Gold Breaches $4400/oz, Silver Up 2.75%, Nikkei Rises 1.9% & FTSE 100 Eyes Short-Term Pullback

MarketPulse by OANDA Group

Forex

Stocks

Commodity

Summary:

Stock markets around the world are rising as investors feel optimistic about a strong finish to the year, encouraged by recent gains in the US.

Asia Market Wrap – Nikkei Rises 1.9% as Global Equities Rise

Stock markets around the world are rising as investors feel optimistic about a strong finish to the year, encouraged by recent gains in the US.A key index that tracks global stocks has gone up for three days in a row, reaching its highest level since mid-December, and is predicted to grow nearly 20% in 2025.

In Asia, Japan's Nikkei climbed 1.9% because a cheaper currency is expected to help companies that sell goods abroad make more money. Similarly, Chinese stocks saw gains, while Singapore's market reached a new record high.

European Session – European Shares On Course to Open Lower

European stock markets are expected to open with small losses on Monday, pausing after last week's rally as trading slows down for the short Christmas holiday week.

Even with lighter trading activity expected, investor confidence remains high due to renewed excitement about AI companies and hopes that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next year. Traders are also less worried about the European Central Bank raising rates in the future.

However, there is still some caution as investors watch the war in Ukraine, following comments from Russia that recent peace proposals haven't improved the situation. In economic news, the UK is set to release its final growth figures later today, while early trading shows major European indexes down by roughly 0.1% to 0.2%.

On the FX front, the Japanese yen remained very weak on Monday, hovering near record lows against the Euro and Swiss Franc.

Traders feel confident betting against the yen because the Bank of Japan hasn't signaled any plans to raise interest rates, even though government officials have warned they might step in to support the currency.

The yen also sat near an 11-month low against the US dollar and a 17-month low against the Australian dollar. While the US dollar dipped slightly to 157.37 yen, it remains close to recent highs.

Meanwhile, the Swiss franc reached a new record against the yen, and the Australian dollar climbed to its strongest level since last July.

Currency Power Balance

Source: OANDA Labs

Silver was the standout performer in commodities, hitting a new record high of $69.44/oz, which brings its total gains for the year to nearly 140%. Gold also increased in value, rising 1.5% to breach $4400/oz.

In the energy market, oil prices went up after the US stopped a Venezuelan oil tanker and began chasing another, marking the third such incident in under two weeks. As a result, Brent crude rose 0.8% to $60.96 a barrel, and US crude increased by the same percentage to $56.99 a barrel.

Economic Calendar and Final Thoughts

It is a quiet day on the calendar for European data releases but there are a few ECB policymakers who will be speaking during the session.

The US session is equally quiet from a data perspective with Canadian PPI the only major data release during the session. Markets may focus on rising geopolitical risk as the US ramps up pressure on Venezuela.

For all market-moving economic releases and events, see the MarketPulse Economic Calendar. (click to enlarge)

Chart of the Day – FTSE 100

From a technical standpoint, the FTSE 100 index is eyeing a pullback this morning.

However, given the mood around global equity futures in the Asian session, i wonder whether such a move will prove sustainable?

The index is approaching support at the 9850-9860 area with a break below opening up a deeper correction toward the 9800 and 9760 support areas.

The period-14 RSI does remain comfortably above the 50 neutral level which hints at bullish momentum remaining strong at the present time.

FTSE 100 Index Daily Chart, December 22. 2025

Source: TradingView.com (click to enlarge)

Source: MarketPulse by OANDA Group

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets Prime Minister of New Zealand Christopher Luxon at Hyderabad House in New Delhi on March 17, 2025.

The trade pact, which will be reviewed after one year, will be signed in the first half of next year.

"This historic agreement eliminates and reduces tariffs on 95% of New Zealand's exports," New Zealand Trade and Investment Minister Todd McClay said in a statement, adding that nearly 57% of exports from the country will become duty-free in India "from day one."

The pacific island nation will also invest $20 billion in India over next 15 years and allow mobility of professionals, skilled labor and students from India to New Zealand, according to a statement from India.

India has also secured a "zero duty market" on all its exports to New Zealand that includes textiles, apparel, leather, footwear, marine products, gems and jewelry, handicrafts, engineering goods and automobiles.

"Today this Free Trade Agreement is about building trade around people and launching opportunities," India's Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal said.

The deal will give Indian businesses and youth an opportunity to "learn, work and grow on a global stage," he added.

India will eliminate tariff on sheep meat, wool, coal and nearly all of forestry and wood exports. New Delhi will also allow duty-free access for dairy and other food ingredients for re-exports.

However, to ensure protection to farmers and the domestic industry, New Delhi has said the market access excludes dairy, coffee, milk, cream, cheese, yoghurts, whey, caseins, onions, sugar, spices, edible oils, rubber.

India's trade pact with New Zealand "provides policy certainty and lowers input costs for manufacturing, creating a vision for long-term economic resilience," said Ranjeet Mehta, chief executive officer and secretary general, of Indian industry body PHDCCI.

Bilateral merchandise trade between the two countries stood at $1.3 billion in 2024–25 while total trade in goods and services was $2.4 billion in 2024. "The FTA provides a stable and predictable framework to unlock the full potential of this relationship," India's commerce ministry said.

The FTA marks India's third deal this year following a free trade agreement with the UK in July and another pact with Oman earlier this month.

The deals comes at a time when the U.S., New Delhi's largest trading partner, has levied 50% tariffs on its goods exports, that includes 25% duties for India's purchases of Russian oil.

India, which has ambitions to become an export powerhouse, has been looking to diversify its exports to make up for the impact of U.S. tariffs.

Source: CNBC

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Winkelmann

Forex

Commodity

The Fed's interest rate cut continues to support gold. XAUUSD has updated its all-time high and is trading near the 4,395 USD level.

XAUUSD forecast: key takeaways

· XAUUSD price has updated its historical maximum

· Current trend: moving upwards

· XAUUSD forecast for 22 December 2025: 4,450 or 4,340

Fundamental analysis

The forecast for XAUUSD today indicates that gold prices continue to follow an upward trend. At this stage, quotes have updated their all-time high and are trading around 4,395 USD per ounce.

Factors driving XAUUSD higher:

· Gold prices rose following the Fed's interest rate cut. Expectations of further rate reductions by the US Federal Reserve are strengthening, and against this backdrop the USD continues to lose ground

· Pressure on the US dollar further supports gold, making it more attractive for foreign buyers and reinforcing its value as a safe-haven asset

· Amid market uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical risks, precious metals are becoming increasingly attractive to investors

· Central banks continue to build up gold reserves, while expectations of monetary easing by the Fed and sustained structural demand create a solid foundation for potentially persistently high gold prices in 2026

The upside potential for XAUUSD remains high. Weak US economic indicators continue to weigh on the USD and support higher gold prices.

XAUUSD technical analysis

On the H4 chart, XAUUSD formed a Hammer reversal pattern near the middle Bollinger Band. At this stage, the price continues its upward wave as part of the pattern's realization. Given that XAUUSD quotes remain within an ascending channel, the next upside target may be the 4,450 USD level.

At the same time, today's technical analysis of XAUUSD also considers an alternative scenario, which includes a corrective pullback toward the 4,340 USD level before renewed growth.

The possibility of further upside remains in place, and in the near term XAUUSD prices may move toward the next psychological level at 4,500 USD.

Summary

The XAUUSD forecast for December 22, 2025 is fully bullish for gold. Technical analysis suggests further price growth toward the 4,450 USD level.

EURUSD 2026-2027 forecast: key market trends and future predictions

This article provides the EURUSD forecast for 2026 and 2027 and highlights the main factors determining the direction of the pair's movements. We will apply technical analysis, take into account the opinions of leading experts, large banks, and financial institutions, and study AI-based forecasts. This comprehensive insight into EURUSD predictions should help investors and traders make informed decisions.

Gold (XAUUSD) forecast 2026 and beyond: expert insights, price predictions, and analysis

Dive deep into the Gold (XAUUSD) price outlook for 2026 and beyond, combining technical analysis, expert forecasts, and key macroeconomic factors. It explains the drivers behind gold's recent surge, explores potential scenarios including a move toward 4,500 to 5,000 USD per ounce, and highlights why the metal remains a strong hedge during global uncertainty.

Source: RoboForex

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Swissquote

Political

Stocks

Friday's rally in technology stocks came as a much-needed relief for global financial markets and was sparked by a single, straightforward piece of news: Oracle will host TikTok's US user data under a new US–China arrangement that allows the app to continue operating in the United States. The deal is yet to be approved.

But if it does, under the deal, Oracle will store and secure US user data on its cloud infrastructure and help oversee cybersecurity and algorithm-safety measures. It is a big responsibility given that roughly half of the US population uses TikTok. In return, Oracle is expected to take a meaningful equity stake of around 15% in the newly structured US TikTok business, while the broader investor consortium secures majority control. But above all, Oracle gains – with this deal – a strategic foothold in a high-growth digital platform via its cloud services — and that's a golden narrative for its growth profile.

Oracle shares rebounded more than 6% on Friday, after having fallen over 45% from their September peak. The rally spread across the broader AI and tech complex, as investors reassessed the monetisation potential of data-centre infrastructure and computing power. Nvidia rose nearly 4%, while the Nasdaq gained 1.3%, reclaiming its 50-day moving average.

That said, the pressure on tech stocks is unlikely to be over. First, the TikTok deal remains modest relative to the scale of Oracle's business, its heavy debt load and ongoing investment needs. On its own, it is unlikely to reverse the recent deterioration in appetite for leveraged debt, nor does it fully answer the question of how revenues will grow fast enough to justify rising leverage and capital spending.

Second, developments in China highlight how quickly competitive dynamics can shift. Chinese chipmaker Moore Threads, founded by a former Nvidia executive and recently listed, announced plans to release new AI chips aimed at competing with Nvidia's Hopper-generation products. The company claims its upcoming chips rival Nvidia's H20 and H200, and narrow the gap with the Nvidia's next-generation Blackwell platform. This is an important development in the context of the US–China chip war.

Only weeks ago, Nvidia received approval to resume sales of its H200 chips to China, at a time when those chips were widely seen as being well ahead of domestic Chinese alternatives. Moore Threads now says it could begin producing these chips as early as next year and claims energy-efficiency gains of up to 10× versus its own previous GPU generation. If realised, this would reduce Chinese buyers' dependence on Nvidia hardware — particularly as Beijing weighs how much to encourage domestic alternatives. The closer Chinese chips move toward US peers in performance and efficiency, the stronger the incentive for state support.

Still, several red flags remain. First, designing advanced chips is one challenge; manufacturing them at scale is another. Moore Threads cannot go to TSMC after being placed on the US Entity List in 2023, meaning it must turn to domestic foundries. SMIC, China's leading chip manufacturer, has the capability to produce such chips using the country's most advanced available processes, but those technologies remain one to two generations behind TSMC, implying potential limits on performance, yields and efficiency. Second, much of the AI ecosystem is built around Nvidia's software stack, and switching to Moore Threads' platform would involve transition costs, integration challenges and reliability risks that are yet to be fully tested.

Nevertheless, if Beijing decides this is the strategic path forward, Chinese companies may ultimately have little choice but to adapt. On Monday, Moore Threads shares rose 1.9% in Shanghai, while SMIC gained more than 6% in Hong Kong.

The broader message is clear: China has not said its last word in the global tech race.

Elsewhere in Asia, tech-heavy indices started the week higher. South Korea's Kospi gained more than 2%, while Japan's Nikkei initially advanced before giving back gains amid a sharp sell-off in Japanese government bonds that briefly pushed the 10-year yield to 2.10%. The USDJPY retreated as Japanese officials warned that positioning against the yen remains heavy and one-sided, reviving the risk of intervention — even if such action would not necessarily reverse the broader trend.

The yen's strength weighed on the US dollar, while gold surged to a fresh all-time high above $4'400 per ounce, supported by rising geopolitical tensions involving the US and Venezuela. Oil prices also moved higher, with WTI crude above $57pb and Brent clearing $60pb, though the move may prove short-lived.

Looking ahead, the week will be shortened by the Christmas holiday in Western markets. Before liquidity fades, the US will release its latest GDP update, expected to confirm 3.2% growth in Q3, alongside signs that price pressures may have firmed.

After that, markets are likely to slow as investors head into year-end mode.

Source: Swissquote Bank SA

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

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Gerik

Economic

Value-Driven Transformation Powers Export Record

Vietnam’s agricultural sector closed 2025 on a high note, with total exports projected to reach nearly $70 billion far surpassing the government’s $65 billion target. This record marks not only quantitative success but also a qualitative shift in strategy. Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Environment Phùng Đức Tiến noted that in the first 11 months alone, export turnover hit $64.01 billion. If December performs on par with recent months, the final figure will cement a new historic high.

This surge underscores a broader transformation: key industries are moving away from traditional volume-based growth toward value-added development. The results are evident across core export categories such as coffee, fruits, seafood, and timber products, where a mix of technological innovation, international compliance, and market expansion strategies have reshaped Vietnam’s agricultural export profile.

Coffee Leads with High Value Despite Stable Volume

Coffee was the standout performer of 2025. For the first time, Vietnam’s coffee export value exceeded $8 billion, despite a stable output of approximately 1.5 million tonnes. The average export price rose by around 40% year-on-year, highlighting a clear shift toward value enhancement rather than volume scaling. This indicates a causal relationship between quality improvements and revenue expansion, as global buyers responded positively to premium-grade offerings and processed coffee products.

Robusta continues to be the backbone of Vietnam’s coffee trade due to its scale and reliability, while processed coffee exports saw rapid growth, validating national efforts to deepen participation in the global value chain. In major growing regions like Đắk Lắk, Gia Lai, Lâm Đồng, and Quảng Ngãi, smart farming practices and digital traceability systems are helping producers meet increasingly rigorous international standards.

Seafood Sector Capitalizes on Trade Timing and Regulatory Readiness

Vietnam’s seafood industry also reached new heights, with 2025 exports expected to total between $11.2 and $11.3 billion, according to VASEP. November alone recorded nearly $990 million in shipments, up 6.6% year-on-year. Exporters took advantage of favorable trade windows, particularly ahead of stricter U.S. import regulations and ongoing anti-dumping litigation involving shrimp.

Shrimp exports are forecast to break through the $4.6 billion mark, setting a new benchmark. Pangasius catfish exports are estimated at over $2.1 billion, buoyed by renewed demand from China and other Asian markets. Tuna exports are also nearing $1 billion. These achievements reflect the sector’s ability to align export timing with policy cycles and market readiness.

However, 2026 poses new regulatory hurdles, particularly from the U.S., requiring transparency in supply chains, compliance with labor standards, and prevention of IUU (Illegal, Unreported, and Unregulated) fishing. This will force a shift from cost-based competition to value-based resilience.

Fruit Exports Surpass Ambitious Goals Thanks to Durian Surge

Vietnam’s fruit and vegetable exports far exceeded expectations in 2025. Initially targeting $5 billion in exports, the sector is now projected to reach $8.5 billion a nearly 20% year-on-year increase. Durian was the star performer, benefiting immensely from formalized trade routes into China. Although technical barriers from China and tariff pressures from the U.S. created headwinds early in the year, flexible policymaking and enterprise-level adaptability helped reverse the trend.

Vietnam’s success in fruit exports is also tied to market access breakthroughs. Five new protocols were signed with China, enabling official exports of passion fruit, fresh jackfruit, and others. Additionally, fresh pomelo gained entry into the Australian market. According to Vinafruit, these developments not only generated immediate revenue but also compelled farmers to embrace food safety, traceability, and quality compliance.

Timber Industry Lays Foundation for $25 Billion Goal

Forestry products continued to form a critical pillar of the export economy. While the 2025 performance was not quantified in the same granular detail, the sector’s long-term strategy remains clear: to reach $25 billion in exports by 2030. To achieve this, stakeholders are focusing on three main pillars: a tightly integrated supply ecosystem, national branding for Vietnamese wood products, and diversified export markets.

According to the Vietnam Timber and Forest Products Association, building a resilient and green supply chain will require investment in technology, sustainability practices, and workforce development. The sector is also moving toward greater brand identity through a model built on four strategic themes: sustainability, quality, adaptability, and competitiveness.

Policy Support and Global Integration Drive Momentum

The 2025 export record is closely tied to proactive policy execution. Authorities have promoted market access, expanded trade diplomacy, and facilitated technical upgrades across sectors. These include tax and tariff management, environmental compliance, and digital innovation for monitoring and certification.

Looking ahead to 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment aims to consolidate gains through improved domestic market development and external market diversification. Plans include new scientific research, updated regulatory frameworks, and increased financial and technical support for businesses entering high-demand export segments.

Vietnam’s agri-forestry-fishery exports in 2025 reflect not only a numerical milestone but a deeper transition toward a value-oriented, innovation-driven economy. The rise in export revenue achieved amid global volatility demonstrates Vietnam’s increasing competitiveness in premium markets and its ability to adapt to stricter international standards. However, sustaining this trajectory will require continued investment in quality, compliance, and resilience as global expectations evolve.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Daniel Carter

Economic

Commodity

Russia's liquefied natural gas exports to China surged to a record in November, as buyers shrugged off the risk of western sanctions to access the cheaper fuel.

Deliveries of the super-chilled gas from Russia more than doubled from a year earlier to 1.6 million metric tons last month, customs data released over the weekend showed. The jump saw Russia overtake Australia to become China's biggest supplier after Qatar.

Russia has turned to Asia's biggest gas market to offset declining shipments to Europe, which was Moscow's biggest buyer for decades until the invasion of Ukraine. It has had to cut prices to increase its appeal — its LNG was the cheapest among the 12 suppliers to China and about 10% below the average at $9.85 a million British thermal units in November, the customs data showed.

Total imports had an annual increase for the first time in more than a year, after weak demand tempered requirements.

China in August started importing shipments from Russa's sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant through its remote Beihai terminal. Nevertheless, the Russian facility has had to cut output as winter ice complicates exports.

China hasn't imported US LNG since February, partly because of trade conflicts and weak demand. Major domestic companies are also increasingly diversifying their sources, while trying to sell contracted volumes on global markets, which is easier for American contracts that don't tend to have destination clauses.

Source: Bloomberg Europe

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Gerik

Economic

Commodity

Price Stabilization Amid Strategic Buying

Coffee prices across Vietnam’s Central Highlands showed a modest rebound on December 22, rising by 1,000 VND/kg compared to the previous day. Current market levels range between 89,500 and 90,500 VND/kg, signaling a mild recovery after prices plunged from above 100,000 VND/kg to below 90,000 VND/kg in recent weeks.

At the provincial level, Đắk Lắk recorded coffee purchase prices around 90,300 VND/kg, while Đắk Nông and Lâm Đồng saw prices at 89,500 VND/kg. Gia Lai and parts of Đắk Nông reported the highest figures, between 90,000 and 90,500 VND/kg. The upward movement has been attributed to renewed interest from speculators and exporters, who are beginning to replenish stocks for contracts slated for early 2026. This anticipatory demand is a direct cause of the short-term price increase.

Supply Discipline Among Farmers Boosts Market Sentiment

A key supporting factor behind the price recovery is the strategic behavior of Vietnamese farmers during the final stages of the harvest. Instead of selling aggressively, many are holding back supplies, either in anticipation of higher prices or releasing only partial volumes to meet immediate Tet holiday expenses. This withholding of supply has helped limit downward pressure and introduces an element of scarcity in the short term.

Although harvest volumes are high with projections suggesting a 6–10% year-over-year increase, reaching approximately 1.76 million metric tons farm-level sales discipline has delayed the full impact of the supply surge. This behavioral trend, rather than an actual shortage, is exerting influence on market pricing. The relationship here is not causal but correlational, as the expectation of restrained selling temporarily tightens available supply.

Global Supply Outlook and Regulatory Headwinds Create a Tug-of-War

The coffee market remains caught in a tense equilibrium between bearish and bullish forces. On the bearish side, the harvest season in Vietnam is peaking with solid output forecasts, and weather conditions in Brazil the world’s largest producer have improved significantly, increasing the likelihood of a bumper 2026 crop. These developments suggest potential oversupply in the coming months, which would ordinarily pressure prices further.

On the other hand, ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions in the Red Sea region, continue to drive up global logistics costs. New regulatory compliance pressures from the European Union, particularly the EUDR (Deforestation Regulation), though currently postponed, are still increasing the administrative and operational burdens for exporters. These factors are contributing to elevated input costs, which in turn provide a cushion for coffee prices. These cost-related influences exhibit a direct causal impact on price floors, even in the face of improving harvest prospects.

Additionally, global coffee stockpiles are at their lowest in five years, according to the USDA. This historically low inventory level has created a critical support zone in international pricing, preventing a freefall in prices despite broader supply concerns. The relative weakness of the US dollar has also made USD-denominated commodities like coffee more attractive to investors, further bolstering the price recovery.

Exporters Urged to Stay Realistic Despite Price Lift

Analysts advise that while the current rebound to around 90,000 VND/kg offers decent profit margins especially when compared to previous years farmers and traders should not overestimate the possibility of a return to the recent highs above 120,000 VND/kg. As global supply chains normalize and exports pick up pace, especially in Brazil and Southeast Asia, prices could face renewed downward pressure in the months ahead.

From a risk management perspective, partial profit-taking is recommended. Locking in gains progressively helps mitigate exposure to sudden market corrections driven by global supply news or macroeconomic developments such as currency fluctuations and interest rate shifts.

International Market Shows Mixed Signals

On the London exchange, Robusta futures presented a mixed picture. The January 2026 contract rose by $4 per ton to $3,778, while the May 2026 contract declined by $5 to $3,613. This divergence suggests uncertainty over short-term demand versus longer-term supply confidence.

Meanwhile, New York’s Arabica futures showed broader weakness. The March 2025 contract dropped by 4.45 cents/lb to 340.65 cents, while the December 2026 contract fell 1.7 cents to 303.6 cents/lb. However, further down the curve, the March 2026 Arabica contract plummeted 8.25 cents to 406.5 cents/lb, while May 2026 rebounded slightly to 410.05 cents/lb an indication of repositioning amid long-term market recalibration.

The Vietnamese coffee market is showing signs of a fragile recovery, supported by strategic buying, cautious selling by farmers, and underlying global supply concerns. However, structural pressures from strong harvests in both Vietnam and Brazil, coupled with external regulatory and logistical disruptions, create a highly volatile backdrop. Stakeholders are encouraged to manage expectations and remain vigilant, as the market may continue to fluctuate sharply depending on both domestic behavior and international developments.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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