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USDCAD: BOC (Bank of Canada) Hints that Rate Hike Pause Won't Change US-Canada Slump

Summary:

In the short term, USD/CAD will enter a situation to see 'who is worse' on both sides. In addition, one thing to note is that the BOC slowed down or even suspended interest rate hikes, which may lead to the market expecting the same from the Fed. Overall, USD/CAD is still in a downtrend.

Sell USDCAD
EXP
EXPIRED

1.36946

ENTRY PRICE

1.35811

TGT PRICE

1.37602

SL PRICE

1.33067 -0.00130 -0.10%

--

Point

EXPIRED

1.35811

TGT PRICE

1.36479

CLOSING

1.36946

ENTRY PRICE

1.37602

SL PRICE

Fundamentals

USD/CAD closed flat yesterday, edging up 0.01% after four consecutive trading days of gains, due to the BOC's interest rate resolution. While raising rates by 50 basis points as expected by the market, the BOC said in its statement that the three-month rate of change in core inflation, a leading indicator, has declined, suggesting that price pressures may be losing momentum. The committee will consider whether it needs to continue to raise interest rates, which means that the BOC may be nearing the end of this tightening cycle. As a result, the CAD was weakened, with USD/CAD recovering all its losses for the day. 
The recent trend of the USD is slightly more complex, which is related to the market expectations being "disturbed". The market expected the Fed's terminal rate to be higher than 5% and sometimes below 5% in the past two trading days. Meanwhile, the market mixed it with recession expectations, which means that the USD needs to decide the direction soon, and its movement will show oscillation. 
In the short term, USD/CAD will enter a situation to see 'who is worse' on both sides. Moreover, one thing to note is that in the last two tightening cycles, the BOC followed the footsteps of the Fed while it also "jumped the gun". For example, in the current rate hike cycle, regardless of the rate hike speed, or the rate hike range, the BOC acted in this way. Therefore, the BOC's determination to slow down or even pause interest rate hikes may lead to the market expecting the same from the Fed. Generally, USD/CAD remains in a downtrend

Technical Analysis

Regarding the 4-hour chart, USD/CAD has come near the top of the upper channel, temporarily blocked by it (1.36946), while USD/CAD remains in a 1.38394-1.34977 wide oscillator range. Besides, a break above 1.36946 would be expected to hit the top of the oscillator range (1.38394), while the 61.8% Fibonacci retracements is also in its vicinity. In other words, USD/CAD can only open a new round of rebounds if it breaks above 1.38394. Also, short-term strong support is at the bottom of the oscillation range (1.34977), while the 100- and 200-day moving averages are also near. USD/CAD will go straight to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracements (1.33197) if breaking below this line, while the line is also the starting point of the USD/CAD rally, as well as key support. For indicators, Stcoh has formed a bearish divergence. In DMI, -DI has signs of breaking above +DI. Moreover, referring to the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, the price is above the baseline and the turning line with a certain distance between the two lines. All the above imply that USD/CAD will see a round of decline.USDCAD: BOC (Bank of Canada) Hints that Rate Hike Pause Won't Change US-Canada Slump_1

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Short
Entry price: 1.36946
Target price: 1.35811
Stop loss: 1.37602
Support: 1.36506/1.36187/1.35811/1.34977
Resistance: 1.36946/1.37264/1.37607
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I have an in-depth study of fundamentals, especiaslly for the US dollar market. I'm good at short and medium term trading by virtue of my profound financial theoretical knowledge and extensive practical experience.

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