Bitcoin Forecasts For 2026 Range From $65K To $250K As Sentiment Hits ‘Extreme Fear’

Since Bitcoin hit an all-time high (ATH) of $126,000 in October 2025, the price of the flagship cryptocurrency coin has declined. The long period of downward volatility has shaken the confidence of a few top Bitcoin analysts, who are now bearish as to the future outlook.

Analyst sentiment shifts as Bitcoin consolidation drags on

As highlighted by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, there has been a general shift in sentiment as top Bitcoin analysts' outlook "turns red." This suggests that the long, drawn-out period of stagnation, which some consider price consolidation, has triggered concerns.

Young Ju also noted that with this shift in sentiment, he too now feels isolated in being optimistic about a rebound for Bitcoin. "My favorite analysts turned bearish. I feel lonely," he wrote.

With many analysts anticipating further price weakness rather than growth, those still optimistic about BTC’s recovery appear to be on a decline.

Recently, entrepreneur and renowned author of "Rich Dad, Poor Dad" Robert Kiyosaki signaled his loss of confidence in the flagship crypto asset. Kiyosaki, who has always advocated buying Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation, stunned the community when he sold off part of his portfolio to invest in other ventures.

More concerning was Kiyosaki’s silence about Bitcoin on his social media page, X. Unlike in previous bull rallies when the author constantly shared his opinion on the asset, there has been nothing but silence from him.

Despite the bearish outlook in the Bitcoin market, Ki Young Ju appears not convinced by the bearish consensus among analysts. While he did not explicitly say Bitcoin will climb or when, Young Ju is remaining bullish on the coin.

Some optimists in the community are also not giving up on Bitcoin’s rebound. In fact, they opine that the current decline affords investors an opportunity to accumulate the asset. The bearish consensus is seen as a normal occurrence that precedes rallies, as per historical data.

Bitcoin's technical risks mount despite long-term optimism

As of this writing, Bitcoin is changing hands at $87,448.61, which represents a 1.36% decline in the last 24 hours. The coin has shed over $2,000 within this period, as volume is also down by 16.9% at $27.8 billion.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s technical chart shows that the coin risks plunging lower to $67,000 as a death cross looks set to emerge.

However, the decline will not be sharp as BTC still has some support between its current market price and the projected depth. Notably, these are the $80,600 and $74,111 price levels, respectively.

Under the President Donald Trump Administration, the U.S. government has taken a markedly different approach toward cryptocurrency. Instead of treating the sector as a regulatory problem or speculative threat, Washington is now moving to integrate crypto directly into the existing financial system. 

According to @tiger_research, the U.S. strategy is not to replace traditional finance with crypto, but to make crypto operate under familiar financial rules and structures.

U.S. SEC Signals New Era of Crypto Regulation

A major shift has occurred at the U.S. SEC. Under former Chair Gary Gensler, crypto regulation relied heavily on enforcement actions against companies like Ripple, Coinbase, and Binance. Clear rules were often missing, with lawsuits taking priority over guidance.

After Gensler’s exit, this approach changed. Under new leadership, the SEC introduced Project Crypto, aiming to clearly define which digital tokens qualify as securities. According to tiger_research, this signals a move away from regulation through lawsuits toward a structured regulatory framework, an important step for the crypto industry’s long-term growth.

CFTC Embraces Crypto as Collateral

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has also expanded its role. It formally recognized Bitcoin and Ethereum as commodities and approved them, alongside USDC, for use as collateral in derivatives markets.

Through its Digital Asset Collateral Pilot Program, the CFTC applied traditional risk controls like haircuts, treating crypto assets similarly to conventional financial collateral. This signals a deeper level of institutional trust and positions crypto as functional financial infrastructure, not just speculative assets.

OCC Opens the Banking Door

Perhaps the most structural shift came from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). Previously, crypto firms were locked out of federal banking oversight and forced to navigate state-by-state licensing.

That changed in late 2025, when the OCC conditionally approved national trust bank charters for firms such as Circle and Ripple. This move puts major crypto companies on equal footing with traditional banks, allowing nationwide operations and direct settlement without intermediary banks.

Stablecoins Get Legal Clarity

Congress also delivered long-awaited clarity through the GENIUS Act, which set strict rules for stablecoin issuers. The law mandates 100% reserve backing, bans rehypothecation, and assigns federal oversight. As the analyst notes, this effectively transforms stablecoins into legally recognized digital dollars.

Why This Matters for Crypto

This past year shows the U.S. is not banning crypto, nor fully deregulating it. Instead, it is absorbing crypto into its financial core. Regulatory debates still exist, especially around privacy tools like Tornado Cash, but those tensions reflect institutional checks rather than policy reversal.

For crypto markets, Bitcoin’s 2025 run under Trump was volatile but constructive. BTC surged above $109,000 early in the year on pro-crypto optimism and regulatory clarity, then sold off sharply after Trump’s tariff announcements hit risk markets. 

Despite the pullback, adoption kept rising through state reserves and corporate Bitcoin treasuries, helping BTC recover and rally again. After the Fed cut rates in September, Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high near $125,800 in October, with bullish macro conditions reviving upside expectations.

FAQs

A clear regulatory framework reduces legal uncertainty, encouraging institutional investment and enabling startups to innovate without fearing unexpected lawsuits.

National trust bank charters allow firms like Circle and Ripple to operate nationwide, speeding up transactions and integrating crypto more closely with traditional finance.

Treating crypto like traditional financial collateral allows derivatives and lending markets to expand, increasing liquidity and encouraging broader institutional adoption.

Ethereum is trading near a crucial price zone, leaving traders cautious as the market looks for its next direction. After weeks of volatile moves, ETH has entered a slower phase, hovering close to a key support area. The current price action suggests the market is at a decision point, where a strong move in either direction could soon follow.

Ethereum Price Analysis

Looking at the chart, some traders believe Ethereum may be forming a Head & Shoulders structure. ETH moved into the $3,200–$3,250 range in early December, which could mark the left shoulder. This was followed by a stronger rally above $3,400, forming the head. The most recent rebound stalled lower, around $3,100–$3,150, which may represent the right shoulder.

The supply of XRP on exchanges is rapidly declining and is now approaching 1.5 billion XRP. XRP outflows might suggest institutional custody moves as long-term holders shift tokens off centralized exchanges. This decline is fueled by XRP ETFs, which have seen demand since their debut.

In a tweet, X handle unknown DLT observed that XRP ETFs are absorbing supply fast as institutional appetite for XRP exposure continued to build through exchange-traded funds.

The group of five XRP spot ETFs that have launched since Nov. 13, notably those from Canary, 21Shares, Grayscale, Bitwise and Franklin Templeton, have surpassed $1.14 billion in cumulative total net inflow as of Dec. 22, according to SoSoValue.

According to SoSoValue, total net assets across spot XRP ETFs reached about $1.24 billion as of Dec. 26.

According to unknown DLT, XRP ETFs are absorbing supply fast, which brings up a potential supply shock if this continues.

2026 scenario presents

According to unknown DLT, with only about 1.5 billion XRP left on exchanges and about 750 million absorbed in weeks, a supply shock might be likely by early 2026. The analyst says this aligns with the Clarity Act, forcing price discovery and enabling real institutional use. He believes that 2026 is the inflection point where XRP shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure.

2026 teases game-changing updates for XRP Ledger aimed at positioning it for massive utility.

The recently released rippled v 3.0.0 release adds amendments such as Lending Protocol, Dynamic MPT and fixDelegateV1_1, all of which are nearly code complete but not yet open for voting.

XRPL Lending Protocol, a new protocol-native system that enables on-ledger lending for institutions while also allowing XRP holders to earn institutional-grade yield, is underway. XRP reversed a five-day drop on Dec. 26 and is trading at $1.85.

XRP's price remains in a range of $1.85-$1.91, with next resistance near $2 and support near $1.86, suggesting a potential decisive break ahead.

Bitcoin is about to close 2025 almost exactly where it started.

After riding a strong bullish wave for most of the year, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high of $126,080 on October 6. ETF inflows were strong, regulatory progress improved sentiment, and on-chain activity picked up. But the rally didn’t last.

A mix of macro disappointments, leverage wipeouts, and heavy whale selling cooled the market, pushing BTC back into the $80,000-$90,000 range by December.

Galaxy Digital says that while 2025 may end quietly, it helps lay the groundwork for what comes next.

Galaxy Digital: 2026 Is Hard to Call

In its annual report, Galaxy Digital took a cautious stance on Bitcoin’s near-term outlook. While the firm expects Bitcoin to reach $250,000 by the end of 2027, it admits that 2026 is far less predictable.

According to Galaxy, Bitcoin still hasn’t fully regained bullish momentum. Until BTC can hold above the $100,000-$105,000 range, downside risk remains on the table.

Options Markets Show Extreme Price Ranges

That uncertainty is clearly showing up in derivatives markets. Options traders are pricing nearly equal odds of Bitcoin trading at $70,000 or $130,000 by June 2026. By the end of 2026, expectations stretch even wider from $50,000 to $250,000.

2025 Predictions Fell Short

Galaxy also reviewed its 2025 Bitcoin calls and several missed the mark.

Bitcoin did not cross $150,000 or test $185,000 as expected. While BTC briefly became one of the top risk-adjusted performers earlier in the year, it’s now on track to finish 2025 with a negative Sharpe ratio. Spot Bitcoin ETFs also fell short of the $250 billion AUM target, reaching about $141 billion instead.

A “Boring” Year May Still Be Bullish

Despite the setbacks, Galaxy believes Bitcoin is maturing into a more traditional macro asset. Volatility has declined, and downside protection now costs more than upside bets – a shift usually seen in established markets like gold.

For Bitcoin, stability may be the real signal of progress.

FAQs

Bitcoin reached an all-time high but ended the year near its starting price, showing reduced volatility and signaling maturation as a macro asset rather than pure speculation.

Traders price wide ranges for 2026, from $50,000 to $250,000, reflecting uncertainty from macro factors like monetary policy, AI spending, and U.S. elections.

Lower volatility and higher cost of downside protection suggest Bitcoin is becoming a more stable, institutional-friendly asset, laying groundwork for long-term growth.

The Bitcoin price has decreased by almost 2% over the last 24 hours and is down nearly 3% from yesterday’s peak. At first glance, nothing about the price appears exciting.

However, something beneath the chart, especially on-chain, has changed for the first time in almost three months, and something else changed this week. These two shifts do not confirm a rally as 2026 approaches, but they might be the first building blocks of one.

A Momentum Shift Begins, but Needs Proof

Two signals have appeared simultaneously. They are separate, but the timing matters.

The first is the On-Balance Volume (OBV). OBV measures buying and selling pressure through volume. Between December 21 and December 26, Bitcoin’s price trended higher. OBV did not follow. It made lower highs. That is a bearish OBV divergence. It explains why the price failed to break through (long wick on December 26), as volume didn’t accompany the minor price rise.

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This week, OBV broke above the trend line that connected those lower highs. That breakout suggests stronger buying pressure is forming. The signal is not confirmed until OBV makes a higher high above 1.58 million. If that happens, the Bitcoin price could finally react. That has not happened yet.

The second signal comes from the Hodler net position change metric. This tracks wallets that hold for longer than 155 days. They are the slowest movers in the market.

On December 26, this metric flipped positive for the first time since late September. Long-term holders added 3,783.8 BTC. They do not buy for short-term moves. They buy for conviction. And this is the first time in almost three months that conviction has shown up.

A relief rally needs both sides. OBV must follow through. Hodlers must continue adding. One without the other is not enough.

The Bitcoin Price Map That Decides Year-End Or Early 2026

The Bitcoin price still has work to do. Price levels tell the real story.

Bitcoin has failed to reclaim $90,840 for almost two weeks. That level rejected the price on December 12 and has blocked every attempt since. Until price clears that level, every bounce feels temporary.

Above $90,840, the first real relief rally checkpoint sits near $97,190. The BTC price fell below that level on November 14.

If the rally extends, $101,710 and $107,470 are the next zones.

On the downside, support sits at $86,915. It has held since December 19. Losing it opens room to $80,560. Low year-end liquidity increases that risk. For now, based on how long-term investors are positioning, the Bitcoin price can attempt a relief rally toward $90,840 and even beyond if the support at $86,910 holds.