Calling All Short-Term Traders - The FastBull 2025 CFD Trading Contest S1 Is Now Open!

Summary:

Join for free. The more you profit, the bigger the rewards. From July 8 to July 22, 2025, FastBull, together with BeeMarkets, is hosting the 2025 CFD Trading Contest S1. The top 10 traders will win funded live trading accounts worth between $100 and $5,000. Profits are fully withdrawable, and the initial capital can also be unlocked after meeting the trading volume requirement.

Calling All Short-Term Traders - The FastBull 2025 CFD Trading Contest S1 Is Now Open!_1

Prize Pool

1st: $5,000

2nd: $4,000

3rd: $3,000

4th: $2,500

5th: $2,000

6th: 1,500 USD

7th: 1,000 USD

8th: 600 USD

9th: 300 USD

10th: 100 USD

Trading Rules

Starting balance: $100,000

Leverage: 1:400

Tradable pairs: AUDUSD, EURUSD, GBPUSD, NZDUSD, USDCAD, USDCHF, USDJPY, XAUUSD

Lot size per trade: 0.01 to 1.00, with up to 10 open positions allowed

A minimum of 50 valid market orders required (each held for at least 60 seconds)

Platforms Supported

FastBull Web

FastBull App

FastBull PC

BeeMarkets App

What's Not Allowed

No automated or algorithmic trading

No multi-account registrations

No exploiting technical loopholes or abusive trading strategies

Key Dates

Registration: June 25 - July 8, 2025 (UTC)

Competition: July 8 - July 22, 2025 (UTC)

How to Join

When the contest starts, go to https://www.fastbull.com/en/traders/chart, select your contest account, and start trading. You can also trade directly through the FastBull App.

For full contest rules, visit: https://www.fastbull.com/trading-contest/rules/9?contest=pro

Sign up today and prove your trading edge. This is your chance to trade for real rewards.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

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Gerik

Economic

Japan Emerges as Asia’s M&A Growth Engine in 2025

Japan has taken the lead in revitalizing Asia’s mergers and acquisitions landscape, accounting for a substantial portion of the region’s $650 billion in deal value during the first half of 2025. The record-breaking $232 billion in Japanese-related M&A reflects a powerful convergence of domestic reform momentum and international investment strategy, according to LSEG data. This performance represents more than a threefold year-on-year increase for Japan and has significantly boosted Asia’s comparative deal flow.

Management reforms targeting undervaluation and governance inefficiencies among Japanese companies have made domestic firms more attractive to foreign investors and activist shareholders. Japan’s persistently low interest rate environment continues to support leveraged buyouts and strategic consolidations. Analysts and bankers anticipate sustained momentum in the second half, particularly through take-private deals and cross-border acquisitions.

Landmark Transactions Highlight Strategic Shifts

A wave of privatization deals and carve-outs has underscored Japan’s commitment to corporate restructuring. Toyota Motor Group and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone spearheaded some of the largest global take-private transactions in 2025, with combined values of $51.1 billion. These deals reflect the growing pressure on listed conglomerates to streamline operations and focus on core competencies, often through divestments or internal consolidation.

In March, Seven & I Holdings sold several non-core superstore units to Bain Capital for approximately $5.5 billion, reinforcing a broader trend of asset realignment. These transactions align with government calls for improved capital efficiency and resource reallocation in the corporate sector.

Outbound Investment Remains Robust Amid Domestic Pressures

Japanese companies continue to pursue international expansion as a hedge against domestic demographic decline. Major players such as Nomura Holdings and Dai-ichi Life have announced large-scale deals abroad, seeking growth in foreign financial markets and sectors aligned with Japan’s industrial strengths.

This outbound ambition remains strong despite geopolitical headwinds. While debates over tariffs and global conflicts have delayed some decision-making, overall investor appetite has not diminished, noted Kei Nitta, global head of M&A at Nomura Securities.

Japan’s resilience to global volatility has also contributed to its appeal as a stable M&A destination. Unlike more politically exposed markets, Japan’s policy environment and corporate governance reforms offer predictability for foreign capital. Moreover, global supply chain recalibration has re-elevated Japan as both a partner and a target, drawing interest from companies looking to rebalance their geographic footprint.

Private Equity and Carve-Outs Set to Shape Deal Pipeline

Private equity funds have become dominant players in Japan’s M&A space, particularly as sellers seek to divest non-core assets. Bain Capital, EQT, and other global funds are actively exploring opportunities to take listed firms private or acquire business units undergoing divestment.

One of the most anticipated transactions in the second half of 2025 is a potential buyout of cybersecurity firm Trend Micro, valued at ¥1.32 trillion ($8.54 billion). Analysts say such deals are part of a strong pipeline, especially as firms respond to investor pressure to streamline balance sheets and unlock shareholder value.

Yusuke Ishimaru of SMBC Nikko Securities emphasized that carve-outs will remain prevalent, driven by both strategic repositioning and buyout fund interest in platform-building opportunities.

Valuation Gaps and Global Risks Remain Key Challenges

Despite the surge in deal volume, not all transactions are closing successfully. Atsushi Tatsuguchi of Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities warned that valuation mismatches between buyers and sellers, exacerbated by uncertainty over future earnings, are leading to an increasing number of failed negotiations.

Global economic ambiguity—ranging from inflation volatility to regional security tensions—complicates long-term projections, affecting due diligence and pricing confidence. Nonetheless, the overall deal environment remains buoyant, supported by reform-driven domestic activity and a still-favorable financing climate.

Japan’s record-breaking M&A performance in 2025 reflects more than opportunistic activity—it is rooted in structural shifts toward corporate transparency, strategic reorganization, and global integration. While global uncertainties may continue to influence timing and valuations, the appetite for deals—particularly from private equity and multinational strategics—remains robust. As Japan modernizes its corporate governance and navigates its demographic challenges, its capital markets are becoming increasingly central to Asia’s investment story.

Source: Reuters

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Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Isaac Bennett

Where are we now in the US?

Comparison With Other Categories

One caveat on what seemingly is our current stagflation environment is the impact of AI, especially in tech and certain white-collar roles.

For example, Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) & Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT): Both have announced mass layoffs in 2025, citing their aggressive shift to AI as a primary driver. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy explicitly stated that AI will “eventually replace” some corporate roles, prompting layoffs and hiring freezes.

The Long-Term Transition: Adoption of AI doesn’t eliminate all jobs—some jobs are redefined, new ones created—and rehiring can follow initial cuts.

So, let’s go with stagflation (with the caveat) and offer you actionable investment plans.

The top chart of the Dow shows the trading range DJIA remained in until 1982 post Volcker squashing inflation, followed by the brief recession, and then the ensuing economic growth.

This chart here is of oil in the 1970s. It did not go straight up. Rather, after the Yom Kippur war, oil dropped and then started in the mid-decade, to rise again.

From Monday’s Daily I wrote about the long bonds and what happens if we do not have an oil shock like the one you see we had in the 1970s.

But what if we do?

The FED is a big player here on what happens next.

Will the Fed cut rates? Stay the course? Raise? Doubtful they raise. Maybe they will cut. But if they stay the course, will an oil shock impact monetary policy much?

So far, we are witnessing the potential for higher oil and lower yields, but we shall see.

Meanwhile, back to the 1970s.

Gold was the single best-performing asset class of the 1970s.

Silver and other precious metals also posted huge returns as investors sought inflation hedges.

Defensive sectors like consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities outperformed as investors favored companies with pricing power that could maintain profit margins even with high inflation.

XConsumer discretionary stocks, as economically sensitive areas like autos and housing were hit by the combination of high inflation and slow growth.

Technology and growth stocks broadly underperformed as soaring inflation and interest rates compressed their rich valuations.

However, currently, we are seeing tech and growth well outperforming, so unless we see a rate hike or inflation growing substantially, these sectors might hold in a range until valuations become too rich.

In 2025, while we can still make a case for disinflation (good for growth), we must carefully watch the similarities to the 1970s.

If this is disinflation, then the prices falling but still high can indicate successful inflation control.

And that’s the rub.

The market is dancing between disinflation and stagflation.

Hence, we will continue to watch:

● Oil

● Gold to Silver Ratio

● Sugar prices

● Tech stocks (NVDA)

● Dollar

● Long bonds

Source: Investing

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Government Targets Informal Digital Sellers with Upcoming Regulation

Indonesia's Directorate General of Taxes has confirmed it is drafting a regulation that will shift tax collection responsibilities to e-commerce platforms. The proposed rule mandates platforms like Tokopedia, Shopee, Lazada, and TikTok Shop to withhold 0.5% of sellers' sales income and transfer the funds to the tax authorities. This marks a significant regulatory step aimed at addressing the growing "shadow economy" in Indonesia’s digital marketplace, where many small vendors operate without proper tax registration or contribution.

While the final details and timeline remain undisclosed, sources told Reuters the policy could come into effect as early as next month. The government emphasized that it has consulted with stakeholders and received preliminary support, although technical and operational challenges have been raised, particularly from platform operators and industry bodies.

Platforms Express Concern Over Implementation Pace

E-commerce giants, particularly TikTok Shop and its subsidiary Tokopedia, have warned that the directive’s impact could be disruptive if not phased in carefully. Tokopedia, with roughly 12 million sellers and transaction volumes exceeding IDR 249 trillion (USD 15.3 billion) in 2023, represents a substantial segment of the market. ByteDance, which owns both TikTok Shop and Tokopedia, stated that while it supports the regulation’s objectives, it requires adequate preparation time to adapt infrastructure and educate sellers—especially micro and small businesses—on compliance expectations.

Indonesia’s E-Commerce Association (idEA) also voiced its willingness to comply but emphasized the importance of a gradual rollout to ensure operational feasibility and minimize business disruption.

Scope and Enforcement: Ensuring Compliance Across Platforms

The regulation will apply broadly to Indonesia’s major digital marketplaces, including Shopee (Sea Ltd.), Lazada (Alibaba), Blibli, Bukalapak, and TikTok Shop. The tax office noted that penalties for non-compliance or late reporting may be introduced, although specifics are still being developed. This enforcement mechanism aims to ensure not only effective tax collection but also standardization across platforms in monitoring seller activity and reporting revenue.

The tax office clarified that the goal is not to burden e-commerce but to formalize previously unregistered transactions and simplify tax filing processes for small sellers. The 0.5% levy is designed to be low enough to minimize strain on micro-enterprises, while also increasing fiscal transparency.

Shadow Economy Pressures and Economic Context

Indonesia’s rapidly growing digital economy is a key driver behind the tax office’s new strategy. The country's e-commerce gross merchandise value (GMV) was estimated at USD 65 billion in 2023 and is projected to reach USD 150 billion by 2030, according to a joint report by Google, Temasek, and Bain & Co. However, a large proportion of this growth occurs outside the formal tax net, posing challenges for government revenue collection and fiscal sustainability.

By leveraging platforms as tax intermediaries, the government aims to strengthen oversight of millions of fragmented, digitally native micro-entrepreneurs who may not engage with traditional tax channels. The initiative reflects broader global trends in taxing digital economies, where governments seek to close gaps between economic activity and declared taxable income.

Indonesia’s upcoming e-commerce tax regulation reflects a clear intent to expand tax compliance and close structural gaps in revenue collection. While the move is aligned with long-term goals of fiscal inclusion and market transparency, its success will depend on how well the transition is managed. Ensuring that platforms are technically prepared and sellers adequately informed will be critical. As Indonesia embraces digital-led growth, creating a supportive regulatory environment that fosters formalization without stifling innovation remains the central challenge.

Source: Reuters

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Blue River

Economic

Forex

Technical Analysis

Dollar weakness deepened in Asian session, with the greenback falling to multi-year lows against both Euro and Sterling. For now, downside pressure remains concentrated against European majors. The latest catalyst is a show of fiscal resolve from NATO allies, who agreed to more than double their defense spending target to 5% of GDP by 2035, seen as a long-term fiscal and industrial boost to Europe’s economy and security posture.

The NATO decision breaks down into 3.5% spending on traditional military capabilities and 1.5% on broader resilience like cyber and infrastructure. While symbolic in the short term, the commitment highlights the region’s renewed strategic coherence and investment direction—drawing investor confidence at a time when the US outlook is clouded by trade policy and inflation uncertainty.

Meanwhile, Dollar has now fully reversed its recent safe-haven gains after last week’s escalation in the Middle East. With the Israel-Iran ceasefire holding, even amid minor violations, markets are turning back to broader US vulnerabilities, especially fiscal risks, tariffs, and the greenback’s trustworthiness as a haven asset.

Monetary policy divergence is also weighing on Dollar. While ECB may be near the end of its cycle, Fed is still expected to resume cuts later this year. Markets are increasingly convinced that a September cut is likely. And after all, Fed’s latest dot plot reflects two cuts this year, with the 2025 median rate at 3.9%,

In the currency markets, Dollar is back as the worst performer of the week, followed by the Loonie and Yen. European currencies are clearly benefiting, with Sterling leading gains, followed by Swiss franc and Euro. Aussie and Kiwi are stuck in the middle.

Technically, EUR/CAD’s strong break of 1.5959 resistance this week confirms long term up trend resistance. Based on current momentum, there shouldn’t be much difficulty in breaking through 1.6151 long term resistance (2018 higher). Next near term target is 61.8% orojection of 1.4483 to 1.5959 from 1.5598 at 1.6510.

In Asia, at the time of writing, Nikkei is up 1.49%. Hong Kong HSI is down -0.65%. China Shanghai SSE is up 0.10%. Singapore Strait Times is up 0.11%. Japan 10-year JGB yield is up 0.014 at 1.418. Overnight, DOW fell -0.25%. S&P 500 fell -0.00%. NASDAQ rose 0.31%. 10-year yield closed flat at 4.293.

Fed’s Powell: No modern precedent for Trump’s tariff, must proceed carefully

Fed Chair Jerome Powell defended the central bank’s cautious stance on interest rates during day two of his Congressional testimony, citing significant uncertainty around the inflationary impact of tariffs. While Powell acknowledged tariff-driven price hikes could ultimately be transitory, he said Fed must prepare for the possibility that inflation proves more persistent. “As the people who are supposed to keep stable prices, we need to manage that risk,” Powell emphasized.

Powell emphasized that the Fed is operating in largely uncharted territory, warning that the magnitude of potential new tariffs dwarfs those imposed during Trump’s first term, and those earlier measures came when inflation was subdued. “There is not a modern precedent,” he said, cautioning against prematurely adjusting policy without a clearer picture of the economic impact.

“If it comes in quickly and it is over and done, then yes, very likely it is a one-time thing,” he said of tariff inflation. But if the Fed misjudges the situation, “people will pay the cost for a long time.”

GBP/USD Daily Outlook

GBP/USD’s rally continues today and intraday bias stays on the upside. Current rise from 1.2099 should target 100% projection of 1.2099 to 1.3206 from 1.3138 at 1.3813 next. On the downside, below 1.3589 minor support will turn intraday bias neutral and bring consolidations. But downside should be contained above 1.3369 support to bring another rally.

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.3051 (2022 low) is in progress. Next medium term target is 61.8% projection of 1.0351 to 1.3433 from 1.2099 at 1.4004. Outlook will now stay bullish as long as 55 W EMA (now at 1.2948) holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Source: ACTIONFOREX

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Gerik

Economic

Investor Sentiment Wavers After Prolonged Optimism

In the week ending June 21, foreign investors sold a net ¥524.3 billion (USD 3.62 billion) in Japanese equities, marking their first week of net divestment since March 29. This shift came after 11 consecutive weeks of sustained inflows, underlining a change in sentiment as external uncertainties intensify.

The reversal was prompted by renewed tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Israel and Iran, which raised concerns about Japan’s energy security given its reliance on imported oil. Investors are increasingly pricing in the risk that energy price shocks could translate into broader inflationary pressures, eroding corporate margins and consumer purchasing power.

Rising Inflation Adds Pressure on Central Bank Policy

Japan’s core inflation rate reached a two-year high in May, adding complexity to the Bank of Japan’s policy trajectory. While the central bank has so far adopted a cautious stance on interest rate normalization, the inflation trend now puts pressure on policymakers to resume tightening sooner than expected. This introduces additional uncertainty for equity markets, as higher rates could weigh on valuations and corporate borrowing costs.

Although the recent week saw net outflows, foreign investors still injected approximately ¥6.81 trillion into Japanese stocks in the current quarter, the highest quarterly total in two years. This suggests that the broader investment thesis on Japan—driven by favorable corporate reforms and a weak yen—remains intact despite short-term caution.

Bond Market Activity Reflects Diverging Risk Preferences

Foreign demand for Japanese long-term government bonds also declined, with net outflows of ¥368.8 billion last week. This follows three consecutive weeks of net purchases and may indicate broader risk aversion linked to expectations of rising yields or shifting global rate differentials.

However, short-term Japanese bills remained attractive, with foreigners purchasing ¥1.5 trillion—the most in nine weeks. This preference for shorter-duration assets signals a defensive positioning, where investors seek liquidity and lower duration risk while maintaining exposure to Japanese fixed income.

Japanese Investors Shift Toward Global Bonds

Meanwhile, Japanese participants continued their sixth straight week of foreign equity selling, offloading ¥88.2 billion worth of overseas stocks. Their risk aversion in equity markets appears to be paired with a growing appetite for foreign bonds. Japanese investors purchased ¥615.5 billion in long-term foreign bonds last week, adding to the prior week’s ¥1.57 trillion net buying. This sustained demand suggests confidence in overseas fixed income returns, possibly due to yield differentials and relative currency stability.

While geopolitical risks and inflation concerns triggered a temporary retreat from Japanese equities, the underlying foreign interest remains strong, as reflected in quarterly inflows. The simultaneous movement toward short-term debt and foreign bonds reveals a preference for safe-haven and yield-enhancing strategies in a period of policy uncertainty. The direction of Japan’s inflation trajectory and central bank signaling will be critical in determining whether the latest outflows are a short-lived adjustment or the beginning of a broader reassessment.

Source: Reuters

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Gerik

Economic

China–U.S. Trade War

Shifting Trade Routes as Tariff Pressures Persist

With U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods still reaching up to 55 percent despite temporary relief measures under the Trump-era agreement, Chinese exporters are accelerating their realignment strategies. The latest data signals a pronounced pivot: UK imports from China surged to GBP 6 billion in April 2025, an 11 percent increase year-on-year, marking the highest level in over two years. China’s own export figures to the UK in May also hit a peak unseen since mid-2022, illustrating a consistent redirection of trade away from the United States.

At the forefront of this trend are fast-fashion and discount e-commerce platforms like Shein and Temu. By May 2025, these platforms had recorded a 66 percent year-on-year growth in the UK market, with their combined shipment value nearing USD 2 billion. This surge reflects the strength of China’s model of mass production, agile logistics, and tailored consumer appeal. The strategy relies on micro-sized, low-cost packages that bypass traditional trade structures and cater directly to individual buyers, especially within the EU’s and UK’s growing online marketplaces.

Technology Sector Follows the Momentum

Beyond fashion and consumer goods, China’s tech exports to the UK are rising sharply. Smartphone shipments increased by 26 percent, while computers climbed by 11 percent in the first five months of 2025. In contrast, exports to the United States in these categories fell by 18 percent over the same period. This differential highlights not only the deterrent effect of U.S. tariffs but also the receptiveness of the UK market to affordable Chinese technology products.

British authorities are taking note of this rapid influx. While lower-cost imports can ease inflationary pressures—especially amid a volatile global economic environment—concerns are mounting about the long-term competitiveness of domestic producers. UK Business Secretary Jonathan Reynolds confirmed that the government is monitoring for potential dumping practices, particularly in price-sensitive sectors such as steel and aluminum. Measures may be taken if evidence of below-cost pricing emerges.

The Bank of England, meanwhile, is closely watching how rising imports of cheap goods could influence its monetary policy stance. If sustained, this shift could offer central bankers a deflationary tailwind, potentially influencing interest rate paths later in the year.

Trade Diversification and Strategic Timing

While China accelerates its presence in the UK and broader EU markets, it has not abandoned the U.S. entirely. In fact, exporters are reportedly ramping up shipments to American ports—including Los Angeles and Long Beach—before a temporary truce on tariffs expires on August 12. Tracking data from the Marine Exchange of Southern California confirms a renewed wave of Chinese cargo activity in early summer, reflecting strategic stockpiling ahead of possible tariff

The adaptability of China’s export system remains one of its core competitive advantages. Whether navigating U.S. protectionism or entering new markets, Chinese firms demonstrate an ability to adjust supply chains, exploit logistics routes, and cater to diverse consumer behaviors. Their formula—low cost, high speed, and market-specific customization—continues to yield commercial leverage in nearly any geopolitical environment.

The ongoing reconfiguration of Chinese trade flows underscores a broader evolution in global commerce. While tariffs have reshaped traditional U.S.-China trade, they have not diminished China’s global export power. Instead, they have redirected it. As Chinese firms increasingly court the UK and Europe, governments and businesses alike must assess the dual-edged implications of cheap, fast imports—economic relief on one hand, competitive strain on the other. Whether this shift becomes structural or merely tactical may depend on the next wave of trade policy decisions on both sides of the Atlantic.