Central Bank Rate Decisions in The Spotlight

In focus today

Today we receive rate decisions from the Bank of England (BoE), the Swiss National Bank (SNB) and the Riksbank.

We expect the BoE will keep the Bank Rate unchanged at 4.50% in line with consensus and market pricing. Additionally, we anticipate the BoE will stick to its previous guidance noting that “a gradual approach to removing monetary policy restraint remains appropriate”.

For the SNB, we expect they will cut the policy rate by 25bp to 0.25% as inflation pressures remain muted, hovering in the lower end of the target range. Markets also favour a cut, pricing in roughly 20bp for the meeting.

We think the Riksbank will stay on hold at 2.25% and present a completely flat rate path, which is widely expected. However, we believe the risk is more likely to lean towards a dovish surprise rather than a hawkish one, considering that market pricing is slightly inclined towards the next move being a rate hike.

Norges Bank will release the Regional Survey today. We will keep an eye on the growth prospects for both Q1 and Q2. Based on leading indicators, we expect the expectations to be around 0.3-0.4% q/q, which should be well in line with Norges Bank’s forecast from the December MPR. But we will put more emphasis on the capacity metrics this time around, as they are paramount for the inflation and hence rate outlook in the medium turn. This could prove decisive ahead of the monetary policy meeting next week after the latest inflation numbers.

Economic and market news

What happened overnight

In China, the People’s Bank of China kept Loan Prime Rate 1Y and 5Y steady at 3.10% and 3.60% respectively. This was widely anticipated by markets and the market reaction was muted. Economic data on the Chinese economy at the start of the year was a mixed bag.

What happened yesterday

In the US, the FOMC meeting in the evening concluded with an unchanged rate decision from the Fed as widely expected. Powell sent a message as balanced as it could be. Not downplaying any downside risks but also emphasising that the Fed is not in a hurry to move. Markets reacted with lower rates, weaker USD and stronger equities. We maintain our call for the next cut in June, and a total of three cuts this year. Read more in our Fed review: Cautious stability, 19 March.

In Ukraine, the call between President Zelenskiy and President Trump was spent aligning both Russia and Ukraine in terms of their requests. We see the latest developments, namely the outcome from the Zelenskyi-Trump call yesterday, as positive for Ukraine, and for the broader long-term security in Europe. The White House is now saying their focus has shifted from the minerals deal to discussing the long-term peace deal. The limited ceasefire now seems possible in our view, but the road to a sustainable peace is still a long and rocky one, not least because there is no consensus on any credible security guarantees for Ukraine.

Equities: Global equities ended higher yesterday, with the US leading advances, closing near the day’s high and interpreting the Fed’s message rather positively. With the VIX ticking lower, cyclicals outperforming alongside small caps, and positive stories surrounding the MAG 7, we are likely seeing more US retail investors engaging in the buy-the-dip strategy.

In Europe, there was a slight “sell the fact” movement, with Germany lagging behind after its stellar performance, where the DAX is up 17% year-to-date. In the US yesterday: Dow +0.9%, S&P 500 +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.4%, Russell 2000 +1.6%.

Asian markets are split this morning, with both China and Japan being lower, while most other markets are higher.

European futures are unchanged (DAX slightly lower), while US futures are higher, led by the tech sector, not least due to the ambitious investment stories circulating around Nvidia.

FI&FX: This week’s bunch of central bank decisions kicked off with the BoJ and the Fed yesterday – both held interest rates unchanged. USD/JPY did not move on the BoJ decision but fell below 149 after US interest rates dropped in response to the slight dovish signals from the Fed. EUR/USD was steady around the 1.09 level. EUR/SEK rose above the 11.00 level again ahead of the Riksbank rate decision today.

Source: ACTIONFOREX