What happens to Satoshi’s 1M Bitcoin if quantum computers go live?

Cointelegraph

Realio Network / Tether

Why Satoshi’s wallet is a prime quantum target

Satoshi’s 1.1-million-BTC wallet is increasingly viewed as a potential quantum vulnerability as researchers assess how advancing computing power could affect early Bitcoin addresses.

Satoshi Nakamoto’s estimated 1.1 million Bitcoin is often described as the crypto world’s ultimate “lost treasure.” It sits on the blockchain like a dormant volcano, a digital ghost ship that has not seen an onchain transaction since its creation. This massive stash, worth approximately $67 billion-$124 billion at current market rates, has become a legend.

But for a growing number of cryptographers and physicists, it is also viewed as a multibillion-dollar security risk. The threat is not a hacker, a server breach or a lost password; it is the emergence of an entirely new form of computation: quantum computing.

As quantum machines move from theoretical research labs to powerful working prototypes, they pose a potential threat to existing cryptographic systems. This includes the encryption that protects Satoshi’s coins, the wider Bitcoin network and parts of the global financial infrastructure.

This is not a distant “what if.” The race to build both a quantum computer and a quantum-resistant defense is one of the most critical and well-funded technological efforts of our time. Here is what you need to know.

Why Satoshi’s early wallets are easy quantum targets

Most modern Bitcoin wallets hide the public key until a transaction occurs. Satoshi’s legacy pay-to-public-key (P2PK) addresses do not, and their public keys are permanently exposed onchain.

To understand the threat, it is important to recognize that not all Bitcoin addresses are created equal. The vulnerability lies in the type of address Satoshi used in 2009 and 2010.

Most Bitcoin today is held in pay-to-public-key-hash (P2PKH) addresses, which start with “1,” or in newer SegWit addresses that begin with “bc1.” In these address types, the blockchain does not store the full public key when coins are received; it stores only a hash of the public key, and the actual public key is revealed only when the coins are spent.

Think of it like a bank’s drop box. The address hash is the mail slot; anyone can see it and drop money in. The public key is the locked metal door behind the slot. No one can see the lock or its mechanism. The public key (the “lock”) is only revealed to the network at the one and only moment you decide to spend the coins, at which point your private key “unlocks” it.

Satoshi’s coins, however, are stored in much older P2PK addresses. In this legacy format, there is no hash. The public key itself, the lock in our analogy, is visibly and permanently recorded on the blockchain for everyone to see.

For a classical computer, this does not matter. It is still practically impossible to reverse-engineer a public key to find the corresponding private key. But for a quantum computer, that exposed public key is a detailed blueprint. It is an open invitation to come and pick the lock.

How Shor’s algorithm lets quantum machines break Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s security, Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA), relies on math that is computationally infeasible for classical computers to reverse. Shor’s algorithm, if run on a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, is designed to break that math.

Bitcoin’s security model is built on ECDSA. Its strength comes from a one-way mathematical assumption. It is easy to multiply a private key by a point on a curve to derive a public key, but it is essentially impossible to take that public key and reverse the process to find the private key. This is known as the Elliptic Curve Discrete Logarithm Problem.

A classical computer has no known way to “divide” this operation. Its only option is brute force, guessing every possible key. The number of possible keys is 2256, a number so vast it exceeds the number of atoms in the known universe. This is why Bitcoin is safe from all classical supercomputers on Earth, now and in the future.

A quantum computer would not guess. It would calculate.

The tool for this is Shor’s algorithm, a theoretical process developed in 1994. On a sufficiently powerful quantum computer, the algorithm can use quantum superposition to find the mathematical patterns, specifically the period, hidden within the elliptic curve problem. It can take an exposed public key and, in a matter of hours or days, reverse-engineer it to find the single private key that created it.

An attacker would not need to hack a server. They could simply harvest the exposed P2PK public keys from the blockchain, feed them into a quantum machine, and wait for the private keys to be returned. Then they could sign a transaction and move Satoshi’s 1.1 million coins.

Did you know? It is estimated that breaking Bitcoin’s encryption would require a machine with about 2,330 stable logical qubits. Because current qubits are noisy and error-prone, experts believe a fault-tolerant system would need to combine more than 1 million physical qubits just to create those 2,330 stable ones.

How close are we to a Q-Day?

Firms like Rigetti and Quantinuum are racing to build a cryptographically relevant quantum computer, and the timeline is shrinking from decades to years.

“Q-Day” is the hypothetical moment when a quantum computer becomes capable of breaking current encryption. For years, it was considered a distant “10-20-year” problem, but that timeline is now rapidly compressing.

The reason we need 1 million physical qubits to get 2,330 logical ones is quantum error correction. Qubits are incredibly fragile. They are noisy and sensitive to even slight vibrations, temperature changes or radiation, which can cause them to decohere and lose their quantum state, leading to errors in calculation.

To perform a calculation as complex as breaking ECDSA, you need stable logical qubits. To create a single logical qubit, you may need to combine hundreds or even thousands of physical qubits into an error-correcting code. This is the system’s overhead for maintaining stability.

We are in a rapidly accelerating quantum race.

Companies such as Quantinuum, Rigetti and IonQ, along with tech giants such as Google and IBM, are publicly pursuing aggressive quantum roadmaps.
Rigetti, for example, remains on track to reach a 1,000-plus qubit system by 2027.
This public-facing progress does not account for classified state-level research. The first nation to reach Q-Day could theoretically hold a master key to global financial and intelligence data.

The defense, therefore, must be built and deployed before the attack becomes possible.

Why millions of Bitcoin are exposed to quantum attacks

A 2025 Human Rights Foundation report found that 6.51 million BTC is in vulnerable addresses, with 1.72 million of it, including Satoshi’s, considered lost and unmovable.

Satoshi’s wallet is the biggest prize, but it is not the only one. An October 2025 report from the Human Rights Foundation analyzed the entire blockchain for quantum vulnerability.

The findings were stark:

6.51 million BTC is vulnerable to long-range quantum attacks.
This includes 1.72 million BTC in very early address types that are believed to be dormant or potentially lost, including Satoshi’s estimated 1.1 million BTC, many of which is in P2PK addresses.
An additional 4.49 million BTC is vulnerable but could be secured by migration, suggesting their owners are likely still able to act.

This 4.49 million BTC stash belongs to users who made a critical mistake: address reuse. They used modern P2PKH addresses, but after spending from them (which reveals the public key), they received new funds back to that same address. This was common practice in the early 2010s. By reusing the address, they permanently exposed their public key onchain, turning their modern wallet into a target just as vulnerable as Satoshi’s.

If a hostile actor were the first to reach Q-Day, the simple act of moving Satoshi’s coins would serve as proof of a successful attack. It would instantly show that Bitcoin’s fundamental security had been broken, triggering market-wide panic, a bank run on exchanges and an existential crisis for the entire crypto ecosystem.

Did you know? A common tactic being discussed is “harvest now, decrypt later.” Malicious actors are already recording encrypted data, such as internet traffic and blockchain public keys, with the intention of decrypting it years from now once they have a quantum computer.

How Bitcoin could switch to quantum-safe protection

The entire tech world is moving to new quantum-resistant standards. For Bitcoin, this would require a major network upgrade, or fork, to a new algorithm.

The cryptographic community is not waiting for this to happen. The solution is post-quantum cryptography (PQC), a new generation of encryption algorithms built on different and more complex mathematical problems that are believed to be secure against both classical and quantum computers.

Instead of elliptic curves, many PQC algorithms rely on structures such as lattice-based cryptography. The US National Institute of Standards and Technology has been leading this effort.

In August 2024, the National Institute of Standards and Technology published the first finalized PQC standards.
The key one for this discussion is ML-DSA (Module-Lattice-based Digital Signature Algorithm), part of the CRYSTALS-Dilithium standard.
The wider tech world is already adopting it. By late 2025, OpenSSH 10.0 had made a PQC algorithm its default, and Cloudflare reported that a majority of its web traffic is now PQC-protected.

For Bitcoin, the path forward would be a network-wide software update, almost certainly implemented as a soft fork. This upgrade would introduce new quantum-resistant address types, such as proposed “P2PQC” addresses. It would not force anyone to move. Instead, users could voluntarily send their funds from older, vulnerable addresses, such as P2PKH or SegWit, to these new secure ones. This approach would be similar to how the SegWit upgrade was rolled out.

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Bitcoin Heads Into Weekend Under Pressure as Price Tests Key Support Levels

Coinpedia

Realio Network / Tether

Bitcoin price slipped below $95,000 heading into the weekend, extending a weeklong pullback that has weighed on broader crypto sentiment. The decline marks BTC’s lowest level since May, with Ethereum and major altcoins also easing as liquidity thins and traders turn defensive.

The move places Bitcoin at a critical technical juncture, where the weekly close may determine whether the market stabilizes or slides deeper into correction.

BTC Approaches Major Support Cluster

Bitcoin is currently holding above a key support band between $93,900 and $92,800, an area that has acted as a structural base for much of the recent trend. A sustained move below this range would weaken the broader setup and expose the price to deeper downside levels.

A second liquidity pocket between $94,500 and $92,000 reinforces the importance of this lower zone, which traders are watching closely as the next potential line of defense.

Reclaiming $100K Would Signal Stabilization

On the upside, BTC faces immediate resistance at $100,300, a former support level that flipped to resistance earlier this week. A recovery above that threshold would be the first sign of short-term stabilization, with a broader resistance block between $101,600 and $106,300 coming into play afterward.

Market analysts note that a weekly close back above the $100,000 region would ease pressure on the chart and offer room for a relief bounce.

Momentum Indicators Present a Mixed Picture

Momentum signals remain split. The weekly RSI is forming a hidden bullish divergence, with price holding higher lows even as the indicator trends lower. Such a pattern can precede short-term rebounds, although confirmation typically requires a reclaim of resistance.

At the same time, sentiment remains cautious. BTC flows have slowed, leverage has reset, and weekend liquidity remains thin—conditions that often amplify volatility.

Weekend Focus: Weekly Close and Volume

With no major macro events scheduled, traders are likely to focus on technical levels and order-flow shifts. A decisive break below $93,900–$92,800 could trigger further selling, while holding this range through Sunday’s close would keep BTC’s broader structure intact.

Altcoin performance may also guide sentiment, particularly if Ethereum continues to track BTC’s weakness.

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Ethereum Hits ATH in Crucial Performance Metric

U.Today

Realio Network / Tether

Ethereum has hit a new all-time high (ATH) in a key performance index. As highlighted by an analyst in the crypto space, Joseph Young, the blockchain hit an ATH of 24,192 transactions per second (TPS). This represents the highest seven-day average TPS for Ethereum.

Ethereum's improved scalability and network efficiency

Notably, this transaction peak signals that the Ethereum blockchain is processing more requests than before. The development indicates that Ethereum is undergoing a major shift in its scalability and utility in the cryptocurrency space.

As highlighted by Young, this growth might be a result of the Ethereum network being considered a "world computer." The blockchain, which runs decentralized applications, is rapidly scaling and becoming more capable of handling large amounts of activity or transactions per second.

Joseph Young
@iamjosephyoung
gmgm ☕️
ethereum just hit an ALL-TIME HIGH in 7-day avg TPS.
its recent record peak: 24,192 TPS.
the world computer and decentralized economic engine is scaling exponentially. pic.twitter.com/hM3fh5shp4
Nov 15, 2025

The implication is that Ethereum’s increased utility could catalyze increased value gain. According to Young, Ethereum is the decentralized economic engine that powers a large amount of the global finance. It also supports huge application-based activity in the financial space.

The increased transactions highlight the benefits of the post-Dencun upgrade scalability for the Ethereum blockchain. For clarity, the upgrade was aimed at improving scalability and lowering transaction fees in the ecosystem.

Hence, the recent milestone of 24,192 TPS signals Ethereum’s role as a high-throughput economic engine capable of performing large volumes of transactions.

Some members of the community consider this an indication of exponential growth with a huge potential for the future of a decentralized economy. Many anticipate that this achievement could transform decentralization as new speeds are attained amid scaling in the network.

All eyes on Fusaka upgrade

Meanwhile, in the broader Ethereum space, the next major network upgrade, Fusaka, has been slated for early December. The Fusaka upgrade will enhance Ethereum’s scalability, user experience and security without sacrificing decentralization.

Many community members anticipate significant price growth for Ethereum after the Fusaka upgrade goes live in early December. The anticipation stems from the belief that the upgrade will trigger better adoption and network efficiency.

Ethereum, as of this writing, is changing hands at $3,153.25, which represents a 0.7% increase within the last 24 hours. The asset climbed from a low of $3,071.97 to hit an intraday peak of $3,252.66 before settling at the current price level.

This volatility might account for the low trading volume. Ethereum’s volume has declined by 34.47% to $35.12 billion within the same time frame. Investors are reluctant to start accumulation amid bearish momentum in the market space.

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Bitcoin profit declines amid stabilization of altcoin profits: Glassnode

Crypto Briefing

Realio Network / Tether

Bitcoin profits are declining while altcoin profits stabilize during a deep capitulation phase, creating an unusual divergence between the two market segments, according to Glassnode.

The current market environment reflects continued pressure across crypto assets, with both Bitcoin and altcoins showing signs of capitulation rather than growth. However, the stabilization in altcoin profits contrasts with Bitcoin's ongoing decline.

Social media discussions highlight that most altcoins are underperforming, with only a small portion generating profits for investors. This underperformance has contributed to the stagnation in altcoin profits relative to Bitcoin's recent trajectory.

The divergence marks a shift from typical market patterns where Bitcoin and altcoins often move in similar directions during major market phases.

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2026 to Be Best Year for Ethereum Privacy, Here's Why

U.Today

Realio Network / Tether

Paul Brody, Ernst & Young's Global Blockchain leader and Enterprise Ethereum Alliance chairman, has shared his views on midterm prospects of Ethereum ecosystem privacy developments. He showcases the progress the most advanced privacy-centric EVM networks achieved in the last years.

Ethereum privacy design became 2000x more cost-effective, Ernst & Young's Paul Brody says

Modern privacy-oriented networks are processing shielded transactions unbelievably cheaper compared to prototypes demonstrated years ago.

Ethereum
@ethereum
0/ I believe that 2026 will be the golden year for Ethereum privacy.
That's especially true when it comes to enterprises.
Here’s how the Ethereum ecosystem is leading the way and why that matters for institutions.
A guest thread by @pbrody from @EYnews and @EntEthAlliance. pic.twitter.com/vCjdcFtsSX
Nov 13, 2025

For instance, Ernst & Young's Nightfall spends $0.05 for the same verification tooling that used to cost $100 in gas fees eight years ago, the platform's Global Blockchain Leader Paul Brody shared in a guest thread for Ethereum Foundation.

This is not an isolated example, he opines, as Aztec, COTI Network, Miden and other blockchains exploring zero-knowledge (ZK) computations also achieved notable traction in terms of how fast ZK-proofs are generated and how much gas they spend.

As a result, Brody expects the whole technology to become mainstream for users and, primarily, institutions, leveraging Ethereum computation resources in the coming months.

The whole mathematics of zero knowledge have improved at an immense speed. I’m confident that within 18-24 months, even relatively complex transactions will be cost efficient in high volumes for business users and consumers.

The result of this complex workload will be way more impressive for privacy compared to what permissioned blockchains achieved, as they still remain traceable to organizers of such private networks.

"Privacy and anonymity aren't the same thing"

At the same time, he stressed that the current privacy developments do not target anonymity — they are more focused on combating unfair competition than becoming obfuscated for regulators and researchers. The most crucial moments here might happen next year:

Nigthfall, Aztec and others are all deployed in test-net environment now and I believe that 2026 will be a golden year for Ethereum privacy for both consumers and business users

As U.Today previously reported, Ethereum's privacy remains one of the main narratives for the second largest blockchain in 2025.

In April 2025, Ethereum's co-founder Vitalik Buterin made headlines with a privacy road map, which includes both L1 and L2 changes focused on achieving the next level of privacy for EVM ecosystem networks.

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Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest Buys Circle, BitMine, and Bullish Shares Amid Market Dip

Coinpedia

Realio Network / Tether

Crypto markets continue to struggle, with Bitcoin slipping below $100,000 and altcoins taking a hit.

But Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest is using the dip as an opportunity. It has increased its holdings in BitMine Immersion Technologies, Circle and Bullish across several ETFs.

Ark Buys Bullish, BitMine and Circle Shares

On Friday, its ARK Fintech Innovation ETF (ARKF) added 18,089 shares of BitMine, ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) bought 34,637 shares, and the ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) picked up 116,681 shares, totaling 169,407 BitMine shares.

Moreover, the firm also increased its stake in Bullish, with ARKF buying 8,063 shares, ARKW adding 15,441, and ARKK taking 52,011 shares, totaling 75,515 shares for the day.

Ark Invest Tracker
@ArkkDaily
Here's every move Cathie Wood and Ark Invest made in the stock market today 11/14 pic.twitter.com/skV3MaYATk
Nov 15, 2025

Stocks Face Volatility

Notably, the accumulation came at a time when the stocks faced heavy selling pressure yesterday. Bullish is currently trading at $38.49, down 6% in the last 24 hours. BitMine is also down around 6%, trading at $34.40.

Crypto Buying Spree

This follows ARK Invest’s recent purchases of Circle’s stock as it slipped below the $90 mark. Over the past week, the firm has acquired a total of 542,269 shares, investing roughly $46 million. Circle is currently trading at $81.89, down 40% over the past month.

On November 13, it also bought 242,347 shares in BitMine and 177,480 shares in Bullish, spending $8.86 million and $7.28 million, respectively. These purchases were made across three of its exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Ark Invest Tracker
@ArkkDaily
Here's every move Cathie Wood and Ark Invest made in the stock market today 11/13 pic.twitter.com/kT31a9mzva
Nov 14, 2025

These moves show how Ark Invest is strategically buying the dips in crypto related stocks, despite the market volatility.

Circle Reports Strong Q3, BitMine Appoints New CEO

These investments come after Circle’s strong third-quarter earnings report. The company reported a 66% increase in total revenue and reserve income, reaching $740 million, while net income surged 202% to $214 million.

USDC in circulation also grew 108% year-over-year to $73.7 billion. Circle is also exploring the launch of a native token for its Arc blockchain.

Meanwhile, BitMine, the leading Ethereum treasury company, has appointed a new CEO. Chi Tsang will take over from Jonathan Bates, and the firm also added three new independent members to its board. BitMine currently holds over 3.5 million ETH, worth over $11 billion.

By increasing its position in Circle, BitMine, and Bullish, ARK Invest is showing that it believes in the long-term growth of the crypto and blockchain industry.

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'Behind XRP, Solana': ZEC Rally Has Nothing to Do With Retail, Data Says

U.Today

Realio Network / Tether

Zcash (ZEC), the largest privacy-centric cryptocurrency and the biggest surprise of 2025, has already outshined all competitors by growth rates — even those who renewed their ATHs in crucial metrics. At the same time, interest from retail users is yet to be seen, Delphi Digital data says.

Zcash (ZEC) crypto outshines all rivals, but retail interest is not there: Data

Zcash (ZEC), a flagship crypto of the Q4, 2025 privacy season, still has not caught mainstream attention. In Google Searches, the interest in ZEC's price is still lagging behind similar metrics for XRP and Solana , top-tier research platform Delphi Digital says in a report.

Delphi Digital
@Delphi_Digital
Zcash continues its dominant lead in the privacy sector.
While the privacy narrative has gained real adoption, ZEC has captured nearly all the upside with a 10x move from lows while other privacy tokens lag in comparison.
For example, TORN recently hit a new TVL all time high… pic.twitter.com/xnFQl81rFE
Nov 14, 2025

This imbalance is striking as Zcash (ZEC) is the absolute best performer amid all large-caps and mid-caps, while Solana and XRP are stagnating. Solana's price lost 28.16% in just one month and plunged to levels unseen since mid-June.

XRP, despite the successful launch of a spot XRP ETF in the U.S., is down by 7.71% in the last month. Last week, its price also dropped to $2.15, the lowest since June.

At the same time, both are significantly more popular on Google than ZEC, which is an indicator of retail's stance on the privacy coin's rally.

As a result, it looks like the marvelous Zcash (ZEC) price action is mostly driven by whales and large holders, not by the general public. Meanwhile, the general interest in crypto is at multi-year lows on Google Trends, which might also contribute to the strange picture of searches for altcoin prices.

Zcash (ZEC) price jumped by 20x in three months on anemic market

Zcash (ZEC), a fork of Bitcoin and one of the cypherpunks' privacy-focused cryptocurrencies — which means untraceable transactions — is the best performer of Q4, 2025. In just three months, it rocketed by 20x from $35 to over $700.

Today its price hit a local high at $718, which is close to an unbelievable nine-year record. However, ZEC's price still remains 90% down from its ATH.

To provide context, Bitcoin and Ethereum lost 14% and 22% in the last 30 days, respectively.

As U.Today previously covered, institutional investors are trying to benefit from the ZEC rally.

It is fueled by Winklevoss Capital's $59 million investments, Nasdaq-listed penny stock company Leap Therapeutics rebranded to Cypherpunk Technologies and the first-ever digital asset treasury company with ZCash (ZEC) holdings.

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