Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first 'red' October in 8 years

Cointelegraph

Key points:

Bitcoin is on track for one of its worst October performances since 2013.
Previous bull market years offered a minimum of 40% gains.
The Federal Reserve may offer a last-minute reprieve at next week’s meeting.

Bitcoin “Uptober” hangs in the balance as price threatens to print the first “red” October since 2018.

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows that at current prices, is 2.3% below its monthly starting level.

Bearish October hinges on 4% BTC price loss

October 2025 has disappointed Bitcoin bulls so far, as an early surge to new all-time highs quickly turned into a liquidation nightmare.

Now acting in a narrow range between around $107,000 and $111,500, the BTC price has much ground to make up by the monthly candle close.

CoinGlass demonstrates just how far behind the market now is: the average upside for October since 2013 has been 20%, which would put Bitcoin at over $130,000.

Alternatively, only needs to end October 4% lower to seal its worst performance in 12 years.

Rekt Fencer
@rektfencer
THIS IS THE WORST UPTOBER EVER.
The only worse one was 2014 (-13%).
2013: +60%
2017: +50%
2021: +40%
2025: -4%
Bad Uptober usually means one thing: MOONVEMBER. pic.twitter.com/6BMrNp4afD
Oct 23, 2025

The picture is particularly bad for a bull market year — in 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin gained at least 40% in October.

Its weakest tenth month of the year was 2014, with a 13% downside.

Now or never for “Uptober” reclaim

Meanwhile, fresh data from network economist Timothy Peterson puts 2025 BTC price action into perspective.

The latest bull market stands out from the rest, charts uploaded to X this week show — but not in the way that bulls would like.

At the start of the month, however, Peterson observed that the bulk of “Uptober” upside tends to occur in the second half.

“60% of Bitcoin's full-year performance occurs after October 3rd,” he added in prior research from September.

News that the US Federal Reserve could signal the end of quantitative tightening (QT) at its Oct. 29 meeting could provide a “huge signal” for markets, Peterson said.

As Cointelegraph reported, expectations are that the Fed will lower interest rates despite a lack of inflation data, pointing to more favorable conditions for crypto and risk assets going forward.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

Risk Warnings and Disclaimers

You understand and acknowledge that there is a high degree of risk involved in trading. Following any strategies or investment methods may lead to potential losses. The content on the site is provided by our contributors and analysts for information purposes only. You are solely responsible for determining whether any trading assets, securities, strategy, or any other product is suitable for investing based on your own investment objectives and financial situation.

Risk Disclosure

The risk of loss in trading financial instruments such as stocks, FX, commodities, futures, bonds, ETFs and crypto can be substantial. You may sustain a total loss of the funds that you deposit with your broker. Therefore, you should carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources.

No decision to invest should be made without thoroughly conducting due diligence by yourself or consulting with your financial advisors. Our web content might not suit you since we don't know your financial conditions and investment needs. Our financial information might have latency or contain inaccuracy, so you should be fully responsible for any of your trading and investment decisions. The company will not be responsible for your capital loss.

Without getting permission from the website, you are not allowed to copy the website's graphics, texts, or trademarks. Intellectual property rights in the content or data incorporated into this website belong to its providers and exchange merchants.

Recent Searches

Top Searches

Markets

Analysis

User

24/7

Economic Calendar

Education

Data

Worst Uptober ever? Bitcoin price risks first 'red' October in 8 years

Risk Disclosure