Australia Jobs Unexpectedly Fall In Nov; Unemployment Rate Steady At 4.3%

Forex

Economic

Summary:

Australia's labour market weakened in November as the number of full-time workers declined sharply, although the jobless rate held steady, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) said on Thursday.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.3%, unchanged from October, and missed market estimates of 4.4%.

Employment declined by 21,300 in November, contrasting forecasts of a 20,000 increase, and reversed from a 41,100 rise seen in October.

Full-time roles fell by 57,000, with men accounting for 40,000 of the decline. Part-time work rose by 35,000, partly offsetting the losses, with female part-time employment increasing by 29,000.

The participation rate slipped by 0.2 percentage points to 66.7%, reflecting fewer people engaged in the labour market.

ABS head of labour statistics Sean Crick said both employment and unemployment levels eased, contributing to a narrower pool of active jobseekers. He added that employment growth over the past year, at 1.3%, has lagged population growth of 2%.

The report comes after the Reserve Bank of Australia held interest rates unchanged earlier this week, citing rising inflationary risks.

Source: Investing

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Oliver Scott

On December 10, the Fed announced a 25 basis point cut to its key interest rates, confirming market expectations. However, behind this seemingly routine decision lie deep divisions: split votes, unclear economic context, and unprecedented political pressures. In a context marked by the absence of key economic data due to the shutdown, interpreting the U.S. monetary strategy becomes increasingly complex and potentially destabilizing.

In brief

● The U.S. Federal Reserve lowered its key interest rates by 25 basis points, placing them between 3.50 % and 3.75 %.

● This is the third consecutive cut since September, amid an economic context marked by uncertainty.

● Two Fed members voted against this decision, while another advocated for a stronger 50-point cut.

● The lack of recent economic data, due to the shutdown, made decision-making particularly delicate.

An expected but controversial cut within the Fed

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced, on Wednesday, December 10, a new 25 basis point cut to its key interest rates as markets had anticipated, bringing the Fed Funds Rate range to 3.50 % – 3.75 %.

This marks the third consecutive cut since September. This decision, although expected by markets, was not unanimous within the monetary policy committee. According to the official statement, "uncertainty regarding economic prospects remains high", and the committee "judges that downside risks to employment have increased in recent months".

The internal dissensions, rarely so marked, were made public :

● Two members voted against the rate cut : Jeffrey Schmid (Kansas City) and Austan Goolsbee (Chicago), both supporters of the status quo ;

● One member, Stephen Miran, recently appointed by Donald Trump, distinguished himself by voting for a more aggressive 50 basis point reduction ;

● This division reflects a deep disagreement on the strategy to adopt in an still unclear economic context.

This tension is also explained by the lack of updated on-chain economic data, a direct consequence of the extended U.S. government shutdown. The latest available unemployment rate, from September, is 4.4 %, while inflation then reached 2.8 %, above the 2 % target.

Several key indicators, such as job creation and consumption data, have not been published for several weeks, leaving the Fed in a delicate position. Due to lack of visibility, some members preferred to wait, while others judged it necessary to act now to support the labor market.

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A Fed under political pressure at the dawn of 2026

Beyond internal tensions, this monetary decision comes in a particularly sensitive political context.

President Donald Trump has intensified his criticism of Jerome Powell, whom he blames for monetary policy still too restrictive. Powell's term expires in spring 2026, and the White House has already launched consultations to replace him with a more accommodative profile.

According to several sources, Kevin Hassett, former economic advisor to Trump, is among the favorites. Trump makes no secret that he expects the future Fed chair to lead a more accommodative policy. This growing politicization of the central bank fuels concerns about the institution's future independence.

In parallel, the composition of the FOMC will evolve in 2026: four new voting members from regional banks will join the committee, according to the usual rotation system. This renewal could change the internal balance of debates, especially if profiles more favorable to low rates are appointed or promoted by the executive.

In the economic projections published this Wednesday, the Fed anticipates only one rate cut for 2026, while markets expect two. This divergence between the institution's discourse and market expectations increases uncertainty, notably for investors seeking visibility.

The Fed resists Trump and maintains its stance despite political pressures. By opting for a measured cut, it asserts its independence while accommodating the markets. The question remains whether this stance will hold against the economic tensions of 2026 and investors' growing expectations.

Source: CryptoSlate

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Michael Ross

Federal Reserve officials delivered a third consecutive interest-rate reduction and maintained their outlook for just one cut in 2026.

The Federal Open Market Committee voted 9-3 Wednesday to lower the benchmark federal funds rate by a quarter point to a range of 3.5%-3.75%. It also subtly altered the wording of its statement suggesting greater uncertainty about when it might cut rates again.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Chair Jerome Powell suggested the Fed had now done enough to bolster the threat to employment while leaving rates high enough to continue weighing on price pressures.

"This further normalization of our policy stance should help stabilize the labor market while allowing inflation to resume its downward trend toward 2% once the effects of tariffs have passed through," he said.

When asked if it were a foregone conclusion that the Fed's next move would be a cut, Powell demurred, but added that he didn't see a rate hike as any official's base case.

Investors reeled in their expectations for rate cuts next year, from three to two. The S&P 500 index of US stocks closed 0.7% higher on the day, just short of all-time highs, and the yield on 10-year US Treasury notes fell modestly to about 4.15%.

Wednesday's dissents and the rate projections highlight divisions among policymakers that have emerged over whether weakness in the labor market or stubborn inflation represent the larger danger to the US economy.

In their October statement, the FOMC described what it would take into account "in considering additional adjustments" to their benchmark. In Wednesday's statement the committee reverted to language used last December — just before a pause in rate cuts — to say "in considering the extent and timing of additional adjustments."

The result marked the first time since 2019 that three officials voted against a policy decision, with dissents on both ends of the policy spectrum. The S&P 500 rose while Treasury yields and the dollar declined. No major changes were seen in market expectations for interest-rate cuts in 2026.

Two regional Fed presidents — Austan Goolsbee from Chicago and Jeff Schmid from Kansas City — voted against the decision, preferring to keep rates unchanged. Governor Stephen Miran, whom Trump appointed to the central bank in September, dissented again in favor of a larger, half-point reduction.

Fed officials also authorized fresh purchases of short-term Treasury securities to maintain an "ample" supply of bank reserves.

The decision to lower rates comes after divisions on the committee spilled into public view in recent weeks. Following the last rate cut in October, several officials warned of persistent inflation, indicating their hesitancy to support another reduction. Others remained focused on a weakening labor market, calling for at least one more cut.

Conflicting data helps explain why there hasn't been a unanimous vote on the FOMC since June.

Unemployment moved to 4.4% in September, up from 4.1% in June. But prices - as measured by the Fed's preferred gauge of inflation - rose 2.8% in the year through September, still meaningfully higher than the central bank's 2% target.

The government shutdown has further complicated the policy outlook by delaying the release of key data.

Despite the divisions on the committee and economic uncertainty, investors had expected a cut on Wednesday after New York Fed President John Williams, who is viewed as close to Powell, signaled his support for a December reduction in a Nov. 21 speech.

Fresh Forecasts

In their new economic forecasts officials' median projections pointed to one cut in 2026, and one in 2027. The rate outlook remained deeply divided, however. Seven officials indicated they favored holding rates steady for all of 2026, while eight signaled support for at least two.

Officials upgraded their median outlook for growth in 2026, to 2.3% from the 1.8% they projected in September. They also foresaw inflation declining to 2.4% next year, from the 2.6% they projected in September.

In his press conference, Powell said he expected the impact of tariffs to fade next year.

"Let's assume there are no major new tariff announcements — inflation from goods should peak in the first quarter," he said.

The policy decision also comes soon after President Donald Trump said he's decided whom he'll nominate to succeed Powell as Fed chair in May and indicated a decision will be announced early next year. The White House has poured criticism on the Fed for not cutting interest rates more quickly, fueling concerns that the central bank's independence is under threat.

Fed officials approved the new Treasury purchases beginning Dec. 12. The move was anticipated by many Wall Street banks as a way to support liquidity in overnight funding markets.

Since 2022 and until this month, the central bank had been reducing the size of its Treasury holdings, aiming to reach the smallest possible size without disrupting money markets.

Source: Theedgemarkets

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Central Bank

Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's policy path may include as many as four rate increases by 2027, with three more coming after a widely anticipated move next week, according to a former executive director.

"They are probably thinking they have completely fallen behind the curve," Hideo Hayakawa, the former official, said in an interview Wednesday. "Ueda will probably indicate that it's not the end of the cycle even after raising the rate this time."

Hayakawa was speaking as the central bank is broadly expected to raise borrowing costs to 0.75% on Dec. 19 in its first move since January. A primary market focus of the event will be how the bank characterizes the future policy path.

"They will probably go back to a pace of rate hikes roughly once in every six months," Hayakawa said. He said the terminal rate is probably around 1.5%, requiring three more hikes beyond the expected move next week.

A key point for BOJ watchers is whether the central bank will offer any guidance about Japan's neutral rate, a level deemed neither stimulative nor restrictive for the economy. The bank previously indicated that the level lies somewhere between 1% and 2.5%.

Hayakawa said it's possible authorities might narrow the estimated range of the rate based on updated data, although he expects more information to come in January, when the bank updates its quarterly economic outlook.

Hayakawa, who has known Ueda more than 40 years, noted that the governor was almost unequivocal in his communication about next week's board meeting, with a cluster of comments that together sent a strong signal.

The governor said authorities would make the right call on whether to hike, and even with a higher rate, conditions would stay accommodative — seemingly a preemptive defense against any accusations that his policy stance might differ from the government's fiscal approach.

"Ueda almost stated the hike categorically," Hayakawa said, noting that by some thinking it would make more sense to wait until January to enable authorities to gather more data on the momentum for wage hikes for next year.

The BOJ shouldn't be blamed for the delay in rate increases this time, as the board had to monitor waves of uncertainty pertaining to President Donald Trump's tariff measures and the timing of Sanae Takaichi's ascent as the nation's new prime minister, Hayakawa said.

"Trump and Takaichi are variables that the BOJ has no control over," Hayakawa said. "That's just unfortunate."

Hayakawa, also a former BOJ chief economist, warned that there's a risk Takaichi's expansionary fiscal policies could force the BOJ to quicken its pace of rate increases and push the terminal rate higher. Takaichi compiled an economic package last month with fresh spending of a larger scale than economists were forecasting.

Takaichi is creating massive fiscal debt in an effort to boost an economy that has no lack of demand, and her fiscal spending to ease the impact of inflation is more likely to end up boosting price pressures, Hayakawa said.

"It's fairly risky," Hayakawa said. "Including that, Ueda is probably feeling he's fallen behind the curve."

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Daniel Carter

Economic

The Trump administration is launching a $700 million pilot program to help farmers more easily adopt "regenerative" practices that improve the health of soil and water.

The program — part of President Donald Trump's Make America Healthy Again push — aims to cut red tape for growers seeking to change their operations in ways that limit losses from wind or runoff, according to a joint release from US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Mehmet Oz, the administration's chief of Medicare and Medicaid.

"In order to continue to be the most productive and efficient growers in the world, we must protect our topsoil from unnecessary erosion and improve soil health and land stewardship," Rollins said in the release. "Today's announcement encourages priorities while supporting farmers who choose to transition to regenerative agriculture."

The release didn't specify how much farmers may receive for adopting regenerative practices. Regenerative agriculture can include reducing or eliminating the plowing of fields or planting so-called "cover crops" to limit wind erosion between harvests.

The move comes after the Trump administration earlier this year canceled $3 billion in funding under former President Joe Biden's so-called Climate-Smart Commodities program, citing high administrative fees that limited payouts to farmers.

Farm Action, a nonpartisan group advocating for fair and sustainable food systems, said it welcomed the program. The group is against large multinational companies from receiving benefits at the expense of smaller farms.

"Regenerative agriculture is not only better for the land and public health, but it also creates a path to rebuilding farmer profitability and reducing dependency on costly chemicals and other inputs controlled by a few giant companies," said Angela Huffman, Farm Action's president.

Stephanie Feldstein, population and sustainability director at the Center for Biological Diversity, said more details are needed.

"Farmers trying to do the right thing for our environment need all the support they can get, but without clear standards this ill-defined pilot program isn't enough," she said in a statement.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

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Manuel

Economic

Central Bank

The United States can use other measures to recreate the roughly $200 billion in revenues it is collecting under tariffs based on a 1977 law if the Supreme Court strikes down use of that law, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Wednesday.

Greer, speaking at an event hosted by ‌the Atlantic Council, said it would make sense for Congress to legislate new rules for U.S. trade in the longer term.

He declined to provide any details on the ‌Trump administration's backup plan if the highest court upholds a lower court ruling that tariffs based on the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were illegal, but indicated Washington would turn to other laws to justify new tariffs.

"I'm confident that with other tools we have related to unfair trade practices, we can produce the revenues we need," Greer said, adding, "It is a lot of money ... It's a big ⁠deal."

Asked about how long companies would have ‌to wait to receive refunds, if the tariffs were invalidated by the Supreme Court, Greer said that would be up to Treasury and Customs and Border Protection, adding that he met the CBP director ‍on Tuesday, but was uncertain of the timeline.

Greer said the U.S. was seeking a constructive relationship with China, dodging a question about the national security implications of a Trump administration decision to allow Nvidia to ship its second-most advanced AI chip to China.

Greer, who served in U.S. President Donald Trump's first term, defended the Republican's use of tariffs to address imbalances in U.S. trade with many trading partners. ‌He said the overall U.S. trade deficit was higher than it was last year given that many companies were front-running tariffs, but data since August showed a significant decrease.

The U.S. bilateral trade deficit with China would be down by about 25% this year if it continued at the current pace, he said. Investments in manufacturing were heading higher and should increase more next year, he said.

He said manufacturing jobs paid more and the U.S. should not "turn up its nose" at producing even goods like pencils or ⁠dolls, which had moved offshore in recent years.

Greer, whose staff met with a European Union technical delegation this week, also addressed relations with the EU, saying he was disappointed that Brussels had shown "zero moderation" in its position on U.S. technology firms, despite agreeing in July to refrain from such attacks.

Trump on Monday called an EU fine on Elon Musk's ‍social media company X "nasty" and thrashed ⁠European leaders in an interview with Politico.

Greer said U.S. policymakers were still discussing how to regulate digital technology companies, but Washington would not allow the EU to impose its plans on U.S. companies.

"It would be one thing if they ⁠had their own champions, right, but they don't, so it's a real problem," he said. "What I will say is we're not going to allow that ‌regulation to be outsourced, so I'm hopeful we'll have constructive discussions with our friends in the EU on ‌this."

Source: Reuters

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Manuel

Commodity

Central Bank

Gold advanced after the US Federal Reserve delivered an expected third consecutive interest rate cut and maintained its outlook for just one cut in 2026. Silver climbed to a record high.

Bullion rose as much as 0.7% as Treasury yields and the dollar declined further after policymakers’ final meeting of this year.

The “overall tone of the statement and updated projections as leaning dovish,” said Anna Wong, chief US economist at Bloomberg Economics. Before the FOMC statement, traders had feared a hawkish cut with further easing in question.

A dovish Fed would be positive for bullion as it typically benefits in a lower rate environment. Gold Gains as Fed Delivers Expected Cut With Less Hawkish Tilt_1

Gold Gains as Fed Delivers Expected Cut With Less Hawkish Tilt_1

Still traders kept bets on two more reductions in 2026, with the next quarter-point reduction priced in for June. The central bank forecast one quarter-point cut over the course of 2026, unchanged from its view in September.

In addition, the Fed said it will begin buying $40 billion of Treasury bills per month starting Dec. 12 as it’s looking to rebuild reserves in the financial system which dwindled while it was tightening its balance sheet.

That’s good news for gold as the move is “like mini-quantitative easing even though these are liquidity measures,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.

The Fed stopped shrinking its holdings earlier this month, a process known as quantitative tightening, amid signs that reserves in the banking system were no longer abundant.

“On balance, this rate decision day should be positive for gold short-term,” said Melek, adding that expectations a new Fed chair to be appointed in May will likely be “a dove” means gold is “good into early 2026.”

Silver climbed to a record high of $61.8671 an ounce, helped by the positive sentiment in the gold market. Prices of the white metal has more than doubled this year, eclipsing gold’s 59% rise. Its rally has gathered pace since a historic supply squeeze in October. Though this crunch has eased as more metal flows into London vaults, borrowing rates remain elevated — an indication of lingering tightness. Other markets are now seeing supply constraints, with Chinese inventories at decade lows.

Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,232.75 an ounce as of 3:42 p.m. in New York. Silver climbed to a record high of $61.9507 an ounce. Platinum and palladium fell. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index fell 0.4%.