GBPJPY strengthened for a second straight session on Thursday and retreated back below 207.00 during the European session. Spot prices are approaching the recent top, prompting cautious bullish positioning.

The recent rise in the pound was supported by the easing of UK budget uncertainty and a broadly weaker dollar. This in turn has been viewed as a positive factor for GBPJPY. However, slowing inflation and cooling labor market conditions have led markets to widely expect the Bank of England (BoE) to cut rates later this month, limiting aggressive GBP long bets.

In Japan, the yen continues to maintain relative strength, mainly supported by the BoJ’s hawkish stance, and this has capped further upside in GBPJPY. Three Japanese government sources reported that the BoJ is highly likely to raise rates in December, and the government is expected to tolerate the decision.

Sources indicated the BoJ appears ready to raise its policy rate from 0.5% to 0.75%, a signal echoed by Governor Kazuo Ueda in his speech on Monday. This would be the first hike since January.

One source stated: “If the BoJ wants to raise rates this month, they can go ahead. That is the government’s stance.” He added that a December hike is virtually certain.

Ueda said Monday that the BoJ would consider the “pros and cons” of a rate hike this month, suggesting a high likelihood of action at the December 18–19 meeting. His remarks drove market pricing to roughly an 80% probability of a December hike, although some participants are watching how dovish Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s administration might react. Market focus may shift toward how far the BoJ signals rates could ultimately rise, a topic on which Ueda remains deliberately vague.

GBPJPY resumed its upward intraday trajectory, once again breaking above the 207.00 level. The uptrend from 184.35 continues and is poised to retest the 208.09 high. A firm break above this resistance would confirm the resumption of the long-term bullish trend.

However, with a December BoJ rate hike almost certain, bullish conviction is limited. A break below the 205.17 support would turn the outlook bearish, potentially triggering a deeper correction toward the 55-day moving average (currently at 203.12).

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 206.85

Target Price: 203.12

Stop Loss: 208.50

Valid Until: December 21, 2025 23:55:00

Support: 206.26 / 205.46 / 205.21

Resistance Levels: 207.22 / 207.35 / 207.82

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand announced last week a 25 basis point reduction in the official cash rate to 2.25%. The central bank indicated that future monetary policy adjustments will be contingent on economic growth and inflation prospects, with analysts suggesting that the current easing cycle may be nearing an end. This could potentially strengthen the New Zealand dollar exchange rate. In her inaugural public appearance as the new Governor, Anna Breman clarified the bank's future policy priorities. During her address to the Parliamentary Finance and Expenditure Committee, she emphasized that the Reserve Bank remains committed to its core mandates: maintaining low and stable inflation, ensuring financial stability, and promoting a secure and efficient payments system. While acknowledging that economic growth and employment levels influence inflation dynamics, Anna Breman underscored that the primary tool of monetary policy—the official cash rate—is fundamentally aimed at controlling inflation. She highlighted that high inflation disproportionately impacts low-income households and, in the long term, could hinder healthy employment market development. Regarding the relationship between fiscal and monetary policy, she delineated responsibilities, stating that fiscal policy falls under the jurisdiction of the government, while the Reserve Bank's focus is on inflation targeting. The New Zealand economy is currently experiencing localized adjustments, characterized by a surplus in real estate supply and softening asking prices, shifting market dominance toward buyers. Meanwhile, the new Governor has explicitly prioritized inflation control, indicating that monetary policy in the near term is likely to retain a tightening bias to stabilize the macroeconomic environment.

The persistent weakening of the U.S. dollar index reflects market confidence in the Federal Reserves imminent interest rate cut cycle next week. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate cut has risen to 89%. This dovish pricing continues to pressure the dollar, as investors adjust positions to accommodate a more accommodative monetary policy stance, impeding substantial rebound prospects. Concurrently, the unexpectedly sluggish ADP private payrolls report has further weighed on the dollar. Data indicates a decline of 32,000 private sector jobs in November—the largest drop since March 2023—significantly below market expectations of a 40,000 gain. This decline underscores increasing employment market pressures amid the Feds policy pivot, with small businesses bearing the brunt of layoffs. Companies with fewer than 50 employees shed a total of 120,000 jobs, including 74,000 layoffs from firms with 20 to 49 employees. Conversely, large enterprises with over 50 employees added 90,000 jobs, highlighting notable labor market segmentation. Signs of a weakening labor market are also reflected in wage data. A report published in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab reveals that turnover workers experienced a 6.3% increase in compensation, the lowest level since February 2021. Employees remaining in their current roles saw a wage growth of 4.4%. This data is derived from payroll records covering over 26 million private-sector employees in the U.S. Historically, economists have generally viewed the labor market as characterized by low hiring and low firing activity; however, recent layoffs and announced restructuring plans by major corporations such as Apple and Verizon Communications may contribute to rising unemployment rates.

In the 1M timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are narrowing, while SMAs are flattening, suggesting a potential trend reversal. Last month formed a doji candlestick pattern, followed this month by a bullish upward open, with a likely rebound toward the EMA50 at approximately 0.61. The MACD momentum shows weakening bearish divergence, and the RSI is at 44, reflecting prevailing bearish sentiment. However, the absence of lower lows suggests a bullish divergence, indicating a continuation of the upward correction. In the 4H timeframe, the Bollinger Bands are expanding upwards, with SMAs diverging upwards, and the MACD has formed a golden cross without the MACD line and signal line retracing near the zero-axis. This indicates a bullish trend, although the upward momentum is waning, leading to a short-term sideways consolidation. The RSI stands at 66, with market participants predominantly buying. If the price remains sustainably above 0.57, there is a high probability of a rally toward approximately 0.583. It is recommended to go long at the lows in the short term.

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 0.574

Target Price: 0.61

Stop Loss: 0.566

Support: 0.57, 0.566, 0.55

Resistance: 0.58, 0.583, 0.61

The market's focus is now squarely on next week's FOMC meeting and the incoming data slate. With a string of softening macro prints, the implied probability of a Fed cut has been repriced higher, dragging both the DXY and real 10-yr UST yields lower and thereby providing a structural tail-wind for gold. However, investors remain cautious amid the tug-of-war between rate-cut expectations and safe-haven demand, frequently taking profit after short-term gains and leaving gold prices whipsawing within a tight range.

ETF inflows and the continued bid from official-sector buyers (notably EM central banks) still form the medium-term demand floor, but fast-money positioning is hyper-sensitive to scheduled macro catalysts (NFP, PCE) as well as headline-driven geopol risk. Any print or headline that deviates from consensus can trigger an outsized volatility spike.

Moreover, global-rate complex and sovereign-bond flow dynamics are exerting cross-asset gravitational pull on precious-metal valuations. In the Asian session, a tail-less, exceptionally high bid-to-cover ratio at the 10-yr JGB reopening compressed the benchmark yield by around 4 bp. This regional duration richening, convolved with a softening DXY, is re-pricing the cross-currency carry of gold and amplifying physical uptake in yen terms. With the Fed in blackout, the market is warehousing delta risk into tomorrow's claims and core PCE releases, opting for a "tactical sideline" posture that is powering rapid risk-off/risk-on whipsaws between safe-haven bullion and cyclical beta.

At the macro level, the dominant fundamental narrative today is that dovish policy repricing supplies cyclical tailwinds, yet event-driven headline risk and systematic profit-taking are jointly imposing an asymmetric ceiling that frustrates the emergence of a sustained directional extension.

From the daily chart, price action has completed a textbook symmetrical-triangle breakout. The clearance of the 4245 structural high validates the pattern and projects the next measured-move objective to 4300.

Immediate short-term resistance is now the 4200–4241 band. A high-conviction, volume-confirmed breakout followed by a daily close above 4241 activates the 4300 extension. Support is watched at 4175–4160. Violation on a closing basis would open a mean-reversion probe toward the 4130–4100 liquidity pocket.

Technically, the simple-moving-average architecture remains in perfect bullish order, underpinning trend persistence. RSI is holding in the upper-neutral band, evidencing positive momentum divergence without extreme overbought conditions.

A thin-volume, news-driven spike into the 4241–4300 corridor would flag a bull-trap and elevate the probability of an intraday bullish-to-bearish reversal (technical give-back).

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 4190.00

Target Price: 4290.00

Stop Loss: 4150.00

Valid Until: December 18, 2025, 23:00:00

Support: 4175.05/4163.82

Resistance Levels: 4264.66/4300.00

The metals complex has been rallying for several consecutive months, but silver's advance has far outpaced the broader space. The key driver: silver is no longer valued merely as a precious metal, but as an industrial necessity. Macro and micro fundamentals have converged in a way that is unique to the white metal.

Rate-cut expectations are lifting precious-metal prices. After weeks of uncertainty, the market is once again positioned for easing. Lower rates undermine the U.S. dollar and reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding metals.

In 2025 global solar installations hit a record high, pushing silver's industrial demand to levels that have driven exchange inventories to decade lows. Photovoltaic demand has exploded over the past five years; incremental demand from newer industries remains comparatively modest. The combination of inelastic supply and elastic demand growth underpins the silver bull market.

Financial flows now dominate the marginal-demand equation. Expectations of a secular decline in fiat-money confidence, sticky inflation, and abundant liquidity are the primary re-rating catalysts. Unlike gold, silver's industrial offtake cannot be substituted easily, and mine supply cannot be ramped quickly. While gold serves as the core hedge, accelerating momentum typically channels hot money into silver, which offers higher beta. Once the macro narrative turns constructive, speculative appetite expands.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is an 89% probability that the FOMC will lower the federal-funds target by 25 bps to 3.50%-3.75% at its December meeting. U.S. labor-market conditions appear to be deteriorating further, entrenching the dovish narrative. The ADP employment report showed 32,000 job losses in November, versus consensus for a 5,000 gain, pressuring the US dollar.

On the 1-hour chart, Bollinger Bands are diverging downward and the moving-average ribbon is fanning out bearishly. Price is riding the lower band while the MACD has printed a "death cross" and bullish momentum is fading. This bearish divergence suggests further downside. RSI at 33 has slipped into oversold territory. Immediate support sits at the psychological 57 level and the EMA200 at 55.2.

On the daily, the Bands are still flaring upward and the MAs remain in bullish formation, so the macro up-trend is intact. Yet a Doji Star followed by a large bearish candle makes a retracement toward the EMA12 highly probable. A decisive break below that moving average would flip the trend. RSI reads 68 but its peaks are descending, hinting waning momentum and a potential turning point.

Therefore, traders are recommended to look for shorts on strength.

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 57.9

Target Price: 50

Stop Loss: 60

Support: 55/53/50

Resistance Levels: 59/60/65

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) is set to be heavily influenced by November labor market data, scheduled for release on Friday. The consensus forecast anticipates the Canadian Unemployment Rate will tick higher, reaching 7.0% from the 6.9% rate recorded in October. Meanwhile, the overall size of the labor force is expected to remain generally stable.

The latest third-quarter Labor Productivity figures offered a slightly favorable signal for the Canadian Dollar earlier this week. Productivity increased by 0.9% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ), significantly improving from the -1.0% contraction in the preceding quarter and comfortably surpassing the 0.4% forecast. Attention is now firmly fixed on Friday's labor market release, which is considered crucial ahead of the Bank of Canada's (BoC) interest rate decision on December 10th.

The latest U.S. economic data presented a conflicting view of the economy's health. The ISM Services PMI edged up to 52.6 in November from 52.4, surpassing the 52.1 expectation and signaling sustained expansion in the service sector. Conversely, the ADP Employment Change report showed a surprising fall of 32,000 in private sector payrolls in November, drastically missing forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The revised October figure was also downgraded to a lower gain of 47,000. These cuts confirm that private businesses shed 32,000 jobs in November, signaling a clear deceleration from the previous month’s gains.

Amidst the softer labor data, political commentary continues to fuel speculation of a rapid rate-cutting cycle. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair in early 2026, confirming his statement from Sunday: "I know who I’m going to choose, yes. We will be announcing it." Further adding to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, has emerged as the favored candidate, viewed as an ally who supports the President's call for faster and deeper rate reductions.

Market participants are currently pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Despite the dovish outlook, U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while U.S. real yields hold stable at 1.856%.

The USDCAD pair appears to be charting an Inverse Head and Shoulders (IHS) pattern, a classic bullish reversal formation. The recent support level at 1.3940, which was also touched on October 8th, forms the shoulders of the pattern. The local low of 1.3888, reached on October 29th, constitutes the head. Price action has already reacted strongly upward upon reaching this level. If this pattern confirms, we could anticipate a bullish recovery targeting the 1.4063 resistance zone, which represents the most significant short-term hurdle.

Further supporting the bullish case, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached the 26 level, entering clear oversold territory. This extreme reading is likely to attract buyers to initiate long positions from this zone. The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) are closely aligned at 1.4032 and 1.4027, respectively. Their proximity to the local resistance suggests they will act as a price magnet toward those levels during a recovery. Conversely, a strong downward break below the pattern's neckline would invalidate the IHS setup and open the path for a more pronounced decline.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 1.3960

Target price: 1.4060

Stop loss: 1.3900

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00

The latest data from the U.S. presented a conflicting view of the economy. The ISM Services PMI edged up slightly to 52.6 in November from 52.4, surpassing the 52.1 expectation and signaling sustained expansion in the crucial service sector. Conversely, the ADP Employment Change report showed that private sector payrolls surprisingly fell by 32,000 in November, drastically missing forecasts for a 5,000 increase. The October figure was also revised to a lower gain of 47,000. These data points confirm that private businesses cut 32,000 jobs in November, missing the estimate for a 10,000 increase and signaling a deceleration from October's revised 49,000 gain.

Amidst the softer labor data, political commentary continues to fuel rate-cut speculation. U.S. President Donald Trump stated on Tuesday that he would announce his nominee for the next Fed Chair in early 2026, confirming his Sunday comment: "I know who I’m going to choose, yes. We will be announcing it." Adding fuel to the dovish speculation is an unconfirmed report suggesting that former White House Economic Advisor, Kevin Hassett, is the favored candidate. Hassett is seen as an ally who supports President Trump's call for faster and deeper rate reductions to stimulate the economy.

Market participants are currently pricing in an approximately 88% probability of a 25 basis point (bp) rate reduction at the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. U.S. Treasury yields remain firm, with the 10-year Treasury yield sitting at 4.086%, while real yields hold stable at 1.856%.

In Switzerland, the latest inflation figures for November arrived mixed. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell 0.2% month-over-month (MoM), which aligned with expectations and followed a 0.3% decrease in the prior month. However, the annual rate fell to 0% from 0.1%, landing below the 0.1% forecast.

These mixed inflation readings reinforce expectations that the Swiss National Bank (SNB) will maintain its policy rate unchanged in December. Recent commentary from Chairman Martin Schlegel indicated that the threshold for returning to negative interest rates remains "high," although the SNB is prepared to cut if conditions necessitate it. Board member Petra Tschudin also noted that inflation is expected to increase slightly in the coming quarters.

The USD/CHF pair has rapidly recovered to the 0.8000 psychological level, a point where the price initiated a strong bullish recovery on December 1st. This quick reclaiming of the level suggests that a renewed upward move may be underway from this zone. The bullish case is supported by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which reached the 27 level , clearly signaling oversold conditions. This extreme reading is expected to attract buyers, with the initial objective being the bearish trendline resistance, near the $0.8025$ level.

The 100-period and 200-period Moving Averages (MAs) on the 1-hour chart are located at $0.8031$ and $0.8049$, respectively. Notably, the 100-period MA aligns closely with the bearish trendline and the $0.618$ Fibonacci retracement level. This confluence zone suggests a high probability that the current corrective move will be drawn toward these levels, where renewed selling pressure could reassert itself.

Trading direction: Buy

Entry price: 0.8001

Target price: 0.8025

Stop loss: 0.7985

Validity: Dec 12, 2025 15:00:00