In today's trading, gold prices fell to US$4,194, down 0.59%, retreating from recent highs.

Gold's upward momentum may face challenges if market sentiment improves next year and asset allocation shifts back toward risk assets.

Although current gold futures positions exceed long-term averages, they remain well below this year's peak levels, potentially signaling a cooling of market optimism following the strong rally at the beginning of the year. However, with inflation persisting despite the ongoing rate-cutting cycle, investors may still increase their allocation to gold.

Central banks' demand for gold is more structural in nature, as the U.S. fiscal deficit has been expanding and emerging market central banks hold relatively low proportions of gold in their foreign exchange reserves.

During Wednesday's European session, gold prices hovered near the lower end of their range. Despite mixed market sentiment, prices held above yesterday's low of US$4,163. Overall strength in equity markets was seen as a key factor weighing on the precious metal.

The current intraday high of US$4,230 has become a direct resistance level for bullish momentum. A break above this level would signal an early indication of further upward movement. The next resistance level stands at US$4,246; a breach of this threshold would mark the continuation of last week's rally and target the sell-off level at US$4,346.

On the other hand, should gold prices break below the US$4,182 threshold, the downward trend may continue. If yesterday's low of US$4,163 is breached, prices could test the US$4,100 level before ultimately falling to the converging support zone at US$4,075-US$4,073. This support area is formed by the 200 SMA in the 4H timeframe and the upward trendline established since late October.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4205

Target Price: 4346

Stop Loss: 4170

Valid Until: December 20, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 4180, 4165, 4154

Resistance: 4220, 4228, 4239

The Pound Sterling (GBP) surged 0.5% on Wednesday to approach 1.3280 against the US Dollar (USD) during European trading hours, as the Greenback came under pressure following growing speculation over the next Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the currency against six major peers, slumped to a fresh monthly low near 99.00, reflecting the market’s unease over potential changes in US monetary policy leadership.

Investor attention has sharply shifted to the US White House, where President Donald Trump confirmed on Tuesday that he has narrowed his options for Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s successor to a single candidate, with an official announcement expected in early 2026. Speaking to reporters at a White House event, Trump referenced White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett as a potential nominee.

Markets are interpreting the potential appointment of Hassett as bearish for the US Dollar. Hassett has publicly advocated for lower interest rates on multiple occasions, a stance that contrasts with the current hawkish tone at the Fed under Powell. Investors are pricing in the possibility of a shift toward more accommodative US monetary policy, weighing heavily on the Dollar and supporting risk-sensitive assets, including the Pound.

From a technical standpoint, GBP/USD has shown a pronounced recovery after weeks of consolidation and downward pressure. The currency pair recently breached a strong resistance trend line, a level that had been tested multiple times in prior sessions without success. This breakout followed a double bottom formation, providing an initial bullish signal.

Intraday, GBP/USD leveraged support from the 50-day exponential moving average (EMA50) while simultaneously adhering to a bullish corrective trend line on a short-term basis. These technical factors fueled renewed momentum, allowing the pair to recover from a key support test near 1.3195. Complementing the bullish scenario, relative strength indicators have emerged with positive signals, further reinforcing the potential for continued gains.

On the daily chart, GBP/USD maintains a robust bullish structure, having surpassed the previous week’s high. This reinforces market confidence that the Pound could extend its rally in the near term. Analysts highlight that the ongoing Dollar weakness, driven by Fed succession uncertainty, could catalyze additional upside pressure for GBP/USD.

The long position appears justified based on both fundamental and technical factors. Key target levels for the pair include 1.337 as the initial take-profit, followed by 1.350 for more extended gains, contingent on the persistence of bullish momentum and a lack of USD recovery.

BUY GBPUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 1.3300

STOP LOSS: 1.3150

TAKE PROFIT: 1.3500

The USD/CHF pair extended its cautious decline on Wednesday, stabilizing slightly above the 0.8000 threshold but maintaining a heavy tone as it traded near 0.8010, down 0.25% on the day. The move reflects growing pressure on the US Dollar, which continues to underperform across major currencies as political uncertainty deepens and expectations of Federal Reserve easing accelerate. The US Dollar Index drifted to around 99.10, losing another 0.15% and edging closer to key multi-month lows, a sign that bearish momentum remains firmly in place.

Market sentiment was jolted this week after US President Donald Trump hinted that White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett could be named as the next Federal Reserve Chair when Jerome Powell’s term expires in early 2026. Financial markets interpreted the statement as a clear signal that the administration may push for a more dovish policy direction. Hassett is widely viewed as supportive of lower interest rates, and the possibility of a more accommodative Fed over the coming years has contributed to a softening outlook for the Dollar.

At the same time, traders continue to navigate an uncertain US macroeconomic backdrop. Attention now turns to the release of November’s ADP Employment Change report, which is expected to show a significant drop in private-sector job creation, falling to only 5,000 positions from October’s 42,000. The cooling labor trend will be further tested by the ISM Services PMI reading, forecast to decline modestly to 52.1 from 52.4. Both indicators carry added weight due to the postponement of the official Nonfarm Payrolls report, which has been delayed until December 16 because of the government shutdown. The absence of the NFP report has forced investors to rely more heavily on secondary labor indicators to gauge the health of the economy.

Commentary from Federal Open Market Committee members has further reinforced expectations that the US economy is losing momentum. Several policymakers have hinted that labor demand may be weakening faster than previously expected, and many have signaled a willingness to support additional monetary easing if required. Market pricing now reflects an 85 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. For traders, the combination of softer data, political noise, and a potentially more dovish central bank has created a challenging environment for the Dollar to recover.

Across the Atlantic, Switzerland’s economic data offered its own mixture of stability and caution. The Swiss Consumer Price Index fell by 0.2 percent month-on-month in November, matching expectations and reversing the previous month’s sharper decline. However, the annual inflation rate slipped to zero percent, undershooting the consensus forecast and underscoring Switzerland’s uniquely low-inflation environment. This subdued pricing outlook strengthens expectations that the Swiss National Bank will leave its policy rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting. SNB Chair Martin Schlegel recently noted that the threshold for returning to negative interest rates remains high, but he also emphasized the central bank’s readiness to act if conditions deteriorate. Meanwhile, SNB Board Member Petra Tschudin said inflation may rise modestly over the coming quarters, though the overall trajectory remains comfortably contained.

From a technical perspective, USD/CHF maintains a bearish posture that continues to be reinforced by market structure. The pair remains confined within a downward corrective channel that has repeatedly limited attempts at upward recovery. Price action is firmly below the 50-period simple moving average, which continues to act as dynamic resistance and confirms the bearish bias. Momentum indicators such as the Relative Strength Index remain in negative territory and have failed to generate meaningful bullish divergence, even after touching oversold levels. The pair’s inability to break above the descending trendline or re-enter the Ichimoku cloud highlights persistent selling pressure and affirms that rallies continue to be met with supply.

The recent rejection from the pullback region around 0.8026 confirms the resilience of short-term resistance, while the broader market landscape suggests limited appetite for a sustained recovery as long as Fed policy expectations lean dovish and macro uncertainty remains elevated. The next meaningful downside area sits near the 0.7950 region, roughly aligned with the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement, where some traders expect the pair to encounter initial support.

SELL USDCHF

ENTRY PRICE: 0.8000

STOP LOSS: 0.8026

TAKE PROFIT: 0.7950

The Australian dollar advanced to a multi-week high near 0.6600 on Wednesday, as traders looked past a softer-than-expected GDP headline and instead focused on the underlying strength of private investment and household consumption. The latest figures, while modest on the surface, effectively reinforced the Reserve Bank of Australia’s case for remaining on hold — a stance that stands in stark contrast to expectations for significant policy easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve next year.

Australia’s economy expanded 0.4% in the third quarter, slowing from 0.7% in Q2 and falling short of both market forecasts (0.7%) and the RBA’s own 0.5% projection. On an annual basis, GDP rose 2.1%, broadly aligned with the central bank’s estimate for year-end growth around 2%, suggesting the economy retains enough underlying momentum to keep inflationary pressures from fading too quickly.

Yet the headline disappointment masked a sturdier story beneath the surface. The largest drag came from inventory destocking, which shaved 0.5 percentage points off growth — a temporary factor rather than a signal of weakening demand. Stripping this out reveals a surprisingly solid performance in private domestic demand, the area the RBA watches most closely for inflation persistence.

Private investment added 0.5 percentage points to GDP, fueled by large-scale data center expansions and continued corporate capital expenditure. Household consumption also contributed positively, adding 0.3 percentage points, driven primarily by essential spending rather than discretionary splurges. In other words, Australian consumers are cautious but not collapsing, and businesses continue to deploy capital with confidence despite tighter financial conditions.

This divergence in domestic and external pressures gives policymakers little reason to shift their current bias. Markets seem to agree — the swaps curve continues to price additional tightening risks in Australia over the next year, even as traders expect the Fed to deliver up to 100 basis points of cuts. For currency markets, that creates a widening one-year implied policy rate differential squarely in the Australian dollar’s favor.

Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman (BBH) argue that this gap provides material upside for AUD/USD, potentially pushing the pair toward 0.6700 in the months ahead if U.S. yields continue to decline while Australian rates stay anchored at elevated levels. For now, traders appear comfortable leaning into that narrative, with the Aussie’s latest surge suggesting growing conviction that policy spreads matter more than soft patches in headline growth.

From a technical standpoint, AUD/USD continues to reinforce its bullish bias, with price action preparing to challenge the immediate resistance level at 0.6580. The pair is finding dynamic support from the 50-day EMA, which has acted as a springboard for intraday rallies, while relative strength indicators are flashing constructive signals despite extended readings.

Momentum remains firmly tilted to the upside, shaped by a minor but persistent bullish wave on the short-term time frame. The strong and broadening volume profile around recent gains underscores buyers’ commitment, suggesting that a clean break above 0.6580 could open the door for a retest of the psychological 0.6700 handle — a level increasingly aligned with the macro narrative of widening policy divergence.

BUY AUDUSD

ENTRY PRICE: 0.6590

STOP LOSS: 0.6530

TAKE PROFIT: 0.6700

Beijing's recent verbal and trade counter-measures, which triggered by Tokyo's Taiwan-strait statements and the ensuing diplomatic spat, have already hit China-exposed sectors such as inbound tourism and retail. Investors fear that an escalation could undermine Japan's export and tourism receipts, eroding JPY fundamentals.

Historically, regional geopolitical stress has supported safe-haven demand for the yen. This episode, however, is more nuanced. A knee-jerk "risk-off" bid for JPY is possible if the market treats the clash as a localized security threat. However, any sustained hit to growth, corporate earnings or fiscal credibility would likely spark capital outflows and push USDJPY higher.

Positioning is therefore caught between these two scenarios. Flows are also being shaped by Japan's latest fiscal-stimulus package and the rise in JGB yields, turning the fiscal trajectory and the widening rate differential into fresh variables for JPY strength.

From the daily chart, USDJPY broke out of the triangular consolidation zone and once rallied to test the 158.00 handle, but failed to sustain a break. That triggered a pullback to the 154.70 support confluence, which coincides with the SMA20 and forms a reinforced support cluster. Monday's long lower shadow and Tuesday's follow-through bullish close have strengthened near-term upside momentum.

For now, the immediate resistance to watch is 156.17. A decisive break on rising volume would open room for a retest of 158.00. Conversely, if the pair remains capped below 156.17 and turns lower, expect another probe of the 154.70 support.

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 155.70

Target Price: 160.10

Stop Loss: 154.60

Valid Until: December 17, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 155.50/154.70

Resistance Levels: 158.86/160.00

This week, the Canadian dollar will be influenced by November's labor market data, which is scheduled for release on Friday. The consensus forecasts the national unemployment rate to rise from 6.9% in October to 7%. Meanwhile, the overall labor force is expected to remain unchanged. The Canadian government plans to implement capacity enhancement measures for the Trans Mountain pipeline prior to divesting its equity stake. Energy Minister Tim Hodgson stated that the federal government will only consider the sale after maximizing the pipeline's throughput through related optimization initiatives over the coming years. The Trans Mountain pipeline was acquired by the government in 2018 to support its expansion project, which ultimately cost approximately CAD 34 billion and was officially commissioned last year, increasing crude oil transportation capacity from 300,000 to 890,000 barrels per day. Former Prime Minister Trudeau repeatedly expressed that the government does not intend to hold the pipeline long-term, with plans to ultimately privatize it and gift some equity stakes to Indigenous communities along the route. Currently, Prime Minister Mark Carney's administration prefers to initiate the sale process after resolving pipeline toll disputes and completing several capacity optimization projects. Hodgson noted that these high-value "bottleneck removal" measures could boost the pipeline's total capacity to approximately 1.25 million barrels per day. Additionally, Vancouver's Fraser Ports are dredging the channel to increase vessel loading capacity, thereby maximizing the asset value for taxpayers. Currently, the tolling dispute is projected to be resolved by late 2026 or early 2027. Regarding Indigenous equity ownership, the Carney government has not yet clarified whether it will adopt the previous administration's approach. However, the latest memorandum of understanding with Alberta stipulates that future pipeline projects to the British Columbia coast must incorporate Indigenous joint ownership and be supported by federal loan guarantees.

On Tuesday, U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that he has narrowed down the Federal Reserve's potential Chairmanship candidates to a single individual, with an announcement expected in early 2026. During his remarks, he mentioned White House Adviser Hassett by name. According to Reuters, Trump stated, "I believe a potential Federal Reserve Chair has emerged. May I say that? It's a potential. I can tell you, he's a respected person. Thank you, Kevin." Simultaneously, investors are closely monitoring the upcoming November releases of U.S. ADP employment change figures and the ISM Services PMI data, which are scheduled for the North American trading session. Given that most officials, including Jerome Powell, have warned of downside risks in the labor market, U.S. private sector employment figures are expected to significantly influence market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Major investment banks have substantially increased their forecasts for a December rate cut. Institutions such as Bank of America Global Research, J.P. Morgan, and Goldman Sachs project a 25 basis point reduction, while Morgan Stanley and Standard Chartered maintain their previous forecasts. The CME FedWatch tool indicates that the market-implied probability of a rate cut has risen to 89.2%, reflecting heightened investor concern over labor market weakness and recent dovish signals from Federal Reserve officials.

In the 1D timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, indicating decreasing volatility. The short-term EMA12 has reversed downward, with prices oscillating between the EMA50 and the lower Bollinger Band. The MACD momentum is weakening; the MACD line and signal line have produced a death cross, suggesting a high probability of price decline toward the EMA200, around 1.392. The RSI stands at 42, reflecting strong market bearish sentiment and suggesting the short-term correction is ongoing. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding downward. Following the MACD golden cross, the MACD line and signal line are retracing toward the zero-axis; however, they still remain some distance apart, indicating the correction has not yet concluded. Support levels are identified at the lower Bollinger Band and key round numbers, specifically around 1.394 and 1.39. The RSI is at 36, entering oversold territory. Therefore, it is recommended to go short at the highs.

Trading Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.399

Target Price: 1.386

Stop Loss: 1.41

Support: 1.393, 1.39, 1.386

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44