Bears Remain in Control After Key Trendline Breakdown, Deeper Declines May Follow

Summary:

Bitcoin has accelerated lower after breaking below its long-term ascending trendline. The cryptocurrency has not only lost a critical structural support level but also continues to trade beneath all major moving averages, signaling that the medium-term trend has turned decisively bearish. Until the market can reclaim the $72,000 region, any rally is likely to be viewed as a corrective rebound within a broader downtrend.

SELL BTC-USDT

EXP

PENDING

66650.0

Entry Price

40265.0

79600.0

62948.9 +1442.0 +2.34%

Pips

PENDING

40265.0

Exit Price

66650.0

Entry Price

79600.0

Fundamentals

Bitcoin is currently trading around $62,702 and remains under sustained pressure following the breakdown of its long-term ascending trendline. The bullish structure that previously supported the market has been invalidated, while price action remains significantly below the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages, located near $72,520, $74,515, and $79,500 respectively. Together, these levels form a substantial overhead supply zone.

From a market-behavior perspective, capital continues to flow out of risk assets. As Bitcoin broke below major trend support, trend-following investors were forced to reduce exposure, while participants who accumulated positions at higher levels have increasingly shifted into defensive mode. Market sentiment has gradually transitioned from a “buy-the-dip” mentality to a “sell-the-rally” environment.

Momentum indicators reinforce this bearish outlook. The daily RSI remains near 30, indicating oversold conditions but showing no clear signs of bullish divergence. The Money Flow Index (MFI) is hovering around 20, suggesting that capital outflows remain persistent. Meanwhile, the MACD histogram continues to expand in negative territory, highlighting ongoing downside momentum.

It is important to note that oversold conditions do not automatically imply an imminent reversal. In strongly trending markets, assets can remain oversold for extended periods. Historical price action suggests that when an asset trades below all major moving averages simultaneously, the market often requires a prolonged period of consolidation and base-building before a sustainable trend reversal can occur.

The most significant development is not merely the decline in price, but the breakdown of the broader market structure.

Bitcoin's previous uptrend was supported by a sequence of higher lows and a rising trendline. That framework has now been decisively broken. For institutional investors, a breach of long-term trend support often signals a deterioration in the risk-reward profile, encouraging patience rather than aggressive dip-buying.

At the same time, the major moving averages are beginning to form a bearish alignment. As the 50-day moving average gradually trends lower toward the 100-day moving average, downside pressure could intensify further. Unless Bitcoin can reclaim the former trendline near $71,840, the current decline is more likely to represent the beginning of a larger corrective cycle rather than a temporary pullback.

From a sentiment perspective, the market has yet to experience the kind of panic-driven capitulation typically associated with major bottoms. While prices have already retreated significantly, investor sentiment has not yet reached the extreme pessimism often seen near the end of major bear phases, suggesting that the correction may still have room to run.

Bears Remain in Control After Key Trendline Breakdown, Deeper Declines May Follow_1

Technical Analysis

Technically, Bitcoin has completed a confirmed breakdown of its long-term ascending trendline and appears to have entered a new bearish channel.

In the near term, the monthly open-close region around $66,650 serves as the first resistance level. Should a rebound extend further, the former trendline near $71,840 is expected to act as a major defensive zone for sellers.

As long as Bitcoin remains below $71,840, the broader strategy favors selling rallies. Even a recovery toward the $72,500–$74,500 region would still place price beneath key moving-average resistance and would be unlikely to alter the prevailing bearish structure.

On the downside, sustained trading below $66,650 could pave the way for a retest of the psychological $60,000 level. A decisive break below that threshold would expose the market to further declines toward $58,000 and potentially lower levels.

Overall, the combination of a trendline breakdown, moving-average resistance, weakening momentum indicators, and persistent capital outflows continues to favor the bears. Until Bitcoin can reclaim the major supply zone overhead, the broader outlook remains decisively negative.

Trading Recommendation

Trade Direction: Sell

Entry Price: 66,500

Target Price: 40,265

Stop Loss: 79,600

Valid Until: 2026-07-08 23:55

Support Levels: 59,115, 52,513, 49,593

Resistance Levels: 66,641, 73,839, 79,552

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