Bearish Reaction at Key Resistance Could Extend Downward Move

Forex

Economic

Summary:

The MACD shows a bullish histogram that is rapidly losing depth, while the signal lines are already positioned below the neutral zone, keeping the favored move to the downside.

SELL USDCHF

EXP

TRADING

0.80915

Entry Price

0.79110

0.81700

0.80950 +0.00063 +0.08%

0.0

Pips

Flat

0.79110

Exit Price

0.80915

Entry Price

0.81700

In Switzerland, inflation surprised to the downside in July. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) recorded a monthly decline of 0.1%, coming in below expectations that pointed to an unchanged reading. The main contribution to this moderation came from the transport component, where prices fell 0.4% month-over-month, in contrast to the 0.6% increase expected by the market.

At the component level, domestic prices rose 0.5% year-over-year, while imported goods prices remained stable compared to the previous year. This trajectory suggests a reduction in pressures associated with imported energy costs, which had contributed to the inflationary uptick observed in previous months following tensions in the Middle East.

The latest projection from the Swiss National Bank (SNB) anticipates average year-over-year inflation of 0.7% during the third quarter. However, the most recent data point to a more moderate path, with quarterly inflation near 0.5%, sitting approximately 0.2 percentage points below official forecasts. The decline in fuel prices has been one of the primary drivers behind this slowdown and, should this trend persist, inflation could continue to track below the monetary authority's estimated levels.

On the geopolitical front, negotiations regarding the Strait of Hormuz continue to draw attention. A spokesperson for Iran's Foreign Ministry noted that Tehran and Oman maintain talks over the situation in the strategic waterway. According to reports, Iranian authorities are evaluating whether to allow European involvement in demining operations in the area. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump publicly reiterated the possibility of a near-term agreement with Iran on denuclearization, feeding expectations of an eventual reduction in regional tensions.

In the United States, labor data showed signs of gradual moderation. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) reflected a decline in available openings to 7.36 million in June, down from the 7.54 million recorded the previous month and falling slightly below forecasts. Nonetheless, the low level of layoffs continues to suggest a relatively balanced labor market, with approximately one job opening per unemployed person.

On the other hand, the Department of Commerce reported that the trade deficit narrowed to $73.3 billion in June from $77.6 billion recorded previously, showing a moderate improvement in the external sector.

Looking ahead to coming days, market focus will center on key U.S. labor market indicators. Expectations point to the ADP report showing the creation of 70,000 private sector jobs during July, down from the 98,000 recorded in June. Subsequently, investors will closely track weekly jobless claims and, especially, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, where an increase of approximately 80,000 jobs is anticipated. Bearish Reaction at Key Resistance Could Extend Downward Move_1

Bearish Reaction at Key Resistance Could Extend Downward Move_1

Technical Analysis

USDCHF has begun to find a downside reaction after reaching the 0.8205 level on June 29. Now, resistance at 0.8107 has shown a bearish reaction. The 100 and 200-period moving averages also sit in this vicinity at 0.8118 and 0.8098, respectively; with price having already closed below these levels and reacting lower once again upon approaching them, it could expand its downside move with targets at the local support level located at 0.7911.

Looking at the oscillators, the RSI currently sits at the 45 level—below neutral ground and with ample room to continue its path lower—having failed to cross above the 50 level, displaying resistance to resuming upward momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD shows a bullish histogram that is rapidly losing depth, while the signal lines are already positioned below the neutral zone, keeping the favored move to the downside.

Trading Recommendations

Trading direction: Sell

Entry price: 0.8092

Target price: 0.7911

Stop loss: 0.8170

Validity: Aug 14, 2026 15:00:00

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Bearish Reaction at Key Resistance Could Extend Downward Move

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