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SYMBOL
LAST
BID
ASK
HIGH
LOW
NET CHG.
%CHG.
SPREAD
SPX
S&P 500 Index
6857.13
6857.13
6857.13
6865.94
6827.13
+7.41
+ 0.11%
--
DJI
Dow Jones Industrial Average
47850.93
47850.93
47850.93
48049.72
47692.96
-31.96
-0.07%
--
IXIC
NASDAQ Composite Index
23505.13
23505.13
23505.13
23528.53
23372.33
+51.04
+ 0.22%
--
USDX
US Dollar Index
98.850
98.930
98.850
98.980
98.840
-0.130
-0.13%
--
EURUSD
Euro / US Dollar
1.16571
1.16578
1.16571
1.16590
1.16408
+0.00126
+ 0.11%
--
GBPUSD
Pound Sterling / US Dollar
1.33446
1.33456
1.33446
1.33472
1.33165
+0.00175
+ 0.13%
--
XAUUSD
Gold / US Dollar
4224.33
4224.76
4224.33
4229.22
4194.54
+17.16
+ 0.41%
--
WTI
Light Sweet Crude Oil
59.302
59.339
59.302
59.469
59.187
-0.081
-0.14%
--

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Iw Institute: German Economy Faces Tepid Growth In 2026 Due To Global Trade Slowdown

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Stats Office - Seychelles November Inflation At 0.02% Year-On-Year

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Prices Rose 2.00% Intraday, Currently Trading At $58.27 Per Ounce

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S.Africa's Gross Reserves At $72.068 Billion At End November - Central Bank

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[Market Update] Spot Silver Broke Through $58/ounce, Up 1.56% On The Day

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Dollar/Yen Down 0.33% To 154.61

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Kremlin Says No Plans For Putin-Trump Call For Now

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Kremlin Says Moscow Is Waiting For USA Reaction After Putin-Witkoff Meeting

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Cctv - China, France: Say Both Sides Support All Efforts For A Ceasefire, Restore Peace According To Intl Law

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[Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Hopes Chinese And American Business Communities Will Focus On Three Lists] On December 4, Chinese Ambassador To The US Xie Feng Delivered A Speech At The China-US Economic And Trade Cooperation Forum Jointly Hosted By The China Council For The Promotion Of International Trade And The Meridian International Center. Xie Feng Said That In November 2026, China Will Host The APEC Leaders' Informal Meeting For The Third Time In Shenzhen, Guangdong Province. In December 2026, The United States Will Also Host The G20 Meeting. Regarding How Chinese And American Business Communities Can Seize These Opportunities, He Suggested Focusing On Three Lists: First, Continue To Expand The Dialogue List; Second, Continuously Lengthen The Cooperation List; And Third, Constantly Reduce The Problem List

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India's Nifty Financial Services Index Extends Gains, Last Up 0.75%

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Eni : Jp Morgan Cuts To Underweight From Overweight

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Cctv - China, France: Signed Protocol On Sanitary, Phytosanitary Requirements For Export Of French Alfalfa Grass

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India's NIFTY IT Index Last Up 1.3%

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India's Nifty 50 Index Rises 0.35%

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Israel Sets 2026 Defence Budget At $34 Billion

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Russia Says Azov Sea's Port Of Temryuk Damaged In Ukrainian Attack

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Israel's Defense Budget For 2026 Will Be 112 Billion Israeli Shekels - Defense Minister Office

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One India Rate Panel Member Ram Singh Was Of View That Stance Should Be Changed To 'Accommodative' From 'Neutral' - Monetary Policy Committee Statement

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Reserve Bank Of India Chief: Will Continue To Meet Productive Needs Of Economy In Proactive Manner

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          Transforming the Financial Services Sector in Africa with 4IR Technologies

          Brookings Institution

          Economic

          Summary:

          Advanced technologies have already provided and continue to offer unprecedented opportunities for the continent to improve business performance and connect millions of unbanked people to financial services.

          Leapfrogging into the 4IR

          Despite Africa’s slower rates of internet penetration compared to the rest of the world, it is leading the way in other key areas of digitalization, including in the financial industry, indicating that there may be important leapfrogging opportunities available.
          Africa is home to more than half of the world’s registered and active mobile money accounts (800 million), and in 2023 sub-Saharan Africa was home to almost three-quarters of the world’s accounts and was the source of 70% of the growth in registered accounts. This uptick is in part due to the successful increase in mobile phone subscriber penetration, which outpaces broadband expansion and reached 43% in 2023, with mobile phones accounting for three-fourths of total online traffic in Africa. Mobile money increased GDP in the region by more than $150 billion between 2012-2022 (3.7%). This has led to a robust fintech sector on the continent with lucrative opportunities for the future—according to McKinsey, fintech is expected to reach $400 billion globally by 2028.
          A key leapfrogging opportunity lies in digital banking and payments. Approximately 90% of all financial transactions in Africa are conducted using cash and coins. Only 2% of Senegal’s population, for example, used a debit card as of 2022, and reliance on cash remains strong meaning there is great opportunity for these countries to leapfrog directly to digital payments.

          The impact of advanced technologies

          To facilitate such leapfrogging, advanced technologies are leading the way, with ample African-led innovations entering the financial services market.
          AI tools are helping customize financial services, from tracking financial transactions to investments and lending. These tools can help personalize services for customers in Africa and thus bring more people into financial services. The size of Africa’s population and number of interactions with digital financial services gives the continent an edge over other regions, since the high volume of data can help train new and existing algorithms faster, according to Sehrish Alikhan of Finextra.
          Blockchain, which increases the transparency and security of financial transactions, is helping power cross-border payments and decentralized lending. It also dramatically cuts the costs of digital financial transactions and builds trust, which is critical for African fintech.
          IoT is also at work in the financial sector. For example, M-KOPA, a Kenyan digital financial services company, has integrated advanced IoT technologies into its digital micropayments service, improving processing speed to 500 payments per minute and reaching 3 million people across the continent. The company uses Microsoft’s AI services to forecast and manage financial risk, allowing it to reach millions of unbanked and underbanked Africans and provide them with loans for purchases such as solar lighting, smartphones, refrigerators, and more.

          New areas for growth and outlooks

          African-led companies are also expanding into new areas of financial services, recognizing ripe opportunities to use advanced technologies in novel ways.
          Regulation technology or “regtech” is the use of advanced technologies to design new regulatory tools and enhance regulatory processes, including using AI to monitor data for regulatory data, using blockchain to track and verify compliance data, and using natural-language processing to help organizations understand regulatory requirements. RegTech is becoming an area of interest on the continent and in Nigeria, for example, is expected to see a 40% increase by 2026.
          Cryptocurrencies are also increasing in popularity in some parts of the continent. In 2023, Nigeria was ranked #2 in the Global Crypto Adoption List, behind India and ahead of the United States. The continent is even leveraging AI to create a new digital currency—the LUMI A.I. Commemorative Coin. One LUMI is backed by 100kWH of solar energy—equivalent to 4 grains of gold—and has gained increasing legitimacy, especially as digital economy platforms such as Swiffin/HanyPay have started to use it. AI is embedded in the currency’s digital coin, making transactions more efficient and secure through advanced encryption methods and allowing it to be integrated into digital platforms including mobile wallets and online banking systems.
          Fully digital banks, or neobanks, are also starting to emerge as potential players in the industry. South Africa’s TymeBank made its first monthly profit (a challenging mark for neobanks to reach) in December 2023, according to African Business, signaling that it could become more of a player in the years to come.

          Challenges and strategies

          These innovations within the financial services sector are showing local and global investors that advanced technologies will continue to change the game in the African market. Despite impressive progress, challenges remain. Millions remain unbanked across Africa, in particular women, according to Leora Klapper at Brookings, which means significant efforts must be made to ensure full financial inclusion.
          Although a number of strategies will be required to overcome these challenges, three are of particular importance.
          First, African countries must provide an agile regulatory environment that both enables innovation and protects citizens. The approach will likely differ in each country based on its unique context. For example, as research from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace explains, Kenya has used a “test and learn” approach which helped M-PESA, Kenya’s successful mobile money service, pilot and scale. Nigeria, in contrast, for the most part follows a “banking-led model,” and the Central Bank of Nigeria has played a leading role in prohibiting and approving mobile network operators from operating within mobile money services. Zimbabwe, meanwhile, has found success using fintech regulatory sandboxes, which provide companies with an experimental approach to better understand how regulations may affect them. The speed and scale at which advanced technologies are being developed and deployed across industries makes it necessary for African countries to move away from old methods of regulation that are often more reactive than proactive. To do so, countries should look at the experience of their African counterparts and think strategically about how their unique business dynamics and overall context might best be supported by different and more agile forms of regulatory environments.
          Second, African countries should better integrate advanced technologies to improve regulatory environments. RegTech offers tools for countries to experiment with a new way of thinking about regulation—one that uses a performance-based approach to standardize, automate, and streamline processes. By integrating various regtech applications, from machine-readable code that automates the processing of new regulations to image recognition that verifies identities, African countries can successfully identify their best course of action while continuing to adapt at speed as technology advances in their country. The World Economic Forum suggests asking three questions to better analyze what type of technology solution might be the most suitable for a country or company’s unique situation. These questions are: 1. What frictions exist in the regulatory process? 2. What is the nature of these frictions? 3. What processes could be improved to remove such frictions? These questions can help stakeholders identify entry points into the regtech arena and start the important process of integrating technologies into African regulatory ecosystems.
          Third, African countries need to build trust through enhanced cybersecurity infrastructure, which will be key to expanding 4IR technologies throughout the financial services sector. Fraud and cyber threats have become increasingly prominent, with the financial services sector being the top sectoral target for cyberattacks in 2022-2023. For example, in South Africa, a data breach of millions of citizens’ social security information led to the creation of fake financial offers. To reduce the potential consequences of such data breaches and other cybercrimes, African governments need to focus on strengthening their cybersecurity infrastructure. To do so, African governments, financial institutions, and companies must work together to allocate resources for building defenses against cyber threats, including encryption tools, threat detection systems, endpoint security solutions, and training for employees and customers. Collaboration and proactive measures will be key to direct investment and regulatory harmonization toward building a resilient cybersecurity ecosystem.
          Overall, African-led innovation within the financial services industry is catapulting the continent to the forefront of the industry, with important implications for digital inclusion and economic growth on the continent. As African countries continue to innovate, African governments and relevant stakeholders must focus on finding the right regulatory balance, integrating advanced technologies into their regulatory frameworks, and fortifying their cybersecurity infrastructure in order to further solidify their leadership role within the industry.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          Economy: A Post-cycle Economy Faces Greater Policy Uncertainty

          JPMorgan

          Economic

          This year, the economy saw surprisingly robust growth with real GDP on track to expand at a 1.8% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, closing 2024 with 2.3% annual growth, by our estimates. The biggest driver of this strength has been consumer spending, which contributed an average 78% of real GDP growth in the first three quarters. Despite pushing back on high retail prices, a thriftier consumer managed to stretch their budget and still expand their shopping cart. Inflation-adjusted consumer spending grew 3.0% year-over-year in 3Q, accelerating from 2.7% in 2Q, fueled by strong gains in real after-tax income. Consumption has been dominated by highincome households, which have enjoyed enormous gains in household wealth, along with strong interest, dividend and property income. Elsewhere, consumers have been more cautious but continue to spend. In the year ahead, continued progress in real wage growth should broadly support consumers, but consumption is likely to contribute less to growth going forward as the tailwind of pent-up savings and debt has largely faded.
          Interest rate-sensitive sectors continued to face challenges but began to stabilize as interest rates peaked. The scope of its acceleration will depend on how much long-end yields move lower next year. Residential investment contracted in 2Q and 3Q as homebuilder sentiment struggled under elevated long-term interest rates, which may persist even as the Fed lowers the federal funds rate. The manufacturing sector, grappling with slow global demand, has also experienced weak job growth and new order activity. However, potential rate cuts could stimulate activity in these sectors, thereby broadening support for GDP growth.
          Despite high borrowing costs, business investment has been buoyed by strong corporate balance sheets and fiscal support from legislation such as the CHIPS Act and the Inflation Reduction Act. Tech companies, in particular, have accelerated investment amidst an AI-arms race, and lower rates could facilitate similar investments across other sectors.
          Economy: A Post-cycle Economy Faces Greater Policy Uncertainty_1
          The labor market, while facing challenges such as recent hurricanes and strikes, is expected to remain healthy, with continued job gains and a stable unemployment rate at close to 4%. Employment growth has moderated and may stabilize at a monthly pace of 100,000 to 150,000, consistent with moderate employment growth and a down-shift in immigration. As the labor market normalizes, so too should the inflation rate. We anticipate headline PCE inflation to close the year at 2.3%, and then average 2.0% next year. Altogether, we expect real GDP to expand 2.1% year-over-year in 2025, marking its fifth consecutive year of expansion.

          Policy shifts cast a fog of uncertainty on the outlook

          The re-election of Donald Trump and the Republican sweep of Congress could lead to significant policy changes, casting a fog on the economic outlook. While the specifics and timing of potential policy shifts remain unclear, we anticipate tax cuts, higher tariffs, reduced immigration and deregulation of various sectors.
          On the tax front, a full extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the potential for a lower corporate tax rate for U.S.-based production seem most likely. Slim majorities in the Senate and House may limit a full implementation of proposed tax measures, but there could still be some items folded in on business tax provisions, tip income and the cap on SALT deductions. Regardless of any tariff budgetary offsets the administration may propose, these policies are likely to increase the deficit without significantly stimulating economic activity, adding to the nation’s long-term fiscal challenges.
          An area of potential economic concern is the incoming Trump administration’s stance on tariffs. President-elect Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports and a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which could be interpreted as a bargaining tool in trade negotiations. If these tariffs were enacted as stated, they could lead to higher inflation and reduce overall demand, as well as higher interest rates and a stronger U.S. dollar. According to a recent estimate by the Budget Lab at Yale, these tariffs would raise consumer prices by 1.4% to 5.1% before substitution, equivalent to the cost of $1,900 to $7,600 in disposable income for the average household.
          Additionally, severely curtailed immigration could decrease real economic growth by limiting the growth of the labor force and may cause higher inflation through higher wages.
          Lastly, it remains to be seen what the countervailing effect of lower regulations across various sectors is, especially the perspective for higher capital investment and hiring.
          If we incorporate a rough expectation of these policy changes into our economic forecasts, the outlook shifts accordingly:
          Real GDP would be largely unaffected next year, but tax cut stimulus kicking in at the start of 2026 could boost real GDP growth to 2.8% by the end of 2026.Job growth would be relatively unaffected in 2025 but labor markets would tighten. Lower labor force growth from less immigration would cut the unemployment rate to 3.9% by the end of 2025.Inflation, in terms of headline PCE, could rise to 2.7% by the end of 2025 in a one-time boost from tariffs then drift down to 2.1% by the end of 2026.The Fed could put a premature end to its easing cycle with just three more cuts, bringing the funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% by next summer and holding it there.
          Policy forecasts at this stage are still highly speculative, but they don’t seem to spell disaster for the economy or markets in the short run. In the coming months, investors will look for greater clarity on the new administration’s agenda, which will help refine the economic outlook. Until then, the economy remains on stable footing as we enter the new year, with a gradual return to normal across many fronts. However, investors should remain vigilant, considering the fragility of the economic expansion that underpins a bullish fervor in markets.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
          Add to Favorites
          Share

          How to Maintain Forex Trading Discipline and Patience: Key Strategies for Consistent Success

          Glendon

          Economic

          In the fast-paced and volatile world of forex trading, maintaining discipline and patience is crucial for long-term success. Many traders are lured by the potential of quick profits, which often leads to impulsive decisions and emotional trading. However, seasoned traders know that consistent profitability in the forex market requires a steady mindset, self-control, and the ability to wait for the right opportunities.
          In this article, we will explore effective strategies for maintaining discipline and patience in forex trading. We will also examine the psychological challenges that traders face and how to overcome them to become more successful traders.

          Why Discipline and Patience Matter in Forex Trading

          Forex trading is inherently risky, and emotions can cloud judgment. Whether you're trading currency pairs like EUR/USD or USD/JPY, making snap decisions based on fear or greed can lead to significant losses. Here’s why discipline and patience are critical:
          Avoiding Impulsive Decisions: Without discipline, traders are more likely to take unnecessary risks, chase short-term profits, or react to market noise.
          Managing Risk: Patience and discipline help traders adhere to their risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders and position sizing.
          Consistency Over Time: Forex trading is a marathon, not a sprint. Successful traders prioritize long-term growth over short-term gains, which requires patience.
          Emotional Control: The forex market can be unpredictable, and a disciplined trader can stay calm in the face of volatility, while an undisciplined one might panic and make emotional decisions.

          Strategies for Maintaining Discipline in Forex Trading

          Develop a Solid Trading Plan

          One of the most effective ways to maintain discipline is by creating a comprehensive trading plan.
          A trading plan should outline:
          Entry and exit rules: Clear criteria for when to enter and exit trades based on technical analysis or fundamental data.Risk management: Determine how much capital you are willing to risk on each trade, typically no more than 1-2% of your account balance.
          Trading goals: Set both short-term and long-term goals. Short-term goals might include achieving a specific profit target, while long-term goals could be related to growing your trading account consistently.
          By having a plan in place, you can avoid making decisions based on emotions and stick to the rules you’ve set for yourself. A structured plan will guide you through the ups and downs of trading, providing a framework for disciplined decision-making.
          Stick to Your Risk Management Rules
          Risk management is a crucial component of trading discipline. Without it, traders can quickly lose their capital. Always follow your risk management rules by:

          Setting stop-loss orders to limit potential losses.

          Using position sizing to ensure you’re not risking more than you can afford to lose.Diversifying your trades so that you’re not overexposed to a single currency pair or asset.By maintaining discipline in risk management, you avoid large drawdowns that can damage your confidence and trading capital.

          Keep a Trading Journal

          A trading journal is an essential tool for any serious forex trader. It allows you to track your trades, analyze what went right or wrong, and learn from your mistakes. By keeping detailed records of each trade, including your reasoning for entering and exiting, you can identify patterns in your behavior and refine your strategy over time.
          A trading journal also helps you maintain discipline by making you accountable for each trade. When you review your journal, it forces you to evaluate whether you followed your plan or deviated from it due to emotional impulses.

          Focus on the Long-Term Picture

          One of the biggest challenges for new traders is focusing on short-term profits rather than the long-term picture. The forex market can be highly volatile, and it can be tempting to chase quick gains during a market rally. However, successful traders understand that long-term consistency is more important than short-term profits.
          Patience is essential when trading for the long haul. Instead of looking for quick wins, focus on improving your trading skills, refining your strategy, and learning from each trade. Over time, this disciplined approach will pay off in steady profits.

          Avoid Overtrading

          Overtrading is a common pitfall for many traders. When you’re eager to make profits, you might be tempted to trade too often or take on more risk than you should. Overtrading can result in emotional burnout and financial losses.
          To avoid overtrading, establish a clear set of criteria for entering trades and stick to them. If the market doesn’t meet your criteria, stay out. Sometimes, the best action is inaction. Don’t feel pressured to trade just for the sake of being active.

          Limit Emotional Decision-Making

          Trading can trigger strong emotions such as fear, greed, and excitement. These emotions can cloud your judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. To maintain discipline and patience:
          Avoid revenge trading: If you’ve lost a trade, resist the urge to “get back at the market” by taking excessive risks. This type of emotional trading is often destructive.
          Take breaks: If you feel overwhelmed or frustrated, take a break from trading. Clear your mind and come back with a fresh perspective.
          Stay objective: Focus on the facts (charts, data, and analysis) rather than emotions. Trust your strategy and don’t let your emotions influence your trades.

          Practice Mindfulness and Self-Control

          Mindfulness is the practice of being present and aware of your thoughts and emotions without letting them control you. In the context of forex trading, mindfulness can help you:
          Recognize when emotions are affecting your decisions.
          Stay calm during market fluctuations.
          Focus on executing your trading plan instead of reacting to market noise.
          Practicing mindfulness techniques, such as deep breathing or meditation, can help you maintain emotional control and build the mental discipline necessary for successful trading.

          The Role of Patience in Forex Trading

          Patience is just as important as discipline when it comes to trading. It’s tempting to jump into trades impulsively, but successful traders understand the importance of waiting for the right setup. Here’s why patience is essential:
          Waiting for Clear Signals: In forex trading, it’s important to wait for clear technical or fundamental signals before entering a trade. Rushing into a position can lead to unnecessary losses.
          Not Chasing the Market: It’s easy to fall into the trap of “chasing” the market when prices are moving rapidly. However, chasing after a trade without proper analysis usually leads to poor outcomes.
          Allowing Trades to Play Out: Once you enter a trade, patience is required to let the market move in your favor. Don’t close your trade prematurely out of fear or impatience. Stick to your strategy and let the market unfold.

          Conclusion

          Maintaining discipline and patience is essential for becoming a successful forex trader. By developing a solid trading plan, adhering to risk management rules, keeping a trading journal, focusing on the long-term picture, and limiting emotional decisions, you can improve your trading performance.
          The road to consistent profits in forex trading is not a sprint but a marathon. By staying disciplined, patient, and focused on long-term goals, you’ll be better equipped to navigate the volatility of the forex market and achieve sustained success.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          What is a Ranging Market

          Glendon

          Economic

          In the world of financial markets, price movement is often classified into two major types: trending and ranging markets. While trending markets see sustained price movements in one direction, ranging markets are characterized by price movement that oscillates between a set range of support and resistance levels without establishing a clear upward or downward trajectory.
          Understanding a ranging market is essential for traders, as it presents unique opportunities and challenges compared to trending markets. In this article, we will explain what a ranging market is, how to identify it, and how to develop effective strategies for trading within such market conditions.

          What is a Ranging Market?

          A ranging market occurs when the price of an asset trades within a defined range of support and resistance levels, bouncing back and forth between these two points without breaking through either level. In simple terms, the market is in consolidation, and there is no clear trend direction.
          This situation typically arises when buying and selling pressures are balanced. The price struggles to break through a resistance level on the upside or a support level on the downside, causing the market to move sideways. The price movement in a ranging market often resembles a "wave-like" pattern, where it hits resistance, pulls back, hits support, and then retraces again.

          Key Characteristics of a Ranging Market:

          Horizontal Price Movement: In a ranging market, the price moves in a horizontal direction, bouncing between well-established support and resistance levels.
          Support and Resistance: The key levels that define a ranging market are support, which is the lower price boundary, and resistance, the upper boundary. These levels act as psychological barriers for traders, with support preventing the price from falling further and resistance preventing it from rising.
          Lack of Clear Trend: Unlike trending markets where prices move in one direction (up or down), a ranging market lacks any clear directional bias. The price action oscillates between the support and resistance levels.
          Sideways Price Action: The market fails to establish new highs or lows consistently, and the overall price movement is more horizontal than vertical.

          How to Identify a Ranging Market

          Traders can identify a ranging market through the following signs:
          Price Movement Between Parallel Lines: The most obvious feature of a ranging market is that the price moves between two parallel lines representing support and resistance. These lines are often horizontal, indicating that the price is oscillating within a bounded area.
          Indecision in the Market: A ranging market is usually the result of indecision among market participants. Buyers and sellers are not in agreement on the asset's value, so the price fails to break out either higher or lower.
          Volume Patterns: During a ranging market, trading volume can fluctuate, often being lower than during a trending market. High volume may indicate a breakout attempt, while low volume suggests that the market is in consolidation.
          Oscillators and Indicators: Technical indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Stochastic Oscillator often show overbought or oversold conditions when the market is ranging. These indicators can signal that the price is nearing support or resistance and may reverse.

          Why Do Markets Range?

          Markets tend to range for several reasons, most of which are related to balance or uncertainty. Here are a few reasons why a market may enter a range-bound phase:
          Market Consolidation: After a strong trend, markets often consolidate as traders take profits and the price stabilizes. This consolidation phase is typically marked by sideways movement, where the price fails to make new highs or lows.
          Lack of News or Economic Data: Ranging markets are common during periods of low news flow or when there is uncertainty in the market. Without significant economic data or geopolitical events, market participants may be less active, resulting in price stagnation.
          Market Sentiment: A range-bound market can also occur when there is a balance in sentiment between buyers and sellers. Neither side is willing to take control, causing the price to fluctuate within a tight range.
          Economic or Corporate Uncertainty: When there is uncertainty about a company's earnings, industry performance, or broader economic conditions, markets may enter a range as investors wait for clearer signals before taking action.

          Strategies for Trading in a Ranging Market

          Trading in a ranging market requires a different approach than trading in trending markets. Since there is no strong directional move, traders need to focus on making profits from price reversals within the range.
          Here are some effective strategies for trading in a range-bound market:

          1. Range Trading Strategy (Buying at Support and Selling at Resistance)

          One of the most popular strategies in a ranging market is range trading, where traders buy near support and sell near resistance. This approach assumes that the price will continue to bounce between these two levels.
          Buy near support: When the price reaches a level where it has bounced higher in the past, traders buy, expecting the price to move back up.
          Sell near resistance: When the price approaches a level where it has previously reversed downward, traders sell, expecting the price to fall again.

          2. Use of Oscillators and Indicators

          Indicators like RSI, Stochastic Oscillator, or CCI (Commodity Channel Index) can be especially useful in a ranging market. These indicators help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions, signaling potential reversal points near the support or resistance levels.
          RSI: An RSI above 70 indicates that the market may be overbought (near resistance), while an RSI below 30 suggests the market is oversold (near support).
          Stochastic Oscillator: This indicator can help pinpoint when the market is overextended and may reverse, making it ideal for range-bound markets.

          3. Breakout Trading (Anticipating a Breakout)

          While the goal in a ranging market is typically to trade the boundaries, some traders prefer to trade the breakout when the price moves beyond the established range. A breakout occurs when the price breaks through either support or resistance, signaling the potential for a new trend.
          Wait for Confirmation: When trading breakouts, it’s essential to wait for confirmation, such as high volume or a sustained move beyond the support or resistance level, before entering a trade.
          Stop Losses: It’s important to use stop losses to limit risk, as breakouts can sometimes fail, causing false moves in the opposite direction.

          4. Trading with Trendlines and Channel Patterns

          Drawing trendlines or identifying channel patterns can help traders visualize the range and anticipate potential price movements. A price channel forms when the price moves between two trendlines, one acting as support and the other as resistance.
          Traders can trade within these channels, buying near the lower trendline and selling near the upper trendline, until the price breaks out of the channel.

          Risk Management in a Ranging Market

          Managing risk is crucial in any market, but it's especially important in a ranging market, where price moves can be unpredictable. Here are some tips for effective risk management:
          Use Tight Stop Losses: Since price fluctuations in a ranging market can be small, using tight stop-loss orders can help protect against unexpected market moves.
          Avoid Overtrading: Ranging markets often have low volatility, which can lead to smaller profits. Overtrading in such conditions can result in high transaction costs and unnecessary losses.
          Set Realistic Targets: Given that price moves are typically confined within a range, it’s important to set realistic profit targets and adjust them based on the distance between support and resistance.

          Conclusion

          A ranging market presents a unique set of challenges and opportunities for traders. While price movement may appear slow and indecisive, range-bound markets offer traders the chance to profit from price reversals by using strategies such as range trading, breakout trading, and oscillator-based approaches. By understanding the dynamics of a ranging market and employing sound risk management techniques, traders can successfully navigate these market conditions and potentially achieve consistent profits.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          How to Know When to Close a Trade?

          Glendon

          Economic

          One of the most critical decisions that traders face is knowing when to close a trade. Whether you're trading stocks, forex, commodities, or cryptocurrencies, exiting a position at the right time can make the difference between a profitable trade and a losing one. Many traders struggle with this decision, often holding onto winning trades for too long or cutting their losses too early. The key to successful trading lies in mastering the timing of closing trades.
          In this article, we'll explore various strategies, indicators, and techniques to help you decide when to close a trade, so you can maximize profits and minimize losses.

          The Importance of Timing in Trade Exits

          The exit strategy is just as important as the entry strategy. Even if you enter a trade with the perfect setup, if you don’t know when to exit, you could end up losing your gains or worsening your losses. Properly timed exits allow you to:
          Lock in profits before the market reverses.
          Avoid significant losses by cutting losing trades early.
          Free up capital for new opportunities.
          Maintain discipline and emotional control during volatile market conditions.
          Factors to Consider When Closing a Trade
          There are several factors that should influence your decision to close a trade, whether you’re looking to secure profits or limit losses. Below are the most important elements to consider:

          1. Predefined Profit Targets

          One of the simplest and most effective ways to know when to close a trade is by setting predefined profit targets. When you enter a trade, you should have a clear idea of where you want the price to go. This target is typically based on factors like:
          Technical analysis: Resistance levels, chart patterns (such as head and shoulders or double top), and Fibonacci retracement levels can help define profit targets.
          Risk-reward ratio: A good rule of thumb is to aim for a minimum risk-to-reward ratio of 1:2, meaning you’re willing to risk $1 to make $2.
          By setting a specific price target before entering the trade, you avoid making emotional decisions and increase the likelihood of closing your trade at a favorable point.

          2. Trailing Stop Losses

          While having a profit target is important, market conditions can change quickly. A trailing stop loss is a great tool to secure profits while giving your trade room to move in your favor.
          A trailing stop is a dynamic stop loss that adjusts as the price moves in your favor. For example, if you enter a long trade at $100 and set a trailing stop at $5, the stop loss will follow the price upward, locking in profits as the price increases. If the price reverses by $5, the trailing stop will trigger, and your position will be closed automatically.
          This strategy is ideal for capturing larger trends and protecting profits as the market moves in your favor.

          3. Risk Management and Stop Loss Levels

          Many traders make the mistake of not having a proper risk management plan, which can lead to large losses. Setting a stop loss is crucial for limiting potential downside. The stop loss should be placed at a level where the trade becomes invalid or where you’re no longer comfortable with the position.
          Stop losses can be determined based on:
          Technical levels: Support or resistance levels, moving averages, or pivot points.
          Volatility: If the market is highly volatile, you may want to set a wider stop loss to account for normal price fluctuations. Conversely, in a calm market, a tighter stop loss may be appropriate.
          By using stop losses effectively, you can limit your risk on each trade and avoid unnecessary losses if the market turns against you.

          4. Price Action and Market Sentiment

          Monitoring price action and understanding market sentiment can also help you determine when to close a trade. Here’s how:
          Candlestick Patterns: Look for reversal patterns such as Doji, Engulfing, or Shooting Star candlesticks. These formations can signal that the market is about to change direction.
          Overbought or Oversold Conditions: Use technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) or Stochastic Oscillator to assess whether the market is overbought or oversold. An RSI above 70 or below 30 suggests that the price may soon reverse.
          Volume Analysis: Pay attention to volume patterns. A price movement accompanied by low volume may not be sustainable, signaling that it may be a good time to exit. Conversely, an increase in volume during an uptrend can signal that the trend is gaining strength.

          5. Time-Based Exits

          Some traders choose to close their trades based on time rather than price levels. For example, you might decide to close your trade at the end of the trading day, regardless of whether you’ve hit your profit target or stop loss. This is known as time-based trading.
          Time-based exits can be particularly effective in intraday trading (such as day trading or scalping), where trades are opened and closed within the same session. This strategy helps avoid holding positions overnight, where the risk of market gaps or news-driven events can impact your positions.

          When to Close a Losing Trade

          While closing winning trades is important, knowing when to cut your losses is just as crucial. Here are several indicators that it might be time to close a losing trade:
          Stop Loss is Hit: If your stop loss level is reached, you should exit the trade to limit your losses. This is a key risk management technique.
          Trend Reversal: If the market trend begins to shift against your trade (for example, in forex, a change in currency pair behavior), it might be time to exit.
          Psychological Stress: Trading can be emotional, and sometimes the best decision is to close a trade to avoid the psychological strain of watching a losing position. If you’re feeling stressed or anxious, it’s better to exit and preserve your mental capital.
          News or Events Impacting the Market: If unexpected news or an economic event occurs that may impact the market significantly, it might be wise to exit the trade, especially if you're uncertain about the direction.

          How to Avoid Prematurely Closing a Trade

          While knowing when to close a trade is essential, it’s also important not to close too early. Prematurely exiting a trade can result in missing out on profits. To avoid this:
          Stick to your predefined exit plan and avoid emotional decisions.
          Don’t overreact to short-term price fluctuations.
          Use risk-reward ratios to ensure you’re giving trades a fair chance to reach their targets.

          Conclusion

          Knowing when to close a trade is a crucial skill that every trader must develop. By using a combination of predefined profit targets, trailing stop losses, proper risk management, and analyzing price action and market sentiment, you can increase your chances of making well-timed exits that maximize profits and minimize losses.
          The key is to plan ahead and remain disciplined throughout your trading journey. Whether you're closing a winning trade or cutting losses, having a solid exit strategy can help you maintain a consistent and profitable trading performance.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat

          PIIE

          Economic

          BERKELEY – In 1919, John Maynard Keynes famously declared, “There is no subtler, no surer means of overturning the existing basis of society than to debauch the currency.” Keynes attributed this insight to Bolshevik leader Vladimir Lenin, who argued that currency debasement was the “best way to destroy the capitalist system.”
          Recent events offer a painful reminder of Keynes’s prescience. The 2021-23 inflation surge in the United States, though mild compared to the aftermath of World War I, was enough to spark widespread voter frustration and anger. The outcome is unified Republican control of the White House and Congress under a president-elect who, just four years ago, tried to overturn his own electoral defeat.
          Now, Donald Trump’s second administration is poised to introduce radical economic-policy changes. While these measures could have far-reaching consequences, many voters may not realize what they are in for.

          PLAYING WITH FIRE

          With the election having given the Republicans a political trifecta, some soon-to-be-empowered Trump supporters appear eager to risk higher inflation. Three components of Trump’s economic agenda, in particular, pose a threat to US price stability: limits on the independence and authority of the Federal Reserve; extensive tax cuts despite massive federal budget deficits and debt (and reliance on magical thinking to maintain fiscal sustainability); and the integration of lightly regulated cryptocurrencies into America’s financial and fiscal systems.
          These policies complement each other. Trump’s bid to gain greater influence over Fed decisions, for example, is tied to his plan to ease cryptocurrency regulations and explore ways to pay off the national debt with digital coins.
          Techno-libertarians like Elon Musk often view the Fed’s ability to print money as a dangerous concentration of government power that enables massive federal budget deficits. Instead, they advocate a system of “sound money” based on potentially competing decentralized cryptocurrencies. This approach, combined with deregulation-fueled economic growth and impractically large cuts to government spending (Musk claims that $2 trillion can be cut), would ostensibly eliminate fiscal profligacy.
          Let’s start with the Fed. Some critics blame the surge in US inflation on monetary policy, accusing the Fed of destabilizing prices through unchecked money printing to finance federal budget deficits. But this narrative is at odds with reality. The Fed exemplifies modern best practices in monetary policy, targeting low inflation while maintaining independence from political pressures, including those related to public deficits. Although this model has been immensely successful and adopted worldwide, Trump and his allies are seeking to undermine it by curtailing the Fed’s independence and authority.
          Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat_1
          The chart shows global and US consumer-price inflation rates since 1980, revealing several key trends. A significant reduction in worldwide inflation followed the introduction and widespread adoption of central-bank independence beginning in the late 1980s. Advanced-economy central banks, adhering to similar best practices in monetary policy, have generally maintained inflation rates close to their target of around 2%. In other words, contrary to detractors’ claims about the Fed’s excessive monetary largesse, the US is not an outlier.
          In fact, four decades of data show that the 2021-23 inflation spike was the outlier. It affected all countries exposed to the extraordinary shocks of the post-pandemic economic reopening, unleashed pent-up demand, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. By 2024, however, inflation had nearly returned to target levels without triggering significant increases in unemployment.
          Moreover, the notion that the Fed bankrolls US budget deficits by printing money for the Treasury to spend is pure fiction. In normal times, the Fed controls inflation through its policy interest rate, raising it to push inflation down when necessary and lowering it when the economy is weak and inflation is subdued. By closely following this approach – independent of political considerations – the Fed fosters an environment that encourages market actors to expect moderate long-term inflation and adjust prices accordingly. The result is a virtuous cycle of price stability.
          What role, then, does money creation play in this system? Based on the interest rate it sets, the Fed simply adjusts the money supply to align with market demand, creating or withdrawing cash as needed.
          The success of central banks over the past four decades stems directly from the independence that domestic critics of US monetary policy seek to strip from the Fed. Market confidence, built over decades of strong performance by professional and independent central banks, stabilized inflation expectations during the recent price surge, allowing inflation to fall rapidly toward target levels without causing a global recession.
          Far from enabling fiscal deficits by keeping borrowing costs low, many central-bank leaders have consistently emphasized the importance of fiscal consolidation and maintained appropriately restrictive interest rates, even in the face of high public deficits. In this era of economic turmoil, it is the central banks – not the politicians – that have served as the “adults in the room.”

          FISCAL PRESSURES AND CRACKPOT SOLUTIONS

          Similarly, the claim that the Fed is responsible for US fiscal deficits gets things exactly backward. In reality, the larger fiscal deficits implied by Trump’s proposed tax cuts pose a real danger to the Fed’s independence and represent the second threat to price stability.
          The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates that Trump’s proposals would increase the federal deficit by nearly $7.8 trillion between 2026 and 2035, even after factoring in projections of increased tariff revenues. This increase would add to a deficit and national debt that are already at historic highs. If Trump successfully pressures the Fed to adopt his well-known preference for low interest rates, the money-printing myth could graduate from fiction to fact.
          The antidote to fiscal recklessness is not to undermine the Fed. It is for the political branches of government to recognize the unsustainable trajectory of US fiscal policy, avoid exacerbating it, and pursue sensible tax and spending reforms. Regrettably, some in Congress – seemingly with Trump’s backing – are instead championing the embrace of cryptocurrency schemes that could weaken the Fed, boost the national debt, and destabilize financial markets. In October 2024, the Trump family launched its own cryptocurrency venture, World Liberty Financial, and began marketing tokens – so Trump’s financial self-interest, like that of some of his allies, is aligned with a crypto-friendly policy approach.
          While political meddling in monetary policy and fiscal excess have long threatened price stability, this third component of Trump’s inflationary triple threat is unprecedented. The fundamental problem is that most cryptocurrencies, aside from stablecoins, are disconnected from the real economy and operate beyond the reach of public policy. Consequently, they introduce significant uncertainty into financial transactions, making them an unreliable foundation for economic decisions. Even stablecoins are only as good as the assets backing them.
          Despite the numerous risks posed by an unregulated cryptosphere, its advocates continue to misrepresent the Fed’s solid track record to promote their agenda. Republican Senator Mike Lee, for example, has characterized the US dollar as “unstable,” owing to its alleged role in enabling the federal deficit, and has introduced legislation to prohibit the Fed from launching its own digital currency. If enacted, the prohibition would leave more room for unregulated cryptocurrencies, potentially facilitating illicit activities such as money laundering and terrorist financing. By providing alternative means of exchange, these cryptocurrencies could also diminish the Fed’s influence over the economy.
          Likewise, Republican Senator Cynthia Lummis has cited “soaring inflation rates” and the national debt to justify her proposal to establish a “strategic Bitcoin reserve.” In her bill, Lummis claims that such a reserve would benefit the US government’s balance sheet, touting Bitcoin’s “resilience, widespread adoption,” and its role as a “medium of exchange and a store of value for more than a decade.”
          Under Lummis’s plan, a reserve of one million Bitcoins would be dedicated to reducing the US national debt. The cost of acquiring cryptocurrencies, she claims, would be offset by “utilizing certain resources of the Federal Reserve System,” offering few specifics. What is clear, though, is that this plan would undermine the Fed’s balance sheet, limit its effectiveness, and expose American taxpayers to significant losses if and when the bet on Bitcoin fails.
          The charts below show the extreme volatility of cryptocurrencies like Ethereum and Bitcoin compared to the supposedly “unstable” dollar and even to the more volatile S&P 500. Given their unpredictability, granting cryptocurrencies major monetary or financial roles would not enhance price or employment stability. On the contrary, it would almost certainly lead to greater instability. Integrating cryptocurrencies into the US financial system without stringent regulatory oversight is a surefire recipe for crises, recessions, massive government bailouts, and even larger public debts.
          Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat_2
          Trump’s Inflationary Triple Threat_3

          CASINO AMERICA

          Despite these risks, Trump has endorsed Lee’s proposal to bar the Fed from launching a digital currency and supports the creation of a national Bitcoin reserve to purchase government debt. He has also vowed to loosen regulations to make the US “the crypto capital of the planet.” After all, what could go wrong with knee-capping the Fed while making the US financial system more like a casino?
          To be sure, central banks are not perfect. Most advanced-economy central banks were slow to address the recent surge of inflation, waiting until 2022 to begin raising interest rates. By contrast, their counterparts in emerging markets acted earlier, stabilizing inflation expectations and benefiting from doing so before the Russia-Ukraine war intensified economic pressures.
          Nevertheless, the decades-long track record of independent, inflation-targeting central banks is undeniably impressive, especially compared to what came before. This success explains why the model has become the global standard and why countries that eschew it, such as Argentina and Turkey, continue to grapple with high and persistent inflation.
          The incoming Trump administration has pledged to pursue a series of inflationary macroeconomic and trade policies, including massive tax cuts, steep import tariffs, and mass deportations. In the face of such potentially destabilizing actions, the Fed’s credibility and robust oversight of financial markets are more critical than ever, yet both are now at serious risk.
          More than a century ago, Keynes observed that during periods of high inflation, “all permanent relations between debtors and creditors, which form the ultimate foundation of capitalism, become so utterly disordered as to be almost meaningless,” reducing the “process of wealth-getting” to “a gamble and a lottery.” Those words have never been more apt.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
          Risk Warnings and Disclaimers
          You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.
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          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries

          Bruegel

          Economic

          One consequence of a major reform of the European Union’s emissions trading system in 2023 is that energy-intensive industries (EIIs) will ultimately be exposed fully to carbon pricing. In theory EIIs are subject to carbon pricing already but in practice they have received free allowances to shield them from the carbon price and protect them against foreign competition that is not subject to carbon pricing (and to prevent so-called ‘carbon leakage’ ). Free allowances allocated to many industrial sites consistently exceeded emissions during the third phase of the ETS (2013-2020), creating market distortions (De Bruyn et al, 2021).
          The 2023 ETS reform thus plugs a loophole. However, some issues remain to be dealt with, including the treatment of EU exporters, the sectoral coverage of carbon pricing and the geographical misallocation of subsidies. This analysis discusses these challenges and suggests further steps that might be taken to ensure fair competition among EIIs within the EU and globally.

          Industrial emissions and free allowances

          We focus on three energy-intensive sectors – chemicals, basic metals and non-metallic minerals (ceramics, glass and cement) – that emit around 70 percent of industrial emissions covered by the ETS, while accounting for about 13 percent of EU manufacturing GDP (Figure 1; Sgaravatti et al, 2023) .
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_1
          Between 2013 and 2023, all ETS emissions fell by 36 percent, led by a 44 percent reduction in the power sector, while industrial emissions declined by just 17 percent. The slower progress in cutting industrial emissions can be attributed partly to free carbon allowances given to EIIs – a benefit the power sector does not receive (Figure 2).
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_2
          Because EIIs have received generous allocations of free allowances, a huge surplus has built up. Some excess allowances were sold, effectively acting as an industrial subsidy. For example, from 2008-2019, the cement sector gained up to €3 billion in extra profits because of over-allocation (de Bruyn et al, 2021). Moreover, as companies started to price-in the ETS price, they benefitted from windfall profits off the back of the free allowances.
          Being shielded from the ETS carbon price meant EIIs had less of an incentive to decarbonise production, limiting their green investments in the past decade (2011-2020) to €7 billion per year on average (European Commission, 2024). From 2031-2040, decarbonising industrial production will require investment estimated at €46 billion per year (European Commission, 2024). More than 60 percent of this investment will be concentrated in chemicals, basic metals and non-metallic minerals (Table 1).
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_3
          Financing such investment could prove difficult if the current squeeze on EII profit margins, caused by high energy prices in Europe (Bijnens et al, 2024), continues.

          Three remaining carbon pricing loopholes

          Export competitiveness
          The 2023 ETS reform reduces free allowances for some of the main products in the categories of basic metals (steel and aluminium), non-metallic minerals (cement) and chemicals (fertilisers and hydrogen). From 90 percent of their emissions in 2028, coverage by free allowances will fall to zero by 2034. Separately, from 2026, the EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAM) will levy a carbon charge on imports of these products, to prevent carbon leakage.
          EU exporters, however, will continue to compete on foreign markets with commodities not subject to carbon prices. EU exporters have thus called for an export carbon price rebate scheme. The annual cost of this could reach, by 2034, €4 billion for iron and steel and €7 billion overall (Table 2).
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_4
          The European Commission has ruled out export rebates, fearing they would undermine the EU’s climate goals and would risk conflicts with major trade partners. While this decision may be justified (Bellora and Fontagné, 2022), it does not address the issue of carbon leakage for EU exporters.
          Sectoral coverage
          Another issue is sectoral coverage and the risk of downstream carbon leakage. Since CBAM covers only certain categories of products, producers might relocate outside the EU and export into the EU products further down the value chain that are not subject to CBAM (eg machinery made of steel and aluminium). The risk varies greatly depending on the product. For example, green steel increases the final price of cars by just 2 percent (Dantuma et al, 2023), some plastics could see much higher price increases. We estimate that the price of the most common type of plastic, polyethylene, could increase by about 8 percent, for example .
          Geographical misallocation of subsidies within the EU
          Increased reliance on electricity to decarbonise production processes may shift investments from current EU industrial hubs to regions where electricity is cheaper because of the presence of renewable resources (such as hydro, wind and solar). Current electricity price disparities (Figure 3) favour Scandinavia and the Iberian Peninsula over central and eastern Europe, where most industrial production is located. As EIIs will be increasingly exposed to carbon pricing, governments might engage in subsidy races to retain incumbents, distorting the single market and nullifying the potential benefits of industrial reallocation – ie cheaper products for EU consumers, and more competitive firms on the global stage.
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_5
          Most green industrial subsidies are allocated at the national level, with the EU role limited to evaluating state aid applications.

          Potential policy responses

          While there are no easy fixes to the three challenges detailed above, they could be greatly mitigated by: prioritising public support for exporters, promoting carbon pricing and sectorial decarbonisation agreements globally, improving consistency in state aid, and pooling subsidies at EU level. We deal with each in turn.

          Support for exporters

          Exporters tend to be more productive than non-exporters (Wagner, 2007), so failing to address carbon leakage for exports could further harm EU industrial competitiveness. The EU could prioritise exporters in competitive bidding and grants for green subsidies, therefore offsetting the disadvantage they face globally, while supporting productive firms.
          This could be done either through competitive bidding opened only to exporters, or by introducing qualifying premia for exporters in open auctions. Decarbonisation subsidies could target both capital costs and operating costs. The approach followed by the EU Hydrogen Bank , which subsidises only the additional costs required to make green hydrogen competitive (Kneebone and McWilliams, 2024), could be copied and adapted to specifically support EII exporters. However, operating cost subsidies should come with strict conditions and be time-limited, as they can disrupt the ETS, which is designed to ensure emissions reductions occur where costs are lowest. If not carefully managed, such subsidies could also place a heavy burden on public finances.
          Additionally, lessons from the successful streamlining of permitting processes for renewable energy projects in designated areas could be applied to accelerate electrification in EII clusters focused on exports. Simplifying grid connection and permitting in these clusters would reduce delays and support faster decarbonisation.

          Global persuasion

          Among the major destination countries for EU CBAM exports (almost 80 percent of total value, Figure 4), several have introduced or are introducing carbon markets. The United Kingdom has its own ETS, Switzerland has linked its ETS with the EU, Norway is part of the EU ETS, China is expanding its national ETS to include EIIs, and Turkey, Mexico, Brazil and India are exploring carbon pricing systems. Canada has an advanced carbon market and Serbia and Ukraine are EU candidates, which implies a path of full convergence with EU rules, ETS compliance included.
          How to Fill the Remaining Gaps in Pricing the Emissions of the EU’s Energy-intensive Industries_6
          Though far from an easy diplomatic endeavour, advancing carbon pricing across the world seems to be a much better strategy than export rebates because it promotes the most promising tool for mitigating emissions, does not raise compatibility issues with World Trade Organisation rules, and leaves the incentive to decarbonise intact, including for EU exporters. Moreover, expanding carbon pricing globally reduces the risk of downstream carbon leakage.
          A similar and complementary approach would be sectoral decarbonisation agreements, such as the Global Arrangement on Sustainable Steel and Aluminium (GASSA), creating carbon clubs for some EIIs. Finalising GASSA is particularly important given the importance of the United States as a destination market for EU aluminium and iron and steel exports, and the very remote prospect of full carbon pricing in the US.

          Consistency in state aid

          The EU should harmonise across countries the support given to energy-intensive firms to compensate them for higher electricity costs related to carbon pricing. Such support benefits currently from streamlined approval under state aid rules. Governments can use up to 25 percent of their national ETS revenues for this form of compensation. The EU could also introduce a floor level across all countries with considerable EII clusters, limiting the distortions by which EIIs in some countries receive much more compensation than in others. Conditions that have been introduced for this type of support, including energy efficiency measures and greening of production processes, make it more appealing and could justify its use to a greater extent than so far.
          EU countries should also make more use of the top-up option for EU industrial subsidies, contributing their own financial resources . While this approach falls short of maximising efficiency (as funds are still earmarked on a national basis), it would be a great improvement on national auctions, by applying uniform allocation criteria and reducing administrative work by avoiding duplication across EU countries (Poitiers et al, 2024).

          Pooling subsidies

          In the medium term, moving to EU single-market mechanisms for subsidies would boost productivity and increase added value. Coordinated subsidies could increase power-sector productivity in Germany, France, Italy and Spain by 30 percent, closing 83 percent of the productivity gap with the United States and increasing added value by 6.7 percent (Altomonte and Presidente, 2024).
          The European Commission has proposed increasing EU budget resources by withholding 30 percent of ETS revenues (European Commission, 2023). In 2023 the ETS raised €43 billion and by 2028 it could reach €65 billion (Saint-Amans, 2024) , compared to the overall green industrial investment needs of €46 billion per year. If the Commission’s proposal is accepted, it would mean additional EU budget revenues of €10 billion to €20 billion per year that could support industrial greening.
          To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar
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