Rising Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Could Trigger a New Upswing in Natural Gas

Summary:

Trump's latest hawkish remarks have heightened market concerns over Middle East energy security. His comments regarding potential military action against Iran and control over key energy infrastructure have raised fears of disruptions to the global LNG supply chain. Supported by escalating geopolitical tensions and expectations surrounding inventory data, natural gas prices may remain biased to the upside.

BUY NAT.GAS

EXP

TRADING

3.160

Entry Price

3.745

2.940

3.110 -0.001 -0.03%

0.0

Pips

Flat

2.940

Exit Price

3.160

Entry Price

3.745

Fundamentals

Trump recently stated that the United States would launch severe military action against Iran and suggested that key energy infrastructure, including Kharg Island, could eventually come under U.S. control. He claimed that Iran's navy, air force, air defense systems, and much of its offensive capability had already been significantly weakened, adding that the U.S. would ultimately gain control over related oil and natural gas resources.

While these remarks remain political rhetoric at this stage, their implications for global energy markets cannot be ignored. Kharg Island is one of Iran's most important crude oil export hubs and a critical node within the Persian Gulf energy transportation network. It is located in the highly sensitive region surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20% of global oil shipments and serves as a vital artery for the global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade. For major exporters such as Qatar, this maritime route carries irreplaceable strategic importance. Any further escalation of military tensions in the region that disrupts shipping traffic through the strait could result in a significant supply shock to global natural gas markets.

According to risk assessments from the International Energy Agency (IEA) and several market institutions, geopolitical risks in the Middle East are no longer confined to crude oil markets. Their impact is increasingly spreading into the natural gas sector. Investors have begun repricing the risk of potential supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, providing additional geopolitical risk premium support for natural gas prices.

Meanwhile, traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. natural gas inventory data. A larger-than-expected drawdown would reinforce expectations of tighter supply-demand conditions and could provide another catalyst for higher prices. Although the U.S. dollar has remained supported by safe-haven flows and inflation data that met market expectations, growing concerns over energy supply disruptions continue to be the dominant driver behind the energy complex.

Rising Risks in the Strait of Hormuz Could Trigger a New Upswing in Natural Gas_1

Technical Analysis

From a technical perspective, natural gas remains above its medium-term ascending trendline and is currently trading near $3.156. Prices recently pulled back from local highs but found solid support around the trendline, suggesting that bulls continue to maintain control of the broader uptrend.

Fibonacci extension analysis indicates that, provided current support holds, upside targets are located at:38.2% Extension: $3.157,50.0%, Extension: $3.207,61.8% Extension: $3.256,76.4% Extension: $3.317.

Should geopolitical tensions continue to intensify and attract additional capital into the energy sector, natural gas could eventually challenge the full Fibonacci extension target at $3.745, which also represents a significant medium-term objective within the current bullish structure.

Trading Recommendation

Trade Direction: Buy

Entry Price: 3.153

Target Price: 3.745

Stop Loss: 2.940

Valid Until: July 10, 2026, 23:55

Key Support Levels:3.130\3.096\3.075

Key Resistance Levels:3.210\3.267\3.381

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