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EUR/JPY Market Analysis: Bullish Momentum Indicates Potential Test of Weekly High
Summary:
EUR/JPY has shown promising signs of upward momentum, positioning itself to potentially challenge the weekly high at 150.06.
CLOSED
150.200
ENTRY
151.300
TGT
149.500
SL
149.533 +0.181 +0.12%
700
Points
Loss
149.500
SL
149.500
CLOSING
150.200
ENTRY
151.300
TGT
EUR/JPY has shown promising signs of upward momentum, positioning itself to potentially challenge the weekly high at 150.06. The exchange rate has climbed back above the crucial level of 149.60, representing the 100% Fibonacci extension. Additionally, the positive slope in the 50-Day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 145.25 suggests a potential upward trajectory for EUR/JPY, as long as it remains above this moving average.
Bullish ScenarioA successful break above the weekly high of 150.06 could lead to another attempt at reaching the March 2008 low of 151.69. This would indicate a strong bullish sentiment in the market. However, if EUR/JPY struggles to defend the weekly low of 148.84, it may consolidate within the monthly range.
Bearish Scenario
On the other hand, a break or close below the support level at 148.30, representing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, may exert downward pressure on EUR/JPY. In such a scenario, the currency pair could potentially target the range between 146.20 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement) and 147.00 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement). Notably, this range aligns closely with the monthly low at 146.13.
EURJPY Score and Analysis
Currently, EURJPY has a score of +4, which corresponds to a Buy rating, after evaluating multiple categories.
Institutional Traders
The EUR exhibits a long percentage of 78.31% among institutional traders, while the JPY has a long percentage of 23.83%. This category receives a +2 rating, indicating a preference for the EUR among institutional traders.
Retail Traders
Retail traders' sentiment shows 22% long positions and 78% short positions on EURJPY. Extreme readings from retail traders can provide useful insights. With the current reading, EURJPY receives a +1 rating, suggesting a potential opposite market movement to the retail crowd.
Seasonality
Historical data reveals a score of +1, indicating a tendency for this market to rise during the current month based on past patterns.
Trend Analysis: The trend analysis, based on the daily chart and the 5, 8, and 21 Exponential Moving Averages, results in a +2 score. The alignment of these moving averages signifies a strong trend either upward or downward, suggesting a positive trend for EUR/JPY in this case.
Fundamentals
Considering fundamental factors, including GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates, it appears that these factors favor the JPY. However, further analysis of these fundamental aspects is required for a comprehensive assessment.
EUR/JPY demonstrates bullish momentum as it approaches a potential test of the weekly high at 150.06. The market analysis, based on various indicators, including institutional and retail trader sentiment, seasonality, trend analysis, and selected fundamental factors, suggests a favorable outlook for the EUR/JPY currency pair. Traders and investors should closely monitor key support and resistance levels to assess the currency pair's future direction accurately.
TRADE RECOMMENDATION
BUY EURJPY
ENTRY PRICE : 150.200
STOPLOSS :149.500
TAKE PROFIT : 151.300
Risk Warnings and Investment Disclaimers
You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading with strategies. Following any strategies or investment methodologies is the potential for loss. The content on the site is being provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You alone are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, or securities, or strategy, or any other product is suitable for you based on your investment objectives and financial situation.
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Warren Takunda is an experienced financial analyst and CFO at Verge Capital in Dubai, with a proven track record in the finance industry. He leads the finance team and is responsible for financial planning, analysis, and reporting. Warren has extensive experience in financial modeling and investment analysis, which enables him to provide valuable insights to clients.
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