China Suspends Seafood Imports From Japan As Taiwan Row Escalates

Political

Economic

Summary:

China has suspended imports of Japanese seafood again, as the fallout over the Japanese prime minister's comments about Taiwan continues to escalate in one of worst bilateral disputes in years.

The ban was first reported by the Japanese outlets Kyodo News and NHK on Wednesday, and appeared to be confirmed by China's foreign ministry, which said there was "no market for Japanese seafood in the current climate".

The reports said China's government had informed Japan it was suspending all seafood imports, just months after it partly lifted a previous ban issued in 2023.

The original ban was imposed in response to Japan's decision to release wastewater from the damaged and decommissioned Fukushima nuclear plant. Chinese officials reportedly said Wednesday's decision was related to a need to further monitor the water source, but it has been widely received as part of China's retaliatory measures amid a deepening diplomatic row with Japan.

At a regular press briefing on Wednesday afternoon, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said Japan had "failed to provide the technical documentation it committed to".

"I would also like to emphasise that due to [Japanese] prime minister Sanae Takaichi's recent actions that go against the tide and her erroneous remarks on major issues such as Taiwan, which have triggered strong public outrage in China, there would be no market for Japanese seafood in the current climate even if Japan were able to export it to China."

Before the 2023 ban, the Chinese market – including Hong Kong – accounted for more than one-fifth of Japan's exports.

The spat started after Takaichi told her country's parliament earlier this month that Japan could become militarily involved if China attacked Taiwan, because it would be a threat to Japan's existence.

Beijing claims Taiwan is a Chinese province and has vowed to annex it, with military force if it cannot coerce or convince Taiwan to accept "reunification".

Takaichi had been asked what would trigger Japan's 2015 "collective self-defence" laws, which give exceptions for Japan's postwar ban on using force to settle international disputes.

The remarks infuriated Beijing, which has repeatedly demanded Takaichi retract her comments, accusing her of issuing a "military threat" against China, and of pursuing a "revival" of Japan's prewar militarism.

Takaichi has not withdrawn her comments, although her government has said Japan's self-defence policy has not changed. Earlier this week she sent a high-ranking foreign ministry official to Beijing for talks, but they did not appear to lower tensions.

China's foreign ministry said on Tuesday that Takaichi's remarks "caused fundamental damage to the political foundation of China-Japan relations".

The reported seafood ban comes amid a swathe of rhetorical, symbolic, and economic retaliations.

Over the weekend, China sent a coastguard fleet through the disputed waters around the Senkaku Islands and military drones past Japan's most westerly territory, Yonaguni Island, close to Taiwan's east coast.

After China issued a travel warning to tourists and students planning to visit Japan, almost a dozen airlines offered refunds to passengers and about 500,000 people were estimated to have cancelled flights. Shares in Japanese retail and tourism companies fell sharply on Monday. State-owned enterprises, including Chinese banks, have also reportedly told staff not to travel to Japan.

Japanese film releases have also been suspended and numerous cross-cultural events have been cancelled. On Tuesday, China's permanent representative to the UN, Fu Cong, told a forum that Japan was "totally unqualified" for a permanent seat on the UN security council, citing Takaichi's remarks.

Source: GUARDIAN

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Glendon

Political

Russia-Ukraine Conflict

Ten people were killed in a heavy overnight Russian missile and drone attack that struck a residential tower block in the western Ukrainian city of Ternopil, Ukrainian officials said on Wednesday.

Another 40 people were wounded in the overnight strikes on Ukraine that targeted energy and transport infrastructure, forcing emergency power cuts in a number of regions in frigid temperatures.

The upper floors of the residential building in Ternopil were torn away in the attack. Black smoke poured upwards, while an orange glow burned though the haze from a fire in the tower block.

Russia launched more than 470 drones and 48 missiles in the overnight attack, officials said. Poland, a NATO member state bordering western Ukraine, temporarily closed Rzeszow and Lublin airports in the southeast of the country and scrambled Polish and allied aircraft as a precaution to safeguard its airspace.

ZELENSKIY CALLS FOR MORE PRESSURE ON RUSSIA

All the 10 dead were in Ternopil, Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said. Twelve children were among 37 injured there, he added.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy confirmed multi-storey residential buildings had been hit in Ternopil, and said others may be trapped under the rubble.

He urged allies to increase pressure on Russia to end its nearly four-year-old war in Ukraine, including by providing Kyiv with more air-defence missiles.

"Every brazen attack against ordinary life shows that the pressure on Russia is insufficient. Effective sanctions and assistance to Ukraine can change this," he said on X.

Energy officials said energy infrastructure had been struck in seven Ukrainian regions. A Reuters witness in the western city of Lviv reported hearing explosions.

The full extent of the damage was not immediately clear but restrictions were placed on power usage for consumers across the country.

Source: Reuters

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Blue River

Forex

Economic

Technical Analysis

The GBPUSD pair is moving within the 1.3084–1.3218 range with weak recovery potential. The GBPUSD forecast for today, 19 November 2025, suggests this range could remain unchanged.

The GBPUSD pair remains stable near 1.3138. Investors are watching the budget story closely. Discover more in our analysis for 19 November 2025.

GBPUSD forecast: key trading points

Market focus: the GBPUSD pair is moving amid tense macroeconomic developments.

Current trend: the pound remains in a sideways range until major news appears.

GBPUSD forecast for 19 November 2025: 1.3084 or 1.3218.

Fundamental analysis

The GBPUSD rate is hovering around 1.3138 on Wednesday as the market follows domestic news from the UK.

The UK Treasury is preparing to increase spending on social benefits, The Telegraph reports. Chancellor Rachel Reeves plans to allocate around 6 billion GBP in additional funding in the annual budget to be presented next week. Payments for working-age citizens may rise by 3.8% from April next year. The Treasury stated that it does not comment on "budget speculation".

The backdrop remains tense: in July, the government abandoned part of the reforms aimed at reducing spending, which increased doubts about its readiness to take tough fiscal decisions. To stay within its own fiscal targets, Reeves will need to raise tens of billions of pounds.

Additional market volatility was triggered by reports that the minister abandoned the idea of increasing income tax amid an improved financial forecast. Conflicting signals around the budget undermine confidence in the government's economic policy.

The GBPUSD forecast is moderate.

GBPUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, the GBPUSD pair is hovering within a narrow sideways range near 1.3135, consolidating after a deep sell-off at the end of October. The current structure remains neutral to bearish, with no impulse for recovery and attempts to grow consistently limited by the resistance level.

Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating lower volatility and an accumulation phase. The price moves along the middle band, occasionally bouncing from the upper boundary – this reflects a lack of confident buying pressure.

The key resistance level lies at 1.3218 – the level where the pair has repeatedly reversed downwards and which remains the upper boundary of the current range. The support level lies in the 1.3084 area, from which the pair reversed upwards on 7–8 November. Holding above it preserves the baseline sideways scenario.

Source: RoboForex

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Gerik

Economic

US Leads Rare Earth Reshoring While Europe Lags Behind

Vacuumschmelze GmbH, a German firm with over a century of industrial heritage and four decades of experience in rare-earth magnet production, has issued a stark warning: Europe’s lack of urgency in building independent rare earth supply chains could lead to an economic and industrial crisis. CEO Erik Eschen, speaking after launching a new production facility in South Carolina, emphasized the strategic divide between the US and Europe.

While the US government has poured resources into companies like MP Materials Corp. and greenlit rare earth mining and processing ventures across North America and allied nations, European counterparts have taken a wait-and-see approach. Eschen accused European political and industrial leaders of passivity, relying on US or Chinese solutions rather than leading their own.

China’s Dominance and Europe’s Exposure

China’s historical control of the rare earth market estimated at over 80% of global supply has long posed a strategic risk. During the recent US-China trade war, rare earths were wielded as leverage by President Xi Jinping’s administration. Even after the trade truce, supply chain vulnerabilities remain. For Europe, and especially Germany China’s largest European customer for magnets the risk is acute.

Despite the implementation of the EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act in 2024, which aims to safeguard access to 34 strategic resources including rare earths, critics argue that the legislation lacks the financial backing and political momentum needed to be effective. Without decisive investment in domestic capabilities, Europe could become increasingly marginalized in the next phase of industrial competition.

Industrial Capacity Expanding Rapidly in the US

Vacuumschmelze’s South Carolina facility, now operational, will initially produce 2,000 tons of magnets annually, with plans to reach 12,000 tons over the next few years. It is one of several US-based efforts to reshore magnet and materials production. Neighboring North Carolina will soon host Vulcan Elements Inc.’s $1 billion magnet plant the largest outside China.

This proactive stance contrasts sharply with Europe’s fragmented response. Eschen warned that technical expertise is already beginning to migrate to North America and Australia, where government and private-sector funding is more readily available. If the trend continues, Europe risks not only losing access to raw materials but also the critical knowledge base to process them competitively.

Delayed Response May Prove Costly

European industries that delay securing non-Chinese supply lines may find themselves at the back of the queue when demand spikes. Eschen cautioned that customers waiting to source from Vacuumschmelze’s new plant may face delays of 12 to 24 months due to limited initial capacity. While some defense-related firms are diversifying now, many commercial clients remain complacent.

The broader concern is not just about sourcing but about strategic resilience. With rare-earth magnets essential in electric vehicles, wind turbines, robotics, and advanced electronics, disruptions could stall Europe's energy transition and digital economy goals.

Vacuumschmelze’s public criticism signals more than a corporate grievance it’s a warning to European leaders that geopolitical realities require strategic foresight. As the US accelerates supply chain independence and nations like Australia and Brazil grow their rare earth industries, Europe must urgently align funding, industrial policy, and private sector engagement to avoid becoming dependent, vulnerable, and technologically obsolete.

Source: Bloomberg

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Market Overview: Gold Strengthens Despite Equity Weakness

Gold rose by as much as 0.7% on Wednesday, continuing its rebound from a three-day decline. The rise comes amid falling global equities and heightened market volatility, particularly as investors brace for Nvidia’s earnings and further clarity from the Federal Reserve’s upcoming minutes. Despite recent dips, gold remains up nearly 55% year-to-date its strongest annual performance since 1979 and is widely expected to continue climbing into 2026.

Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank noted that leveraged traders who were forced to sell in volatile conditions are increasingly being replaced by long-term investors and central banks. This transition, he suggested, is “building the foundation” for another gold rally in 2026.

Investor Sentiment and Central Bank Demand

A Bank of America survey shows gold is expected to deliver the second-highest returns in 2026, just behind the Japanese yen. Strong central bank demand has bolstered bullion this year, as global investors hedge against debt default risks and currency devaluation especially amid growing concerns over sovereign debt in developed markets.

Despite brief pressure from equity-linked selling, the steady absorption of supply by institutional players has kept gold resilient. According to market analysts, the fundamental demand drivers for gold remain robust, including macro uncertainty, geopolitical instability, and liquidity shifts.

Fed Policy in Focus: Minutes and Data Vacuum

Investor attention is sharply focused on the upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's October meeting minutes. These are expected to shed light on the timeline for interest rate adjustments and potential liquidity injections via reserve management purchases. With the longest US government shutdown having disrupted the flow of economic data, the Fed minutes could provide essential clarity on policy direction.

At the same time, the September jobs report delayed by the shutdown is due Thursday and will offer a partial snapshot of labor market health. Meanwhile, expectations for a December rate cut have waned slightly, with swaps now showing only a 50% probability, down from near certainty just weeks ago.

Gold Poised for Continued Strength

As of Wednesday afternoon in Singapore, gold was trading at $4,092.30/oz. Other precious metals such as silver, palladium, and platinum also posted gains, while the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index remained flat.

Despite recent market turbulence, gold’s performance reflects strong underlying demand and cautious optimism for 2026. With central banks maintaining robust buying patterns and investors increasingly viewing gold as a safe-haven alternative amid mixed monetary policy signals, the metal remains a key asset to watch in the year ahead.

Source: Bloomberg

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Justin

Forex

Stocks

The day has come, ladies and gentlemen. The biggest — and for some, the most important — company in the world, Nvidia Corporation, is about to reveal its earnings. My crystal ball is whispering that today, after the US closing bell, Nvidia will probably dump another set of jaw-dropping numbers on the table — perhaps a few more billions in sales revenue than the ~$55 billion expected by analysts (which would already be a nearly 60% growth compared to the same time last year) and a gross margin of ideally more than 73%.

The company will likely give another stellar guidance and remind everyone that China — once their VIP client — doesn't even matter in their forecast as much as it did before. CEO Jensen Huang wants investors to assume that the Chinese revenue will be zero. Anything on top of that would be the cherry on top.

But what my crystal ball doesn't tell is how investors will react. Everyone is now focused on the worries that the huge spending its too high compared to revenue potential, and on the rising anxiety around the circularity of AI deals. Another one just dropped yesterday between Nvidia, Microsoft and Anthropic. The former two will invest a combined $15bn into Anthropic, and the latter will buy computing power from Microsoft's Azure that – in turn – will be powered by Nvidia chips.

Told like this, the whole AI thing does sound like nothing more than a handful of companies sending each other billions of dollars without hints of money flowing inside the circle from outside. But it's like Mc Donalds buying beef and tomatoes for its burgers. It must do it. Eventually someone will buy the burger. But when, and how much burger is to be seen.

Add to that the fact that Japanese yields are now at levels where Japanese investors prefer bringing their money back to Japan. The 10-year Japanese government bond yield surpassed levels where borrowing yen and placing it in US Treasuries makes no money— after taking FX hedging costs into account. As a result, the Japanese pensions funds are reportedly pulling $1.1 trillion out of the US Treasuries right now – meaning that one of the biggest Treasury buyers is turning into a net seller.

In plain English, the Japs may be pulling the rug from under the US Treasury market – that also affects riskier investments like tech, EM stocks and crypto. So maybe we will simply blame the Japanese if the Bank of Japan BoJ) dares hiking rates come December… and that Santa remains stuck somewhere where there's still snow this Xmas.

But on a more optimistic note, I don't think the BoJ will gather enough courage to move rates higher. Provided the stress in JGBs, the BoJ Team certainly sees that a rate hike could trigger a budget-crisis scenario akin to what we saw with Liz Truss in the UK. And a severe earthquake in the JGB markets would then trigger a tsunami across global financial markets.

So, if markets don't turn risk-on after Jensen Huang pushes the 'on' button tonight, it may be time for a 10-20% correction. And of course, some love adding fuel to the fire saying that current Big Tech valuations are based on a US 10-year yield of around 2% — continuously — and so if someone comes out and says 'the emperor is naked' and the new 10-year benchmark is say nearer 3.5%, valuations could take a 30-40% hit. It's simple math: many favourite tech stocks trade 25-35 times their earnings. A readjustment of the discount rate could compress them to 18-22 times. So, either your price falls 30-40% or earnings grow strong enough to counteract the higher discount rate. But it's not that simple.

A month ago — when AI deals were flying in the air — your average tech investor would rather see earnings grow fast enough to neutralise the impact of higher US yields. Today, all they worry about is rising debt. And debt smells worse when borrowing costs mount… The mounting anxiety is pushing credit default spreads to levels some compare to banks just before the sub-prime crisis — with CoreWeave, Tesla, Inc. and Oracle Corporation occupying the top positions in the list of companies most expensive to hedge against default in the next half-decade.

But it's crazy we went from "AI is everything we always dreamed of" to "this is a worthless bubble" and "screw you OpenAI." But I can tell you: when an outage at Cloudflare disrupted OpenAI yesterday, and my ChatGPT gave a message saying that I should 'unblock challenges.cloudflare.com to proceed,' I didn't know where to go, what to do, who to ask — a small reminder that when ChatGPT is now around, it doesn't feel the same.

So, reason tells me there should be a midway between these two extremes — relentless rally and that 30-40% meltdown. Nvidia and other chip companies will certainly continue to sell their chips and grow their fortune; tech companies will continue to develop their AI models, rent data-centres and sell their products to companies outside the tech buddies— say healthcare, banks, hairdressers, tax-offices, McDonalds and anything you could think of. Some will fail. Others will survive. And those who survive will eventually see revenue flow in. Someone will buy the burger.

As for spending, it will level out when the first booming phase is over. Maybe there will be a financial crisis before we get to the safer side of the bridge, but eventually the world will survive. If not, robots will come to the rescue. And while this happens, central banks will be there to temper any potential crisis and print money.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

Economic

Incentivizing Long-Term Stock Participation

In a press meeting on Wednesday, South Korean Finance Minister Koo Yun-cheol revealed plans to roll out incentives aimed at small investors who commit to long-term participation in the local capital markets. This move seeks to address the short-term trading mentality that has dominated retail investment, especially during periods of volatility driven by external macroeconomic forces. The initiative would likely involve tax benefits or other regulatory support to encourage stability and depth in the domestic equity market.

In parallel with investment incentives, Koo emphasized the government’s commitment to stabilizing the foreign exchange market, which has faced pressure from global interest rate fluctuations and uneven capital flows. The South Korean won, like other regional currencies, has experienced volatility in recent months, prompting officials to engage more actively with market participants to contain speculation and reduce uncertainty.

One specific concern raised by the minister involves large exporters who are not promptly repatriating U.S. dollar revenues earned abroad. This behavior has the effect of tightening local dollar liquidity and may exacerbate currency depreciation. While no punitive measures were announced, Koo’s public statement serves as a soft warning and a call for corporate responsibility in supporting macroeconomic stability.

Pressure on Pension and Corporate Investment Abroad

Koo also acknowledged the growing outbound investment activities of South Korea’s National Pension Service, one of the world’s largest pension funds. As it increases overseas allocations, the demand for foreign currency rises, which can add further pressure to the won. Although the minister has not yet held direct talks with the pension authority, his remarks signal future discussions about balancing overseas investment with currency risk management.

In a notable remark, Koo pointed out that while the government is using taxpayer money to negotiate trade advantages such as reduced tariffs under the $350 billion U.S. trade deal it expects reciprocation from corporations, particularly in aligning their behavior with national economic priorities.

South Korea’s dual approach of market incentives and policy engagement reflects a broader strategy to strengthen the resilience of its financial system. As global uncertainty persists, aligning investor behavior, corporate capital flows, and public investment strategies will be key to maintaining both market confidence and currency stability.