Selling Opportunities in Focus After Rejection at Late-May Highs

Economic

Central Bank

Summary:

Fibonacci retracement level aligns closely with the support area at 0.8168, increasing the technical importance of this zone and strengthening its role as a possible objective for a corrective decline.

SELL USDCHF

EXP

PENDING

0.83300

Entry Price

0.81680

0.85000

0.82880 -0.00210 -0.25%

Pips

PENDING

0.81680

Exit Price

0.83300

Entry Price

0.85000

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0%, matching market expectations. The central bank slightly revised its inflation forecasts higher and now expects consumer prices to rise by 0.7% this year, followed by increases of 0.8% in both 2027 and 2028. Despite the upward revision, policymakers continue to view medium-term inflation pressures as relatively contained and expect inflation to move somewhat higher during the fourth quarter before gradually moderating throughout 2027.

SNB Chairman Martin Schlegel stated that the recent weakening of the Swiss Franc has been partly driven by widening interest-rate differentials between Switzerland and other major economies. According to Schlegel, Switzerland’s comparatively low interest rates have reduced the attractiveness of the currency relative to both the Euro and the US Dollar (USD). He also reiterated that the SNB remains ready to intervene in foreign exchange markets should conditions require such action.

At the same time, the central bank maintained a cautious view of the economic outlook. Policymakers continue to identify global economic developments as the main source of risk for Switzerland, particularly amid tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty surrounding international trade policies, and persistent exchange-rate volatility. SNB Governing Board member Petra Tschudin noted that Swiss Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth was particularly strong during the second quarter, supported by solid performance in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries. Nevertheless, the central bank expects economic growth to moderate over the coming quarters.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, came in at 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from the previous reading and below expectations for a rise to 3.5%.

Following the release, money markets adjusted their expectations significantly. Traders now assign a 75.1% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged at the next Federal Reserve meeting, while the likelihood of a rate increase in December currently stands at 61.3%.

The yield on the US 10-year Treasury note, a key benchmark for global borrowing costs and asset valuations, declined to 5.24% after reaching 5.34% earlier in the session, marking a fresh multi-decade high. Similarly, the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond climbed to levels not seen in 24 years before easing modestly toward the close.

Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan stated on Thursday that the central bank may need to raise short-term borrowing costs by at least another half percentage point in order to bring monetary policy into what she described as a “moderately restrictive” stance and return inflation to its target over time.

Attention now shifts to Friday’s US September employment report. Economists expect Nonfarm Payrolls to show an increase of 90,000 jobs, compared with the previous reading of 162,000. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate is projected to remain unchanged at 4.1% during the same period. Selling Opportunities in Focus After Rejection at Late-May Highs_1

Selling Opportunities in Focus After Rejection at Late-May Highs_1

Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, USDCHF reacted lower after reaching the resistance level at 0.8349. These price levels had not been seen since late May, making the recent rejection particularly relevant from a technical perspective. The strength of the downside reaction suggests that a corrective move may be developing, with the local support level at 0.8168 emerging as a potential downside target.

The 100-period and 200-period moving averages continue to follow the price action below current levels at 0.8073 and 0.7958 respectively, reinforcing the broader bullish structure. At the same time, the 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligns closely with the support area at 0.8168, increasing the technical importance of this zone and strengthening its role as a possible objective for a corrective decline.

In the oscillator area, the RSI recently reached the 75 level, increasing the probability of a pullback as the market has not seen such elevated overbought conditions in recent months. Meanwhile, the MACD continues to display a bullish histogram, although it has begun to lose momentum at a rapid pace. The signal lines remain deeply positioned within bullish territory, leaving limited room for additional upside acceleration. However, given the current positioning of the indicator, any downside movement should still be viewed as a correction within the prevailing uptrend rather than the beginning of a broader trend reversal.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8330

Target price: 0.8168

Stop loss: 0.8500

Validity: Oct 15, 2026 15:00:00

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Selling Opportunities in Focus After Rejection at Late-May Highs

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