CPI Hits! Gold Nears Bottom Zone

Tank

Summary:

Traders are awaiting the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index report for June.

BUY XAUUSD

EXP

PENDING

3900.00

Entry Price

4600.00

3600.00

4021.13 +19.24 +0.48%

Pips

PENDING

3600.00

Exit Price

3900.00

Entry Price

4600.00

Fundamentals

U.S. President Trump has reinstated the blockade on Iranian ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz and demanded that Iran pay a 20% fee on all other goods transported through the waterway. Trump also stated that the U.S. will continue to target Iran, saying, “We’re going to hit them hard tonight, and we’re going to hit them hard tomorrow.” U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation data is set to be released later today and is drawing significant attention. Analysts expect the overall CPI for June to decline by 0.1% month-over-month, while the core CPI is projected to rise by 0.3% over the same period. If the actual results come in weaker than expected, it could put pressure on the U.S. dollar and provide short-term support for dollar-denominated commodity prices.

Waller believes that, at current policy interest rate levels, there is still a possibility that inflation will gradually return to the 2% target, but there is also a risk that data in the coming weeks will show inflation remaining elevated or even accelerating again. If this were to occur, the Federal Reserve would need to further tighten monetary policy in the near term. He is particularly concerned that recent price pressures are gradually spreading to broader sectors of the economy—rather than being limited to the effects of higher import tariffs or rising energy prices—which could indicate that the U.S. is facing more persistent systemic inflationary pressures that require a response through interest rate hikes.

Technical Analysis

On the four-hour chart, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, the moving averages are diverging downward, and the MACD fast and slow lines continue to trade below the 0 line, indicating that the bearish trend remains intact. The RSI stands at 36, indicating the market has entered oversold territory and a rebound could occur at any time. On the daily chart, the Bollinger Bands are widening downward, and the moving averages are diverging downward. With the RSI at 38, market sentiment remains deeply pessimistic, making it highly likely that the price will test the lower Bollinger Band. However, since gold is nearing its bottom, the recommended strategy is to buy on dips.

Trading Recommendation

Trading Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3900

Target Price: 4600

Stop-Loss Price: 3600

Support Levels: 3900, 3600, 3500

Resistance Levels: 4200, 4300, 4600

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CPI Hits! Gold Nears Bottom Zone

Risk Disclosure