taken in the context of a broad-based dollar surge that has seen the yen and Swedish crown down by similar amounts in 2022.

Against the euro the pound is only at two-year lows, although it is down 3% since Friday.

Pummelled Pound Faces Long Road Back as Investor Confidence Shredded_2

Crucially, investors say Prime Minister Liz Truss' government's economic shift is another reason to avoid British assets, already undermined by a decade of weak growth, the 2016 Brexit referendum and Britain's dependance on foreign investors to fund its large current account deficit.

"This is a change from the government agenda and I think that (impact) will last a while," said Bethany Payne, global bond portfolio manager at Janus Henderson Investors, calling the government "irresponsible" for announcing its policies without economic forecasts.

Pummelled Pound Faces Long Road Back as Investor Confidence Shredded_3

There are no easy options to rebuild credibility.

If the BoE is forced into hiking outside of a scheduled meeting, it could inflame the situation by emboldening traders to bet on what more it could do. If the BoE holds off on a hike, expect more wild swings.

"A central bank intervening to stabilise currencies is never a good sign," said Chris Huddleston, CEO at brokerage FXD Capital, saying he expected a BoE rate hike.

Should the government stick to its guns for more unfunded tax cuts, faith in the UK is unlikely to recover soon. A change in stance also seems unlikely, given Truss' team is confident its policies will pay for themselves medium term thanks to faster economic growth.

"People will look at the UK and think that that's not a market that is stable," said Payne at Janus Henderson.

"I don't think we'll be pariahs, but when you have volatility in the market like this, people generally step back until the dust has settled and that hasn't happened yet."