China's Solar Power to Eclipse Coal in Historic 2026 Shift

China is on track to reach a pivotal energy milestone in 2026, with projections showing its solar power capacity will surpass coal for the first time. A new report from the China Electricity Council (CEC) confirms this historic shift, underscoring a critical moment in the nation's transition to a cleaner power system.

A New Era for China's Energy Mix

By the end of this year, renewable sources are expected to dominate China's power infrastructure. The CEC forecasts that wind and solar combined will account for approximately half of the country's total installed generating capacity.

In contrast, coal's share is projected to shrink to about one-third, even as new coal plants continue to be built.

The numbers illustrate a rapid transformation:

• Total coal capacity is estimated to reach around 1,333 gigawatts (GW) by the end of 2026.

• Solar capacity, which stood at 1,200 GW at the close of 2025, has been expanding at an average of 270 GW annually over the past three years, according to data from the National Energy Administration.

Securing the Grid with Unprecedented Growth

China is forecast to add over 400 GW of new generating capacity across all energy sources in 2026, an expansion designed to keep pace with rising electricity demand. This massive buildout has been instrumental in preventing the widespread blackouts that plagued the country in 2021 and 2022.

The bulk of this new capacity will come from renewables. Wind and solar are expected to contribute a combined 300 GW of the total increase. While this figure is enormous by global standards, it represents a significant slowdown from the previous year, when solar installations alone added 315 GW.

Market Reforms Reshape the Power Landscape

The moderated pace of growth is linked to recent policy changes from Beijing. New rules are pushing renewable energy projects toward market-based pricing, a move anticipated to reduce revenue from new developments.

Simultaneously, the government has accelerated broader power market reforms. These efforts have intensified competition among different energy sources, contributing to lower electricity prices. To support the influx of renewable energy, investment in the national power grid was also raised to a record high last year to address transmission bottlenecks.