EUR/JPY regained upward momentum on Friday, recovering from early-session weakness as the Japanese Yen once again struggled to capitalize on mounting speculation of an upcoming Bank of Japan rate hike. The pair was last seen trading near 180.77 after dipping to an intraday low of 180.10, extending a familiar pattern of range-bound movement that has dominated trade since mid-November. Despite intraday swings, the underlying bias remains tilted toward the Euro, thanks in part to an improving economic backdrop across the Eurozone.

The Euro drew significant support from fresh GDP figures released by Eurostat, which painted a more resilient picture of the region’s economic landscape than previously anticipated. Third-quarter GDP expanded 0.3% on a quarterly basis, outperforming market forecasts of 0.2% and improving from the 0.2% growth recorded in the previous quarter. Year-on-year growth reached 1.4%, matching expectations and reinforcing the narrative that Europe’s recovery—although uneven—continues to slowly rebuild momentum.

The data highlighted broad improvement across key components of the Eurozone economy. Household spending edged higher, signaling modest improvement in consumer sentiment despite persistent price pressures. Government expenditure rose at a faster pace, offering fiscal support at a time when private sector confidence remains fragile. Investment activity also strengthened, rising nearly 1% and underscoring renewed confidence in long-term capital commitments. External trade contributed positively as both exports and imports increased, pointing to a gradual normalization of global supply and demand conditions.

Labour market trends were similarly encouraging. Employment in the Eurozone increased 0.2% during the quarter, surpassing analyst estimates and strengthening from the previous reading. On an annual basis, employment rose 0.6%, reinforcing the notion that the labour market remains tight and continues to provide a buffer against cyclical pressures. For currency markets, this relative macroeconomic stability has been sufficient to keep the Euro buoyant and limit aggressive Yen-driven pullbacks.

On the Japanese side, however, the dynamics remain far more complicated. Despite a growing chorus of speculation suggesting that the Bank of Japan may finally lift interest rates at its December 18–19 meeting, the Yen has been unable to sustain meaningful gains. Earlier in the week, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled a willingness to consider policy adjustments, triggering renewed expectations of an imminent exit from the central bank’s long-standing ultra-loose stance.

That sentiment was reinforced by a Bloomberg report suggesting that BoJ officials are prepared to raise rates at the upcoming meeting, provided no major economic or financial shock emerges in the near term. The report also indicated policymakers may communicate readiness to pursue further rate increases if inflation trends and economic conditions continue to develop as projected. Still, the same insiders cautioned that the BoJ remains unsure about how far interest rates should ultimately rise, reflecting a characteristically cautious approach to tightening.

The Yen’s inability to strengthen in response to these developments highlights ongoing skepticism among traders. Many remain wary given the BoJ’s history of signaling shifts only to pull back at the last moment. Others believe that even if a hike occurs, it may be more symbolic than structural, offering limited long-term support for the currency. With global risk sentiment relatively stable, the Yen has also been unable to attract its usual safe-haven flows.

Market attention now shifts to Monday’s incoming Japanese data batch, which includes labor earnings, current account figures, and the final Q3 GDP revision. These figures will play a critical role in shaping expectations heading into the December meeting. Stronger growth and earnings could bolster confidence in a rate hike, while weaker numbers may reintroduce doubts and weaken the Yen further.

From a technical standpoint, EUR/JPY’s structure remains broadly constructive despite the latest corrective dip. The pair closed below the 181.70 ceiling, signaling a short-term pause in bullish momentum, while stochastic indicators continue to reveal lingering negative pressure. Nonetheless, the decline remains shallow and does not threaten the broader upward trajectory as long as the pair maintains support near the 179.40 zone. The market’s repeated refusals to break below this key level reinforce its importance as the base of the current bullish structure.

The correction toward 180.10 appears to be part of a healthier consolidation pattern rather than the early stages of a reversal. Traders are expected to look for renewed bullish momentum in the coming sessions, especially if Eurozone macro conditions continue to firm or if Japanese data fail to significantly strengthen the case for a BoJ hike. A decisive break above 181.70 would reopen bullish pathways and potentially extend the recent uptrend.

For now, EUR/JPY is expected to oscillate between 179.65 and 181.70, with the overarching trend still favoring the upside as long as key support levels hold.

BUY EURJPY

ENTRY PRICE: 180.830

STOP LOSS: 180.00

TAKE PROFIT: 186.00

GBPUSD stormed to a five-week peak Thursday, delivering its largest one-day advance since April 2025. The move was fuelled by (i) an upward revision to high-frequency business-activity gauges, (ii) the dissipation of Budget-related tail-risk, and (iii) heightened market pricing that the FOMC will imminently embark on an easing cycle.

The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has declined for ten consecutive sessions. Should the skid extend it would mark the longest losing streak since the post-Bretton Woods float in 1971, further lubricating the upside in GBPUSD.

The proximate trigger was the final November S&P Global UK Composite PMI, which was revised materially higher from its flash estimate and spans both the services and manufacturing sectors, portraying a discernibly firmer growth trajectory. "The UK's economic backdrop is not as anaemic as initially feared," Danske Bank strategist Kirstine Kundby-Nielsen observed.

According to the final release from S&P Global on 3 December 2025, the UK Composite PMI for November was revised up by 0.7% to 51.2 from the 21 November flash estimate of 50.5. Although this remains below both the October final reading of 52.2 and the initial market consensus of 51.8, the index has now spent seven consecutive months above the 50.0 no-change mark, confirming that UK private-sector output continues to expand. The pace of growth, however, has eased compared with the previous month, pointing to a "modest expansion, solid resilience" regime.

At the sector level, the Services PMI was revised 0.8% higher to 51.3, beating the flash 50.5 and the market call of 51.0. The Manufacturing PMI was left unrevised at 50.2, still well ahead of the 49.3 consensus. The synchronized outperformance of the two core segments provided the main underpinning for the upward revision of the headline composite gauge.

Markets are increasingly pricing in a Fed rate cut next week, a move widely seen as pressuring the USD and lifting major pairs such as GBPUSD. According to CME's FedWatch tool, futures-implied odds for a 25 bp reduction at the December FOMC, taking the target range to 3.50%-3.75%, have surged to almost 87%, up from 63% a month ago.

The latest DOL release (week ending 29 Nov.) showed initial jobless claims fell 27,000 to 191 k after seasonal adjustment—the lowest print since Sep-2022 and well below the Reuters-consensus forecast of 220,000. Although the survey window included the Thanksgiving holiday, when filings can be volatile, the sub-200,000 reading is historically low and aligns with still-muted layoff announcements, easing fears of an abrupt labour-market unwind.

The upbeat print contrasts with Wednesday's ADP report, which revealed the sharpest drop in private payrolls in 2½ years. Continuing claims (week ended 22 Nov.) edged down to 1.939 m but remain elevated, consistent with the unemployment rate's climb from 4.3% in August to 4.4% in September.

Economists note that the labor market is currently in a "no-layoffs, no-hiring" stalemate. Key drivers include (i) a contraction in labor supply amid tighter immigration policy and (ii) downward pressure on demand for entry-level positions as AI adoption displaces routine tasks. Uncertainty stemming from the Trump administration's trade agenda is further damping hiring sentiment, particularly among small firms.

On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD is grinding higher along EMA12, the MACD "angel-kiss" re-cross keeps bulls in charge, Bollinger bands angle up with price tipped to tag the upper band around 1.339. RSI 69, still constructive.

On the daily chart, after clearing the EMA200 and punching the upper Bollinger, the pair eyes the 1.35 platform high. MACD bullish crossover and move back above zero affirm follow-through, yet RSI 64 warns momentum may fade on the test.

Therefore, the advised trading strategy is to long-first/short-second into 1.35 resistance.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 1.336

Target Price: 1.29

Stop Loss: 1.35

Support: 1.3/1.29/1.28

Resistance Levels: 1.34/1.342/1.35

The November Ivey Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for Canada fell below the growth-contraction threshold, indicating the first contraction in economic activity in six months, with concurrent weakening in employment. Seasonally adjusted data also showed a significant decline, reflecting widespread sluggishness in corporate procurement activities. Simultaneously, the auto loan default rate continues to rise, particularly among the youngest and oldest borrower demographics. Supply chain disruptions during the pandemic drove up prices for new and used vehicles, while the sharp interest rate hikes since 2022 significantly increased financing costs. Under the combined pressures of high inflation and housing cost burdens, more households are struggling to service their debt. To reduce monthly payments, many borrowers are extending loan maturities, which inadvertently elevates future financial risks; some vehicle owners now face loan balances exceeding vehicle values, increasing pressure on lenders and automakers. Amid economic and household financial stress, uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Canada trade relations further amplify risks. U.S. Trade Representative Greer revealed that President Trump may opt to withdraw from the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year, potentially negotiating bilateral agreements with Canada and Mexico separately. Trump has also hinted that if the three countries cannot reach consensus during upcoming review processes, the current agreement could be allowed to expire or be subject to renegotiation, introducing additional volatility into an already fragile business and investment climate. Trade outlook uncertainties have prompted more cautious market expectations for the Canadian dollar. Some analysts suggest that if trade negotiations proceed slowly and economic recovery lacks clear momentum, the Bank of Canada may be compelled to further cut interest rates. The central bank has already lowered its policy rate to the lower bound of the neutral zone and hinted at a possible pause in rate cuts; however, given weak economic data and rising external risks, forthcoming policy decisions will be increasingly challenging.

Based on data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) FedWatch Tool, the probability of Federal Reserve rate cuts has been reduced by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.50%–3.75%. The Fed's resolutely dovish stance is driven by worsening conditions in the U.S. labor market and expectations that inflation triggered by tariffs implemented under President Donald Trump will not be sustained. Despite significant declines in recent data, the overall labor market remains in a state of "stagnation": layoffs across various sectors are maintaining a relatively steady level, with recruitment efforts subdued. Reports indicate that in November, companies planned to lay off 71,321 employees, a 53% month-over-month decrease; however, total layoffs in the first eleven months of the year reached approximately 1.171 million, representing a 54% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with the technology sector particularly prominent due to integration of artificial intelligence into certain roles. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics' scheduled employment report, originally set for release on Friday, was delayed until December 16 due to the government shutdown. Economists generally believe the current labor market is in a phase of neither significant layoffs nor active hiring. Factors such as reduced labor supply, AI-driven job automation, and uncertainty stemming from Trump's trade policies are all viewed as suppressors of corporate recruitment.

In the 1W timeframe, the USDCAD exhibits a dark cloud cover candlestick pattern, with the price breaking below the EMA12. This suggests a high probability of further decline toward the EMA50 and the middle Bollinger Band, approximately around 1.392 and 1.388. The Bollinger Bands are contracting, and the short-term EMA12 is flattening, indicating consolidation near the EMA50. The MACD shows diminishing bullish momentum as its MACD line and signal line approach a death cross. The RSI is at 50, reflecting market indecision and indicating that the short-term correction is ongoing. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, with divergences among SMAs. After a MACD golden cross, the rebound momentum is weak, confirming bearish dominance. Support levels are near previous lows and round numbers at approximately 1.392 and 1.39. The RSI at 36 signals a pessimistic market sentiment. Therefore, it is recommended to go short before going long later.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 1.39

Target Price: 1.42

Stop Loss: 1.38

Support: 1.392, 1.39, 1.38

Resistance: 1.414, 1.42, 1.44

AUD/USD briefly rose above 0.6600, driven by commodity strength and some optimism about global risk sentiment. But the backdrop is turning ambiguous. Recent Australian data show household spending surged by 1.3% in October the largest rise in nearly two years which pushes up inflation risk and could force the RBA to keep monetary policy tighter for longer. Markets now expect the RBA to maintain the cash rate at 3.60% through 2026 rather than cut.

On the US side, the dollar (USD) had weakened recently due to dovish expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed), but that could reverse if upcoming data surprises to the upside or if risk sentiment shifts giving USD a rebound potential, which would weigh on AUD/USD.

This backdrop limited upside for AUD, possible USD bounce, and sticky inflation increases the risk that the recent AUD strength is unsustainable.

Sentiment seems to be re-assessing the Aussie rally. On one hand, investors had been supporting AUD via risk-on flows and commodity tailwinds. On the other, rising domestic inflation and hawkish RBA expectations have injected caution. Some traders may now view recent highs as a short-term peak rather than the start of a strong uptrend.

Globally, the USD remains vulnerable, but with markets on edge ahead of major US inflation data, any surprises might spark a USD rebound. If that happens, risk assets including AUD could be hit. The mixed sentiment around rate expectations and global risk makes AUD/USD more prone to reversal than conviction buying.

On M15, AUD/USD’s recent climb toward and just above 0.6600 likely pushed price near the upper band of a 20-period Bollinger channel, suggesting overextension. If price fails to sustain above the mid-band (likely near 0.6580–0.6590) and begins to show hesitation (small candles, long upper wicks), that often signals a mean-reversion move downward.

Given the tougher macro outlook for AUD and potential USD strength, the pair may re-test support zones near 0.6560–0.6540 (lower Bollinger band / prior congestion). A breakdown below those could open deeper levels (0.6510–0.6480) if risk sentiment deteriorates.

Ichimoku on M15 would likely reflect a stretched up-move: price could be far above Tenkan-sen/Kijun-sen, with lagging span warning of weak support below setting up a context where a “pullback to equilibrium” is plausible.

If we overlay a momentum oscillator (e.g. stochastic or RSI) on M15, it's reasonable to expect overbought conditions from the recent rally increasing the odds of a short-term bearish correction.

Entry: 0.661

Take Profit: 0.6550–0.6540

Stop Loss: 0.6645–0.6650

Bitcoin recently took a heavy hit, falling as low as the mid-$80,000 range amid a broad crypto sell-off and macroeconomic uncertainty. But during the last 48–72 hours, BTC has recovered sharply reclaiming the $90,000 region, and now stabilizing in the low $90Ks. The rebound seems supported by renewed investment flows, possibly including institutional interest, and by broader dollar weakness and softer bond yields which tend to lift risk assets like crypto. At the same time, recent commentary from major financial institutions projecting long-term price potential for Bitcoin provides a macro narrative that may lure longer-term buyers.

Investor sentiment in crypto appears cautiously optimistic. After the sharp drawdown, many market participants seem to view the recent dip as a wash-out, possibly offering a buying opportunity rather than the start of a deeper crash. Some large-scale forecasts suggest substantial upside over the next 6–12 months if certain macro and sector conditions hold.

The rebound from $84,000+ to ~$92,500 in short order has returned BTC to modest positive territory for the year, which may revive confidence among both retail and institutional holders.

On recent price action, Bitcoin’s rebound off the lows suggests liquidity-seeking behavior and a potential short-term bottom formation. The bounce back above $90,000 and stabilizing near $92,400 suggests demand is returning. If we were to chart BTC on a shorter timeframe like M15 or H1, one might expect a recovery wave with momentum backing further upside especially if price breaks above recent intraday resistance around $93,000–$94,000. Given volatility, this could lead to a test of $95,000–$96,000 in the near term. The wider macro-fundamental backdrop (lower yields, risk-on sentiment) supports such a move.

Entry: $92,500–$92,600 BUY BTC/USD

Take Profit (near-term): $96,000–$97,000

Stop Loss: $89,500–$90,000

Recent U.S. economic data revealed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell below economists' estimates for the week ending November 29th. Initial jobless claims came in at 191,000, comfortably lower than the 220,000 forecast and representing a decrease from last week’s figures, which were revised slightly higher from 216,000 to 218,000.

Meanwhile, continuing claims for the week ending November 22nd were recorded at 1.939 million, a slight drop from the prior week’s 1.943 million. Separately, the Challenger Job Report disclosed that employers announced 71,321 job cuts in November. While this marked a 24% increase compared to the figures from the previous year, it was a notable 53% decrease from the elevated number announced in October.

Despite the recent improvement in initial claims, market participants still price in more than an 85% probability of a rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December 9-10 meeting, a sentiment largely sustained by Wednesday’s disappointing ADP employment change data.

Trilateral negotiations between the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine aimed at achieving peace continue without clear progress. Russian President Vladimir Putin commented that his meeting with U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff was "very useful." In recent hours, however, Russian attacks have resulted in five fatalities in the Donetsk and Kherson regions. Several Ukrainian representatives are scheduled to meet with Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Washington this Thursday.

In the Eurozone, data released by Eurostat revealed that Retail Sales stagnated in October, following an upwardly revised 0.1% increase in September, and missed the market expectation for further 0.1% growth. On a year-over-year basis, however, sales increased at a rate of 1.5%, surpassing the 1.4% forecast and exceeding the 1.0% reading from September.

The Euro has recently received support from strong final figures in the HCOB Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) released on Wednesday. Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde delivered positive commentary regarding the Eurozone economy, assessing that resilient household spending and a strong labor market are supporting the region's economy, and that core inflation remains consistent. These comments suggest the ECB is likely to maintain stable interest rates following its December 18th meeting.

The EUR/USD pair is currently exhibiting a bearish reaction after reaching the 1.1670 resistance zone, a level that previously triggered a sharp move to the downside on October 28th. If these conditions persist, and we observe a strong rejection once more, a downward move could ensue, targeting the ascending trendline support located near 1.1522. This zone is critical, as the sustained lack of new lower lows is essential for maintaining the longer-term bullish trend.

Adding pressure for a pullback, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has reached the 70 level, indicating overbought conditions. This will alert bears to potential shorting opportunities from the current resistance. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely clustered at 1.1588 and 1.1583, respectively. A decisive close below these MAs would likely act as a magnet, accelerating the price action toward the downside. Conversely, an upward break above the 1.1670 resistance level would invalidate the bearish setup, potentially opening the path for a more pronounced rally.

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 1.1670

Target price: 1.1522

Stop loss: 1.1710

Validity: Dec 16, 2025 15:00:00