Gold Extends Recovery as Weak US Jobs Data Pressures Dollar

Traders' Opinions

Summary:

Gold held near a one-and-a-half-week high as weaker US jobs data reduced Fed rate-hike expectations and pressured the Dollar. However, uncertainty around US-Iran talks kept some geopolitical caution in play.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

TRADING

4180.07

Entry Price

4385.00

4000.00

4166.63 +43.51 +1.06%

0.0

Pips

Flat

4000.00

Exit Price

4180.07

Entry Price

4385.00

Gold strengthened for a third straight session on Friday, trading near a one-and-a-half-week high as softer US labor market data reduced expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes and weakened the US Dollar. The metal is now on track for its first weekly gain in five weeks, with traders watching the $4,200 level as the next major upside barrier.

Thursday's US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed the economy added only 57,000 jobs in June, well below expectations for 110,000. May's figure was also revised lower to 129,000 from 172,000, confirming a clear slowdown in hiring momentum. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly eased to 4.2%, the broader message from the report was that labor market conditions are cooling.

That shift has softened expectations for a more aggressive Federal Reserve policy path. Markets have scaled back bets on future rate hikes, moving from expectations of one or two increases in 2026 to between zero and one. Lower rate expectations are supportive for gold because bullion does not generate interest income and tends to benefit when yields and the Dollar weaken.

The US Dollar remained near a two-week low after the jobs report, adding further support to XAU/USD. In my view, the latest rebound in gold is being driven less by panic demand and more by a proper repricing of Fed policy expectations. If US data continues to soften, the metal could attract more buyers on dips.

Still, geopolitical risks remain a key wild card. Reports that US officials fear Israel may attempt to target Iranian negotiators have raised concerns that fragile peace talks could collapse. Iran's military has also warned that any US interference in the Strait of Hormuz would receive a swift response, keeping Middle East risk firmly on the market's radar.

Trading volumes are expected to remain thin as US stock and bond markets are closed for Independence Day. Even so, the near-term backdrop appears supportive for gold, with weaker US data, lower Fed hike expectations and geopolitical uncertainty all helping to limit downside risks.

Technical Analysis

Gold has shifted into a stronger bullish recovery structure on the 1-hour chart, with price trading near $4,180 after breaking above the key $4,140–$4,150 resistance zone. The latest move marks a clear change in short-term momentum, as buyers have defended the $3,960–$3,975 support area and pushed price into a higher-high, higher-low formation.

The breakout above $4,150 is technically important because this zone had previously acted as resistance during the recovery phase. Now that price is holding above it, the same area should act as immediate support. As long as Gold remains above $4,150, the bullish recovery remains intact.

On the upside, the next major resistance is located around $4,260–$4,270. A sustained break above this zone would likely attract fresh momentum buying and open the door toward $4,375–$4,385, which aligns with the projected bullish move shown on the chart.

On the downside, a break below $4,150 would weaken the recovery setup and expose $4,050, followed by stronger support around $3,975.

Momentum remains positive, with price consolidating above former resistance rather than rejecting lower. This suggests the current pause is more likely continuation than exhaustion.

TRADE RECOMMENDATION

BUY GOLD

ENTRY PRICE: 4,180

STOP LOSS: 4,000

TAKE PROFIT : 4,385

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education