Zinc Hits 4-week High

The strategy of Rio Tinto's new CEO "is evolutionary, not revolutionary," according to UBS analysts. In a note, they highlight the miner's plans to improve Ebitda by raising volumes and reducing costs. They say 2026 guidance is broadly as expected and don't expect a material change to earnings forecasts. The analysts reiterate a neutral rating on the stock. "In our opinion, the risk-reward for Rio is improving, with commodity prices supportive and operational performance improving." UBS raises its target to A$138 from A$130. Rio is down 1.5% in Sydney at A$138.45. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Rio Tinto's first investor briefing under new CEO Simon Trott broadly met market expectations, according to Barclays analysts. They say Trott's plans to make Rio "simpler" and "sharper" could result in 2030 Ebitda being roughly US$5 billion higher than Barclays has forecast, and about US$7 billion higher than market consensus. That said, "market expectations were arguably elevated in the run-in" to the briefing and "softer production guidance for 2026 versus consensus is likely to see near-term consensus estimates decline," the analysts say in a note to clients. Rio is down 1.4% in Sydney at A$138.62. (rhiannon.hoyle@wsj.com; @RhiannonHoyle)

Gold is likely to sustain its strong trend-like rally in 2026, UOB's Global Economics & Markets Research team says in a report. "The case for gold as a safe haven to diversify one's portfolio remains strong," UOB writes. There is still strong accumulation of gold inventory on key exchanges globally, while purchases of gold-ETFs remain strong. Expectations of a Fed rate cut next week is also a key near-term positive driver for the precious metal, UOB says. UOB maintains its positive outlook for gold and forecasts prices for 1Q, 2Q, 3Q, 4Q of 2026 at $4,300/oz, $4,400/oz, $4,500/oz and $4,600/oz, respectively. Spot gold is flat at $4,209.10/oz.(amanda.lee@wsj.com)

Indonesia's trade faces significant headwinds in 2026, UOB Kay Hian analyst Suryaputra Wijaksana writes in a research note. That stems from a global slowdown and protectionist policies targeting Indonesia's key exports, such as coal and palm oil. Efforts by India, a major buyer of palm oil, to reduce imports of the commodity, threaten Indonesia. However, these challenges could be partially offset by potential new trade agreements with the U.S. and demand from Europe, the analyst says. A tariff-free trade deal with the U.S. would provide a modest boost to noncommodity exports, he adds. (amanda.lee@wsj.com)

Iron ore prices are lower in early Asian trade, weighed by weak demand and strong supply. Demand for iron ore is getting more subdued while its supply remains at a high place, which have pressured prices, Baocheng Futures analysts write in a note. The most actively traded January iron ore contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange is 1.2% lower at CNY784.0 a ton. (jiahui.huang@wsj.com; @ivy_jiahuihuang)

Oil ticks down in Asia after settling higher overnight, but stays on track for a weekly gain. Geopolitical issues have supported prices over the week, with markets watching for supply risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela tensions. Hopes for a Federal Reserve rate cut next week add a tailwind, as cuts can bolster economic activity and energy demand, and soften the dollar, making dollar-denominated commodities cheaper. Stronger U.S. jobs data did little to shift expectations for a Fed cut, UOB analysts say. "Fed fund futures continue to suggest that a 25bp rate is fully priced in for the 10 December FOMC meeting," OCBC strategists say. Front-month WTI down 0.2% at $59.53/bbl; on track for a 1.6% weekly gain. Brent slips 0.1% to $63.18/bbl; on track for a 1.2% weekly gain. (fabiana.negrinochoa@wsj.com)