XRP at Risk of Support Vacuum That Can Erase 65% of Price, Bollinger Bands Warn

As Pakistan continues to deepen its involvement in the digital asset landscape, the country has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with crypto exchange Binance, aiming to explore the tokenization of up to $2 billion in sovereign bonds, treasury bills, and commodity reserves to enhance liquidity and attract foreign investors.

$2 Billion Asset Tokenization Initiative

According to Reuters, the agreement sets the stage for a potential collaboration focused on allowing the tokenization and blockchain-based distribution of various real-world assets (RWAs) held by the Pakistani government. 

These assets may include sovereign bonds, treasury bills, and a range of commodity reserves such as oil, gas, metals, and other raw materials. 

The country’s finance ministry, Muhammad Aurangzeb, indicated that while the initiative could involve assets valued at up to $2 billion, final approval is still pending. The goal is to improve liquidity, transparency, and access to international markets for these assets. 

Aurangzeb remarked that the memorandum of understanding signifies Pakistan’s commitment to a reform-oriented economic trajectory and establishes a long-term partnership with Binance.

Binance founder Changpeng Zhao expressed optimism about the agreement, calling it “a great signal for the global blockchain industry and for Pakistan.” He suggested that this partnership marks the beginning of a significant shift toward fully implementing the tokenisation initiative.

PVARA Provides Initial Clearance For Binance And HTX 

In addition to this MoU, Pakistan has granted initial clearance for Binance and cryptocurrency exchange HTX, to register with local regulators as part of their efforts to establish domestic subsidiaries. This step allows both companies to prepare applications for full exchange licenses. 

The Pakistan Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (PVARA) provided these early approvals after assessing the governance and compliance frameworks of both platforms.

Chairman Bilal bin Saqib indicated that these clearances initiate Pakistan’s phased licensing process, emphasizing that the strength of compliance will play a crucial role in determining which exchanges will proceed. 

This move comes as Pakistan accelerates its digital finance overhaul, which has included the formation of the Pakistan Crypto Council and the establishment of the PVARA, alongside the drafting of a formal licensing regime.

As Bitcoinist reported at the time, Pakistan’s growing involvement in digital assets drew the attention of industry leaders such as Michael Saylor, co-founder of the Bitcoin proxy firm Strategy, who praised the country’s efforts and described it as a sign that the country understands how to handle this new market. 

Notably, Pakistan ranks as the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency market by retail activity, according to Saqib. The government is also planning a pilot program for a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and a comprehensive Virtual Assets Act.

At the time of writing, the exchange’s native cryptocurrency, Binance Coin (BNB), is trading at $878, down 35% from all-time highs just above $1,369.

Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Ethereum is trading above the $3,200 level as bulls attempt to push the price back toward higher resistance zones, but market sentiment remains fragile. Fear and uncertainty continue to dominate as several analysts warn that the broader trend may still point toward a potential bear market. Yet, beneath the volatile price action, key on-chain data is revealing a development that could shape Ethereum’s next major phase.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, a historic signal tied to the realized price of whales holding more than 100,000 ETH has emerged once again. This metric, which tracks the average cost basis of the largest holders, has only been tested a handful of times over the past five years.

Each instance occurred during decisive turning points in Ethereum’s macro trend. Whenever ETH approached or traded near this realized price, it signaled either the exhaustion of a deep downtrend or the beginning of a strong recovery phase.

Today, Ethereum is once again hovering near this critical threshold. With analysts divided and sentiment weakening, the whale realized price has become one of the most important indicators to monitor. Whether ETH bounces or breaks here may determine the direction of the next major trend cycle.

Whale Realized Price as a Cycle-Defining Threshold

The CryptoQuant report highlights the significance of Ethereum’s proximity to the realized price of whales holding at least 100,000 ETH. According to the analysis, ETH has traded very close to this level only four times in the last five years.

Two of those instances occurred during the capitulation phase of the 2022 bear market, when selling pressure peaked, and long-term confidence was severely tested. The other two have happened this year, underscoring how unusual and cycle-defining the current environment has become.

What makes this metric particularly important is its historical reliability. In the past five years, Ethereum has never traded below the realized price of these mega-whales. This level has consistently acted as a structural floor, signaling areas where the largest and most sophisticated holders refuse to sell at a loss. Their behavior often marks moments of deep undervaluation or macro exhaustion within the market.

Today, that realized price sits near the $2,500 range, placing Ethereum within striking distance of a level that has repeatedly separated long-term accumulation zones from full-scale trend reversals. If ETH holds above this threshold, it would reinforce the idea that large holders still see long-term value—despite fear dominating broader market sentiment.

Ethereum Attempts Recovery but Faces Major Overhead Barriers

Ethereum’s daily chart shows a market attempting recovery, yet still constrained by significant structural resistance. After rebounding from the sub-$2,900 zone, ETH has reclaimed the $3,200 level and is currently trading near $3,238. While this bounce reflects short-term strength, the broader trend remains fragile.

The price is encountering the 50-day moving average, which has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the decline from September’s peak. ETH briefly pierced above it but failed to secure a strong close, signaling hesitation from buyers.

The 100-day and 200-day moving averages remain well above the current price, reinforcing that Ethereum is still operating beneath major trend markers. These moving averages are likely to form an overhead cluster of resistance between $3,400 and $3,600—an area where sellers previously overwhelmed bullish attempts.

Structurally, ETH is forming a potential higher low, but it has not yet produced a higher high—an essential condition for confirming a trend reversal. A clean breakout above $3,350 would strengthen bullish momentum. Conversely, losing $3,150 risks reopening a path toward $3,000 and potentially retesting deeper support levels.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, has broadened support for USD1, the stablecoin tied to World Liberty Financial and US President Donald Trump’s crypto ventures, reports disclosed. The exchange added new spot pairs including ETH/USD1, SOL/USD1 and BNB/USD1, and enabled fee-free swaps between USD1 and other major stablecoins.

Binance Will Shift Collateral Into USD1

The exchange will convert all collateral backing its Binance-Peg BUSD (B-Token) into USD1 at a 1:1 ratio, a process the company said should be completed within one week. This change means USD1 is being folded into its internal collateral and liquidity systems rather than remaining only a tradable token.

Market Reaction And Liquidity Effects

Traders reacted quickly. Price moves in BNB and other tokens showed more buying interest after the announcement. Market data snapshots suggested a short-term uptick in BNB as liquidity and trading routes were expanded by the new USD1 pairs. Reports put the token’s wider market use and the platform’s zero-fee swaps as the likely drivers.

Backing, Size, And Recent Deals

According to public filings and market trackers, USD1 is backed by US Treasury bills, cash and equivalents and is redeemable at a one-for-one rate with the dollar.

The stablecoin has grown quickly and is now listed among the larger stablecoins by market cap, with figures around $2.7 billion cited in recent summaries. Reports have also linked USD1 to a major Abu Dhabi investment that used the token for a $2 billion deal. Political Context And Scrutiny

These commercial moves come after a politically charged episode: Trump granted a pardon earlier this year to Binance’s former CEO, an action that critics say raises questions about ties between Binance and the Trump family’s crypto interests.

That sequence of events has drawn scrutiny from lawmakers and commentators, who are asking for more transparency around the deals and any possible conflicts of interest.

Company spokespeople have issued short statements denying that any political favors were sought or exchanged to secure deals. Binance said its public notices focused on product rollouts, trading schedules and incentives like zero fees for certain users, while World Liberty Financial emphasized the reserve backing behind USD1.

Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

SHIB is seated in an uncomfortable but intriguing position. It is obvious that prices are not rising. All of the major moving averages aggressively cap the daily chart's extended downward trend, which has lower highs and lower lows. The 100 and 50 EMAs continue to slope downward, serving as dynamic resistance, while the 200 EMA is still well above. It is premature to discuss a trend reversal before at least the 50 EMA has recovered.

Shiba Inu's short-term trend

However, the price is no longer falling. We are currently witnessing compression. By creating a shallow ascending structure at the bottom, SHIB has created a short-term hybrid of a descending range and falling wedge. This area usually marks the beginning of a relief rally or a sideways market bleed before another leg down. Chart by TradingView">

Momentum indicators show this uncertainty. The RSI is stuck in the middle of the 40s, displaying neither strength nor panic. Although there are still sellers, they are no longer as aggressive.

Shiba Inu flows

On-chain flows are the crucial part. A one-day net exchange outflow of about 192.6 billion SHIB is not insignificant. That is a significant withdrawal of liquidity from exchanges, and it usually indicates transfers to cold storage or accumulation rather than getting ready to sell. In the past, sustained rallies on SHIB have only occurred after several days of negative exchange netflow. This is consistent with that early pattern.

What matters is the context. The price was still low when this outflow took place. This implies that instead of chasing candles, buyers are quietly absorbing supply. Although it lessens the pressure to sell right away, there is no assurance of an increase.

The likelihood of a brief bounce or squeeze rises if this behavior persists into the weekend, particularly if overall market conditions do not worsen. The primary invalidation is clear. The bullish implications of the outflow would be negated by a clear breakdown below the present consolidation base.

On the plus side, SHIB must recover and maintain the 50 EMA. Any higher move would still be a countertrend rally without that.

In summary, SHIB is not yet bullish, but it is also no longer blaringly weak. Instead of capitulation, the exchange outflow points to astute money positioning. A relief rally is possible if volume increases and price does the same. If not, more sideways movement should be anticipated before the market makes a move.

XRP has been under clear pressure in recent sessions, sliding toward its lowest price of the year as the broader crypto market continues to absorb heavy selling. Sentiment remains fragile, and many traders have shifted into defensive positioning while awaiting clearer macro signals.

According to a new report from CryptoQuant, however, the underlying picture is more complex than the price chart suggests. Despite the short-term decline, XRP whales are becoming increasingly active, showing no hesitation in trading and accumulating even as retail participation weakens.

This divergence between whale behavior and market sentiment is noteworthy. Historically, XRP’s most significant recoveries have begun during phases of deep pessimism, when large holders quietly build exposure rather than chase rallies.

The latest data confirms this pattern: while price approaches yearly lows, whale-driven transaction volume has risen, signaling that high-value wallets are repositioning rather than exiting.

Whale Accumulation and CVD Shift Signal a Potential XRP Bottom

The CryptoQuant report highlights that the recent surge in whale activity follows a pattern often observed during market bottoming phases. Large holders rarely accumulate aggressively during strong uptrends; instead, they tend to build positions quietly during periods of weakness, when sentiment is poor, and prices are depressed.

Their willingness to buy in the current environment—while XRP trades near yearly lows—suggests strategic positioning rather than speculative momentum chasing.

This behavior is typically interpreted as a pre-rally signal. When whales accumulate into weakness, it indicates confidence that current prices offer value and that the downside may be limited. Historically, such phases have preceded meaningful upside moves in XRP, as whale accumulation often absorbs available sell pressure and stabilizes market structure.

Supporting this view, the report also points to a notable shift in the XRP Spot Taker CVD, which has turned taker-buy dominant. This means that aggressive buyers are now driving more of the executed volume, reflecting strengthening demand in real time. A taker-buy dominant CVD often emerges before sustained rallies, as it highlights increasing willingness among market participants to buy at the ask rather than wait for dips.

Together, rising whale accumulation and a bullish CVD trend paint an increasingly constructive backdrop for XRP’s medium-term outlook.

Price Analysis: Testing Yearly Lows as Structure Weakens

XRP continues to trade near its yearly lows, with the chart showing a clear deterioration in trend structure. Price remains pinned below all major moving averages—the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day—indicating that bullish momentum has not yet returned. The persistent rejection at the 50-day moving average throughout November and December highlights the strength of overhead resistance and the absence of sustained buying pressure from the broader market.

The $2.00 region, now acting as a key horizontal support, has been tested multiple times over the past month. Each retest shows reduced volatility, suggesting that sellers are no longer driving aggressive breakdown attempts. But demand remains too weak to generate a meaningful rebound. A decisive loss of this level could open the door toward the $1.80–$1.90 support zone. XRP previously consolidated during the early stages of the 2025 rally.

Volume also confirms the broader downtrend. Selling spikes stand out noticeably, whereas buy-side volume remains muted. This imbalance reinforces the prevailing bearish structure, even as whale accumulation begins to appear on-chain.

For XRP to shift out of this downtrend, bulls must reclaim the 50-day moving average and produce higher lows. Until then, the chart signals continued caution. Whale activity must begin translating into visible spot demand, or the risk skews to the downside.

Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com