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Douglas Elliman Inc. is expected to deliver a year-over-year increase in earnings on higher revenues when it reports results for the quarter ended June 2024. This widely-known consensus outlook gives a good sense of the company's earnings picture, but how the actual results compare to these estimates is a powerful factor that could impact its near-term stock price.
The stock might move higher if these key numbers top expectations in the upcoming earnings report. On the other hand, if they miss, the stock may move lower.
While management's discussion of business conditions on the earnings call will mostly determine the sustainability of the immediate price change and future earnings expectations, it's worth having a handicapping insight into the odds of a positive EPS surprise.
Zacks Consensus Estimate
This company is expected to post quarterly loss of $0.02 per share in its upcoming report, which represents a year-over-year change of +66.7%.
Revenues are expected to be $282.43 million, up 2.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Estimate Revisions Trend
The consensus EPS estimate for the quarter has been revised 50% lower over the last 30 days to the current level. This is essentially a reflection of how the covering analysts have collectively reassessed their initial estimates over this period.
Investors should keep in mind that the direction of estimate revisions by each of the covering analysts may not always get reflected in the aggregate change.
Earnings Whisper
Estimate revisions ahead of a company's earnings release offer clues to the business conditions for the period whose results are coming out. Our proprietary surprise prediction model -- the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) -- has this insight at its core.
The Zacks Earnings ESP compares the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarter; the Most Accurate Estimate is a more recent version of the Zacks Consensus EPS estimate. The idea here is that analysts revising their estimates right before an earnings release have the latest information, which could potentially be more accurate than what they and others contributing to the consensus had predicted earlier.
Thus, a positive or negative Earnings ESP reading theoretically indicates the likely deviation of the actual earnings from the consensus estimate. However, the model's predictive power is significant for positive ESP readings only.
A positive Earnings ESP is a strong predictor of an earnings beat, particularly when combined with a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold). Our research shows that stocks with this combination produce a positive surprise nearly 70% of the time, and a solid Zacks Rank actually increases the predictive power of Earnings ESP.
Please note that a negative Earnings ESP reading is not indicative of an earnings miss. Our research shows that it is difficult to predict an earnings beat with any degree of confidence for stocks with negative Earnings ESP readings and/or Zacks Rank of 4 (Sell) or 5 (Strong Sell).
How Have the Numbers Shaped Up for Douglas Elliman Inc.
For Douglas Elliman Inc.The Most Accurate Estimate is the same as the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggesting that there are no recent analyst views which differ from what have been considered to derive the consensus estimate. This has resulted in an Earnings ESP of 0%.
On the other hand, the stock currently carries a Zacks Rank of #5.
So, this combination makes it difficult to conclusively predict that Douglas Elliman Inc. Will beat the consensus EPS estimate.
Does Earnings Surprise History Hold Any Clue?
While calculating estimates for a company's future earnings, analysts often consider to what extent it has been able to match past consensus estimates. So, it's worth taking a look at the surprise history for gauging its influence on the upcoming number.
For the last reported quarter, it was expected that Douglas Elliman Inc. Would post a loss of $0.02 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.28, delivering a surprise of -1,300%.
Over the last four quarters, the company has beaten consensus EPS estimates two times.
Bottom Line
An earnings beat or miss may not be the sole basis for a stock moving higher or lower. Many stocks end up losing ground despite an earnings beat due to other factors that disappoint investors. Similarly, unforeseen catalysts help a number of stocks gain despite an earnings miss.
That said, betting on stocks that are expected to beat earnings expectations does increase the odds of success. This is why it's worth checking a company's Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank ahead of its quarterly release. Make sure to utilize our Earnings ESP Filter to uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they've reported.
Douglas Elliman Inc. Doesn't appear a compelling earnings-beat candidate. However, investors should pay attention to other factors too for betting on this stock or staying away from it ahead of its earnings release.
Expected Results of an Industry Player
Another stock from the Zacks Real Estate - Operations industry, Newmark Group , is soon expected to post earnings of $0.22 per share for the quarter ended June 2024. This estimate indicates a year-over-year change of +22.2%. Revenues for the quarter are expected to be $635.1 million, up 8.4% from the year-ago quarter.
Over the last 30 days, the consensus EPS estimate for Newmark Group has been revised 3.5% up to the current level. Nevertheless, the company now has an Earnings ESP of 2.33%, reflecting a higher Most Accurate Estimate.
When combined with a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy), this Earnings ESP indicates that Newmark Group will most likely beat the consensus EPS estimate. The company could not beat consensus EPS estimates in any of the last four quarters.
Stay on top of upcoming earnings announcements with the Zacks Earnings Calendar.
Zacks Investment Research
Shares of Saia, Inc. fell sharply during Friday's session after the company reported worse-than-expected second-quarter financial results.
Saia reported quarterly earnings of $3.83 per share which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $4.00 per share. The company reported quarterly sales of $823.24 million which missed the analyst consensus estimate of $826.55 million, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Saia shares dipped 18.6% to $398.01 on Friday.
Here are some other stocks moving in today’s mid-day session.
Gainers
Losers
Now Read This:
© 2024 Benzinga.com. Benzinga does not provide investment advice. All rights reserved.
Momentum investing is all about the idea of following a stock's recent trend, which can be in either direction. In the 'long' context, investors will essentially be "buying high, but hoping to sell even higher." And for investors following this methodology, taking advantage of trends in a stock's price is key; once a stock establishes a course, it is more than likely to continue moving in that direction. The goal is that once a stock heads down a fixed path, it will lead to timely and profitable trades.
While many investors like to look for momentum in stocks, this can be very tough to define. There is a lot of debate surrounding which metrics are the best to focus on and which are poor quality indicators of future performance. The Zacks Momentum Style Score, part of the Zacks Style Scores, helps address this issue for us.
Below, we take a look at Newmark Group , which currently has a Momentum Style Score of B. We also discuss some of the main drivers of the Momentum Style Score, like price change and earnings estimate revisions.
It's also important to note that Style Scores work as a complement to the Zacks Rank, our stock rating system that has an impressive track record of outperformance. Newmark Group currently has a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy). Our research shows that stocks rated Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) and #2 (Buy) and Style Scores of A or B outperform the market over the following one-month period.
You can see the current list of Zacks #1 Rank Stocks here
Set to Beat the Market?
In order to see if NMRK is a promising momentum pick, let's examine some Momentum Style elements to see if this provider of commercial real estate services holds up.
A good momentum benchmark for a stock is to look at its short-term price activity, as this can reflect both current interest and if buyers or sellers currently have the upper hand. It is also useful to compare a security to its industry, as this can help investors pinpoint the top companies in a particular area.
For NMRK, shares are up 5.16% over the past week while the Zacks Real Estate - Operations industry is flat over the same time period. Shares are looking quite well from a longer time frame too, as the monthly price change of 23.13% compares favorably with the industry's 1.35% performance as well.
While any stock can see a spike in price, it takes a real winner to consistently outperform the market. Shares of Newmark Group have increased 23.75% over the past quarter, and have gained 81.08% in the last year. In comparison, the S&P 500 has only moved 7.34% and 19.81%, respectively.
Investors should also pay attention to NMRK's average 20-day trading volume. Volume is a useful item in many ways, and the 20-day average establishes a good price-to-volume baseline; a rising stock with above average volume is generally a bullish sign, whereas a declining stock on above average volume is typically bearish. NMRK is currently averaging 1,065,243 shares for the last 20 days.
Earnings Outlook
The Zacks Momentum Style Score encompasses many things, including estimate revisions and a stock's price movement. Investors should note that earnings estimates are also significant to the Zacks Rank, and a nice path here can be promising. We have recently been noticing this with NMRK.
Over the past two months, 1 earnings estimate moved higher compared to none lower for the full year. These revisions helped boost NMRK's consensus estimate, increasing from $1.12 to $1.13 in the past 60 days. Looking at the next fiscal year, 1 estimate has moved upwards while there have been no downward revisions in the same time period.
Bottom Line
Taking into account all of these elements, it should come as no surprise that NMRK is a #2 (Buy) stock with a Momentum Score of B. If you've been searching for a fresh pick that's set to rise in the near-term, make sure to keep Newmark Group on your short list.
Zacks Investment Research
Here at Zacks, our focus is on the proven Zacks Rank system, which emphasizes earnings estimates and estimate revisions to find great stocks. Nevertheless, we are always paying attention to the latest value, growth, and momentum trends to underscore strong picks.
Looking at the history of these trends, perhaps none is more beloved than value investing. This strategy simply looks to identify companies that are being undervalued by the broader market. Value investors use a variety of methods, including tried-and-true valuation metrics, to find these stocks.
On top of the Zacks Rank, investors can also look at our innovative Style Scores system to find stocks with specific traits. For example, value investors will want to focus on the "Value" category. Stocks with high Zacks Ranks and "A" grades for Value will be some of the highest-quality value stocks on the market today.
One company to watch right now is Newmark Group . NMRK is currently sporting a Zacks Rank of #2 (Buy) and an A for Value. The stock is trading with P/E ratio of 9.62 right now. For comparison, its industry sports an average P/E of 15.80. Over the past 52 weeks, NMRK's Forward P/E has been as high as 10.49 and as low as 4.83, with a median of 8.31.
Value investors also love the P/S ratio, which is calculated by simply dividing a stock's price with the company's sales. Some people prefer this metric because sales are harder to manipulate on an income statement. This means it could be a truer performance indicator. NMRK has a P/S ratio of 0.85. This compares to its industry's average P/S of 1.69.
Finally, investors will want to recognize that NMRK has a P/CF ratio of 6.27. This metric focuses on a firm's operating cash flow and is often used to find stocks that are undervalued based on the strength of their cash outlook. This company's current P/CF looks solid when compared to its industry's average P/CF of 7.81. Over the past year, NMRK's P/CF has been as high as 13.42 and as low as 5, with a median of 7.04.
Value investors will likely look at more than just these metrics, but the above data helps show that Newmark Group is likely undervalued currently. And when considering the strength of its earnings outlook, NMRK sticks out at as one of the market's strongest value stocks.
Zacks Investment Research
Momentum investors typically don't time the market or "buy low and sell high." In other words, they avoid betting on cheap stocks and waiting long for them to recover. Instead, they believe that "buying high and selling higher" is the way to make far more money in lesser time.
Who doesn't like betting on fast-moving trending stocks? But determining the right entry point isn't easy. Often, these stocks lose momentum once their valuation moves ahead of their future growth potential. In such a situation, investors find themselves loaded up on expensive shares with limited to no upside or even a downside. So, going all-in on momentum could be risky at times.
It could be safer to invest in bargain stocks that have been witnessing price momentum recently. While the Zacks Momentum Style Score (part of the Zacks Style Scores system), which pays close attention to trends in a stock's price or earnings, is pretty useful in identifying great momentum stocks, our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen comes handy in spotting fast-moving stocks that are still attractively priced.
There are several stocks that currently pass through the screen and Newmark Group is one of them. Here are the key reasons why this stock is a great candidate.
A dash of recent price momentum reflects growing interest of investors in a stock. With a four-week price change of 23.1%, the stock of this provider of commercial real estate services is certainly well-positioned in this regard.
While any stock can see a spike in price for a short period, it takes a real momentum player to deliver positive returns for a longer time frame. NMRK meets this criterion too, as the stock gained 23.8% over the past 12 weeks.
Moreover, the momentum for NMRK is fast paced, as the stock currently has a beta of 2.02. This indicates that the stock moves 102% higher than the market in either direction.
Given this price performance, it is no surprise that NMRK has a Momentum Score of B, which indicates that this is the right time to enter the stock to take advantage of the momentum with the highest probability of success.
In addition to a favorable Momentum Score, an upward trend in earnings estimate revisions has helped NMRK earn a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). Our research shows that the momentum-effect is quite strong among Zacks Rank #1 and #2 stocks. That's because as covering analysts raise their earnings estimates for a stock, more and more investors take an interest in it, helping its price race to keep up. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy) stocks here
Most importantly, despite possessing fast-paced momentum features, NMRK is trading at a reasonable valuation. In terms of Price-to-Sales ratio, which is considered as one of the best valuation metrics, the stock looks quite cheap now. NMRK is currently trading at 0.85 times its sales. In other words, investors need to pay only 85 cents for each dollar of sales.
So, NMRK appears to have plenty of room to run, and that too at a fast pace.
In addition to NMRK, there are several other stocks that currently pass through our 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen. You may consider investing in them and start looking for the newest stocks that fit these criteria.
This is not the only screen that could help you find your next winning stock pick. Based on your personal investing style, you may choose from over 45 Zacks Premium Screens that are strategically created to beat the market.
However, keep in mind that the key to a successful stock-picking strategy is to ensure that it produced profitable results in the past. You could easily do that with the help of the Zacks Research Wizard. In addition to allowing you to backtest the effectiveness of your strategy, the program comes loaded with some of our most successful stock-picking strategies.
Click here to sign up for a free trial to the Research Wizard today.
Zacks Investment Research
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