Bitcoin Stuck In Bear Mode For 83 Days: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness

US Democratic Senators working on crypto market structure legislation filed several amendments on Friday, including measures to address conflicts of interest with US officials profiting from the crypto industry.

The ethics-focused amendments were filed ahead of the Senate Agriculture Committee’s markup for the crypto market structure legislation this Tuesday, which seeks to give greater clarity on federal rules for digital assets, define agency oversight, and bring regulatory certainty to investors and market participants.

One of the most notable amendments was Senator Michael Bennet’s purported inclusion of the Digital Asset Ethics Act into the crypto market structure legislation to prevent US officials from profiting from the crypto industry.

US Senator Elizabeth Warren and other Democrats have been raising concerns about President Donald Trump’s alleged conflicts of interest with the crypto industry, including his involvement in the World Liberty Financial crypto platform, which has increased his net worth by hundreds of millions of dollars.

CFTC should fill vacant seats before bill takes effect

Another amendment from Democrat Senator Amy Klobuchar seeks to delay the bill’s implementation until the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has a full set of commissioners.

The CFTC is currently led solely by Chair Michael Selig, who was sworn in on Dec. 22. There is no concrete timeline for when the remaining four commissioner seats are expected to be filled.

Senators Roger Marshall, Dick Durbin, and Peter Welch also made amendments to include the Credit Card Competition Act, which seeks to prohibit “credit card networks and certain card-issuing financial institutions from requiring network exclusivity on credit cards.”

The Senate markup for Tuesday comes after it was postponed on Jan. 15 due to disputes over stablecoin rewards restrictions and other decentralized finance provisions, which led major industry player Coinbase to withdraw support.

Snowstorm could postpone Senate markup again

There are fears that Tuesday’s markup will be pushed back again, with an incoming snowstorm predicted to strike Washington DC over the weekend.

Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection.

“Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve.

What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally

Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries.

“Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was.

The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside.

For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view.

The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.”

That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off.

Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.”

For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again.

At press time, BTC traded at $89,297.

Litecoin is once again at a critical crossroads, with its long-term structure remaining intact after years of successful defenses. However, the margin for error is thin. As price hovers near key levels, $63 has emerged as the line bulls must protect. A break below it could shift momentum sharply, while holding above keeps the broader bullish structure alive and sets the stage for the next decisive move.

Structure Gives Way, Expansion Phase Begins

Columbus’s latest LTC update highlights that the multi-year compression that previously capped price action has finally resolved, resulting in a clean break of the long-term chart setup. This structural change confirms a shift from a neutral state to a clearly bullish one.

The current price action is described as a pause before expansion rather than the conclusion of the rally. In this phase, Litecoin is holding steady above old resistance levels, allowing the market to load for the next leg of the move, turning previous barriers into new support. Litecoin’s projected path forward is based on the typical behavior of expansion cycles following structural breaks. 

The strategy follows a clear three-step progression: the initial breakout, followed by the current phase of acceptance. Once the market fully accepts these new price levels, the “real move” begins, representing a phase where the most significant gains are expected to materialize.

The 9-Year Trendline That Still Controls Litecoin

Matthew Dixon highlighted the immense historical significance of the Litecoin long-term trend line. This line has acted as an unbreakable floor for nine years, with the price never closing below it. While the market has dipped under this line multiple times in the past, every attempt to break down has ultimately failed, maintaining a remarkably consistent structural defense.

Currently, the market environment is putting this nearly decade-long support to the test once again. Dixon emphasizes that we cannot rely on intra-month volatility to determine the outcome. Instead, the definitive signal rests solely on the monthly candle close. This closing price will serve as a macro-economic pivot point that dictates the primary direction for the coming months.

A successful hold above the trend line would be a powerful bullish confirmation, suggesting the long-term uptrend remains intact despite external pressures. Conversely, a confirmed close below this line would shift the narrative to bearish, marking a historic breakdown of a nine-year support system.

Specific technical triggers are also in play, particularly the $63 level. Dixon warns that falling below $63 would be devastating, as it would effectively nullify the hidden bullish divergence currently supporting the price. Given these risks, Dixon recommends exercising patience until the monthly close or ensuring strict stop losses are in place for any active trades.

The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency has knocked back US Senator Elizabeth Warren’s bid to pause the review of World Liberty Financial’s application for a national trust bank charter, a move she sought until US President Donald Trump divests his stake in the crypto platform.

The OCC’s Jonathan Gould confirmed on Friday that WLF’s application will be evaluated under existing regulatory standards while emphasizing that no political or personal financial ties will impact the procedural review of the bank charter.

“The OCC intends to act consistent with this duty rather than your demand,” he said in response to Warren’s Jan. 14 letter. “The OCC charter application process should be, and under my leadership will be, an apolitical and nonpartisan process.”

Gould added that WLF’s application would be subject to a “rigorous review,” like any application it receives.

The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.

IPO activity is heating up. BitGo listed on the NYSE with backing from YZi Labs. Ledger and CertiK are exploring IPOs, Grayscale filed for a BNB ETF, and Dogecoin landed another ETF. Revolut dropped its U.S. merger plans to pursue a de novo bank charter. UBS is eyeing crypto trading for private clients.

Onchain signals are shifting. CryptoQuant says bitcoin holders are realizing net losses — a pattern last seen during the 2021–22 cycle. CZ is back online, reflecting on prison, Trump, and a potential bitcoin supercycle.

Meanwhile, Farcaster says it’s staying online and returning $180 million to VCs. Coinbase expects a constructive Q1 after last year’s reset. P.S. Don't forget to check out The Funding, a biweekly rundown of crypto VC trends. It's a great read — and just like The Daily, it's free to subscribe!

Binance applies for EU-wide crypto license via Greece under MiCA

Binance has applied for a Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) license in Greece, aiming to secure a unified regulatory approval that would allow it to operate across all 27 European Union member states.

• If approved by Greece’s Hellenic Capital Market Commission, the license would let Binance bypass country-by-country authorizations using MiCA’s “passporting” framework.
• MiCA, which came into force in 2023, sets strict EU-wide standards for governance, consumer protection, and compliance. Existing crypto firms in the EU have until June 30 to obtain a license or risk having to exit individual countries.
• Binance has established a local Greek holding company and is working with major accounting firms like Ernst & Young and KPMG. While Greece is not typically viewed as a European crypto hub, Binance’s filing there may be strategic, given past regulatory hurdles elsewhere.
• Binance’s European journey has included withdrawals or suspensions in Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, and Belgium, while French regulators have inspected the firm’s operations. Binance says it has over 20 million users in the region and operates in at least six European countries.

What’s next for US crypto legislation as Senate Ag Committee releases bill text

Senate Agriculture Committee Chair John Boozman released the text of the crypto market structure bill on Wednesday. Boozman acknowledged that “fundamental policy issues” remain unresolved.

• The bill includes pro–DeFi provisions and CFTC oversight, but lacks the full Democratic support needed to pass the Senate. Bipartisan support is essential: the bill needs 60 Senate votes, meaning at least seven Democrats must join Republicans.
• A source familiar with the matter told The Block that Democrats haven’t clearly articulated their opposition, though political disagreements seem to be at play.
• Senate Banking Committee efforts have stalled — Coinbase pulled its support due to disagreements over tokenized equities, stablecoin rewards, and DeFi treatment. Banking Committee hearings (or markups) are delayed as the panel shifts focus to housing and affordability.
• The Senate Agriculture Committee will hold its markup hearing next week to debate, amend, and vote on the bill. Prospects for passage of a crypto bill remain slim ahead of the midterms, as political focus turns elsewhere, Saga CEO Rebecca Liao, a member of former President Joe Biden's 2020 presidential campaign, told The Block.
• Legislative momentum exists, but success will depend on resolving internal party disputes and aligning the Senate Banking Committee.

CryptoQuant says bitcoin holders are realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023

Bitcoin holders are now realizing net losses after over a year of realized gains, marking the first instance since October 2023, according to CryptoQuant. This marks a “regime shift” from profit-taking to loss realization, the firm said.

• Since Dec. 23, 2025, cumulative realized losses total ~69,000 BTC, per CryptoQuant. Realized profit momentum has declined steadily through successive lower peaks in 2024 and 2025, the firm noted.
• Net realized profits are now at 2.5 million BTC, down from 4.4 million BTC in October — the lowest since March 2024, according to CryptoQuant. Net realized losses also resemble levels from March 2022, the early stages of the last bear market, the firm added.
• The current pattern closely mirrors the 2021–2022 bull-to-bear transition, when net losses began to dominate, CryptoQuant said. It calculates realized P&L by comparing the price at transfer with the previous transfer price using onchain data.

Dogecoin gets another ETF but Wall Street's memecoin appetite remains muted

21shares has launched the 21shares Dogecoin ETF (TDOG) on Nasdaq. The firm noted that it is the only ETF provider endorsed by the Dogecoin Foundation.

• TDOG is the latest in a line of Dogecoin ETFs, following launches from REX-Osprey (DOJE), Bitwise, and Grayscale.
• Cumulative DOGE ETF trading volume since 2025 stands at ~$200 million, with less than $40M in AUM — underwhelming versus XRP ETFs, which did $2B+ in volume.
• Given DOGE's role as a memecoin, the flop from the ETF side is not a surprise to some.
• "It's the people's coin, built on memes, community energy, and viral moments," Dominant Strategies CEO Alan Orwick told Sherwood News earlier this month. "The fact that Dogecoin can pump 21% in a week without a single dollar of ETF inflows shows the community still has pricing power independent of Wall Street."

Farcaster to return $180M to investors, says protocol will continue under Neynar

Merkle Manufactory, the company behind decentralized social protocol Farcaster, plans to return the full $180 million it raised from investors, according to co-founder Dan Romero.

• Romero clarified that Farcaster is not shutting down and will continue operating after its acquisition by Neynar, a decentralized social infrastructure startup. Neynar plans to steer the protocol toward a more developer-centric direction.
• Romero said Farcaster had 250,000 monthly active users in December and over 100,000 funded wallets.

In the next week 

• U.S. durable goods orders and consumer confidence data are due on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision and Chair Jerome Powell’s press conference follow on Wednesday. Markets will watch jobless claims on Thursday and producer price index (PPI) data on Friday.
• Globally, the Bank of Canada announces its rate decision on Wednesday. GDP data from France, Spain, Germany, Italy, and the euro area are due Friday, along with Germany’s inflation print. China’s manufacturing PMI is out Saturday, and India unveils its Union Budget on Sunday.
• Plasma, Bitget, Jupiter, Kamino, Humanity, and Sign Global are among the crypto projects with upcoming token unlocks.

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Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Ahead of a hearing next week to debate and vote on a sweeping cryptocurrency market structure bill in the Senate Agriculture Committee, members filed several changes to the legislation, including language addressing President Donald Trump's conflicts of interest.

On Friday, some amendments were filed ahead of a markup happening in the Senate Agriculture Committee on Tuesday. Among those is one from Sen. Michael Bennet, D-Colo., to add the "Digital Asset Ethics Act" to the bill. That amendment would ban "covered individuals" like the president, vice president, and lawmakers from making certain financial transactions involving digital assets.

The amendment seemingly seeks to address concerns among many Democrats with Trump and his family's crypto interests. Bloomberg estimated that Trump has raked in about $1.4 billion from his crypto ventures, including from DeFi and stablecoin project World Liberty Financial. The Trump family also holds a 20% stake in the mining firm American Bitcoin.

Other amendments were also filed on Friday about preventing fake transactions at "digital asset kiosks" and another from Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., that would delay a future crypto bill's effectiveness until at least four commissioners at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission have been appointed.

That issue has been a point of contention for some lawmakers since there is just one commissioner at the CFTC currently, its chair Michael Selig, of the maximum five commissioners. No more than three commissioners can be of the same political party.

The Senate Agriculture Committee, led by Republican Chair Sen. John Boozman, released its bill text this past week, but noted that differences remained on "fundamental policy issues."

"Although it’s unfortunate that we couldn’t reach an agreement, I am grateful for the collaboration that has made this legislation better," Boozman said on Wednesday.

Democratic support is essential to pass a crypto structure bill in the Senate. Sixty votes are required for a bill to pass, requiring unanimous support from Republicans and seven Democrats to be on board. The Senate Agriculture Committee, which has jurisdiction over the CFTC, is viewed as being able to work together compared to the Senate Banking Committee, which faced its own woes last week.

Plans to hold a markup in the Senate Banking Committee fell through last week after Coinbase withdrew its support, citing concerns over the treatment of tokenized equities, DeFi, roles for the Securities and Exchange Commission and CFTC, and a looming issue — how to treat stablecoin rewards. The Senate Banking Committee's bill had over 70 amendments at play.

Disclaimer: The Block is an independent media outlet that delivers news, research, and data. As of November 2023, Foresight Ventures is a majority investor of The Block. Foresight Ventures invests in other companies in the crypto space. Crypto exchange Bitget is an anchor LP for Foresight Ventures. The Block continues to operate independently to deliver objective, impactful, and timely information about the crypto industry. Here are our current financial disclosures.

© 2026 The Block. All Rights Reserved. This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.