Investing.com -- BMW shares slid about 4% this week after comments at the IAA auto show raised concerns over tariffs, dealer compensation in China and weak sales in the company’s largest market.
BMW said group volumes rose 2% year-to-date through August, with growth of 6% outside China, led by strong demand in Europe and the United States.
But China volumes were down 16% over the same period, despite easier comparisons from last year when the company dealt with a brake warranty issue.
“Extrapolating at around the YTD run rate would make it difficult to narrow the FY25 China volume decline to a single digit percentage figure,” analysts wrote.
Barclays noted that pricing in China weakened again in August, forcing BMW to compensate dealers in the second and fourth quarters.
Tariffs added to the pressure. BMW had assumed earlier this year that a resolution on U.S.-EU duties would reduce costs, but it has continued to pay 27.5% into the U.S. and 10% into Europe since August.
“The indication at H1 stage that Q2 EBIT margin would be the trough for 2025 was based on assumptions that tariffs would be resolved, a certain level of China performance, and no dealer compensations in China — with all three aspects now weaker than assumed,” Barclays said.
BMW confirmed it had passed peak capital expenditure in 2024 and expects a sizeable reduction in spending to support free cash flow.
The carmaker reiterated its 2025 automotive EBIT margin guidance of 5-7%, with a longer-term goal of 8-10% tied to the rollout of its Neue Klasse electric vehicles.
Barclays said the market’s reaction reflected “downside risk to earnings estimates and guidance, ceteris paribus,” with BMW’s drop far exceeding the broader European auto sector.








