FTSE 100, DAX 40 Begin New Year on Slightly Positive Footing

Stocks

Summary:

FTSE 100, DAX 40 begin new year on slightly positive footing as traders gradually return to markets.

FTSE 100 looks short-term bid at beginning of new year

The FTSE 100's recovery from its November and December 7,995 low is taking it towards the 55- and 200-day simple moving averages (SMA) at 8,208-to-8,212. Around these the advance may struggle, though.Potential slips may find support around the 27 December high at 8,159. It was made within the 8,183-to-8,196 late September and early October lows.Further minor support sits at the 31 December 8,086 low.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 Begin New Year on Slightly Positive Footing_1

DAX 40 begins new year on slightly positive footing

The German DAX 40 index is seen bouncing off Monday’s 19,748 low towards minor resistance sitting between the psychological 20,000 mark and the late December high at 20,024.Support below Monday’s 19,748 low can be spotted between the October highs at 19,683-to-19,643, the 20 December low at 19,635 and the 55-day SMA at 19,643.

FTSE 100, DAX 40 Begin New Year on Slightly Positive Footing_2

Source：IG

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Commodity

Spot gold price rises

The spot gold price's late December recovery from the June-to-December uptrend line and Monday's $2,596.00 per troy ounce low is taking it towards its late December $2,639.00 high. Resistance above this level comes in along the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at $2,663.00.The June-to-December uptrend at $2,602.00 may offer support ahead of Monday's $2,596.00 low. Below it sits at the December low at $2,584.00. While it holds, further range trading is at hand but failure there would probably put the November low at $2,537.00 on the map.

Gold, WTI Crude Oil Prices Begin New Year on a Positive Footing_1

WTI crude oil price probes key resistance area

The price of WTI front month crude oil futures contract probes the 71.03-to-72.59 key resistance zone following lower crude oil inventories. This technical resistance zone, which encompasses the August lows and September-to-December highs, may cap once more, though.Were a rise and daily chart close above the 72.59 November high to be seen, though, the 200-day SMA at 75.17 might be back in the frame.Slips may find support between the 71.28 August low and the 71.03 mid-December high. Further down meanders the 55-day simple moving average (SMA) at 69.57.

Gold, WTI Crude Oil Prices Begin New Year on a Positive Footing_2

Source:IG

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FOREX.com

Economic

Stocks

The month’s significance stems from two major developments. First, key US non-farm payrolls and inflation data are on the radar, likely determining whether Fed will pause its policy easing cycle later this month. Following the Fed’s hawkish December rate cut, markets expect a significantly slower pace of reductions for 2025.

Adding to market uncertainties (or maybe clarities) is Donald Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The incoming administration is expected to issue at least 25 executive orders immediately, targeting areas such as immigration, energy policy, and cryptocurrency regulation. Trump’s previously stated plans to impose tariffs on imports from China, Mexico, and Canada could introduce inflationary pressures by raising costs for companies and consumers. Markets will be on high alert for details of the policies and their implications for global trade outlook.

The crypto markets’ reaction in the coming days could give a sneak peak on how underlying risk sentiment is flaring back from holiday. Bitcoin’s pull back from 108368 has started to slow after hitting 55 D EMA (now at 92441). Strong bounce from current level, followed by break of 99866 resistance will argue that Bitcoin has completed the correction, and larger record run up trend is ready to resume. However, sustained trading below the EMA will likely pave the way back to 38.2% retracement of 49008 to 108368 at 85962, or even below, as correction deepens first.

Markets Poised for High-Stakes January Amid Fed and Trump Policy Shifts_1

In Asia, Japan was on holiday. Hong Kong HSI is down -2.40%. China Shanghai SSE is down -3.05%. Singapore Strait Times up 0.14%.

Happy new year, and wish you a prosperous and healthy 2025!

China’s Caixin PMI manufacturing falls back to 50.5 as downward pressures persist

China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI dropped to 50.5 in December, down from 51.5 and below market expectations of 51.6, signaling a moderation in the sector’s growth.

While supply and demand expanded modestly, external demand remained a significant drag, according to Wang Zhe, Senior Economist at Caixin Insight Group.

Zhe highlighted several challenges, noting that external demand was “sluggish”, while job market suffered a “notable contraction.” Additionally, sales prices were weak, and market optimism continued to decline.

The survey pointed to “prominent downward pressures”, stemming from subdued domestic demand and challenging external conditions, which have squeezed profit margins and dented confidence.

The report also suggested that the impact of previous policy stimulus measures has yet to yield consistent results, with more time needed to gauge their effectiveness.

Looking ahead

Swiss PMI manufacturing, Eurozone PMI manufacturing final and M3 money supply, and UK PMI manufacturing final will be released in European session. Later in the day, US will release jobless claims, PMI manufacturing final, and construction spending.

USD/CAD Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.4354; (P) 1.4394; (R1) 1.4442;

Intraday bias in USD/CAD remains neutral as consolidations continue below 1.4466. Deeper pullback cannot be ruled out, but outlook will stay bullish as long as 1.4177 resistance turned support holds. On the upside, break of 1.4466 and sustained trading above 1.4391 will pave the way to retest 1.4667/89 long term resistance zone.

Markets Poised for High-Stakes January Amid Fed and Trump Policy Shifts_2

In the bigger picture, up trend from 1.2005 (2021) is in progress and met 61.8% projection of 1.2401 to 1.3976 from 1.3418 at 1.4391 already. Sustained trading above there will pave the way to 1.4667/89 key resistance zone (2020/2015 highs). Medium term outlook will remain bullish as long as 1.3976 resistance turned holds, even in case of deep pullback.

Source: Actionforex

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

Asian shares mostly slipped Thursday, led by losses of more than 2% in Chinese benchmarks, as the region’s main stock market in Tokyo stayed closed for New Year holidays.

U.S. futures advanced and oil prices also gained.

Investors remain cautious over what U.S. President-elect Donald Trump might do once he takes office, including raising tariffs on imports from China and other Asian countries.

The Shanghai Composite index dropped 2.9% to 3,256.26 and the Hang Seng, in Hong Kong, fell 2.2% to 19,620.78.

Upbeat talk by Chinese leader Xi Jinping in a New Year’s address did little to raise optimism among market players who are hoping for more aggressive action to support the economy and boost share prices.

“We have proactively responded to the impacts of the changing environment at home and abroad. We have adopted a full range of policies to make solid gains in pursuing high-quality development. China’s economy has rebounded and is on an upward trajectory,” Xi said in a New Year message according to the official Xinhua News Agency.

Elsewhere in the Asia-Pacific, Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 rose 0.5% to 8,201.20 and South Korea’s Kospi was flat at 2,398.91.

On Wednesday, markets were closed on Wall Street for the New Year’s Day holiday, as were nearly all other world markets.

Investors will get an updated snapshot of U.S. construction spending for November on Thursday, while U.S. manufacturing numbers for December will be released Friday.

U.S. stock indexes closed mostly lower Tuesday as the market delivered a downbeat finish on the final day of another milestone-shattering year on Wall Street.

The S&P 500 gave up an early gain to finish down 0.4%. The benchmark index, which set 57 record highs in 2024, racked up a 23.3% gain in 2024. This was its second straight year with a gain of more than 20%. The last time the index had as big a back-to-back annual gain was 1998.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq composite lost 0.9%.

Big Tech stocks had led last year’s rally, pushing the Nasdaq to a yearly gain of 28.6%. The Dow, which is far less heavily weighted with tech, rose 12.9%.

The U.S. markets’ stellar run was driven by a growing economy, solid consumer spending and a strong jobs market.

Skyrocketing prices for companies in the artificial-intelligence business, such as Nvidia and Super Micro Computer, helped lift the market to new heights.

After three interest rate cuts in 2024, the Fed has signaled a more cautious approach heading into 2025 with inflation remaining sticky as the country prepares for Trump’s transition into the White House. Trump’s threats to hike tariffs on imported goods have raised anxiety that inflation could be reignited as companies pass along the cost of tariffs.

In other dealings early Thursday, benchmark U.S. crude oil rose 14 cents to $71.86 a barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, added 12 cents to $74.76 a barrel.

The U.S. dollar slipped to 156.80 Japanese yen from 157.40 yen. The euro cost $1.0365, up from $1.0359.

Source: AP

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Warren Takunda

Cryptocurrency

Bitcoin experienced a 150% rally in 2024, positioning itself as one of the top market performers in the year. This can be attributed to three bullish factors - regulatory optimism, an improved macro environment, and mounting investor enthusiasm.

Looking ahead, the world’s largest cryptocurrency is expected to extend its bullish trend in 2025, with analysts projecting it may reach a price range of between $200,000 (€193,000) and $250,000 (€241,000).

The bullish Bitcoin cycle may continue

Bitcoin has historically reached fresh highs every 4 years during its past two bullish cycles since 2017. Each cycle saw gains of 2300% and 1700% before setbacks of between 70% and 80%.

Since its low of $16,000 (€15,500) two years ago, Bitcoin has surged approximately 600%, indicating substantial potential for further growth in the coming two years.

Tom Lee from Fundstart Global Advisors predicts Bitcoin could reach $250, 000 in 2025. The Standard Chartered projects the price to hit $200,000 next year.

Cryptocurrencies generally tend to move in a bullish trend during the easing monetary cycles of central banks. Investors’ appetite for risky assets typically grows in environments of increased liquidation and expanding money supply.

With the world’s major central banks expected to continue cutting interest rates in 2025, prevailing risk-on sentiment is likely to support further gains for Bitcoin.

The US regulatory tailwind

Regulatory developments were the primary drivers of Bitcoin’s price surge in 2024. Its price saw a substantial rally, surpassing the critical resistance level of $52,000 (€50,200) in February.

It followed the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)’s approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF in January, ahead of the much-anticipated Bitcoin halving event in April.

Bitcoin traded between $52,000 and $72,000 (€69,600) until November, when Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election catalysed further gains.

Trump’s pledge to implement crypto-friendly policies, including his statement that he would make America the “crypto capital of the planet”, boosted investor sentiment.

Bitcoin topped the psychological threshold of $100,000 (€96,600) in early December after Trump announced plans to nominate Paul Atkins, a pro-crypto former SEC commissioner, as the next Chair of the SEC.

Analysts upbeat on Bitcoin prospects for 2025

“That performance is likely to continue in 2025, we will have a clearer regulatory environment and we are seeing institutional capital come to the table in a more significant manner than we’ve ever seen,” said Josh Gilbert, a markets analyst at eToro Australia.

The Trump administration’s policies could continue providing regulatory tailwinds for cryptocurrencies in 2025. The US president reiterated its plan to adopt Bitcoin as part of the US strategic reserves in December. The investment firm Charles Schwab expects Bitcoin to reach $1 million if this happens.

At a July conference, the president-elect said Bitcoin holding would create "a permanent national asset to benefit all Americans." Senator Cynthia Lummis outlined the purchase of not more than 200,000 Bitcoin tokens annually over five years, or approximately 1% of the total supply.

Based on its mining mechanism, Bitcoin has a maximum supply limit of 21 million tokens. Although the proposal did not clarify how it would pass the legal process, the US government could sell some of its gold reserves to raise the funds to buy Bitcoins, according to a Reuters report.

Near-term retreat risks

Nonetheless, the long-term view may not alter the near-term correction risk. Bitcoin price has retreated sharply from an all-time high of above $108,000 (€104,300) in mid-December to the current $94,000 (€90,800) level.

This is likely driven by profit-taking and risk-off sentiment. This decline coincides with a pullback in global stock markets over the past two weeks.

Until the incoming Trump Administration implements clear pro-crypto policies, some investors may choose to lock in their 2024 gains.

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s immediate support level appears to be around $90,000 (€87,000). A breakdown below this level could see the cryptocurrency testing the next target of approximately $73,000 (€70,500).

Source: Euronews

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Winkelmann

Central Bank

Economic

Forex

The greenback—tracked by the US Dollar Index (DXY)—started the new year with a gradual yet choppy ascent, encountering temporary resistance around the 106.50 region in May. However, it lost momentum afterward, leading to a significant pullback toward the psychological 100.00 mark by late September.

So, what stopped the US Dollar (USD) from plunging into deeper waters back then? What changed? The answer isn’t "what,” but “who.”

Enter the so-called “Trump trade,” which gained momentum alongside rising investor expectations that the former hotel magnate had a real chance of defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the November 5 election, reclaiming the Oval Office, and becoming the 47th US President.

And so it began.

The “Green Sweep”

In October, the Greenback ignited a significant rally, which paused briefly around the US elections in early November. Following the election results and the growing likelihood of a “Red Sweep,” the US Dollar Index (DXY) resumed its uptrend, climbing past the 108.00 barrier for the first time since November 2022.

This upward move in the index was mirrored in key 10-year Treasury yields, which surged to the 4.50% region—multi-month highs—by mid-November before triggering a corrective pullback.

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_1

The US economy is “in a very good place”

But the focus is not solely on Donald Trump. The US Dollar’s notable strength in 2024 has also been supported by the resilience of the US economy, particularly when compared to its global peers.

Although the US labour market has shown some signs of cooling in recent months, key indicators in this vital sector remain robust. In fact, the easing of labour market conditions appears neither sustainable nor particularly convincing. This aligns with Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s stance that any significant deterioration in the labour market would be unwelcome.

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_2

When it comes to inflation, upward pressure on consumer prices remains persistently high, staying above the Fed’s 2.0% target. While many Fed policymakers have expressed support for additional interest rate cuts, others remain cautious about the stubbornness of both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index.

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_3

Extra caution has resurfaced following Donald Trump’s victory, given his well-known support for implementing tariffs. So far, he has signalled the likelihood of imposing tariffs on imports from China and the European Union, with Canada and Mexico potentially next in line.

The immediate effect of tariffs is an increase in inflation due to higher costs for importers and consumers. This, in turn, could lead to retaliatory actions, potentially escalating into a full-blown trade war and heightening global trade tensions. Such a scenario might prompt the Federal Reserve to pause its current easing cycle, bring it to a halt, or even consider raising interest rates. All these factors would likely support a stronger US Dollar in the future.

In terms of economic growth, the US economy has been significantly outperforming its G10 counterparts. For now, there appears to be little indication that this trend will reverse in the near-to-medium terms. However, it remains uncertain whether the economic consequences of Trump’s tariff policies could meaningfully dent US GDP growth.

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_4

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_5

Let the Trump 2.0 show begin

The so-called “Trump trade” has been a driving force behind the pronounced rally in the US Dollar since early October, fuelled by a shift in US investor sentiment towards a potential Donald Trump victory in the November 5 election.

A glimpse into what a Trump 2.0 administration might look like reveals that, in terms of economic policy, Trump emphasises corporate deregulation, a more lenient approach to fiscal policy, and a focus on promoting domestic manufacturing. He also advocates for tariffs to protect American industries and reduce reliance on imports.

Strict immigration enforcement remains central to Trump’s agenda, including increased border security, tighter asylum policies... and the possible completion of the southern border wall?

In foreign policy, Trump prioritises US self-interest, supporting reduced US military involvement overseas, pressuring NATO allies to increase defence spending, and confronting China both economically and diplomatically.

On energy and environmental policy, Trump promotes energy independence by expanding fossil fuel production, rolling back environmental regulations, and withdrawing from international climate agreements.

Trump, the Fed, and Chair Powell

Monetary policy is another area likely to draw attention, particularly the dynamic between Trump and Fed Chair Powell. During his first term, Trump frequently criticised Powell, accusing him of being too slow to cut interest rates. Recently, Trump has floated the idea that the president should have influence over interest rate decisions—a role traditionally reserved for the independent Federal Reserve. How this tension plays out could have significant implications for economic policy and the Fed’s independence.

Earlier this month, Powell addressed concerns about his role being undermined by the incoming administration. Speaking at a New York Times event, he dismissed the notion of a "shadow Fed chair" and expressed confidence in building a strong relationship with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who recently said that Powell should serve the remainder of his term.

Against the backdrop of a resilient US economy, some gradual (debatable?) easing in the labour market, and persistent inflationary pressures, Powell suggested that the Fed is in no hurry to further reduce its Federal Funds Target Rate (FFTR). He also highlighted the importance of a cautious approach in determining the neutral rate.

Powell’s stance aligns with that of FOMC Governor Michelle Bowman, who recently argued that inflation remains a significant risk to the economy. She also noted that the labour market's continued strength, nearing full employment, raises concerns about price stability. Bowman advocated for a gradual and measured approach to reducing the policy rate as long as inflation remains elevated.

The above was reinforced at the final FOMC meeting of the year. On December 18, the central bank aligned with broad expectations and lowered its Fed Funds Target Range by 25 basis points to 4.25%-4.50%. However, it signalled a more cautious pace of easing for the next year, with the majority of officials expressing concerns that inflation could reignite.

Regarding the so-called “dot plot,” the updated version provided insight into central bankers' economic expectations. It revealed plans for two small interest rate cuts next year, as inflationary pressures remain persistent. This measured approach suggests the Fed is in no hurry to act in January, when Trump begins his second term in the White House.

The new projections hint at a more cautious stance following the Fed’s third consecutive rate cut in December. Policymakers expect the benchmark lending rate to end in 2025 in the 3.75%-4.00% range. By late 2026, they anticipate rates will ease further, reaching about 3.4%. Even at that level, borrowing costs would remain above their revised estimate of the “neutral” rate—now set at 3%—the level where the economy neither overheats nor slows.

The message? The Fed is treading carefully, trying to control inflation without overcorrecting in an uncertain economic environment.

US economic exceptionalism to extend into 2025

What about updated projections for economic activity and inflation? Fed officials expect the domestic economy to grow faster than previously forecast, with growth pegged at 2.5% this year and 2.1% in 2025. These figures represent an upgrade from September’s projections, which predicted 2% growth for both years.

Unemployment, currently at 4.2%, is expected to remain steady through this quarter before rising slightly to 4.3% by late 2025. This marks an improvement from earlier projections, which had forecast a rate of 4.4% for both periods.

Inflation, however, remains stubborn. Core inflation, a key measure that excludes volatile food and energy prices, is now projected to stay elevated for longer than previously expected. It is forecast to hit 2.8% this year before gradually easing to 2.5% by the end of 2025. These figures are higher than September’s projections, which anticipated core inflation at 2.6% this year and 2.2% next year.

The updated outlook highlights the ongoing challenges of managing economic growth alongside inflation control, as price pressures persist despite a cooling labour market.

In his final press conference of 2024, Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that policymakers are focused on bringing inflation closer to their 2% target before considering further rate cuts. He acknowledged that inflation has exceeded year-end expectations, underscoring the need for continued progress toward price stability.

Powell also remarked that the labour market is softening, but in a gradual and orderly manner. He described the current economic conditions as relatively balanced between the Fed’s dual mandates of low inflation and full employment.

When asked about the possibility of raising interest rates instead of cutting them, Powell did not entirely rule out the idea but said it was unlikely. "You don't rule things completely in or out in this world. That doesn't appear to be a likely outcome," he commented.

On the topic of the incoming Trump administration, Powell emphasised it was too early to predict how President-elect Trump’s economic policies might impact the economy or the Fed’s decisions. He noted the significant uncertainty surrounding these plans, saying, "It’s very premature to make any kind of conclusion. We don’t know what will be tariffed, from what countries, for how long, in what size."

Powell urged patience, adding, "We need to take our time, not rush," as the central bank waits for clearer signals on the new administration’s policies. While there is growing speculation that Trump’s preferences for tariffs and stricter immigration policies could drive inflation higher, Powell made it clear that the Fed will wait for concrete developments before adjusting its approach.

US Dollar Index Technical Analysis: Bullish outlook prevails

The yearly high above the 108.00 barrier, recorded soon after the Fed’s hawkish cut on December 18, was confirmed by the daily RSI, which initially flirted with the overbought region, leaving some room for a potential near-term corrective move.

At the upper end of the range, the continuation of a bullish bias is likely to face immediate resistance at the 2024 high of 108.26. Beyond this level, resistance aligns with the November 2022 peak of 113.14, reached on November 3, followed by the October 2022 top of 113.94, marked on October 21, and the 2022 peak of 114.77, registered on September 28.

If sellers regain control, initial support lies at the December low of 105.42, clocked on December 6. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the provisional 55-day SMA at 105.22, situated above the more critical 200-day SMA at 104.24.

A deeper pullback might revisit the November low of 103.37 (November 5), further reinforced by the nearby 100-day SMA. South of this area, the 200-week SMA at 101.40 provides additional support, followed by the 2024 bottom of 100.15, achieved on September 27.

For now, further upside remains plausible as long as the index holds above the key 200-day SMA. The bullish outlook is supported by the index trading well above its Ichimoku cloud, with the RSI trending upward near 70. Additionally, the Average Directional Index (ADX) at approximately 35 signals moderate strength in the current trend.

US Dollar Price Annual Forecast: King for longer?_6

Conclusion

It appears that 2025 should be a positive year for the US Dollar.

On the geopolitical front, there is no clear end in sight for the Russia-Ukraine war or the Israel-Iran-Lebanon conflict, while the volatile situation in Syria continues to fuel uncertainty in the Middle East. This persistently complex landscape is likely to sustain demand for safe-haven assets, which should provide support for the Greenback.

Furthermore, if the Trump 2.0 scenario materialises as many market participants anticipate, significant tariffs are likely to return, potentially triggering retaliatory measures and reigniting global trade tensions. Rising inflationary pressures could compel the Fed to act, potentially halting the ongoing rate-cut cycle or even initiating a rate-hiking programme. This would likely push US yields higher and further strengthen the US Dollar.

The stark contrast between the resilience of the US economy and the struggles of its global peers is expected to deepen the monetary easing cycle abroad next year, compared to the limited rate reductions—or lack thereof—in the United States. This divergence supports the case for further depreciation of rival currencies, reinforcing a constructive outlook for the Greenback into 2025.

To stay updated on all economic events of today, please check out our Economic calendar

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Warren Takunda

Stocks

UK stocks are expected to open with tepid gains on Thursday with traders showing caution as the first trading day of 2025 gets underway.

Futures on the FTSE 100 were showing gains of around 0.2% by 0728 GMT after settling at a two-week high of 8,173.02 on Tuesday.

Nationwide reported that UK house prices rose 4.7% year-on-year in December to £269,426, up 0.7% over the month to sit just below an all-time high recorded in summer 2022. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist, said that the housing market "ended 2024 on a strong footing", but volatility is expected across the next few months due to upcoming changes to stamp duty, which will "make it more difficult to discern the underlying strength of the market".

With global financial markets closed on Wednesday for New Year's Day, Thursday will be a relatively busy session for economic data, with December manufacturing surveys due out in the eurozone, UK and US, along with US mortgage applications, construction spending and jobless claims.

However, Thursday is likely to be a quiet day for blue-chip corporate announcements, with volumes still likely to be low as traders returned to the desks following the festive holidays.

Among the few announcements made ahead of the open, Auction Technology Group reported the appointment of Sarah Highfield as its new chief financial officer, succeeding Tom Hargreaves, who was leaving to join a private equity-backed company. It said Highfield would bring over 15 years of senior financial leadership experience, having held roles at companies including Elvie, Costa Coffee, Tesco, and Away Resorts, currently chairing the audit and risk committee at Coats Group.

Chrysalis Investments on Thursday said it had reached a settlement with Revolution Beauty over its claim against the troubled AIM-listed cosmetics retailer. Under the terms of the settlement, Revolution Beauty has agreed to pay the former investor “a non-material sum, being less than 1% of the company's market capitalisation” on Jan 2. All other details of the settlement remain confidential.