Copper Hits $12,000 for First Time As Tariff Trade Upends Market

Copper hit a fresh all-time high above $12,000 a ton as severe mine outages and trade dislocations linked to US President Donald Trump's tariff agenda put the crucial industrial metal on course for its biggest annual gain since 2009.

Prices rose as much as 0.9% to $12,031.50 a ton on the London Metal Exchange, extending a rally that has lifted prices by about 37% this year. The possibility that Trump will place tariffs on the metal has been a central factor driving prices higher, with a surge in US imports through the year thrusting manufacturers elsewhere into a bidding war to keep hold of supplies.

The impact on global trade flows has been so extreme that prices have rallied even though underlying usage has deteriorated rapidly in China, which consumes about half the world's copper. Investors often view copper as a barometer for global industrial activity, but the slowdown in China has done little to put the brakes on the rally. There's a growing expectation that prices will keep ratcheting higher as traders ship even greater volumes of copper to the US to front-run potential tariffs.

There have been severe disruptions on the supply side too, with outages at mines across the Americas, Africa and Asia prompting warnings that the market is on the cusp of a major deficit that will add further fuel to the rally. Deutsche Bank warns that output from the world's largest miners will drop 3% this year, and could fall again in 2026.

Analyst at the bank said in a note that "2025 has been a heavily disrupted year, with several large mines experiencing significant operational challenges," adding that "overall, we see the market in a clear deficit."

Supply risks have loomed large in the copper industry for years, and feature prominently in bullish forecasts from banks and investors, alongside a projected surge in usage in fast-growing sectors including electric vehicles, renewables and artificial intelligence. Citigroup has advised clients that prices could hit $15,000 in a bull-case scenario where a weakening dollar and US interest-rate cuts further boost copper's appeal, prompting investors to more aggressively pile in.

Banks and traders made similarly bold predictions as copper prices surged in the early stages of the pandemic, but that rally eventually faltered below $11,000 amid stiff resistance from buyers in China. The rally has attracted doubters this time around too, with Goldman Sachs analysts cautioning that surging prices so far have been driven by investor bets on future market tightness rather than today's supply-and-demand conditions.

Even so, copper remains its top pick in industrial metal markets, and the firm in mid December upgraded its price forecast for next year to $11,400 a ton.

Source: Bloomberg Europe