Oil Slips as US-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears, Nuclear Questions Persist

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

WTI crude remained under pressure below $74 per barrel as improving US-Iran relations and rising Iranian exports eased supply concerns. However, lingering uncertainty surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program helped limit deeper losses.

SELL WTI

EXP

TRADING

73.000

Entry Price

64.000

78.000

72.863 -0.999 -1.35%

0.0

Pips

Flat

64.000

Exit Price

73.000

Entry Price

78.000

West Texas Intermediate crude oil extended its decline for a second consecutive session on Tuesday, with prices hovering near $73.40 per barrel during European trading as markets continued to assess the implications of improving relations between the United States and Iran. While the broader tone remains bearish due to expectations of increasing global supply, persistent uncertainty surrounding Iran’s nuclear ambitions has prevented a steeper selloff.

Investor sentiment toward the energy market has shifted noticeably in recent weeks as diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran gained momentum. Hopes that a lasting agreement could eventually normalize Iranian oil exports have significantly reduced the geopolitical premium that had previously supported crude prices.

The latest setback for oil came as traders focused on signs that additional Iranian barrels could continue finding their way into global markets. Washington recently granted Tehran a 60-day waiver allowing oil sales to resume internationally, a move that has fueled expectations of stronger supply growth over the coming months. Market participants are also closely monitoring shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz, which has steadily improved following months of disruption and heightened military tensions.

Reports indicate that Iran exported more than 30 million barrels of crude during the past week alone, while major Gulf producers including Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have increasingly relied on alternative export routes to ensure uninterrupted supply flows. These developments have reinforced expectations that global oil availability could rise faster than previously anticipated, weighing on prices.

However, the bearish narrative is not entirely straightforward. Tehran pushed back strongly against comments from US Vice President JD Vance, who suggested that Iran would allow inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency back into the country. Iranian officials denied that any new commitments had been made regarding nuclear inspections, highlighting that significant political and diplomatic hurdles remain unresolved.

From my perspective, this remains one of the key risks preventing oil from falling more aggressively. While markets are increasingly confident about a broader US-Iran understanding, the nuclear issue continues to represent a major source of uncertainty. Any deterioration in negotiations or signs of renewed tensions could quickly revive geopolitical concerns and provide support for crude prices.

Attention now turns to the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly inventory report. Traders will be looking for fresh clues on the balance between supply and demand in the world's largest oil-consuming nation. A larger-than-expected drawdown in stockpiles would suggest resilient demand and could offer short-term support to prices. Conversely, another sizable inventory build would reinforce concerns about growing supply and potentially accelerate the current decline.

Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil remains locked in a bearish structure on the 2-hour chart, with price trading near $73.65 after failing to reclaim the broken $75.00–$76.00 resistance zone. The market has been moving steadily lower since the rejection from the $94.00 area, forming a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows.

The latest price action shows crude consolidating just above short-term support, but the rebound remains weak. Former support around $75.00–$76.00 has now turned into resistance, and as long as WTI remains below this zone, sellers retain control.

On the downside, the next major support sits around $68.50–$69.00, which aligns with the projected bearish path on the chart. A decisive break below this level would expose deeper losses toward $64.00, confirming a broader continuation of the downtrend.

On the upside, WTI would need to recover above $76.00 to ease immediate bearish pressure. A stronger move above $78.00–$79.00 would be required to invalidate the current downside setup.

Momentum remains negative, with price failing to produce a convincing bullish reversal after the recent selloff. The current pause looks more like consolidation before another leg lower rather than a trend reversal.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

SELL WTI CRUDE OIL

ENTRY PRICE: 73.00

STOP LOSS: 78.00

TAKE PROFIT : 64.00

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